A Different Josh Allen Perspective For People Who Actually Care About Reality

[Coach Tuesday]

4 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

You know why scouts, fans, and the analysts get these guys wrong so often?

 

It's not that they aren't good prospects.  And some certainly ignore obvious red flags (think Manziel or Russell) to their own peril.  Some just weren't very good.  Think Kizer or EJ.  But many are legit prospects that have a real chance to be great.  But.....

 

I've said this a dozen times already.  WHAT MATTERS IS WHERE THEY END UP.  The organization, the team, the offensive staff----these are the things that most dictates success or failure.  

 

If Fisher wasn't canned and replaced by McVay, Goff would be one year closer to career back up.  Look for Trubisky to make a similar leap this year.  

 

So here is what I see happening.  Predictions!

 

Welcome to Cleveland Sam.  Hue Jackson is a dam good OC.  The weapons they have....ridiculous....IF Gordon is off the liquor and drugs.  I dont know how this plays out.  Its still Cleveland.  But it's a dam exciting offense.

 

Giants.  Great offensive coach.  You get to watch Eli and learn.  Good spot.  This is where Rosen lands.

 

The Jets might ruin whoever they draft.  Good OC but the supporting cast is a disaster.  This will be Mayfield.  He might be good enough to overcome it and thrive in NYC.  

 

Browns go Saquan....Denver goes Chubb.  

 

Bills trade up to 7.  Dont give up more than the 12, a 2nd, and a 3rd in 2019.  They draft Rudolph in the first surprise of round 1.  Whoever we draft has an uphill battle.  No WRs.  New oline.  And a new unknown OC.  

 

Lamar Jackson....welcome to Arizona.  Just hand it to DJ.  

 

Allen ends up in New Orleans.  Perfect spot for him.  

 

6 QBs in round 1.

 

 

 

Thank you for posting this.  This is what I hate about prospect evaluations - folks dramatically oversimplify it, as if a prospect is inherently either "good" or "bad" and it's just a matter of figuring out which one it is, like some kind of chemical screen test - give the prospect a drink of X and if they turn purple, they're "bad."  

 

Life doesn't work that way.  

 

There are so many factors that go into whether any prospect, and a QB in particular, will turn out to be a good pro.  The quality of the structure and strategy of the organization that drafts them, for example.  Their own work ethic.  The skillset of the players around them.  Luck, injuries, etc.

 

What I take from the OP is that there are good reasons to think that Allen will buck the trend of sub-60% college QBs, in other words, he's not as high of a risk as some have made him out to be.

 

Fine, point well taken.

 

But to go any farther than that and state with near-certainty that Allen is going to be "good" is simply a waste of time - it's unknowable with Allen, or any other prospect.

Edited April 17, 2018 by Coach Tuesday

[Blokestradamus]

8 hours ago, racketmaster said:

Gentry was an undrafted free agent that was waived like 3 or 4 times by the Bears last year. Evans was a top 10 pick. They are nothing alike as far as wr talents. 

 

I wasn't trying to compare them as players. Just that they both reeled in some amazing catches that probably helped to shape the view of the QB throwing it just because they were completed.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

....GREAT work Metz and thanks for investing the time to put this together.........appreciate the perspective....

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

5 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Your record of knowing the difference between "their" and "they're" is slightly worse than mine when I was in second grade.  

 

I'm not saying they know who is gonna be good.  I'm saying they know who the teams think are gonna be good.  Don't forget, they are the ones who put out these mocks before anyone else.  If you look at it from that perspective, they are really good at what they do.  Every mock you see all offseason takes those two guys' mocks as a starting point and tweaks it from there.

 

And he’s an English professor.

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

Jordan Palmer has to say that. If he doesn't he won't get any work with QB prospects in the future. If he came out and said he's way to inconsistent when it comes to accuracy, Palmer would look terrible in multiple ways.

 

 

He doesn't have to say that. There are a million ways of commenting without committing yourself too strongly. You don't have to say what he said. It'd be fine for him to say something like, "Allen is a gutsy, tough guy. I'd take him in a street fight, he's the guy I want behind me. He's smart and I think he's going to be a big success."

 

More, it's a fact that Allen really has looked a lot more accurate at every step along the way. He looked more accurate at the Senior Bowl than he had during the season. He looked more accurate at the combine than he had at the Senior Bowl, and he looked a lot more accurate at his pro day than he had at the combine, deliberately mixing in a bunch of touch passes of the type he hadn't been known for. He's improved a lot.

 

Will it stick? That's another question. But if he sits the bench a year or two to let the mechanics improvements get deep into his muscle memory, the odds get quite a bit better. But not perfect. With some guys it doesn't stick. But with some it does.

[Blokestradamus]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Well, I was one of those who made that observation - that when I see Jackson or Darnold being inaccurate, I can see why in their base.  If I pause the vid, I can tell if the throw will be accurate or not.   So I feel like there are things you can drill and try to improve, especially since much of the time it's good.  But with Allen, I can't see that.  There are times when he's inaccurate and I can't see a thing wrong.  I think Buffalo716 said the same.

 

To be fair, someone else here (I think it was Bandit) felt that more of his inaccuracies than generally credited could be put on the WR not being where he expected, and someone else posted a piece by a QB coach - Jordan Palmer? who has been working with Allen and had some stuff to say about subtle mechanic things that he says Allen is improving.  I can't see subtleties in real time throwing motion myself, unless I have film I can watch in slowmo.

 

So I don't know.

 

I certainly feel that Bandit's theory could have some validity to it. I think that it's important that we don't speak in absolutes about prospects because none of us are 100% in the know about what kinds of coaching they get on a day-to-day basis, how seriously they take their education and split the time between the two. There's a lot at play with these guys at a really tender age. If a guy has the right work ethic, he stands a chance at improving as a dedicated professional.

 

I'm fully aware that I'm only really using my best guesses when it comes down to mechanics. I've never played the game so there's likely to be a few gaps in my knowledge that experience would help fill. As far as fixing it goes, I'm a believer that you can make tweaks to the throwing process. When it's someone with a really pronounced 'flaw' (like a Kevin Hogan), you're not going to completely overhaul that kind of muscle memory but you can make subtle changes. It's just about if they end up regressing to bad habits under pressure.

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

Honestly, I'd start with the being good part of the equation. Maybe he was good for a college QB but, as a pro prospect, he's mightily underwhelming.

 

When you reference the chances of a higher completion % if Hill catches a lot more passes, I know what you're getting at. However, his stats aren't what make him inaccurate in my mind. I've seen him absolutely fire swing passes at his backs with horrible placement/touch. His touch in general frightens me but moreso in the short/quick game. Someone else chimed in about this (I forgot who, feel free to jump in if you see this), that there's no rhyme or reason to his misfires. With Darnold/Lamar, I see misses mainly due to their base. With Allen, there's not one consistent element to his inconsistencies. Ergo, how do you fix what seems to be natural inaccuracy with no root cause?

 

Josh has his plus points, of course he does. In most physical regards, he's the prototype. Pound for pound, I'd consider him equal to Lamar as an athlete. Much like Patrick Mahomes, he's definitely got an 'it factor' about him. His highlight reel will leave you drooling because he's not devoid of talent. I don't want to fault yourself or anyone else that likes him for doing so. In another world where he's a plucky underdog that goes on Day 2/3, I'd probably understand taking the plunge on him.

 

I just can't shake this feeling that I've seen him very recently in a Bills jersey because he's nearly word-for-word how I felt about Cardale Jones.

 

I saw the bolded too and it features in my evaluation of him in my QB thread.  To me he absolutely suffers from "natural inaccuracy" where I can't see anything obviously technical that leads to throws that are off target.  I haven't had a chance yet to go back and look at the 'overstepping' theory that Jordan Palmer floated (and bandit has alluded to as well).  I might not get a chance to do that until the day of the draft.  

 

 

[greeneblitz]

We all know how most fans become Josh Allen (or any prospect) experts, they look at one or 2 lines of college stats and maybe, maybe watch a YouTube video, then fill up 6 months arguing for or against a draft prospect.

[ALF]

A team with a great QB coach could work with him for 2 years (Pat Shurmur  the Giants HC) behind Eli just not at #2.

Top QBs in draft can’t say enough about Pat Shurmur

 

https://nypost.com/2018/03/04/top-qbs-in-draft-cant-say-enough-about-pat-shurmur/

Edited April 17, 2018 by ALF

[Tyrod's friend]

6 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

 

Haha.  Not the case, buddy.  He was named the opening day starter and suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in the first quarter of week 1.  At least have your facts straight.

 

I understand your haste in trying to take me to task for attacking your boy.

But re-read my post. All I was saying was that he was familiar with the system, buddy. Was he or wasn't he familiar with the offense in 2016? With all that, in a defense-challenged conference he managed to be part of barely a .500 team. Nearly every team he played against in his conference scored 35 points per game and despite having an 1900 yard rusher was the second best QB to an immortal QB out there. By your own admission he was surrounded with great talent.

 

I think those are pretty important facts, and they are straight, and they go to the point that Josh Allen had a reasonable but not statistically significant season in 2016. 

 

Try a little decaf. 

 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

I would stay away from Allen.   The knocks I hear on him are accuracy and decision making.   So sometimes, (I understand) he makes a bad throw that is hard to understand.  Sometimes, (I understand),  he just completely chooses to do something that is a WTF, is he doing event.   These are things that you can not teach away.   Will he be an EJ with brain-farts?......  I would like to see a player who was recognized as successful at every increasingly advanced level.  Allen  was not recruited by big schools, he played very well in JC for two years (against inferior competition)  and finally had success for two years at Wyoming (the 7th best conference in the country).      There is not a 4 year track record of college success against  top notch teams.  There is enough doubt to scare me away from  making a major investment of draft choices in him.

[WhoTom]

 

Excellent post - thanks for your perspective. I appreciate that you acknowledge the uncertainty - both positive and negative - of Allen's potential success in the NFL.

 

Regarding this:

 

12 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

This is a thread containing FACTS for all the Biff from Tonawandas who think they suddenly know more about football than NFL scouts, analysts, GM's and coaches.

 

Unfortunately we live in an era where it's trendy to dispel the opinions of experts. Flat-Earthers, Jenny McCarthy and her degree from "University of Google," and armchair GMs all share the same trait: they think that casual observation and a few hours on the Internet are more valuable than years of training and professional experience. Sad.

 

 

 

[BigBuff423]

12 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

So I moved to Denver, from Buffalo, in 2002 and almost immediately adopted Wyoming as my college team (pretty much because I think they have the best uniforms in sports).  Anyway I have ramped up my fandom in recent years and, at this point, am a pretty diehard fan.  In short, I have watched every game Josh Allen has played as a college QB.  I have driven up to Laramie to see them/him play four times (three times in 2016 and once last year).  Incidentally, they were 3-1 in those games and he played good to great in all of them.  The win against Boise State (who was undefeated and ranked in the teens at the time) in 2016 was one of the best football games I've ever attended in my life (the greatest comeback against the Oilers obviously being #1).  

 

So this is NOT a Josh Allen excuse thread, nor am I a Josh Allen "fanboy."  And full disclosure, I probably have him as the #2 or 3 QB on my board (you can call me a Mayfield fanboy if you want).  This is a thread containing FACTS for all the Biff from Tonawandas who think they suddenly know more about football than NFL scouts, analysts, GM's and coaches.  Just trying to dispel a lot of disinformation floating around.  

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

Josh Allen "wasn't good" in college: FALSE

 

The 2016 Wyoming squad was loaded with offensive talent.  Literally five of their key offensive players were seniors who played with NFL teams into preseason last year and four are currently on NFL rosters.  That being said, it was Josh Allen's first year as a college QB.  With all of those guys as juniors the previous season, they went 2-10.  With Allen, they ended up 8-6 but were 8-3 before losing a meaningless game against New Mexico and then two nailbiters against San Diego State (MWC Championship game) and BYU (bowl game).  He was very good.  He went from an unheralded JuCo transfer to a guy being thrown around as the #1 pick in this draft halfway through his first college season.  Really ask yourself, Biff, if a guy could do that without being "good."  His completion percentage was lower than you might like but he had a propensity, especially in 2016, to throw the ball downfield A LOT.  For perspective, Brian Hill (now on the Bengals), played most every down, was second in the nation in rushing that year and is a very elusive back.  He had NINE RECEPTIONS ALL SEASON.  Ask yourself, if Hill caught 40 balls and Allen's completion percentage was 66% instead of 56% in 2016, would we even be having that conversation?  Even with his 56% completion percentage, he was named the 2nd team MWC QB (Brett Rypien, Mark's son, had better numbers, but few would argue Allen wasn't a more impactful player that year) as well as the MWC preseason player of the year going into 2017.  Not bad for not being good, huh?

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

Josh Allen had no weapons in 2017: TRUE

 

I was on here trying to tell anyone who would listen, prior to the 2017 season, that Josh Allen's numbers would be way down.  It's easy for you, Biff, to call that an excuse but here's a little perspective: he lost his top two running backs, his top two receivers, his tight end and his center (again, four of these guys are in the NFL now).  Their leading rusher went from a guy who finished 2nd in FBS to a freshman who was LITERALLY converted from a linebacker right before the season started.  They struggled a ton on offense in 2017.  Allen's numbers did not impress.  Anyone who follows Wyoming football could've told you that would be the case.  All of their skill position players were unheralded freshmen and sophomores playing their first college football games, save for two guys who played sparingly in 2016 and aren't very good (see: CJ Johnson's drop of a beautiful deep ball for a would-be TD against Iowa in week 1).  So when Biff is on here telling you that Josh Allen struggled against Iowa and Oregon, well, no s***.  Of course he did.  And you know what, as someone who follows the program, his attitude literally could not have been better all last season.  Not once did he even come remotely close to making an excuse for his numbers or complaining about the glaring lack of talent around him.  Oh yeah, Wyoming was 8-3 with Josh Allen in 2017 and 0-2 without him.  Oh yeah part 2, watch his three TD passes from the bowl game against Central Michigan and tell me how many PRO QB's make all three of those throws.

 

 

FACT CHECK: 

 

There is more to Josh Allen than his "strong arm" and "big hands": TRUE

 

Did you know that in addition to having the best arm we've maybe ever seen coming out of college football that Josh Allen is unbelievably strong, elusive, can juke and bowl over defenders, and makes throws on the run and across his body as well as any prospect I've ever seen?  Well that happens to be the case.  The Cam Newton comparisons are not crazy.  Watch his highlights from the first San Diego State game, the UNLV game from 2016- hell, before you go spouting off, watch a freaking highlight tape of the guy.

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

The comparisons to JaMarcus Russell are beyond insulting: TRUE

 

Go on youtube.com and watch a video of former teammates talking about JaMarcus Russell skipping meetings, being utterly disengaged, eating copious amounts of s****y food to the point where he weighed in at 300 lbs., etc.  Also guessing JaMarcus Russell didn't score a 37 on the wonderlic.  Josh Allen is as good of a teammate and leader as you will find in the college football ranks.

 

 

Will all of this translate into him being a great pro?  I don't know.  I absolutely see the bust potential.  He is still unrefined.  He would be best-suited, in my opinion, going to a team like San Diego.  He absolutely has a gunslinger mentality.  But to all you Biff from Tonawandas out there, so sure of yourselves (God does this remind me of when half the board was mocking Carolina for taking Newton #1), I really, really hope you eat a fistful of crow and that you have the sacks to show up and admit you were wrong.  An acceptable stance is, "gee I'm not buying the Allen hype but if an NFL team sees it, I gotta think they know more than I do."  That's fair.  But the unbelievable levels of ignorance on this board, ie. "I wouldn't take him in the fifth round; I will no longer be a Bills fan if they take him, etc"... dude just give it a rest already.  PLEASE.  I am so over it.  At this point, I am so sick of hearing from the naysayers that I will be rooting for Josh Allen no matter who he gets drafted by, and that includes the Jets.  Not the Dolphins though.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

I'm not saying I agree with ALL of your statements or opinions, but it IS refreshing to hear from someone who's actually watched his games in person. There are many so called "experts" and every year these same people get it wrong sometimes, and right sometimes. That to me, says it's nearly impossible to predict which QB will actually be a good to great QB, so in the end, you trust your information and your instincts and hope for the best. That said, I don't think anyone could argue that taking Allen is all about "potential". In that, it's not like Luck or Manning where you've seen them do it on a level that screams All Pro, but he certainly has all the potential to be that good. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I would stay away from Allen.   The knocks I hear on him are accuracy and decision making.   So sometimes, (I understand) he makes a bad throw that is hard to understand.  Sometimes, (I understand),  he just completely chooses to do something that is a WTF, is he doing event.   These are things that you can not teach away.   Will he be an EJ with brain-farts?......  I would like to see a player who was recognized as successful at every increasingly advanced level.  Allen  was not recruited by big schools, he played very well in JC for two years (against inferior competition)  and finally had success for two years at Wyoming (the 7th best conference in the country).      There is not a 4 year track record of college success against  top notch teams.  There is enough doubt to scare me away from  making a major investment of draft choices in him.

 

*Nods* This is pretty much where I am.  I see him as an enormously physically gifted, high ceiling guy with development needs, who played in a small-school conference.

 

I would be beyond thrilled if the Bills drafted him at 12 or perhaps a minor trade-up a couple of slots.  I would be "WTF, man?" if the Bills sold the draft farm and traded up to the 1st 5 picks for him, because in my mind, that's what you do for a guy you feel confident can be 'the man' and start right away, not for an enormously high-ceiling prospect.

 

I don't feel we're the best place for him, because when you have that high-ceiling development guy, you really don't want to have him start right away.

 

I am a "Biff from Tonawanda", but since I do see similar questionmarks raised about Allen by experts and scouts, I don't feel I need to go check myself for it.

 

PS I have similar feelings about Lamar Jackson

Edited April 17, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Hsker4life]

A lot of football experts, who do this football thing for a living (and have for decades), are very high on Allen's potential as an NFL QB. If the staff is confident that he can be a franchise QB, I'm more than okay with trading up into the Top5 to land him. 

 

Sure, in a perfect world I'd rather wait until 12 or make a slight trade and still get him, but if he's your franchise QB, go get him. 

[BillsFan17]

19 minutes ago, Hsker4life said:

A lot of football experts, who do this football thing for a living (and have for decades), are very high on Allen's potential as an NFL QB. If the staff is confident that he can be a franchise QB, I'm more than okay with trading up into the Top5 to land him. 

 

Sure, in a perfect world I'd rather wait until 12 or make a slight trade and still get him, but if he's your franchise QB, go get him. 

You are using the media to say this. NFL teams havent come out and said the kid is high on their boards.

 

So we really have no idea how teams truly feel about Allen.

 

Moreover, let's say for arguments sake every team loves him, does that mean hes a slam dunk to be successful? How many high picks have busted that absolutely everyone loved?

 

All-in-all, maybe it's okay to formulate ones own opinion and not have to rely on media rankings to justify why I think a player will be good or not.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, WhoTom said:

Regarding this:

 

Unfortunately we live in an era where it's trendy to dispel the opinions of experts. Flat-Earthers, Jenny McCarthy and her degree from "University of Google," and armchair GMs all share the same trait: they think that casual observation and a few hours on the Internet are more valuable than years of training and professional experience. Sad.

 

 

This is true, but on the other hand - we as Bills fans have years where we have felt, with some justification, that we Armchair Andies could overall have used Youtube vids and Internet scouting reports to build a better draft.  Roscoe Parrish, Donte Whitner, John McCargo, Leodis McKelvin, James Hardy, Aaron Maybin....even in recent drafts after our GM and scouting improved we have TJ Graham, EJ Manuel, and Sammy Watkins as puzzling Bills draft-day decisions.

 

So I would have to say, trendy or not, we have a bit more factual justification behind us than the Flat Earth society.  And it is Sad, but not probably for the reason you mean.

 

And some of us, perhaps I should be ashamed to say, put far more than casual observation and a few hours into it.  Those would include Gunnerbill, TheBandit, Buffalo716 and others. (edit: any ashamed applies strictly to myself)

 

26 minutes ago, Hsker4life said:

A lot of football experts, who do this football thing for a living (and have for decades), are very high on Allen's potential as an NFL QB.

 

A lot of 'football experts', meaning the guys who write about football for a living in the media, are indeed very high.

Some of them were equally high on Claussen, Gabbert, Johnny Manziel etc.

Most of them make their former predictions deliberately hard to obtain so they can't be "sanity checked" a couple years down the road - three months ago I volunteered to perform an assessment of several guys if someone could get me their stuff, I had no takers.

 

I put it to you that what none of us know, is where this guy is on actual NFL team's draft boards.

 

A few 'football experts' are not so high on Allen, and even those who are note the same gaps - so it's clearly a matter of how one weights what one sees.

Edited April 17, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Like A Mofo]

Good write up and some good points for sure thank you for this:

 

Is this the Biff From Tonawanda that keeps being mentioned?

 

 

[Hsker4life]

You

22 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said:

You are using the media to say this. NFL teams havent come out and said the kid is high on their boards.

 

So we really have no idea how teams truly feel about Allen.

 

Moreover, let's say for arguments sake every team loves him, does that mean hes a slam dunk to be successful? How many high picks have busted that absolutely everyone loved?

 

All-in-all, maybe it's okay to formulate ones own opinion and not have to rely on media rankings to justify why I think a player will be good or not.

I didn't say teams are high on him, although I imagine they are. I did say, however, that many football experts are high on him. 

 

I also have formulated my own opinion on the QBs, but I'm not naive enough to flip out if/when people who know a lot more about football than anyone here make a particular draft choice, including trading up to land their #1 QB. 

[ToGoGo]

I like him a lot, but there's also a part of me that sees Ryan Mallett in him. Incredible, incredible arm though. Superstar talent.