A Different Josh Allen Perspective For People Who Actually Care About Reality

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 4/16/2018 at 6:37 PM, metzelaars_lives said:

Full disclosure, I probably have him as the #2 or 3 QB on my board (you can call me a Mayfield fanboy if you want).  This is a thread containing FACTS for all the Biff from Tonawandas who think they suddenly know more about football than NFL scouts, analysts, GM's and coaches.  Just trying to dispel a lot of disinformation floating around. 

 

I am a big fan of facts and trying to cut through the noise.  FWIW, bottom line up front, what I don't like about the Allen hype is the talk of him going #1 overall.  I would say he's probably #3 or #4 QB to me (I would need to watch more Darnold, the QB I've seen the least of).  He's certainly not a 3rd round prospect.  I just see development needs, and I don't see top of the 1st as the place to draft a guy with development needs.  I think Allen would benefit in the NFL from a team that can let him sit for a while. 

 

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FACT CHECK: Josh Allen "wasn't good" in college: FALSE

FACT CHECK: Josh Allen had no weapons in 2017: TRUE

FACT CHECK:  There is more to Josh Allen than his "strong arm" and "big hands": TRUE

Did you know that in addition to having the best arm we've maybe ever seen coming out of college football that Josh Allen is unbelievably strong, elusive, can juke and bowl over defenders, and makes throws on the run and across his body as well as any prospect I've ever seen?  Well that happens to be the case.  The Cam Newton comparisons are not crazy.  Watch his highlights from the first San Diego State game, the UNLV game from 2016- hell, before you go spouting off, watch a freaking highlight tape of the guy.

 

This part I knew.

 

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FACT CHECK: The comparisons to JaMarcus Russell are beyond insulting: TRUE

 

I hadn't seen any comparisons to JaMarcus Russell.  Nor do I have any plans to turn in my Bills fan card even if we trade off this draft and the next to trade up and draft Allen.  I will assume McBeane and Co know what they're doing until it's proven beyond a reasonable doubt that they don't.

 

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Will all of this translate into him being a great pro?  I don't know.  I absolutely see the bust potential.  He is still unrefined.  He would be best-suited, in my opinion, going to a team like San Diego.  He absolutely has a gunslinger mentality.  But to all you Biff from Tonawandas out there, so sure of yourselves (God does this remind me of when half the board was mocking Carolina for taking Newton #1), I really, really hope you eat a fistful of crow and that you have the sacks to show up and admit you were wrong.  An acceptable stance is, "gee I'm not buying the Allen hype but if an NFL team sees it, I gotta think they know more than I do."  That's fair.  But the unbelievable levels of ignorance on this board, ie. "I wouldn't take him in the fifth round; I will no longer be a Bills fan if they take him, etc"... dude just give it a rest already.  PLEASE.  I am so over it.  At this point, I am so sick of hearing from the naysayers that I will be rooting for Josh Allen no matter who he gets drafted by, and that includes the Jets.  Not the Dolphins though.

 

Oooh rooting for the Jets ....that's a stretch.  Well, my name isn't Biff, I am originally from Tonawanda, and while I'm not so sure of myself, I do tend to base what I think more on what I watch and less on media noise or hype.  I think we agree more than we disagree, actually.

 

 

 

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Go Bills!

 

 

 

[17 Josh Allen]

really enjoyed this post. glad you did it. He is my number 1 QB. Hoping the Bills draft him. 

 

 

[thurst44]

10 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

So I moved to Denver, from Buffalo, in 2002 and almost immediately adopted Wyoming as my college team (pretty much because I think they have the best uniforms in sports).  Anyway I have ramped up my fandom in recent years and, at this point, am a pretty diehard fan.  In short, I have watched every game Josh Allen has played as a college QB.  I have driven up to Laramie to see them/him play four times (three times in 2016 and once last year).  Incidentally, they were 3-1 in those games and he played good to great in all of them.  The win against Boise State (who was undefeated and ranked in the teens at the time) in 2016 was one of the best football games I've ever attended in my life (the greatest comeback against the Oilers obviously being #1).  

 

So this is NOT a Josh Allen excuse thread, nor am I a Josh Allen "fanboy."  And full disclosure, I probably have him as the #2 or 3 QB on my board (you can call me a Mayfield fanboy if you want).  This is a thread containing FACTS for all the Biff from Tonawandas who think they suddenly know more about football than NFL scouts, analysts, GM's and coaches.  Just trying to dispel a lot of disinformation floating around.  

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

Josh Allen "wasn't good" in college: FALSE

 

The 2016 Wyoming squad was loaded with offensive talent.  Literally five of their key offensive players were seniors who played with NFL teams into preseason last year and four are currently on NFL rosters.  That being said, it was Josh Allen's first year as a college QB.  With all of those guys as juniors the previous season, they went 2-10.  With Allen, they ended up 8-6 but were 8-3 before losing a meaningless game against New Mexico and then two nailbiters against San Diego State (MWC Championship game) and BYU (bowl game).  He was very good.  He went from an unheralded JuCo transfer to a guy being thrown around as the #1 pick in this draft halfway through his first college season.  Really ask yourself, Biff, if a guy could do that without being "good."  His completion percentage was lower than you might like but he had a propensity, especially in 2016, to throw the ball downfield A LOT.  For perspective, Brian Hill (now on the Bengals), played most every down, was second in the nation in rushing that year and is a very elusive back.  He had NINE RECEPTIONS ALL SEASON.  Ask yourself, if Hill caught 40 balls and Allen's completion percentage was 66% instead of 56% in 2016, would we even be having that conversation?  Even with his 56% completion percentage, he was named the 2nd team MWC QB (Brett Rypien, Mark's son, had better numbers, but few would argue Allen wasn't a more impactful player that year) as well as the MWC preseason player of the year going into 2017.  Not bad for not being good, huh?

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

Josh Allen had no weapons in 2017: TRUE

 

I was on here trying to tell anyone who would listen, prior to the 2017 season, that Josh Allen's numbers would be way down.  It's easy for you, Biff, to call that an excuse but here's a little perspective: he lost his top two running backs, his top two receivers, his tight end and his center (again, four of these guys are in the NFL now).  Their leading rusher went from a guy who finished 2nd in FBS to a freshman who was LITERALLY converted from a linebacker right before the season started.  They struggled a ton on offense in 2017.  Allen's numbers did not impress.  Anyone who follows Wyoming football could've told you that would be the case.  All of their skill position players were unheralded freshmen and sophomores playing their first college football games, save for two guys who played sparingly in 2016 and aren't very good (see: CJ Johnson's drop of a beautiful deep ball for a would-be TD against Iowa in week 1).  So when Biff is on here telling you that Josh Allen struggled against Iowa and Oregon, well, no s***.  Of course he did.  And you know what, as someone who follows the program, his attitude literally could not have been better all last season.  Not once did he even come remotely close to making an excuse for his numbers or complaining about the glaring lack of talent around him.  Oh yeah, Wyoming was 8-3 with Josh Allen in 2017 and 0-2 without him.  Oh yeah part 2, watch his three TD passes from the bowl game against Central Michigan and tell me how many PRO QB's make all three of those throws.

 

 

FACT CHECK: 

 

There is more to Josh Allen than his "strong arm" and "big hands": TRUE

 

Did you know that in addition to having the best arm we've maybe ever seen coming out of college football that Josh Allen is unbelievably strong, elusive, can juke and bowl over defenders, and makes throws on the run and across his body as well as any prospect I've ever seen?  Well that happens to be the case.  The Cam Newton comparisons are not crazy.  Watch his highlights from the first San Diego State game, the UNLV game from 2016- hell, before you go spouting off, watch a freaking highlight tape of the guy.

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

The comparisons to JaMarcus Russell are beyond insulting: TRUE

 

Go on youtube.com and watch a video of former teammates talking about JaMarcus Russell skipping meetings, being utterly disengaged, eating copious amounts of s****y food to the point where he weighed in at 300 lbs., etc.  Also guessing JaMarcus Russell didn't score a 37 on the wonderlic.  Josh Allen is as good of a teammate and leader as you will find in the college football ranks.

 

 

Will all of this translate into him being a great pro?  I don't know.  I absolutely see the bust potential.  He is still unrefined.  He would be best-suited, in my opinion, going to a team like San Diego.  He absolutely has a gunslinger mentality.  But to all you Biff from Tonawandas out there, so sure of yourselves (God does this remind me of when half the board was mocking Carolina for taking Newton #1), I really, really hope you eat a fistful of crow and that you have the sacks to show up and admit you were wrong.  An acceptable stance is, "gee I'm not buying the Allen hype but if an NFL team sees it, I gotta think they know more than I do."  That's fair.  But the unbelievable levels of ignorance on this board, ie. "I wouldn't take him in the fifth round; I will no longer be a Bills fan if they take him, etc"... dude just give it a rest already.  PLEASE.  I am so over it.  At this point, I am so sick of hearing from the naysayers that I will be rooting for Josh Allen no matter who he gets drafted by, and that includes the Jets.  Not the Dolphins though.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

This is a great read and, honestly, it's the first compelling argument for Allen I've read, and that's kind of the point. You set it up as people thinking they are smarter than NFL scouts, analysts, GMs, coaches, and, at least for me, that's not why I'm wary of Allen. I'm well aware that my knowledge base when it comes to football, even having watched since childhood and being into my 40s now, is less than many here, let alone professionals. However, it is precisely the professionals' opinions and the way they talk about him that makes me wary of trading up to get Allen. When they describe him as "what he could be" or "unpolished, but what an arm" or that he looks like a QB, or the manner by which he's rising that rings bells from the past and enough of them to set my hackles up the same way as others who have gone bust in the past. Sometimes it's not the matter of amateurs thinking they no more, but amateurs knowing that sometimes certain professionals will think they know better than everyone else and get too too cute and sometimes they are wrong.

 

The comparisons to Russell have little to do with his attitude, but more with the way sometimes the NFL groupthink can become enamored with one player. Is the comparison unfair? Well, most comparisons are. To be honest, I don't remember having much of an opinion about Russell either way at the time. 

 

In any case, I do agree with the last part. Saying I wouldn't take him in the fifth round or I won't be a fan is dumb. I'd be happy enough with him at 12 or even a small trade-up. If we trade a ton of draft capital and pick him at 2, ahead of two or three QBs I like for my own reasons, some logical, some speculative, I won't quit my fandom or even close, but I will be deflated and disappointed, and might be a little less inclined to trust the process (not like a random fan 400 miles from their home turf is going to impact that anyway). All that being said, I will hope that you are right and root for the guy, and for the defense to play lights out (as it is capable even now--well, once they have a middle linebacker anyway) until he hopefully lives up to his potential. 

[elltrain22]

I used to be that Allen hater, but then I watched alot of game film on him. He's raw, and has some definite imperfections, but so do all these qbs. Metz is exactly right about 2016 and 2017 team. They are night and day different, in terms of talent. In 2017, he ran for his life every play, receivers had very little separation, and didn't have hardly any easy throws to make on offense. 

 

For any of the haters, watch him thoroughly, then see if you feel the same. I know I was enlightened 

[K D]

As you said yourself, went from a no name juco to the lowest tier of d1 college football. Now after 20 something games he's ready for the NFL? Unfortunately he's not like Josh Rosen who has been groomed since 12 yrs old by the greatest coaches and programs in the country. He has a long way to go to be at that level

[HappyDays]

Good read. Allen could beat the odds and become an NFL QB. But I don't want to be the team that bets on it. I hope the Browns like him, paving the way for us to go get Darnold.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Thanks for the review!

[Bangarang]

23 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Not trying to convert anyone.  Just trying to tell you that if everyone in the football world- scouts, GM's analysts, etc.- likes Josh Allen but you, a fan listening to WGR and calling in on the whiner line, does not, it might be time for you to take a look in the mirror and try and understand why people who know way more about football than you, do like him.

 

Is this another one of those facts you obtained from talking to all the scouts and GMs in the football world? 

 

I have my own opinion that may differ from others so therefore I am some mouth breather who listens to WGR and calls the whiner line. Cool thread though. You’re not trying to convert anyone but you’ll just try and insult them for having a difference in opinion. 

Edited April 17, 2018 by Bangarang

[Blokestradamus]

1 minute ago, metzelaars_lives said:

What did I say that is debatable?  I realize calling him "elusive" isn't a "fact."  But everything I wrote is accurate.  You are not going to find a more accurate assessment of Josh Allen than what I just posted (also not a fact, I suppose).  

 

Honestly, I'd start with the being good part of the equation. Maybe he was good for a college QB but, as a pro prospect, he's mightily underwhelming.

 

When you reference the chances of a higher completion % if Hill catches a lot more passes, I know what you're getting at. However, his stats aren't what make him inaccurate in my mind. I've seen him absolutely fire swing passes at his backs with horrible placement/touch. His touch in general frightens me but moreso in the short/quick game. Someone else chimed in about this (I forgot who, feel free to jump in if you see this), that there's no rhyme or reason to his misfires. With Darnold/Lamar, I see misses mainly due to their base. With Allen, there's not one consistent element to his inconsistencies. Ergo, how do you fix what seems to be natural inaccuracy with no root cause?

 

Josh has his plus points, of course he does. In most physical regards, he's the prototype. Pound for pound, I'd consider him equal to Lamar as an athlete. Much like Patrick Mahomes, he's definitely got an 'it factor' about him. His highlight reel will leave you drooling because he's not devoid of talent. I don't want to fault yourself or anyone else that likes him for doing so. In another world where he's a plucky underdog that goes on Day 2/3, I'd probably understand taking the plunge on him.

 

I just can't shake this feeling that I've seen him very recently in a Bills jersey because he's nearly word-for-word how I felt about Cardale Jones.

[Epstein's Mother]

26 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

I like 4 QB’s in this draft. Darnold, Allen, Mayfield and Rosen....not in that particular order.

 

Just looking forward to next week so the speculation can be over.

 

I also like these 4 in no particular order and for that reason I would hate to see the Bills give up huge amounts of draft capital to get one of them.  I think the fact that we're 10 days out from the draft and none of us know which player is going #1 tells us that there isn't what could be considered a "can't miss" prospect amongst the 4.  If you remember the 2011 season that was just a tank contest to see who was going to draft Andrew Luck who was universally accepted as the #1 pick months before the draft. 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 17, 2018 by Epstein's Mother

[metzelaars_lives]

9 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Is this another one of those facts you obtained from talking to all the scouts and GMs in the football world? 

 

I have my own opinion that may differ from others so therefore I am some mouth breather who listens to WGR and calls the whiner line. Cool thread though. You’re not trying to convert anyone but you’ll just try and insult them for having a difference in opinion. 

I sensed some smarminess in your post so I responded in a smarmy manner.  No disrespect.  

[CSBill]

Great write-up Metz, I for one, would be very happy with the Bills getting Allen .... I think all the experts agree he has the biggest upside potential of the top QBs in this draft.  Go big or go home Bills!

[metzelaars_lives]

9 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

Honestly, I'd start with the being good part of the equation. Maybe he was good for a college QB but, as a pro prospect, he's mightily underwhelming.

 

When you reference the chances of a higher completion % if Hill catches a lot more passes, I know what you're getting at. However, his stats aren't what make him inaccurate in my mind. I've seen him absolutely fire swing passes at his backs with horrible placement/touch. His touch in general frightens me but moreso in the short/quick game. Someone else chimed in about this (I forgot who, feel free to jump in if you see this), that there's no rhyme or reason to his misfires. With Darnold/Lamar, I see misses mainly due to their base. With Allen, there's not one consistent element to his inconsistencies. Ergo, how do you fix what seems to be natural inaccuracy with no root cause?

 

Josh has his plus points, of course he does. In most physical regards, he's the prototype. Pound for pound, I'd consider him equal to Lamar as an athlete. Much like Patrick Mahomes, he's definitely got an 'it factor' about him. His highlight reel will leave you drooling because he's not devoid of talent. I don't want to fault yourself or anyone else that likes him for doing so. In another world where he's a plucky underdog that goes on Day 2/3, I'd probably understand taking the plunge on him.

 

I just can't shake this feeling that I've seen him very recently in a Bills jersey because he's nearly word-for-word how I felt about Cardale Jones.

Again, he WAS good in 2016.  I think a really key point is that his 2016 and 2017 seasons are entirely different entities.  They were completely different football teams.  That’s why I don’t like the blanket statements about what type of college QB he was or wasn’t.  It’s more nuanced than that.  There isn’t a person on the planet who didn’t think he had a GREAT 2016 for a first year starter.  And to those wondering why he “regressed” in 2017, I’m just trying to offer some clarity on the subject.

[BillsFan4]

Thanks for sharing. Good stuff. 

 

I have warmed up to Allen more as this offseason has went on, and actually liked him a lot last offseason. I remember a lot of discussion of him, Darnold and Rosen going 1, 2 ,3. He definitely seemed to regress this year, but as you said he lost talent around him (more than I realized). 

 

I still think his bust potential is higher than the other top 3 QBs in this draft. 

But I also think his ceiling could be the highest too. He just seems like a very boom or bust prospect to me. 

 

I would still prefer Darnold or Rosen but If we draft Allen I will definitely be on board. I will support him and give him every opportunity to prove he is our guy. 

[mead107]

Reality is Riley Ferguson 

[Shaw66]

Nice post Metz.  

 

I know practically nothing about these guys, but I know what I think is important. Accuracy and decision making.  I wouldn't taken Allen anywhere in the top half of the first round because, as you day, he hasn't shown he's a good decision maker and regardless of what you say about not throwing to running backs, 56% is scary.   

 

Carson Wentz showed in college what he had.  Allen didnt, and I think that makes him a big gamble. 

[Blokestradamus]

1 minute ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Again, he WAS good in 2016.  I think a really key point is that his 2016 and 2017 seasons are entirely different entities.  They were completely different football teams.  That’s why I don’t like the blanket statements about what type of college QB he was or wasn’t.  It’s more nuanced than that.  There isn’t a person on the planet who didn’t think he had a GREAT 2016 for a first year starter.  And to those wondering why he “regressed” in 2017, I’m just trying to offer some clarity on the subject.

 

I appreciate that and it's absolutely correct that they lost a lot of talent. It's certainly a big part of the context surrounding Allen and the narratives that have attached themselves. I think that I missed the boat on Tanner Gentry a little because the stark contrast between him and the guys at WR last season was definitely noticeable.

 

Maybe I'm a little different to most when I watch a QB. I watch them almost in isolation so the supporting cast doesn't sway my grading. I make mental and/or written notes about the talent around them but I grade them in a vacuum. If he makes a good throw and it gets dropped, it's still a good throw. Stats need that context.

 

Maybe some of the misses were timing-based due to new personnel, it's feasible.

[ddaryl]

 

 

No reason to go on a crusade for your guy. Its out of our hands. We will all be forced to pallet whomever 

Edited April 17, 2018 by ddaryl

[metzelaars_lives]

5 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

I appreciate that and it's absolutely correct that they lost a lot of talent. It's certainly a big part of the context surrounding Allen and the narratives that have attached themselves. I think that I missed the boat on Tanner Gentry a little because the stark contrast between him and the guys at WR last season was definitely noticeable.

 

Maybe I'm a little different to most when I watch a QB. I watch them almost in isolation so the supporting cast doesn't sway my grading. I make mental and/or written notes about the talent around them but I grade them in a vacuum. If he makes a good throw and it gets dropped, it's still a good throw. Stats need that context.

 

Maybe some of the misses were timing-based due to new personnel, it's feasible.

Yes dude!  Tanner Gentry was INSANE in 2016!  Jacob Hollister was playing in the Super Bowl for the Patriots.  Chase Roullier was the starting center for the Redskins by year’s end.  And Brian Hill was playing on MNF for the Bengals.  All gone.  That 2016 team is one of my favorite sports teams ever.

Edited April 17, 2018 by metzelaars_lives

[JohnC]

24 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Good read. Allen could beat the odds and become an NFL QB. But I don't want to be the team that bets on it. I hope the Browns like him, paving the way for us to go get Darnold.

I would take Darnold ahead of him but the mere fact that he is being considered taken at the top of the draft(at least it seems that way) tells you that he is under serious consideration of being in the top group. 

 

Even when he is being considered near the top of the qb listing it is typically acknowledged that he needs more development time than some of the other top tier qbs in the class. Few people are saying otherwise. If a team wants immediate help at qb then that team shouldn't select him. If a team is willing to invest a year or two or even more then he is well worth taking because of the upside potential.