Fadingpain Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 All of this guy's information hinges on Russ Brandon telling ultra-high level top-secret stuff to a buddy, who happens to be this guy's boss. If that's true, Russ should be fired immediately. Well, he should have been fired a long time ago, but you see my point. I assume it's all made up or something is off here so no big deal.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 Okay, who's ready to put some numbers to the crazy? Here's everyone's picks in the first 3 rounds: Bills: 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 - Total Value 160.72 Browns: 1, 4, 33, 35, 64 - Total Value 260.21 Giants: 2, 34, 66, 69 - Total value 149.96 Bills trade 12, 22, 53, 65, and a 2019 2nd to the Browns for 1 - 146.51 vs 100 (146%) Browns trade 4, 35, 53 and 65 to the Giants for 2 & 69 - 147.17 vs 106.26 (138%) After the madness: Bills: 1, 56, 96 - Total Value 123.97 Browns: 2, 12, 22, 33, 64, 69, Bills 2019 2nd - Total Value 265.81 Giants: 4, 34, 35, 53, 65, 66 - Total Value 190.87 Hopefully everyone else is having a productive Friday! 3 3
PIZ Posted April 13, 2018 Author Posted April 13, 2018 I'm not an expert on Twitter, as I just read it. Does this mean Sal M actually liked this kid's tweet?
NoSaint Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) So the browns go from 1&4 to 2&12..... theres several more day two picks we give up if not next years 1st for us to finance that move. What is the incentive for us to get to 1 if neither 1 or 2 wants Darnold? At that point we could let them take Allen first and spend less moving up Edited April 13, 2018 by NoSaint
Fadingpain Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 16 minutes ago, stony said: It's fun to piss on these scenarios, but it's not that crazy. Based on the "Cleveland war room" thread, maybe the Browns really like Mayfield. If they can grab a couple extra picks, why not? Giants still get Chubb/Barkley. As for draft season ridiculousness, I only rate this a 5/10. I agree it's not totally crazy; it all hinges on who these teams really want and what they REALLY want to do. If you are happy to get X but the draft value of your pick is greater than X, it only makes sense to trade, increase your draft capital, while retaining what you need to get what you want.
NoSaint Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, PIZ said: I'm not an expert on Twitter, as I just read it. Does this mean Sal M actually liked this kid's tweet? It means someone likely showed him or he saw here and thought it was a fine enough way to get some traffic this afternoon
Fadingpain Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, NoSaint said: So the browns go from 1&4 to 2&12..... theres several more day two picks we give up if not next years 1st for us to finance that move. What is the incentive for us to get to 1 if neither 1 or 2 wants Darnold? At that point we could let them take Allen first and spend less moving up See the thread here where allegedly 2/3 of the teams in the league have Darnold as the #1 QB in the draft. I think he is the #1 target. I think you have to pick #1, maybe #2 to get him. Anything lower no dice. Edited April 13, 2018 by Fadingpain
NoSaint Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 Just now, Fadingpain said: See the thread here where allegedly 2/3 of the teams in the league have Darnold as the #1 QB in the draft. I think he is the #1 target and if that is the guy we want. I think you have to pick #1, maybe #2 to get him. Anything lower no dice. So you think that Cleveland and the giants are 100% all in on Cleveland to two? Or are they willing to trade out of 1 and hope Allen’s there at 4?
Royale with Cheese Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Okay, who's ready to put some numbers to the crazy? Here's everyone's picks in the first 3 rounds: Bills: 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 - Total Value 160.72 Browns: 1, 4, 33, 35, 64 - Total Value 260.21 Giants: 2, 34, 66, 69 - Total value 149.96 Bills trade 12, 22, 53, 65, and a 2019 2nd to the Browns for 1 - 146.51 vs 100 (146%) Browns trade 4, 35, 53 and 65 to the Giants for 2 & 69 - 147.17 vs 106.26 (138%) After the madness: Bills: 1, 56, 96 - Total Value 123.97 Browns: 2, 12, 22, 33, 64, 69, Bills 2019 2nd - Total Value 265.81 Giants: 4, 34, 35, 53, 65, 66 - Total Value 190.87 Hopefully everyone else is having a productive Friday! Thanks for doing this....pretty awesome.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, NoSaint said: So the browns go from 1&4 to 2&12..... theres at least 4(?) more day two picks we give up if not next years 1st for us to finance that move. What is the incentive for us to get to 1 if neither 1 or 2 wants Darnold? At that point we could let them take Allen first and spend less moving up I'm not saying I'm right by any means, but take a look at my scenario above. We get to 1 by giving up exactly what was rumored to be the offer to the Giants for #2. I think saying they don't want Darnold is a stretch, but they might like the next guy enough to be convinced to move down. Browns go from 1 & 4 to 2, 12, & 22, still select twice in round 2, gain a 3rd round selection, and gain our 2019 2nd. Giants go from a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 3rds, to a 1st, 3 2nds, and 2 higher 3rds. 1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said: Thanks for doing this....pretty awesome. I really just wanted to see if I could make the numbers work in a way that made sense. It was fun. 1
Chuck Wagon Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) 24 minutes ago, NoSaint said: So the browns go from 1&4 to 2&12..... theres several more day two picks we give up if not next years 1st for us to finance that move. What is the incentive for us to get to 1 if neither 1 or 2 wants Darnold? At that point we could let them take Allen first and spend less moving up A lot of people connected to the Giants say they are taking Darnold if he's there, it's a consistent refrain, it could be complete smoke or it could be legit. It could be a reasonably safe assumption if we want Darnold, we need to go to 1. Once we go to 1 and the Giants know Darnold is off the table, they could be open to dropping to 4 and getting the same player at 2, getting more picks and giving the Jets a little kick while they are at it. Also, the price of 1 vs the price of 2 might not be all that much different. I don't buy the kid has any insider info, but if you do some theory crafting this is a decently logical scenario to arrive at, one I've been kicking over in my own head the last few days. The other problem, if the Browns put the pick up and we don't go get it, then we are really risking getting locked out and watching 4 QBs go top 5 with no chance at any of them. 17 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: I'm not saying I'm right by any means, but take a look at my scenario above. We get to 1 by giving up exactly what was rumored to be the offer to the Giants for #2. I think saying they don't want Darnold is a stretch, but they might like the next guy enough to be convinced to move down. Browns go from 1 & 4 to 2, 12, & 22, still select twice in round 2, gain a 3rd round selection, and gain our 2019 2nd. Giants go from a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 3rds, to a 1st, 3 2nds, and 2 higher 3rds. I really just wanted to see if I could make the numbers work in a way that made sense. It was fun. Good work. I'd give that package without hesitation. I'm sure there's been extensive conversations between the teams. If the Giants say they want to stay top 5 this accomplishes it. If the Browns don't want Darnold, this gives them a chance to recoup value for Darnold while still getting their top guy. It also gives us a chance to get our top guy. Edited April 13, 2018 by Chuck Wagon 3
NoSaint Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Chuck Wagon said: A lot of people connected to the Giants say they are taking Darnold if he's there, it's a consistent refrain, it could be complete smoke or it could be legit. It could be a reasonably safe assumption if we want Darnold, we need to go to 1. Once we go to 1 and the Giants know Darnold is off the table, they could be open to dropping to 4 and getting the same player at 2, getting more picks and giving the Jets a little kick while they are at it. Also, the price of 1 vs the price of 2 might not be all that much different. I don't buy the kid has any insider info, but if you do some theory crafting this is a decently logical scenario to arrive at, one I've been kicking over in my own head the last few days. The other problem, if the Browns put the pick up and we don't go get it, then we are really risking getting locked out and watching 4 QBs go top 5 with no chance at any of them. But if the giants want Darnold badly all they have to say is no to letting Cleveland still get their guy at two.... unless Cleveland is fine waiting til 4 to take what’s left. The giants potentially wanting Darnold seems like a monkey wrench in the trade to 1 to get Darnold plan here.
TaskerTough Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 I love all "my _____ knows someone at the team" rumors. They are the crown jewel of rumors IMHO. This one is particularly good because it plays upon two truths: Beane is a wizard and Brandon is a chatty dope. 1
NoSaint Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: I'm not saying I'm right by any means, but take a look at my scenario above. We get to 1 by giving up exactly what was rumored to be the offer to the Giants for #2. I think saying they don't want Darnold is a stretch, but they might like the next guy enough to be convinced to move down. Browns go from 1 & 4 to 2, 12, & 22, still select twice in round 2, gain a 3rd round selection, and gain our 2019 2nd. Giants go from a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 3rds, to a 1st, 3 2nds, and 2 higher 3rds. I really just wanted to see if I could make the numbers work in a way that made sense. It was fun. Maybe- it just seems in many cases a team in the top few spots is either yes or no on the qb... there’s rarely a lot of “I think he’s my franchise guy but if I could get a rb and a day two lineman instead....”
cle23 Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) 13 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: I'm not saying I'm right by any means, but take a look at my scenario above. We get to 1 by giving up exactly what was rumored to be the offer to the Giants for #2. I think saying they don't want Darnold is a stretch, but they might like the next guy enough to be convinced to move down. Browns go from 1 & 4 to 2, 12, & 22, still select twice in round 2, gain a 3rd round selection, and gain our 2019 2nd. Giants go from a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 3rds, to a 1st, 3 2nds, and 2 higher 3rds. I really just wanted to see if I could make the numbers work in a way that made sense. It was fun. Even by your point total, Cleveland basically breaks even. No one trades out of the 1st pick to break even, and then essentially trade down from 4 too. If they go from 1st and 4th to 2, 12, and 22 and lose 35, they better be getting a huge ransom back. 1st and 2nd next year, and more. Edited April 13, 2018 by cle23
Chuck Wagon Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, NoSaint said: But if the giants want Darnold badly all they have to say is no to letting Cleveland still get their guy at two.... unless Cleveland is fine waiting til 4 to take what’s left. The giants potentially wanting Darnold seems like a monkey wrench in the trade to 1 to get Darnold plan here. IF one is to believe the supposed Browns insider their decision making is pretty well split between Baker and Rosen. They could have all 4 graded at a level where they are comfortable taking any of them and are fine assuming the risk of going to the 4th guy. Personally I tend to believe the Giants Darnold interest is smoke. But I think it's possible we've hammered something out with the Giants and it's contingent upon Darnold, the Giants want to stay top 5 to get Chubb or Barkley, the Browns said "we aren't taking Darnold anyway, give us something and we'll help make this happen". The point I always go back to, if we don't know there's something very possible for one of these QBs, we've wasted A TON of draft prep time. 1
Mrbojanglezs Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 25 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Okay, who's ready to put some numbers to the crazy? Here's everyone's picks in the first 3 rounds: Bills: 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96 - Total Value 160.72 Browns: 1, 4, 33, 35, 64 - Total Value 260.21 Giants: 2, 34, 66, 69 - Total value 149.96 Bills trade 12, 22, 53, 65, and a 2019 2nd to the Browns for 1 - 146.51 vs 100 (146%) Browns trade 4, 35, 53 and 65 to the Giants for 2 & 69 - 147.17 vs 106.26 (138%) After the madness: Bills: 1, 56, 96 - Total Value 123.97 Browns: 2, 12, 22, 33, 64, 69, Bills 2019 2nd - Total Value 265.81 Giants: 4, 34, 35, 53, 65, 66 - Total Value 190.87 Hopefully everyone else is having a productive Friday! Yup. It's a win win win scenario. That is if Cleveland does not want to draft darnold
BuffaloHokie13 Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, cle23 said: Even by your point total, Cleveland basically breaks even. No one trades out of the 1st pick to break even, and then essentially trade down from 4 too. If they go from 1st and 4th to 2, 12, and 22 and lose 35, they better be getting a huge ransom back. 1st and 2nd next year, and more. They didn't essentially trade down from 4, they traded up from 4 to 2. Of course the team that trades back and then back up is going to gain less than the team that only trades back. And Cleveland in this case went from 1, 4, 33, and 35 to 2, 12, 22, and 33, plus they picked up an additional 2nd next year. The cost to go from 6 to 3 was a 1st, 2 2nds, and a future 2nd. The cost I gave for moving from 4 to 2 was a 1st, 2 2nds, and the first pick of the 3rd this year. If you think the Bills price should've been a 2019 1st and 2nd that would be a premium of 68%, which is astronomically higher than even the Jets gave in their deal.
NoSaint Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said: IF one is to believe the supposed Browns insider their decision making is pretty well split between Baker and Rosen. They could have all 4 graded at a level where they are comfortable taking any of them and are fine assuming the risk of going to the 4th guy. Personally I tend to believe the Giants Darnold interest is smoke. But I think it's possible we've hammered something out with the Giants and it's contingent upon Darnold, the Giants want to stay top 5 to get Chubb or Barkley, the Browns said "we aren't taking Darnold anyway, give us something and we'll help make this happen". The point I always go back to, if we don't know there's something very possible for one of these QBs, we've wasted A TON of draft prep time. Youre kind of blending though, no? If we believe this one that says it’s mayfield or Rosen, and combine it with that one that says it’s allen.... at that point is it hearing what you want and ignoring discrepancies out of two already sketchy sources and just running with it? Truly no offense there- I’ve been guilty of just that before.
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