BuffaloRush Posted April 19, 2018 Posted April 19, 2018 Well there is just about one week to the 2018 NFL Draft where current GM Brandon Beane's fate very well could be decided. Now let's review the final drafts for the last two Bills GM's. Up first - GM Tom Donahoe who has a newly won Super Bowl ring with Philadelphia. * While this is very subjective, I am defining a "hit" as any player that reasonably performed at or above his draft status. As an example, a player like Paul Pozlusny becoming a solid starting LB as a 2nd round pick. A "miss" is the opposite - a player who performed under or well under their draft status. * If you draft a player in the first round and they are a marginal starter, I am defining that as a miss. * Also, if a player doesn't have a great career for the Bills, but then has a better career on another team that is not a miss in my opinion. We are dealing strictly on what the draft selections brought to the table for the Bills - not another team. Now if you recall, in 2001 Tom Donahoe and unprecedented amount of power, control, and money from owner Ralph Wilson who developed a habit of being tight with the pocket book strings. The unsuccessful tenure of Donahoe essentially swayed Ralph against ever hiring a GM from outside of the organization. But while Donahoe was not successful overall, let's see how he did in the draft. Before though, here are my current rankings: 1. John Butler: 38% 2. Russ Brandon: 28% 3. Marv Levy: 25% 4. Buddy Nix: 25% 5. Bill Polian: 23% 2001 Draft Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2001 1 Nate Clements 21 DB 2012 0 1 10 64 180 36 4.5 Ohio St. 2001 2 Aaron Schobel 46 DE 2009 0 2 8 61 133 3 78.0 TCU 2001 2 Travis Henry 58 RB 2007 0 1 4 41 90 0 1 0 0 1 1488 6086 38 141 951 2 Tennessee 2001 3 Ron Edwards 76 DT 2012 0 0 6 39 139 16.5 Texas A&M 2001 3 Jonas Jennings 95 T 2008 0 0 5 29 75 Georgia 2001 4 Brandon Spoon 110 LB 2001 0 0 1 5 14 2 North Carolina 2001 5 Marques Sullivan 144 G 2003 0 0 1 11 32 Illinois 2001 6 Tony Driver 178 DB 2002 0 0 0 0 11 Notre Dame 2001 6 Dan O'Leary 195 TE 2002 0 0 0 1 17 Notre Dame 2001 6 Jimmy Williams 196 DB 2006 0 0 0 9 80 3 1.0 Vanderbilt 2001 7 Reggie Germany 214 WR 2001 0 0 0 2 16 12 203 0 Ohio St. 2001 7 Tyrone Robertson 238 DT 2001 0 0 0 1 12 2.0 2001 was a very strong draft for TD. He was able to successfully hit on his first 5 picks. Clements and Schobel proved to be above average starters who many thought had potential to be among the best at their position. Travis Henry was extremely solid at RB, though fumbles and poor personal choices ended his career. In the 3rd round TD grabbed two starters in Ron Edwards and Jonas Jennings. The rest of the draft was hot garbage, though Marques Sullivan did end up starting the entire season in 2002. He gets a miss though as he was not good. Overall a very good draft Hits 5 Misses 7 Success: 42% 2002 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2002 1 Mike Williams 4 T 2009 0 0 3 25 59 Texas 2002 2 Josh Reed 36 WR 2009 0 0 3 28 115 14 57 0 311 3575 10 LSU 2002 2 Ryan Denney 61 DE 2010 0 0 2 24 113 2 44 2 23.5 BYU 2002 3 Coy Wire 97 DB 2010 0 0 1 16 127 5.0 Stanford 2002 5 Justin Bannan 139 DT 2013 0 0 3 36 163 1 6.5 Colorado 2002 6 Kevin Thomas 176 DB 2004 0 0 0 5 38 1 24 0 1 1.5 UNLV 2002 7 Mike Pucillo 215 G 2007 0 0 1 9 48 Auburn 2002 7 Rodney Wright 249 WR 0 0 0 Fresno St. 2002 7 Jarrett Ferguson 251 RB 0 0 0 Virginia Tech 2002 7 Dominique Stevenson 260 LB 2004 0 0 0 2 21 Tennessee 2002 This draft was very poor. Donahoe missed badly on the Mike Williams selection, though in his defense many other GM's would have made the mistake and William was seen as a "can't miss prospect." The rest of the draft is not impressive. Justin Bannan had a very decent career in the NFL, but not with the Bills, so he gets a Miss. In a move that will surprise many, I am giving Josh Reed a borderline hit. I remember him as not being very good, but when you look at his production the numbers don't like. He was a very decent slot WR: He had 50+ catches for nearly half of his career with the Bills I know I will get "Coy Wire was a hit" but he only started one season and played poorly. He was a decent ST'er but did not live up to his 3rd round status. Ditto for Mike Pucillo who was a below average starter for 1 terrible year. Bad draft. Hits: 1 Misses: 9 Success: 10% 2003 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2003 1 Willis McGahee 23 RB 2013 0 2 7 55 142 2095 8474 65 210 1339 5 Miami (FL) 2003 2 Chris Kelsay 48 DE 2012 0 0 8 47 147 3 32.5 Nebraska 2003 3 Angelo Crowell 94 LB 2007 0 0 3 19 65 5 7.0 Virginia 2003 4 Terrence McGee 111 DB 2012 0 1 6 48 122 17 3.0 NW State (LA) 2003 4 Sam Aiken 127 WR 2010 0 0 0 7 95 48 684 2 North Carolina 2003 5 Ben Sobieski 151 T 2003 0 0 0 0 1 Iowa 2003 6 Lauvale Sape 187 DT 2005 0 0 0 1 10 Utah 2003 7 Mario Haggan 228 LB 2012 0 0 2 21 132 1 9.0 Mississippi St. A much better effort from Donahoe. Many questioned the pick of an injured McGahee, though he had 3 strong years before the very bad trade to Baltimore. Chris Kelsay get's a very marginal hit. While he was never spectacular and very average, he did start for nearly 8 seasons. He was very Shaq Lawson like. McGee and Crowell were very good selections and competent starters for mid round selections. Finally Mario Haggan gets a hit for his contributions on Special Teams as a 7th round draft pick. This very well could be Donahoe's best draft and the highest success rate for hits and misses Hits: 5 Misses: 3 Success: 63% 2004 ear Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2004 1 Lee Evans 13 WR 2011 0 0 7 49 118 0 1 0 0 0 10 145 0 381 6008 43 Wisconsin 2004 1 J.P. Losman 22 QB 2011 0 0 2 19 45 564 952 6271 33 34 105 490 3 Tulane 2004 3 Tim Anderson 74 DT 2007 0 0 1 7 43 1.0 Ohio St. 2004 4 Tim Euhus 109 TE 2007 0 0 0 1 34 14 115 2 Oregon St. 2004 7 Dylan McFarland 207 T 2005 0 0 0 0 3 Montana 2004 7 Jonathan Smith 214 WR 2006 0 0 0 2 18 3 12 0 8 77 1 Georgia Tech This is the draft which ruined Tom Donahoe. He missed on nearly every pick, though I decided to give Lee Evans a hit. While his numbers are not specular, Lee was very underutilized in a poor offensive scheme with QB's who never should have been on the field. He had two very good years and a few other decent ones. Overall, I'm giving him a marginal hit. The rest are just hot garbage. Donahoe deserves an extra kick in the ass with this draft. It's heavily rumored that he had a deal to move up a few spots in the draft to select Big Ben Roethlisberger who he loved. At the last second he backed off only to have Pittsburgh grab in at #11. In a move of desperation he reached badly and traded up to draft the terrible QB known as JP Losman. This move screwed the franchise. Donahoe's success rate should be 0% Hits: 1 Misses: 5 Success: 17% EPIC MISS: 1 2005 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2005 2 Roscoe Parrish 55 WR 2012 0 0 0 14 90 1 1 3 0 0 14 71 1 134 1502 7 Miami (FL) 2005 3 Kevin Everett 86 TE 2007 0 0 0 0 17 2 4 0 Miami (FL) 2005 4 Duke Preston 122 C 2008 0 0 2 11 59 Illinois 2005 5 Eric King 156 DB 2010 0 0 0 4 63 Wake Forest 2005 6 Justin Geisinger 197 G 2008 0 0 0 0 6 Vanderbilt 2005 7 Lionel Gates 236 RB 2007 0 0 0 0 1 Louisville Ouch another very very poor draft from Tom. It's no wonder why this would be his last. With a very limited number of picks, Donahoe gave the Bills straight up garbage. Roscoe Parrish was an ill-advised reach in round 2 and couldn't stay on the field long enough to do anything. His 4th round selection of Duke Preston was his only hit - and it was very close.. Dukie was never a star by any means though he did start for two years - not bad for a 4th round pick. Overall: 12/36 Hits 12 Misses 24 Success Rate: 33% Donahoe was not a good GM and that can't be debated. He made many very poor decisions while running the team. However, compared to other GM's he did a fairly decent job with the draft and as you'll see below he hit on more selections that some of the other GM's. He had a few good drafts and a few bad ones, which by Bills standards is not that bad. Current Standings: 1. John Butler: 38% 2. Tom Donahoe: 33% 3. Russ Brandon: 28% 4. Marv Levy: 25% 5. Buddy Nix: 25% 6. Bill Polian: 23% 1
DrDawkinstein Posted April 19, 2018 Posted April 19, 2018 I wish I could get into this discussion, but it always comes back to how inconsistent and subjective your rating system is. And I dont want to have to nitpick when the issues should be obvious. So I'm just going to back away respectfully. Good idea, but questionable execution. 1 3
BuffaloRush Posted April 19, 2018 Author Posted April 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: I wish I could get into this discussion, but it always comes back to how inconsistent and subjective your rating system is. And I dont want to have to nitpick when the issues should be obvious. So I'm just going to back away respectfully. Good idea, but questionable execution. Thank you for your opinion but I strongly disagree. Please identify one player from this list that you feel is miscategorized? IMO and the opinions of many others, this list is pretty solid. 1
DrDawkinstein Posted April 19, 2018 Posted April 19, 2018 Just now, BuffaloRush said: Thank you for your opinion but I strongly disagree. Please identify one player from this list that you feel is miscategorized? IMO and the opinions of many others, this list is pretty solid. Ha! Ok, Trump. Many others? The list has been up for 15 minutes and Im the only one thats commented. You take yourself too seriously on this, dude. The issue is, when you have a couple percentage points making the difference between your GM rankings, one or two guys changed from hits to misses or vice versa can have a major effect. Here's a big inconsistency and one you even pointed out yourself, and then used your own bias to rationalize it and create the inconsistency: Coy Wire - Miss Lonnie Johnson, Sean Moran, Matt Stevens - Hits Now, I dont like Coy Wire either, but he was ST captain for multiple years and saw plenty of (too much) playing time. But if Moran or Stevens is a hit, so is Wire. Or they're all misses. Just an example. 1
BuffaloRush Posted April 19, 2018 Author Posted April 19, 2018 34 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: Ha! Ok, Trump. Many others? The list has been up for 15 minutes and Im the only one thats commented. You take yourself too seriously on this, dude. The issue is, when you have a couple percentage points making the difference between your GM rankings, one or two guys changed from hits to misses or vice versa can have a major effect. Here's a big inconsistency and one you even pointed out yourself, and then used your own bias to rationalize it and create the inconsistency: Coy Wire - Miss Lonnie Johnson, Sean Moran, Matt Stevens - Hits Now, I dont like Coy Wire either, but he was ST captain for multiple years and saw plenty of (too much) playing time. But if Moran or Stevens is a hit, so is Wire. Or they're all misses. Just an example. Right just one example - you are splitting hairs.
DrDawkinstein Posted April 19, 2018 Posted April 19, 2018 Just now, BuffaloRush said: Right just one example - you are splitting hairs. Dont be salty. You literally asked for one player from this list, so I gave you 1... and 3 more for comparison. I'll leave it at that.
KD in CA Posted April 19, 2018 Posted April 19, 2018 McGahee was one of the dumbest draft picks of all time. Donahoe should have been fired within 30 seconds of that pick being made.
BuffaloRush Posted April 19, 2018 Author Posted April 19, 2018 1 minute ago, KD in CA said: McGahee was one of the dumbest draft picks of all time. Donahoe should have been fired within 30 seconds of that pick being made. You can make the argument they didnt need him with Henry. But the bottom line is that he was a solid pick. 3 seasons with the Bills me had 1100, 1300, and 990 yards. He was a solid pick and Pro Bowl player
Sky Diver Posted April 19, 2018 Posted April 19, 2018 (edited) He disn’t build winning teams so he was a failure. Edited April 19, 2018 by Sky Diver
BuffaloRush Posted April 19, 2018 Author Posted April 19, 2018 20 minutes ago, Sky Diver said: He disn’t build winning teams so he was a failure. Fair enough... he did an ok job with the draft though.
Sky Diver Posted April 19, 2018 Posted April 19, 2018 (edited) Isn’t that like saying the mechanic deal a really good job of taking the motor apart, but he did a terrible job of putting it back together? In the end, the car won’t run. Edited April 19, 2018 by Sky Diver
mjt328 Posted April 19, 2018 Posted April 19, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said: Thank you for your opinion but I strongly disagree. Please identify one player from this list that you feel is miscategorized? IMO and the opinions of many others, this list is pretty solid. Like the other poster said, I think the general idea of these posts was interesting. And it obviously took a lot of work. But it's hard to take your conclusions seriously, considering how subjective your definition of a "hit" and a "miss" is. Maybe it would be more effective if you came up with a concrete baseline for what makes a player a "hit" - such as how many years they play in the NFL, how many games they start in the NFL, etc., etc. I also think a GM should get more credit for hitting on a Pro-Bowl talent like Aaron Schobel, than he does for hitting on a special teams guy like Mario Haggan. Maybe give picks a grade like A, B, C, D or F. When ranking Donahoe as a GM, you also need to consider that JP Losman cost two 1st Round Picks, and Drew Bledsoe cost another. Right now, your system seems to be some combination of how good the player was, against what round they were drafted in, with a dash of how long they actually played for Buffalo. Then everything boils down to nothing more than a percentage of successful picks. It's not really working.
Jay_Fixit Posted April 19, 2018 Posted April 19, 2018 Nice, the guy who doesn’t know the difference between a hit and a miss.
BuffaloBillyG Posted April 19, 2018 Posted April 19, 2018 1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said: Dont be salty. You literally asked for one player from this list, so I gave you 1... and 3 more for comparison. I'll leave it at that. You did in fact get sucked in again 1
Buftex Posted April 19, 2018 Posted April 19, 2018 (edited) No doubt he wasn't successful in the draft...nobody has been, since Butler. Go back and run your test for the other 31 teams in the leauge, I suspect that Donohoe will rank somewhere in the middle of the pack. As bad as he may have been in the draft, he did well with free agency. The draft is only part of it. I also think Wilson set the team back a decade, by firing him, without an adequate replacement. Love Marv Levy, but he was probably the worts GM of all...Donohoe wasn't always right, but he was agressive about trying to address team needs. 1 hour ago, KD in CA said: McGahee was one of the dumbest draft picks of all time. Donahoe should have been fired within 30 seconds of that pick being made. I kinda know what you mean, KD. He wasn't a real need (though he was drafted knowing the Travis Henry was one false move away from being a "former-Buffalo Bill"), but if you recall, McGahee was considered a "generational player" before that horrific injury. The injury hurt his speed, but he had a pretty solid career...if not as spectacular as was envisioned. It was a gamble of a pick...probably reckless...but I wouldn't say it ended up as a terrible pick. Edited April 19, 2018 by Buftex
Mango Posted April 19, 2018 Posted April 19, 2018 2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: Thank you for your opinion but I strongly disagree. Please identify one player from this list that you feel is miscategorized? IMO and the opinions of many others, this list is pretty solid. These threads always devolve into 5 pages of people telling you why this doesn’t make sense. It seems like you’re looking for an echo chamber. It’s odd
BuffaloRush Posted April 19, 2018 Author Posted April 19, 2018 5 hours ago, Mango said: These threads always devolve into 5 pages of people telling you why this doesn’t make sense. It seems like you’re looking for an echo chamber. It’s odd Dont forget the threads with you whinging like a baby
GunnerBill Posted April 19, 2018 Posted April 19, 2018 5 hours ago, Mango said: These threads always devolve into 5 pages of people telling you why this doesn’t make sense. It seems like you’re looking for an echo chamber. It’s odd He doesn't want debate. He ends each of these posts saying "this can not be debated". When you do debate him he doesn't engage with the arguments. I appreciate his work but it is slightly myopic. 2
Rochesterfan Posted April 19, 2018 Posted April 19, 2018 8 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said: I wish I could get into this discussion, but it always comes back to how inconsistent and subjective your rating system is. And I dont want to have to nitpick when the issues should be obvious. So I'm just going to back away respectfully. Good idea, but questionable execution. Agreed - hard to look at the percentages and gain anything meaningful when the hits and misses are all over the place.
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