Would this regime survive a trade up miss at QB?

[oldmanfan]

Just now, DriveFor1Outta5 said:

Absolutely. The problem is that without a QB there will be quite a bit of losing. This results in the aforementioned demise of the regime. This team achieved a miracle 9-7 campaign with Tyrod at QB. McCarron may very well be a downgrade. That means if we don’t get a QB, losing football will return to Buffalo. 

Or McCarron very well may be an upgrade.  There's been approximately ten million posts about this draft and taking a QB since the close of last season, and yet the answer remains the same.  If they see a guy they think they have to have they'll move up.  If not they won't. Which is as it should be.

[DriveFor1Outta5]

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Or McCarron very well may be an upgrade.  There's been approximately ten million posts about this draft and taking a QB since the close of last season, and yet the answer remains the same.  If they see a guy they think they have to have they'll move up.  If not they won't. Which is as it should be.

He could be an upgrade. I just find it unlikely that McCarron will be the long term answer. There isn’t much about him that projects to better than a second string QB imo. If he does become the franchise QB then it’s obvious the regime will be safe. That scenario seems more unlikely than finding the future of the franchise in the draft. That’s why I’m of the opinion that the regime will be done if they don’t hit on a QB in the draft. My argument is simply framed by my personal opinion of McCarron. 

Edited April 15, 2018 by DriveFor1Outta5

[Happy]

Beane and McDermott will need to nail the QB pick, especially if they trade up.  If they trade up and miss (which will be apparent in a couple of seasons) they are probably finished since there will be a lot of losing; with multiple picks given up in lieu of filling in a lot of holes.  I'm sure there is a guy they're targeting, and if the opportunity is there they'll trade up.  If not, I suspect they possibly trade back and and get option B at QB later in the first, or possibly later rounds.

 

Either way, there will be a lot of griping around here no matter who they pick.  I trust Beane and McDermott, they have a plan and they're acting on it.  I think they will be cautious and will not trade up for a "well, he's decent and could work, but not our first choice" guy; there is not room for error given the Bills position needs.  I know I'm not introducing anything new and exciting, but I think this is the reality of how the draft will go.

[xRUSHx]

IMO this staff will get criticized badly for not pulling the trigger on trying for a better QB from the draft, they waited last season and made us think it was to build capital to do it this draft while also making fans get stuck watching Rex choice at QB another season. Now if they fail to try again for a franchise worthy QB from the draft  and then you add in next years draft that will have nothing for us to draft a QB(expected to be a very bad draft for drafting a QB) then I expect fans to turn on them.

 

Remember how Chan looked his last season well IMO no top QB to give the fans for the 2019 season will make this staff the walking dead in 2020 or earlier IMO. Now if they spend big on grabbing a top QB prospect from this draft and the kid fails bad in 2-3 years then IMO fans will give this staff props for trying and will expect them to draft another top  prospect in 2020 or 2021 to try again.

 

IMO without pulling the trigger to go for a top QB prospect makes them like all the others that have been here, add in this draft has a good 6 to pick from makes it a even bigger burn if they fail at going for one. IMO the cards are laid out they either do or do not, sadly IMO and many others the do not is not a option if they want to make it past 2019-2020.

 

IMO most fans will gladly take two steps back in 2018 to build a team around a franchise worthy QB era to start in 2019.

 

With a young top rookie pushing McC he might end up a solid enough guy to trade that could pay this team back a pick when the rookie is ready to take over.

Edited April 15, 2018 by xRUSHx

[oldmanfan]

23 minutes ago, DriveFor1Outta5 said:

He could be an upgrade. I just find it unlikely that McCarron will be the long term answer. There isn’t much about him that projects to better than a second string QB imo. If he does become the franchise QB then it’s obvious the regime will be safe. That scenario seems more unlikely than finding the future of the franchise in the draft. That’s why I’m of the opinion that the regime will be done if they don’t hit on a QB in the draft. My argument is simply framed by my personal opinion of McCarron. 

I have every expectation they pick a QB in round 1.  The question is whether they see enough difference between guys that they feel they have to move up to get one they like.

[Nihilarian]

38 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Correct. They’ve traded too many assets not to take a shot.

 

If they get Darnold or Rosen and they flop, the regime will be fine. 

 

If they trade up for Allen, or stay put for Rudolph/Jackson, and those flop, they’ll probably not be around very long. 

1

How in the world does that make sense? Are you suggesting that Allen will out of the top five? Whereas Darnold, Rosen will be in the top three or something to that effect?

 

Who knows where these guys will fall. That is "IF" they fall at all. Allen, Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield could all go in the top five.

 

What will kill this regime is giving away all the first, second and third round picks in this year's draft and their 2018 first round pick to go up to the #2 spot. Then see that QB fail whoever it is. 

 

Looking at guys like Aaron Rodgers to Jimmy Garappolo it strikes me that any quality QB if given time to properly develop on a good team should eventually succeed as a starting QB. Drafting Jackson, or Rudolph at #22 and allowing them to sit for a year to develop while the team upgrades the offensive line could be the best solution. And in 2019 either could emerge as a quality starter.

[xRUSHx]

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I have every expectation they pick a QB in round 1.  The question is whether they see enough difference between guys that they feel they have to move up to get one they like.

If they go the Whaley way and wait for a QB to fall to them then IMO expect the same OBD fail at drafting one of the top QBs because other teams will make it happen just like the Jets already did in making sure they will get one of the top 3.

 

I would like to think this staff is different and waiting for a QB to fall from the sky is not different it's the same fail that has been going on since Kelly retired. Grow a pair and go for it, IMO fans will respect that more then trying to build around a backup QB like all the other failed staffs did and got fired.

Edited April 15, 2018 by xRUSHx

[NoSaint]

3 hours ago, KzooMike said:

A miss would mostly likely leave us out of the playoffs for a few years as the QB is given every opportunity. It seems crazy to think a GM/HC who have shown very positive things early could just as easily be on the hot seat two or three years from now with a miss. Overblowing it or do you agree?

In a very general sense, sure. But you’ve oversimplified it.

 

how they handle the qb position will define them. They have already made some very bold moves. Depending on the dynamics of the last draft- this regime in some part traded out of selecting a qb. Then traded their starter for a day two pick. Then were the last to move in free agency.... in large part they pulled all the safety nets out from under them. 

 

If they hit it - with great risk comes great reward. If they miss, there’s not a lot protecting them from hitting the concrete.

 

Edited April 15, 2018 by NoSaint

[xRUSHx]

18 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

 

 

Looking at guys like Aaron Rodgers to Jimmy Garappolo it strikes me that any quality QB if given time to properly develop on a good team should eventually succeed as a starting QB. Drafting Jackson, or Rudolph at #22 and allowing them to sit for a year to develop while the team upgrades the offensive line could be the best solution. And in 2019 either could emerge as a quality starter.

Funny you point to two teams that had a franchise QB(HOF QBs at that) for those two to learn behind. It does not work for a later picked QB most of the time when a team does not have a franchise worthy QB to sit and learn behind, let alone a HOF QB to sit behind.

Edited April 15, 2018 by xRUSHx

[Mikie2times]

2 hours ago, thurst44 said:

Shown very little? We went to the playoffs a year when we were supposedly "tanking," so yeah might be a bit overblown here. If the team's doing poorly in three years for whatever reason, though, yes, they will probably be on the hot seat b/c that's how it usually works. 

What do you mean shown very little? I never stated that. I don’t have a horse in this race easier as far as thought process. I just thought it was interesting conversation. 

[Misterbluesky]

3 hours ago, KzooMike said:

A miss would mostly likely leave us out of the playoffs for a few years as the QB is given every opportunity. It seems crazy to think a GM/HC who have shown very positive things early could just as easily be on the hot seat two or three years from now with a miss. Overblowing it or do you agree?

There is no doubt this fresh GM is being tested if he's reaching out for a trade up.Count the bullets in the pistol...he's playing Russian Roulette and everybody knows it.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

If I was them, I would be more afraid of surviving NOT moving up. After all the good players they moved last year and all this draft capital/trust the process stuff...You better go up and get a guy. Enough of the excuses. Get a QB.

[Mango]

36 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

How in the world does that make sense? Are you suggesting that Allen will out of the top five? Whereas Darnold, Rosen will be in the top three or something to that effect?

 

Who knows where these guys will fall. That is "IF" they fall at all. Allen, Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield could all go in the top five.

 

What will kill this regime is giving away all the first, second and third round picks in this year's draft and their 2018 first round pick to go up to the #2 spot. Then see that QB fail whoever it is. 

 

Looking at guys like Aaron Rodgers to Jimmy Garappolo it strikes me that any quality QB if given time to properly develop on a good team should eventually succeed as a starting QB. Drafting Jackson, or Rudolph at #22 and allowing them to sit for a year to develop while the team upgrades the offensive line could be the best solution. And in 2019 either could emerge as a quality starter.

 

Im saying Darnold and Rosen are viewed as more NFL ready, prototypical, and safe picks in the draft. That trading up to grab one, and them falling short, is more forgivable because of it. 

 

If they trade up for Allen, and Allen fails, they purged the roster to take a shot on a guy with a ton of growing to do in order to become a good NFL QB. 

 

If they stay put and grab somebody with their current 12 or 22, who is considered 2nd their and they miss, they will be flamed for purging the roster  only to take a second teir QB, and fill roster holes that were self created. 

[Nihilarian]

7 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

Funny you point to two teams that had a franchise QB(HOF QBs at that) for those two to learn behind. It does not work for a later picked QB when a team does not have a franchise worthy QB to sit and learn behind, let alone a HOF QB to sit behind.

 

Those two just came to mind first. Both the Packers and the Patriots have both had QB's that didn't pan out too.

 

Rodger Staubach drafted in 64, served his navy tour and didn't play until 69 and sat behind Craig Morton for two years

 

How about Tyrod Taylor a 6th rounder who got to sit behind Flacco on a good team in Baltimore and eventually developed into a starting NFL QB.

 

I think it's far more important to have a quality coaching staff, a good team in place over a HoF QB. Most young QB's that fail usually do so because they are thrown into the fire with not much of a supporting cast and the coaches are usually clueless too.

 

Looking at the current state of the offensive line I'm hoping the Bills don't start any rookie or even second year Peterman behind that line. 

 

 

[Augie]

It’s interesting how almost any thread can turn into a “get the QB” vs “fill the holes” thread. It’s like politics. Take a side and half the people love you, and half the people hate you. But in politics if you steal that 1% near the middle, you win. In football, you need a playoff run to win....that’s all that counts. 

 

 

Win and people are all on board! 

 

(Regardless of what camp they came from.) 

[Nihilarian]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Im saying Darnold and Rosen are viewed as more NFL ready, prototypical, and safe picks in the draft. That trading up to grab one, and them falling short, is more forgivable because of it. 

 

If they trade up for Allen, and Allen fails, they purged the roster to take a shot on a guy with a ton of growing to do in order to become a good NFL QB. 

 

If they stay put and grab somebody with their current 12 or 22, who is considered 2nd their and they miss, they will be flamed for purging the roster  only to take a second teir QB, and fill roster holes that were self created. 

Ahh, I see your points. Thanks.

 

I think purging the roster and making the trades they made regardless of taking a QB in the top five were great moves. Imagine getting nothing for Watkins that cost the team two first or worse yet 18 mill per, YIKES! Glenn was overpaid IMO as was Dareus. Glimore wasn't worth the money either. The only guy I feel bad about losing was Darby. 

 

I'm fine with a non-top 5 QB if that's the way the draft falls. Rudolph, Jackson, Mike White, Luke Faulk, Kyle Lauletta or if one of the top four falls out of the top six.

 

I'd rather see a top quality center, right tackle, left guard drafted over a QB that everyone wants to start right away and then watch him run for his life all season. Perhaps end up on a trash heap like so many of Cleveland's first rounders. 

[Mango]

9 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Ahh, I see your points. Thanks.

 

I think purging the roster and making the trades they made regardless of taking a QB in the top five were great moves. Imagine getting nothing for Watkins that cost the team two first or worse yet 18 mill per, YIKES! Glenn was overpaid IMO as was Dareus. Glimore wasn't worth the money either. The only guy I feel bad about losing was Darby. 

 

I'm fine with a non-top 5 QB if that's the way the draft falls. Rudolph, Jackson, Mike White, Luke Faulk, Kyle Lauletta or if one of the top four falls out of the top six.

 

I'd rather see a top quality center, right tackle, left guard drafted over a QB that everyone wants to start right away and then watch him run for his life all season. Perhaps end up on a trash heap like so many of Cleveland's first rounders. 

 

 

Not to take too deep of a dive into this. I was fine with Sammy, we weren’t going to re-sign. Gilmore has played well, but we weren’t gonna fork that cash over, and frankly didn’t have the room.

 

I do think this roster is better with Darby, Dareus, Seymour, and Glenn on it though. We now have large holes at DT, OL, and Nickel/CB depth.

 

Glenn in particular is frustrating if they don’t find a QB. Dawkins was brought in to play RT, Groy could have replaced Wood, fingers crossed for a Miller resdurgence with change in scheme. There is nothing wrong with depth. 

 

The current model is unsustainable if they don’t make a play at a big time QB.  

 

I do agree that, unless the staff feels VERY confident in whatever they patch together for an OL, the rookie should sit. It’s not a recipe for success. 

Edited April 15, 2018 by Mango

[billspro]

I think they could, as long as the pick isn't Josh Allen. The fan base supports their decision to go get a QB, even if it is a swing and a miss. The good thing is if you miss on a QB you will probably be in position to draft another one in a couple of seasons.

[Misterbluesky]

30 minutes ago, Augie said:

 In football, you need a playoff run to win....that’s all that counts. 

 

 

Win and people are all on board! 

 

(Regardless of what camp they came from.) 

This is why Beane won't make a big splash on just one college draftee..it would be idiotic to do so. A few months ago everybody said Rosen or I will cry like a baby...now,he could very well be there at 12. Rosen is a spoiled California boy who punked on fast food workers...blue collar,hard working folks that fight to keep food on their supper tables....Rosen ain't Buffalo!  

[Augie]

4 minutes ago, Misterbluesky said:

This is why Beane won't make a big splash on just one college draftee..it would be idiotic to do so. A few months ago everybody said Rosen or I will cry like a baby...now,he could very well be there at 12. Rosen is a spoiled California boy who punked on fast food workers...blue collar,hard working folks that fight to keep food on their supper tables....Rosen ain't Buffalo!  

 

I’ve never met him, much less spent hours or days with him. I pray he’s smart enough and young and flexible enough to fit in if he ends up in WNY. I’m bigger on the non-judging thing than I used to be. We really don’t know much about a very young guy we’ve never met.