PIZ Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 15 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: Next Thursday can't come soon enough can it? I am spent...........
BuffaloHokie13 Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 (edited) 16 minutes ago, cle23 said: What are the point values from the St.Louis Washington trade from 2012? I did a longer post on it a while back, let me dig that up. I went through the exercise of valuing all of the pick for pick trades with 3 different charts before deciding to use the one below exclusively moving forward because the rest didn't work at least half of the time... The only mistake you get a lot with this one is that people don't factor in premiums for the top 10, top 5, or top 3 ranges so they dismiss it. 49ers: #2 (2600) - 93.83 Bears: #3, #67, & #111 (2527) - 107.46 115% Top 3 Browns: #12 (1200) - 60.6 Texans: #25 & Future 1st (1140) - 61.16 101% Top 12 Bills: #10 (1300) - 64.58 Chiefs: #27, #91, & Future 1st (1236) - 66.35 103% Top 10 Browns: #8 & #176 (1421) - 72.05 Titans: #15, #76, Future 2nd (1450) - 75.5 105% Top 10 Bucs: #9 (1350) - 67.66 Bears: #11 & #106 (1332) - 68.05 101% Top 10 Titans: #1, #113, #177 (3088.6) - 105.84 Rams: #15, #43, #45, #76, Future 1, Future 3 (2670) - 136.04 129% Top 3 Browns: #2, Future 5th/Conditional Comp 4th (2621) - 94.98 Eagles: #8, #77, #100, Future 1, Future 2 (2159) - 113.51 120% Top 3 Rams: #2 (2600) - 93.83 Redskins: #6, #39, Future 1st, Future (2 years) 1st (2720) - 135.39 144% Top 3 So there's 8 Trades into the top 12 picks since 2011. All of them work value-wise with the base 100 chart above and there is a relative standard established on top 10 vs top 3. Only 2 of the 8 make sense using JJ values. Edited April 17, 2018 by BuffaloHokie13 Found the old post. 1 1
Kirby Jackson Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Pre1236 said: The colts got 3 2nds to drop 2 spots but now will settle for 1 to drop 6 spots? They are at 6 now and not 3. Pick 35 is almost a late 1. They want to go back supposedly. I don’t think that it will cost much more. FWIW on the JJ chart 12 & 35 = 1,750 and 6 = 1,600
PIZ Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, ddaryl said: Yeah I get creative, you need to hover I only do that on the terlit. 1
Kirby Jackson Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, napmaster said: Giants say no. A mid second round pick and a 2019 2nd (treated as a 3rd) to move from #2 to #4. Jets/Colts trade indicates they need at least 53 and 56, maybe more. Except they know that 3 QBs are going before them. They either take Barkley at 2 or take those 2 picks and like it (while still getting Barkley). Before this day is over, you will all agree with me that this 4 team trade is the best deal for everyone. Edited April 17, 2018 by Kirby Jackson
TheFunPolice Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 (edited) If the Bills can't or don't want to do this trade up, they could always move up twice and take 2 players in round 1. Package 12 and something to move up to 7 or 8 to take a QB Package 22 and something to move up a few spots for a LB, DL or OL Or even drop down from 22 and pick up a couple picks Edited April 17, 2018 by TheFunPolice
KOKBILLS Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, napmaster said: Giants say no. A mid second round pick and a 2019 2nd (treated as a 3rd) to move from #2 to #4. Jets/Colts trade indicates they need at least 53 and 56, maybe more. Not if they have decided on Barkley and are going to take him at #2 regardless... So they would turn down extra picks due to perceived value only to take the guy they would get at #4 anyway at #2??? For what? Pride?
cle23 Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 33 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: It certainly can’t. In fact, I wonder if it is a 4 team trade? Browns get: 2, 6, 22, 65 Bills get: 1 Giants get: 4, 53, 2019 2nd Colts get: 12, 35 Who says no? Cleveland. Pick 22 and 65 to move down from 1 and 4 and give up 35?
buffalobloodfloridahome Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 2 hours ago, gobills1212 said: The implication is that's it with the shuffle The same one as this thread is based on? Do you know something? I don't know if it is the same one that this thread is based on, but It seemed to make the most sense for everybody.
Foxx Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 39 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: It certainly can’t. In fact, I wonder if it is a 4 team trade? Browns get: 2, 6, 22, 65 Bills get: 1 Giants get: 4, 53, 2019 2nd Colts get: 12, 35 Who says no? Bucky said it would reshuffle the top 5, so wouldn't the Broncos have to in there somewhere?
Mrbojanglezs Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 (edited) 17 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said: This thread is like crack. Edited April 17, 2018 by Mrbojanglezs 1 5
BuffaloHokie13 Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 21 minutes ago, cle23 said: Cleveland. Pick 22 and 65 to move down from 1 and 4 and give up 35? Updated my previous response if you're still curious.
Kirby Jackson Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 19 minutes ago, cle23 said: Cleveland. Pick 22 and 65 to move down from 1 and 4 and give up 35? Maybe but at 1 & 4 they are probably going Allen & Chubb. I think that they get those 2 plus 22 and 65 (while sacrificing 35). They are the team that I think hesitates the most. The Browns would give up 5,350 on the JJ chart and get back 5,245. Maybe that is where you throw a 2019 4th (we have 2). FWIW, I really don’t like the old trade chart so I’m not sure why I keep using it.
PastorMKC Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said: It certainly can’t. In fact, I wonder if it is a 4 team trade? Browns get: 2, 6, 22, 65 Bills get: 1 Giants get: 4, 53, 2019 2nd Colts get: 12, 35 Who says no? Sorry but you aren't trading for #1 without giving a future 1 ... JMHO
JohnC Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 59 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Except they know that 3 QBs are going before them. They either take Barkley at 2 or take those 2 picks and like it (while still getting Barkley). Before this day is over, you will all agree with me that this 4 team trade is the best deal for everyone. You are a recalcitrant.
Kirby Jackson Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, PastorMKC said: Sorry but you aren't trading for #1 without giving a future 1 ... JMHO Who is saying no to my proposed trade and why? Of course they want that pick but if they can add 22 & 65 while still getting the guys that they’d pick anyways they’d have to consider it. That was @KOKBILLS point earlier. It isn’t a hypothetical at this point. They are trying to figure out how the draft will unfold. There are names now associated with those spots. If the Browns are going to go Allen 1 & Chubb 4, why wouldn’t they rather go Allen 2, Chubb 6 and add 22 & 65 (while subtracting 35)? 3 minutes ago, JohnC said: You are a recalcitrant. 1
cle23 Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 11 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Maybe but at 1 & 4 they are probably going Allen & Chubb. I think that they get those 2 plus 22 and 65 (while sacrificing 35). They are the team that I think hesitates the most. The Browns would give up 5,350 on the JJ chart and get back 5,245. Maybe that is where you throw a 2019 4th (we have 2). FWIW, I really don’t like the old trade chart so I’m not sure why I keep using it. There was only one other trade into the top two that didn't add at least 120% value and that was the trade from 3 to 2 last year. No chance that Cleveland does not get a huge return while giving up 1 & 4. Adding a random 4th rounder is worth next to nothing. I like the creativity and understand that this is a Bills' board so they are going to get the best deal, but none of these trades have any chance of actually happening at the values shown. Cleveland is not moving out of the first pick to break even or anywhere near even. 1
PIZ Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 44 minutes ago, Foxx said: Bucky said it would reshuffle the top 5, so wouldn't the Broncos have to in there somewhere? That's what I was wondering. I bet Elway / Keenum would love to have McCoy. They did just cut CJ Anderson.
cle23 Posted April 17, 2018 Posted April 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Who is saying no to my proposed trade and why? Of course they want that pick but if they can add 22 & 65 while still getting the guys that they’d pick anyways they’d have to consider it. That was @KOKBILLS point earlier. It isn’t a hypothetical at this point. They are trying to figure out how the draft will unfold. There are names now associated with those spots. If the Browns are going to go Allen 1 & Chubb 4, why wouldn’t they rather go Allen 2, Chubb 6 and add 22 & 65 (while subtracting 35)? Cleveland is saying no. They would probably honestly laugh. Why would they be throwing picks into a trade down especially a high second-rounder? Yes they could still get Allen at 2 but there is absolutely no guarantee that Chubb would be there at 6. They could probably get much higher value trading 4 outright.
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