Why Picking Josh Allen Would Be Disasterous

[Domdab99]

Riley Macatee at The ringer has written an interesting article pulling various data points together to show that Josh Allen will likely be a bust. Here is the article.

 

Allen is the embodiment of an old-fashioned, “stats are for losers” approach to evaluating prospects. While draftniks like Mike Mayock and Mel Kiper Jr. rave about Allen’s prototypical size, arm strength, and raw potential, Allen’s production in college gives no indication that he will be a franchise quarterback in the pros. As far as statistical models go, there isn’t a single one that projects Allen as even a first-round pick, much less the top overall player in the draft. And it’s not just his much-maligned completion percentage—let’s take a look under the hood.

 

One interesting chart he uses:

Comparing 2018 QB Prospects

Player	QBASE DYAR Projection	Rosen-Olbrecht	PFF "NFL Throws"	Bill Connelly Success Rate	IQR	Final-Year QBR	Passing S&P+
Baker Mayfield	1st	3rd	2nd	1st	1st	1st	1st
Sam Darnold	4th	1st	1st	2nd	6th	4th	2nd
Josh Rosen	3rd	2nd	4th	6th	5th	5th	5th
Mason Rudolph	5th	6th	3rd	3rd	2nd	3rd	4th
Lamar Jackson	2nd	5th	6th	5th	4th	2nd	3rd
Luke Falk	6th	7th	N/A	4th	3rd	6th	6th
Josh Allen	7th	4th	5th	7th	7th	7th	7th

 

I really don't want the Bills drafting Josh Allen. He's most likely going to be a huge bust. Let's hope the Browns actually do draft him. 

Edited April 13, 2018 by Domdab99

[DC Tom]

Could you make your font bigger?  I can barely read this.

[LeGOATski]

Yeah...he's not good.

[BadLandsMeanie]

Maybe I am missing it, but what are the 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc projections, projecting? Round? Rank among other qb's? What does it mean?

 

[NoSaint]

3 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Maybe I am missing it, but what are the 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc projections, projecting? Round? Rank among other qb's? What does it mean?

 

Appears to be rank, not round. Unless they all conveniently have 1 guy per round 

[Mr_Robotulism]

J.P. Losman 2.0

[Domdab99]

17 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Maybe I am missing it, but what are the 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc projections, projecting? Round? Rank among other qb's? What does it mean?

 

 

read the article

[BadLandsMeanie]

11 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

read the article

I thought you read it. Don't you remember?

[whatdrought]

But isn't saying that looking at just intangibles and not at stats is bad evaluation, kind of the same thing as looking at just stats? Isn't the best way to look at the sum of the parts? 

[metzelaars_lives]

J**** C***** enough already.

[LeGOATski]

7 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

But isn't saying that looking at just intangibles and not at stats is bad evaluation, kind of the same thing as looking at just stats? Isn't the best way to look at the sum of the parts? 

Yes, and we know that a big arm and athletic ability mean nothing if you can't throw the ball accurately or have poor decision-making.

[metzelaars_lives]

5 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Yes, and we know that a big arm and athletic ability mean nothing if you can't throw the ball accurately or have poor decision-making.

Yes, that is true.  However, you don't know that he can't throw the ball accurately, nor that he has poor decision-making.  He was a college QB for two years.  In his first year, he took over for a team that went 2-10 the year before, took them to the MWC Championship game and a pretty big bowl game, going 8-5.  He was named the 2nd team MWC QB and the MWC player of the year going into this last season.  His second year, he lost every skill position player he had- four of whom played in the NFL.  Of course his numbers weren't going to be as good.  I can't wait for this to be over.  When Josh Allen is good, do you guys have to face any sort of music?  This is so tiring.  Biff from Tonawanda knows more than NFL scouts and executives, I get it.

[Dadonkadonk]

Nobody knows including the GMs, the writer, and the OP.  When the greatest QB of all time goes in the sixth round, Blackledge and Eason go before Marino, Leaf and Mirer one pick after Manning and Bledsoe,  and guys like Romo and Warner go undrafted; it proves that none of these guys know who will succeed in the NFL. 

You can not compare Darnold and Allen without comparing the supporting casts.  

Since 2010 Wyoming has had 10 players drafted none higher than the 4th round.  USC has had 99, 21 of which went in the first round.

Drafting a QB every year is the surest means to finding a franchise guy.  Just keep biting the apple no matter what other needs you have.

Can you win without a Brady? Yes. But you need either a generationally great defense or a superior defense and a very very good QB.

[Mat68]

So if Allen becomes a franchise Qb and Mayfield does not, does analytics in football die?  

[NewEra]

Its not a science.  You can’t look at stats to measure someone’s heart, drive and future surrounding cast

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

For me their are only 3 QB's Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen. If we don't get one of those guys I really don't see a potential upgrade at QB in this draft over what we currently have. 

[Domdab99]

Did you guys even read the article? LOL at all of you making statements before doing that. 

 

And to be fair to Allen, while the advanced stats don’t look great, no one can say for sure whether he’ll pan out or be a bust. Stats may not be for losers, but no one would argue that numbers alone make an NFL quarterback. If Allen can piece together his immense talent, he could be the next Brett Favre. If not, he’ll be the next Jake Locker. But in order to draft him no. 1 overall, the Browns would have to ignore every statistical analysis imaginable. As far as analytics go, it’d be the end of the Process in Cleveland.

 

Yes, we all know it's a crap shoot and no one knows for sure. Duh. But all these studies are trying to do one thing: make a coin flip into something less than a coin flip...giving those who do study maybe a 60-40 chance or even better of making the right decision. And guess what? That's the !@#$ing point. 

 

But all we get here is all of the above posts calling me out if Allen is actually good, or saying "nobody knows."
 

And if the Bills actually do pick Allen, I'm going to cheer for him and hope he's Brett Favre and not Jake Locker. 

 

But I'm not going to bet on it. 

 

Edited April 13, 2018 by Domdab99

[LeGOATski]

42 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Yes, that is true.  However, you don't know that he can't throw the ball accurately, nor that he has poor decision-making.  He was a college QB for two years.  In his first year, he took over for a team that went 2-10 the year before, took them to the MWC Championship game and a pretty big bowl game, going 8-5.  He was named the 2nd team MWC QB and the MWC player of the year going into this last season.  His second year, he lost every skill position player he had- four of whom played in the NFL.  Of course his numbers weren't going to be as good.  I can't wait for this to be over.  When Josh Allen is good, do you guys have to face any sort of music?  This is so tiring.  Biff from Tonawanda knows more than NFL scouts and executives, I get it.

This isn't tiring at all. 

 

I get it, though. Life is hard.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

J**** C***** enough already.

 

With what?

 

2 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Yes, that is true.  However, you don't know that he can't throw the ball accurately, nor that he has poor decision-making.  He was a college QB for two years.  In his first year, he took over for a team that went 2-10 the year before, took them to the MWC Championship game and a pretty big bowl game, going 8-5.  He was named the 2nd team MWC QB and the MWC player of the year going into this last season.  His second year, he lost every skill position player he had- four of whom played in the NFL.  Of course his numbers weren't going to be as good.  I can't wait for this to be over.  When Josh Allen is good, do you guys have to face any sort of music?  This is so tiring.  Biff from Tonawanda knows more than NFL scouts and executives, I get it.

 

You need to probably wait at least a year and a half until Allen even sees meaningful regular season action, maybe longer.

 

Don't waste your energy on being so frustrated so early... you have a loooooong time to deal with passing talk about how bad he's likely going to be as a pro until you have any regular season NFL play to use to debunk that belief.

[CEN-CAL17]

I hope this kid turns out to be amazing. Just to prove to everyone they have no clue what they are talking about. 

 

I think he has potential to do so and I’m rooting for him.