PAuline: agreement in principle with giants

[Wily Dog]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not sure your analogy is sound.  By closing time, the girls left may look pretty good to you.  Isn't this the phenomenon behind the Bills fans once-common fear to expose that budding superstar QB Levi Brown to waivers or the fervent defense of Peterman here?

YES 

4 hours ago, KGun12TD said:

17 years of garbage and people still want to play the "QB will fall" garbage. McBeane should go and get the QB they want. DONE!

I see that the Biff's from Tonawanda are all over this board. I really can't see why when the scouts, pundits, and every other prognosticator has said that there are four QB's that are significantly above the rest , that the nervous nellies . cannot see the writing on the wall. We  need a franchise QB , There are four at the top of the draft, We have sufficient resources to secure one , Our GM is going to trade UP to get one if he and his staff can . That means he will have picked one of the four that they think is THE  ONE.  This is the new Bill's. 

[reddogblitz]

Just now, Wily Dog said:

I really can't see why when the scouts, pundits, and every other prognosticator has said that there are four QB's that are significantly above the rest , that the nervous nellies . cannot see the writing on the wall.

 

A few years ago Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker were the best QB in the draft and the same people that said that now say these 4 guys are all that.  Maybe that has something to do with it?

 

We'll all find out what they're gonna do when they do it.  Your guess is as good as mine (which is probably wrong).

Edited April 18, 2018 by reddogblitz

[maryland-bills-fan]

Yep.   I had a deal with Gisele Bündchen  to have a date and a romantic weekend in bed. I approved it.  She didn't know about it.  It was the same sort of news

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...uh oh...."The Perils of Pauline" returneth...............

[Wily Dog]

You neglected to read the rest of the post or did not understand that i said the GM has to do his thing.

12 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

A few years ago Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker were the best QB in the draft and the same people that said that now say these 4 guys are all that.  Maybe that has something to do with it?

 

We'll all find out what they're gonna do when they do it.  Your guess is as good as mine (which is probably wrong).

 

[BigBuff423]

5 hours ago, GG said:

You're not very good at this, considering that signing McCarron is a lot closer to your analogy and not mine.  

 

No, they’re very similar, just arriving at the same destination by a different path. Either way, we disagree and this is old. Deuces...

[JoPar_v2]

9 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Drafting a QB at 12 is kicking the can? Wasn’t for the Texans last year.

If it’s staying put just to preserve all the picks,  and not taking your preferred QB at 12 but instead taking the next best guy available, then yes, there is something wrong with that mindset. That’s what I read from his post. I am not interested in “building our depth” this year, with the imputus and ammunition to get an elite QB prospect.

[Jamie Nails]

I listened today. He totally gave himself an out— Agreed in principle, but they might not do it based on circumstances. We’ll never be able to disprove his comments and he’s able to make some headlines for himself. 

[Boatdrinks]

9 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Well, if your aim is to take a first round qb to placate fans and sell tix, then there's nothing wrong with it.  You can't miss.  If your aim is to build a winning team, however, it could be a costly mistake.   What if neither Cleveland nor the Giants take QBs?   Wow, great the Jests get first crack at the QBs, but since they had the sixth pick anyways, how are they all that much better off picking at 3 rather than 6.  Indy wasn't taking a QB.  The Browns aren't taking two.  So, that leaves Denver, which doesn't seem likely to draft a QB with both Keenum and Lynch on the roster.  So, the Jest gave up a lot to get the same or slightly better choice than they would have had if they stayed put ... and they don't control their destiny any more at #3 than they would have at #4.  They bought into the "4 QBs are going to go in the top 5" hype being spewed by the media mavens and got played by the Colts.

 

That's not even dealing with the bigger issue of picking the right QB in a draft class that simply has a lot of flawed prospects rather than only 1 or 2 outstanding ones. 

The Jets move was made so they weren't left without a QB. Why? They knew the Bills were interested in moving up to the Colts pick at 3. They also knew that the Browns would take a QB with one of their picks. The NYG will not trade with the Jets, but quite possibly could trade down with a different QB needy team or even take a QB themselves. The same goes for Denver at 5. While the price paid was steep, the Jets got to the best position they could get to AND made it difficult for the division rival Bills to pick ahead of them. If they stayed at 6, the Bills had several options to leapfrog them in the order. This may have left only one or none of the top 4 QBs available to them. Staying  at 6 was a big risk to the Jets. 

Edited April 19, 2018 by Boatdrinks

[ColdFront_USAF]

11 hours ago, BillsFanMike said:

Please stay where we are at McBean. We need to gather talent and a QB will fall in the draft. It happens every year. Build up our depth.

 

Depends who Beane wants. If his top choice is Jackson, then yeah, no need to move up to get him. If he wants Darnold, Mayfield or Rosen, better get ahead of the Jets or risk them taking your guy. What a kick in the balls that would be, spending all that time and money scouting your top choice qb just to get stuck playing him twice a year. 

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Instead of getting the hottest girl at the bar, I’m going to wait until bar closing and hopefully a non-beast will be left.  It’s a great strategy.

 

 

Yup. Especially when you're going to have to marry her rather than just date her for a week or so. It's a brilliant move.

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Tyrod's friend said:

Hey bud. Hope you are enjoying the day.

There's a couple of problems I have here: first of all, when you are taking a "top five" selection and using it on a QB, you are leveraging true opportunity costs - and they have to be adjusted for the risk involved. To use the vernacular of the Giants GM, those are Gold Jacket picks. Comparing the possible results of a lottery ticket used on a 4th round pick to a top five choice ... you can see where I am going here, right? There's been ONE All Pro season delivered by a QB drafted between 2011 and 2016. Again, you can argue about relative value but you have to get back to the cost of the pick.

Second, from 2011 to 2016 in rounds 2 and 3 I've got five guys I'd call a Franchise QB out of 15 choices (Carr, Garrapolo, Foles, Wilson and Dalton) - 33% hit rate. These are players a team is going to give a reasonable shot at winning the job.

Of the 38 picked in the 4th or later, not a single one of those guys had a snow ball's chance in hell (and yet a couple still made it). A 4th round pick, playing a normal position, has an uphill battle to win a starting position. To be drafted in the 4th round, a QB is automatically ticketed to AT BEST hold the clipboard and hope for disaster in the injury department.

Statistically speaking, I think your analysis has got one helluva a long tail going on here. I mean we can quibble about Foles or Dalton, but there's a clear delineation that using the same analysis of guys after 3 can't be used to paint R1 to R3. And beyond that we can go back to the value the likelihood of ANY 4th round pick turning up a franchise player at any position.

Finally this: in the last two years, your case has water but let's be careful to not fall prey to recency bias. Sure, Winston, Goff, Wentz, Marriota were hits. Look at strictly the top three rounds between 2011 and 2014 - the rounds where teams are truly trying to at least find a starter at QB - and more Franchise Guys were found after the top 5 than in the top 5.

Don't get me wrong; I pretty much agree with your conclusions but likewise, you are playing pretty free and easy with this whole thing. 

 

F'ahk. How many days left? Can't we just pull a Namath? Hide Baker in a hotel room and sign him before he gets an offer from someone else?

 

 

 

Foles isn't a quibble. He's no franchise QB. Not even close. Dalton may be a franchise guy but he's no top ten or twelve guy at least so far, and that's what you need, a consistent top ten or twelve guy to give yourself a consistent shot at titles.

 

And your way of fighting recency bias is to look only at the last six years? That does not fully address the problem.

 

This is what you get when you look at 2011 - 2016.

 

2011 - 2016 Pick 1 - 10 Goff, Wentz, Jameis Winston, Mariota, Bortles. Luck, Griffin III, Tannehill, Newton, Locker, Gabbert (with Winston, Mariota, Bortles and maybe Tannehill still having a shot)

 

2011 - 2016 Pick 11 - 32: Paxton Lynch, Manziel, Bridgewater, Manuel, Weeden, Ponder (Bridgewater still has a shot, and maaaaaaaaaaaaaybe Lynch)

 

2011 - 2016 2nd rounders: Hackenberg, Carr, Garoppolo, Geno Smith, Osweiler, Dalton, Kaepernick (Garroppolo and Carr have really great chances. Very likely. Dalton, too, maybe)

 

2011 - 2016 3rd rounders: Brissett, Kessler, Grayson, Mannion, Glennon, Wilson, Foles, Mallett

 

What does this tell you? It tells you all but nothing, because it's way too small a sample, with many of these guys early enough in their careers that we don't know for sure yet). You need to have many more years to look at. The only real trend is that out of five rock solid top QBs, four of them were picked in the top ten.

 

Get yourself a larger sample, though, and what you find changes radically .....

 

1990 - 2016 Pick 1 - 10 Goff, Wentz, Jameis Winston, Mariota, Bortles. Luck, Griffin III, Tannehill, Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Bradford, Stafford, Sanchez, Matt Ryan, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Mike Vick, Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf, Steve McNair, Kerry Collins, Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer, Drew Bledsoe, Rick Mirer, David Klingler, Jeff George, Andre Ware ........................... (with Winston, Mariota, Bortles and maybe Tannehill still having a shot)

 

1990 - 2016 Pick 11 - 32: Paxton Lynch, Manziel, Bridgewater, Manuel, Weeden, Ponder, Tebow, Freeman, Joe Flacco, Brady Quinn, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Roethlisberger, Losman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Patrick Ramsey, Chad Pennington before the shoulder injuries, Giovanni Carmazzi, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown, Jim Druckenmiller, Tommy Maddox, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich .......................(Bridgewater still has a shot, and maaaaaaaaaaaaaybe Lynch. IMO Flacco was a franchise guy but not a rock solid long-term franchise guy and Culpepper might've made it without the injuries but doesn't)

 

1990 - 2016 2nd rounders: Hackenberg, Carr, Garoppolo, Geno Smith, Osweiler, Dalton, Kaepernick, Clausen, Pat White, Brohm, Henne, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Drew Brees, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo, Shaun King, Charlie Batch, Jake Plummer, Tony Banks, Todd Collins, Kordell Stewart, Matt Blundin, Tony Sacca, Brett Favre, Browning Nagle ............................. (Garroppolo and Carr have really great chances. Very likely. Dalton, too, maybe)

 

1990 - 2016 3rd rounders: Brissett, Kessler, Grayson, Mannion, Glennon, Wilson, Foles, Mallett, Colt McCoy, Kevin O'Connell, Trent Edwards, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene, Matt Schaub, Dave Ragone, Chris Simms, Josh McCown, Chris Redman, Brock Huard, Jonathan Quinn, Brian Griese, Bobby Hoying, Stoney Case, Eric Zeier, Billy Joe Hobert, Tom Hodson, Peter Tom Willis, Neil O'Donnell

 

 

 

There are some reasonable disagreements to be made with who I counted as undoubted franchise successes. But the overall trend is inarguable. And while I didn't go any further back, I'd bet the trend would be much the same further back.

Edited April 19, 2018 by Thurman#1

[swnybillsfan]

14 hours ago, RiotAct said:

dear God, please make it stop...

don't worry...one more week. then i'm sure that nobody will post anything that makes your head spin. 

[ganesh]

16 hours ago, What a Tuel said:

 

Doesn't matter if a QB falls, it should be the QB Beane wants. I would hope the 6 top QBs in this draft are not considered interchangeable.

Unfortunately everyone thinks they are interchangeable from the point of draft position...meaning they would be happy if they got any one of the QB at their position.

 

Here is what we see in media

Darnold -  He is considered a Interception M/C

Rosen -  He has attitude issues 

Mayfield - 6' ft  and Mayfield will always be tied together

Allen -  His 55% completion will always be mentioned on every turn

Jackson -  Is he a QB ??  One says he is electric and the other says he is a WR!!!

Mason -  What is his weakness...It varies....

 

All this will be resolved in a week in Jones's building!

 

[eball]

17 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

same here.  It's almost a letdown when the draft is over.  The speculation and rumors are so much of the fun, IMO.  !!

 

A couple of weeks ago, I would have agreed with you, particularly right after the Bills traded with Cinci and then the Jets made that deal to move to #3.  The last two weeks, however, have been just brutal.  Nothing new, nothing concrete, just a bunch of media blowhards and their opinions.  I'm ready for it to be OVER.

 

Thank Jesus the schedule release is today...gives us something else to talk about.

[Gordio]

17 hours ago, CSBill said:

 

what's wrong with that?

 

 

Exactly, that strategy worked like a charm for me during my college years.

[billsredneck1]

i believe the giants deal means.....if cleveland takes what n.y. perceives as eli's heir, they trade out.

 

if their no.1 is darnold and cleveland takes allen, the giants stay put and take darnold.

 

the problem is nobody knows what dorsey is going to do and that may just be because the front office there is at odds of who to take. that also emphasizes the point that there is no clear cut,can't miss, andrew luck type this year.

[PIZ]

7 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

i believe the giants deal means.....if cleveland takes what n.y. perceives as eli's heir, they trade out.

 

if their no.1 is darnold and cleveland takes allen, the giants stay put and take darnold.

 

the problem is nobody knows what dorsey is going to do and that may just be because the front office there is at odds of who to take. that also emphasizes the point that there is no clear cut,can't miss, andrew luck type this year.

 

I think if Cleveland takes Darnold, we end up with Allen at #2.  I thin if Cleveland takes Allen, we end up with Rudolph.  Not sure I like either of those though.  The only other option I see is a possible trade up to #4 for Rosen.

[billsredneck1]

6 minutes ago, PIZ said:

 

I think if Cleveland takes Darnold, we end up with Allen at #2.  I thin if Cleveland takes Allen, we end up with Rudolph.  Not sure I like either of those though.  The only other option I see is a possible trade up to #4 for Rosen.

all the assets for allen at 2?....ugggh....not to mention that leaves rosen, mayfield and rudolph for our division foes.

[PIZ]

24 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

all the assets for allen at 2?....ugggh....not to mention that leaves rosen, mayfield and rudolph for our division foes.

 

Not saying I want it to happen.  Just that I think it will happen.