Kirby Jackson Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, cle23 said: There was only one other trade into the top two that didn't add at least 120% value and that was the trade from 3 to 2 last year. No chance that Cleveland does not get a huge return while giving up 1 & 4. Adding a random 4th rounder is worth next to nothing. I like the creativity and understand that this is a Bills' board so they are going to get the best deal, but none of these trades have any chance of actually happening at the values shown. Cleveland is not moving out of the first pick to break even or anywhere near even. Then they can stay at 1 and take the same guy. That’s the point. Whatever they are getting is free at this point. Allen at 1 is not better for them than Allen at 2. Chubb at 6 isn’t worse than Chubb at 4. Picks 22 + 65 are better than pick 35 though. If they decide to stay put and take those guys, so be it. They are the Browns for a reason. 1
cle23 Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, PIZ said: Seems to be the talk of the Town. That trade actually makes sense. I honestly don't love it but the value is there and Cleveland could package some of their 4 second-rounders to move back up from 12 while still getting a first next year and pick 65 back.
HappyDays Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: did a longer post on it a while back, let me dig that up. I went through the exercise of valuing all of the pick for pick trades with 3 different charts before deciding to use the one below exclusively moving forward because the rest didn't work at least half of the time... The only mistake you get a lot with this one is that people don't factor in premiums for the top 10, top 5, or top 3 ranges so they dismiss it. According to that chart 12 and 22 alone are worth the #1 overall pick. Even if you do a 140% premium, both our 2nd rounders in addition would easily get us there, and that would be the highest premium paid in a long time. That doesn't seem right to me.
Kirby Jackson Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 Just now, cle23 said: Cleveland is saying no. They would probably honestly laugh. Why would they be throwing picks into a trade down especially a high second-rounder? Yes they could still get Allen at 2 but there is absolutely no guarantee that Chubb would be there at 6. They could probably get much higher value trading 4 outright. The points are close according to the charts. They may not get Chubb (or Barkley at 6). That would mean that the Giants took one and the Broncos took the other. I think that the Broncos are taking a QB or Nelson. That’s the gamble that the Browns would be taking. They’d be giving up a high 2nd (35) for the 1st pick of the 3rd (65) AND a 1st (22). The only risk that they are taking on is that the Broncos AND Giants take Barkley and Chubb. If that happens the Browns can get on the phone with the Cardinals, Dolphins and anyone else looking for a QB and auction of the 6th pick. The players are all that matter at this point. If you can get the guys that you want and assets you do it. The assumptions that I am making in this thread are based on the rumors out there. The Giants want Barkley, the Bills Darnold, the Browns Allen & Chubb, the Jets Mayfield and the Colts want to trade down. If all of those are true, basically the Browns and Giants can force the Bills to relinquish assets and still walk away with the guys that they are taking otherwise. If they overplay their hands though they get those guys without the extra assets.
Will-GM-for-food Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, PIZ said: Seems to be the talk of the Town. So Bills are picking at: 1, 56, 96, 121, 166, 187 Get a Franchise QB and still have the picks to fill holes like LB and WR. Enough to please everybody?
PastorMKC Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, PIZ said: Seems to be the talk of the Town. Like Someone said earlier I can't wait until the Draft gets here
BillsFan17 Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 I'll say this, I can't remember the last time a "hoax" or a purely made up situation got this much play from this many big players in the media.
Dr. Who Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: The points are close according to the charts. They may not get Chubb (or Barkley at 6). That would mean that the Giants took one and the Broncos took the other. I think that the Broncos are taking a QB or Nelson. That’s the gamble that the Browns would be taking. They’d be giving up a high 2nd (35) for the 1st pick of the 3rd (65) AND a 1st (22). The only risk that they are taking on is that the Broncos AND Giants take Barkley and Chubb. If that happens the Browns can get on the phone with the Cardinals, Dolphins and anyone else looking for a QB and auction of the 6th pick. The players are all that matter at this point. If you can get the guys that you want and assets you do it. The assumptions that I am making in this thread are based on the rumors out there. The Giants want Barkley, the Bills Darnold, the Browns Allen & Chubb, the Jets Mayfield and the Colts want to trade down. If all of those are true, basically the Browns and Giants can force the Bills to relinquish assets and still walk away with the guys that they are taking otherwise. If they overplay their hands though they get those guys without the extra assets. I hope Dorsey is more reasonable than Cle23 who is not stupid, but overplaying his hand, imo.
PIZ Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 I wonder if I should start checking out Sam Darnold YouTube highlights? Haven't watched any yet because I didn't think he was a possibility. Wanted him since he lit up PSU. Looked like a man amongst boys.
Kirby Jackson Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Will-GM-for-food said: So Bills are picking at: 1, 56, 96, 121, 166, 187 Get a Franchise QB and still have the picks to fill holes like LB and WR. Enough to please everybody? Not me, the 2019 pick is the last asset added. You are talking about top 10 pick in an elite front 7 draft. I’m not giving that pick up unless it is a last resort. You can easily get a deal done without it.
cle23 Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: The points are close according to the charts. They may not get Chubb (or Barkley at 6). That would mean that the Giants took one and the Broncos took the other. I think that the Broncos are taking a QB or Nelson. That’s the gamble that the Browns would be taking. They’d be giving up a high 2nd (35) for the 1st pick of the 3rd (65) AND a 1st (22). The only risk that they are taking on is that the Broncos AND Giants take Barkley and Chubb. If that happens the Browns can get on the phone with the Cardinals, Dolphins and anyone else looking for a QB and auction of the 6th pick. The players are all that matter at this point. If you can get the guys that you want and assets you do it. The assumptions that I am making in this thread are based on the rumors out there. The Giants want Barkley, the Bills Darnold, the Browns Allen & Chubb, the Jets Mayfield and the Colts want to trade down. If all of those are true, basically the Browns and Giants can force the Bills to relinquish assets and still walk away with the guys that they are taking otherwise. If they overplay their hands though they get those guys without the extra assets. That or the Bills get shut out completely ,stay at Pick 12 and not get a top quarterback. Cleveland picks at 1, New York picks at 2, the Jets pick a quarterback at 3, and Cleveland auctions off the 4th pick to all the quarterback needy teams out there. The Bills are the team trying to trade up and desperate for a QB. Edited April 17, 2018 by cle23
Deranged Rhino Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 1 minute ago, PIZ said: I wonder if I should start checking out Sam Darnold YouTube highlights? Haven't watched any yet because I didn't think he was a possibility. Wanted him since he lit up PSU. Looked like a man amongst boys. You won't be disappointed. He's been a guy I've wanted for the past two years now. (not that that means much lol) He'd be a great fit in Buffalo.
Kirby Jackson Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: I hope Dorsey is more reasonable than Cle23 who is not stupid, but overplaying his hand, imo. If not he can take Allen at 1 and Chubb at 4. Barkley will go 2 and Darnold 3. The Bills will trade up to 6 with the Colts and get Rosen or Baker. This is the lowest that the Bills will pick IMO. That is the nice thing about having all of that draft capital. They can put together a package that no one can compete with. 2
cle23 Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Not me, the 2019 pick is the last asset added. You are talking about top 10 pick in an elite front 7 draft. I’m not giving that pick up unless it is a last resort. You can easily get a deal done without it. No team is trading from 12 to 1 without giving up a future first. A GM should get fired immediately if he does that trade. 1
Dr. Who Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 1 minute ago, cle23 said: That or the bills he gets shut out completely stay at Pick 12 and not get a talk quarterback. Cleveland picks at 1, New York picks at 2, the Jets pick a quarterback at 3, and Cleveland auctions off the 4th pick to all the quarterback needy teams out there. The Bills are the team trying to trade up and desperate for a QB. They won't get shut out, they just won't get Darnold. Unlikely Giants take a qb. If Browns, Jets, and Broncos (unlikely, but possible) go for qb, one of the top four is available 6 - 10. Bills will invest less and get a qb.
PastorMKC Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 1 minute ago, cle23 said: No team is trading from 12 to 1 without giving up a future first. A GM should get fired immediately if he does that trade. That's what I have been saying ...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, cle23 said: That or the Bills get shut out completely ,stay at Pick 12 and not get a top quarterback. Cleveland picks at 1, New York picks at 2, the Jets pick a quarterback at 3, and Cleveland auctions off the 4th pick to all the quarterback needy teams out there. The Bills are the team trying to trade up and desperate for a QB. That won’t happen because the Bills will go to 6 (as illustrated above). If the Giants go QB at 2 the Bills will trade up to 4. The Bills package blows everyone else’s away. I know that you don’t want to hear that the Browns won’t be getting 3 firsts but they won’t. Tell me a package that the Browns are getting better than 12, 22 and 53 for the 4th pick?
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