last years Chiefs Trade

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

I wouldn’t  have Mahomes ahead of Rosen , Darnold, or Baker 

 

But ahead of Allen by a slim amount

The thing about the Mahomes or Watson discussion relative to the current crop of qbs is that with Mahomes or Watson you could have gotten one of them with your pick last year without worrying about what it would take to get one of the higher rated qbs in this draft, assuming you can make a deal to do so. 

 

When all is said and done it may work out better that we made the deal with KC and used the future first round pick to get a good prospect this year. But the counter argument, and a reasonable argument, is that with a good qb prospect in the fold earlier would we be in a better position to fortify the rest of the roster in this draft? Not an easy call!

[billsfan89]

11 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Either the answer is no, or Doug Whaley is incompetent. We only got one future 1st rd pick and a 2017 3rd  in return for moving from a top 10 pick to 27. Brutal return compared to this year. 

 

The QB's this year are much more valued than last year. Combination of the prospects being more coveted this year and more teams having draft capital to bid on. Mahomes and Watson were rated similar to Lamar Jackson this season. I think the context of the trades are much different. I think the Bills got a decent return. 

[Putin]

11 hours ago, dbflaBill said:

A topic I havent seen talked about much. Is Mahomes a better prospect than what the Bills could possibly get this year? If so any trade up can/would look really foolish. 

Let me ask you this if Mahomes was in his years draft would he be in the top 4 , with Darnold , Mayfield and Rosen ?

I don't think so

[Zerovoltz]

1 minute ago, Putin said:

Let me ask you this if Mahomes was in his years draft would he be in the top 4 , with Darnold , Mayfield and Rosen ?

I don't think so

NFL coaches and front offices would take Mahomes 1 overall knowing what they know at this moment.

[biggerdaddynj]

11 hours ago, Pre1236 said:

Isn't it pretty much accepted McD was running the draft - Whaley put in the work but no way was he in charge of trades at that point. And it was a brutal return.

Thank you for setting the record straight.  Enough with the Whaley blame game. He never had a real chance to run the team (FO never gave him a chance--Rex was the icing on the cake).  

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, biggerdaddynj said:

Thank you for setting the record straight.  Enough with the Whaley blame game. He never had a real chance to run the team (FO never gave him a chance--Rex was the icing on the cake).  

If you are referring to me, I already said that I believe Mahomes and Watson were not valued as high, which was why the return was lower. I said it is either that or he’s incompetent. I believe the former to be true. And no, Sean McDermott wasn’t the one negotiating the trade. He may have made the decision to trade, in fact I would assume that he did. But coaches don’t make the actual deals. Whaley got what he could and McD pulled the trigger. 

[Yav]

No. Mahoney was a reach and KC will be looking for a QB soon.

[Zerovoltz]

Just now, Yav said:

No. Mahoney was a reach and KC will be looking for a QB soon.

 

The Alex Smith die hards even exist on Bills forums apparently.

[Yav]

Just now, Zerovotlz said:

 

The Alex Smith die hards even exist on Bills forums apparently.

No. Smith is what he is, but apparently delusional Chefs fans can be found here.

[Zerovoltz]

Yav, do you really think they will be looking for a QB again soon?  Trading away a good QB like Smith with a year left on his contract at a reasonable 20 million....that doesn't signal they beleive they have the QB....if they weren't sure, or thought he wasn't ready....you know, they could have kept the well established good QB they already had the last 5 years on the roster........that doesn't tell you anything?  It's not even an opinion...just read the tea leaves guy.  

[Putin]

34 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

NFL coaches and front offices would take Mahomes 1 overall knowing what they know at this moment.

 

6 minutes ago, Yav said:

No. Mahoney was a reach and KC will be looking for a QB soon.

Good chance they'll have a top 5 pick next year

[BringBackOrton]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No I didnt, I thought Mahomes a 2nd rounder in most years.  I liked Trubisky and Watson, I just preferred going D last draft first...which we did...and got a stud and an extra first rounder.  So we did exactly what I wanted us to do and it seems to have worked out pretty well so far.  

 

I literally said improve the D and we make the playoffs.  We did just that and managed to get an extra first out of it and flip Tyrod for a great pick as well.  

 

So laugh all you want, but it worked out pretty well.  And Mahomes would not be graded higher than the top 5 or 6 guys this year.

You said you thought all 3 of the QB's in 2017 might not go in the first round.

 

People don't forget!  Own your bad takes!

5 hours ago, Doc said:

 

I'd need to see more of his work, especially after getting injured.

So you'd take Darnold/Allen/Rosen over Watson tomorrow?

6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Probably so, because we saw him be special. I’m not sure that he ends up as the best of these 2 drafts or not. What he showed though is enough to know that he can be successful. He basically removes the risk at this point which is why I would. 

And while that's a hindsight argument, those of us banging on the table for Watson would've had us sitting pretty today.

 

Note to Bills, punting on the QB position always hurts.

Edited April 13, 2018 by jmc12290

[Lfod]

1 hour ago, Zerovotlz said:

NFL coaches and front offices would take Mahomes 1 overall knowing what they know at this moment.

I never seen Mahomes in games. I heard he played a few games at the end of the season. 

 

Kinda interested in knowing what you saw as a KC fan. Not trolling I am interested in your thoughts as a fan. What did you see on the field that impressed/concerned you? 

 

The Bills passed on both Watson and Mahomes I presume. I would hate to think my team passed on legit QBs. 

Edited April 13, 2018 by Lfod

[Lfod]

6 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yep.

 

Basically blame Whaley for anything wrong up to this point.

 

I didn't mind Whaley. He had a borderline Playoff team. I can respect that. I always 100% thought Rex Ryan was a bad move and helped finish off Whaleys career. 

 

Twords the end though Whaley didn't help himself with a few of the things he said and that bad press conference. That being said I wasn't in the fire him pitchforks crowd. I thought he was decent. 

 

I would say that him not being a GM right now is telling.

Edited April 13, 2018 by Lfod

[BillsFan4]

Just now, Zerovotlz said:

 

***Biased KC Fan Post Warning***

 

First, let's draw a couple very important distinctions in this discussion.  There is a difference between how the consensus "grades" a prospect, and how the prospect actually turns out to be, or is evaluated by the team that took him, the teams that passed him, the teams that wanted to trade up and couldn't.

 

With that in mind this could almost be a two or three part question.

 

1.  Based on PRE DRAFT GRADES this year and BEFORE the 2017 NFL draft, where would you rank Watson and Mahomes when mixed with the 2018 class?

 

2. Based on what you know about the 2017 QB's now, where would you rank them Watson and Mahomes when mixed with the 2018 class?

 

3.  Knowing everything you know now about how the season turned out, who you drafted at 27, what pick you got trading back, and what the landscape looks like to get your QB this year, would you still do that trade?  or Would you undo the trade and take Mahomes or Watson?

 

....here is where you should be warned about my bias....so take the following with that information in mind as I attempt an objective take on this.

 

Regardless of the consensus draft "GRADE", the Chiefs clearly rated him higher than a 2nd round caliber player....and because the Giants, Saints and Texans also had him rated higher than that, the Chiefs, knowing this is their target CORRECTLY identified a trade partner to get to a point high enough up in that draft to get him.  With the idea that KC had identified Mahomes, understood there were others who had come to the same or similar conclusions that were NOT IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS DRAFT GRADES, they drafted him where he had to be drafted if you wanted him.  Mahomes may therefore have had a consensus ranking of "2nd Round" but the actual market was he was top 10-15 round 1.  All a pre draft grade does is set a guide to media, fans, and a very general broad look overall for front office types. Front offices/GMs/scouts etc...are paid to be right, not paid to contribute their thoughts and ideas into a pool so that a consensus can be established that everyone just follows.

 

Having had all of 2017 to evaluate Mahomes further, see him in practice, work on his perceived and/or real issues, the same staff that drafted him, and the same staff who had won with pro bowl QB Alex Smith, decided that what Mahomes has shown them since they drafted was enough to trade Smith away.  ....They traded away Alex Smith, who led the NFL in Qb Rating, won two straight division titles, and wasn't especially expensive considering the QB market we are now in. Smith had another year on his contract.  They didn't have to trade him.  

 

Now, for those of you who remain skeptical because you haven't seen enough....you are absolutely entitled and justified in your thinking....I would simply say that you haven't seen enough because you didn't see him in the Denver game, or you haven't seen him in practive, or you didn't see his pre season (YES, I KNOW IT WAS PRESEASON)  and you haven't heard Ried talk about what he has in Mahomes...or most likely, you've gotten bits and pieces of some of this at best.  That is fine, and to be expected.  I don't know the day to day intricacies of Buffalo and I couldn't attest to Tyrod Taylor for example, except reading what folks here might say, or reading his stats....I may have an opinion about Taylor, but it wouldn't be all that well informed.  

 

Having said that...and again, I am a biased Chiefs fan (one who has seen three decades of bad to mediocre QB play) and Mahomes is different, he is special.  The scouts missed on his grade but Andy Ried didn't.  Totally fair that most folks here can't buy in based on what I am saying here...but 4 games into 2018, your eyes will all be wide open.  

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/baldys-breakdowns/0ap3000000905916/Why-Patrick-Mahomes-is-ready-to-lead-the-Chiefs-Film-Review

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2018/3/30/17180500/the-moment-andy-reid-knew-he-had-something-special-in-patrick-mahomes

 

http://buffalonews.com/2018/03/01/combine-notebook-sean-mcdermott-thinks-patrick-mahomes-is-going-to-have-a-heck-of-a-career/

 

 

 

The 2nd round grade I was referring to came from the NFL draft advisory board. It carries quite a bit of weight for prospects.

The draft board is there to advise college players on their draft prospects before they decide whether to declare for the draft or not. 

They only give 3 grades - 1st round grade, 2nd round grade or 'go back to school'. 

 

Here is a description of what the draft committee  is - 

 

https://operations.nfl.com/the-players/development-pipeline/college-advisory-committee/

 

Quote

To help both the clubs, who want NFL-ready players in the Draft, and the student-athletes, who are looking to enter the Draft early, the NFL relies on its College Advisory Committee. The Committee, which includes high-level personnel evaluators from NFL clubs and directors from the league’s two sanctioned scouting organizations (National Football Scouting and BLESTO), advises underclassmen on their draft prospects before they make a formal request to the league to join the Draft

 

 

Obviously it is not the be all end all, but their draft grades carry a lot of weight and are usually pretty accurate (it doesn't mean they go exactly where they projected though, and we all know the QB position tends to be overdrafted frequently anyway, making it much harder to predict) -

 

Quote

In 2017, 59 players (35.3 percent) elected to declare early for the Draft. The CAC evaluated 167 underclassmen, 27 of whom received either a first- or a second-round evaluation. Of those 27, 22 declared to enter the Draft early and 20 (90.9 percent) were drafted in the first two rounds (11 in the first, nine in the second).

 

Since 2010, 85 percent of student-athletes who received a first- or second-round evaluation and declared for the Draft have been selected in the first two rounds.

 

 

I was just just pointing out that Mahomes had a 2nd round grade, where as numerous top QBs in this draft were given 1st round grades. 

 

 

 

 

As for where I'd rank Mahomes and Watson in this draft, even knowing what I know now, my ranking are the same they were before the draft last year - 

 

- Id have Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield in front of both Watson and Mahomes. Maybe Watson creeps toward that #3 spot with his stellar play thismpaat season. But I would more/less have both in the 2nd tier 4-6 QB range with Allen, Rudolph, Jackson and before White, Lautetta, Falk. (Probably right around 4 with Allen) 

 

- whether or not id still do that trade today? Yes I would.

Nothing has really changed for me since last year. Like I said, Maybe I have Watson a little higher if solely judging from what he did in the NFL this year, since he lit it up. But I am BIG on QBs proving themselves over multiple NFL seasons, once NFL coaches & players know their tendencies and start specifically game planning for them. We've all seen plenty of flashes in the pan who disappear after a good season or two. I want to see Watson stay healthy (2 ACL tears already) and repeat his performance over the course of the next 2 years before I say I was dead wrong on him. 

Watson has obviously proven a bit more than Mahomes has so far (who hasn't really proven anything in the NFL yet), but both have a long way to go yet to prove they are good NFL QBs. 

 

 

The Bills have done exactly what I was hoping for so far. I wanted them to trade down last year, pick up another 1st this year and target the 2018 QB draft class, which I felt (and still feel) was much stronger than 2017.  

Obviously I'd go back and make the trade with Houston or the NY Giants (if they were actually offering their 1st this year, which I somewhat doubt was the case), but that is hindsight. 

 

The Bills have to land their QB this year, though. If they somehow land one of the top QBs (Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield) then the trade was a huge win from my POV. 

If they land one of the 2nd tier QBs, I still think the trade is a success if that QB turns out, since we also have Tre White who was a rookie of the year candidate and one of the top CB's in the NFL. Plus we have Zay Jones (or Dion Dawkins, don't remember which we used that 3rd to trade up for). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But If the Bills did draft a QB last year, I wanted Mahomes or Trubisky. So I don't want to give the impression I don't like Mahomes. I actually like him quite a bit, and think he has a good chance to be a good NFL QB.

 

He landed in the perfect situation IMO. Andy Reid knows how to get the most out of his QBs. He is one of the best at properly scheming for + utilizing his QBs IMO, and I consider him to be one of the elite coaches in the NFL. I think the chances are very high that Mahomes has success with Reid.

I'm not so sure he'd have the same success in Buffalo, though. We have historically SUCKED at developing QBs (it's a new, much better staff so I have hope now) and with the amount of work Mahomes needed/needs on his footwork and multiple other aspects, I am not sure Buffalo was the right place for him. He wouldn't have had a super smart veteran QB (like Alex Smith) to learn from last year, or a QB guru (like Reid) on staff to help him along. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edit - sorry I don't know why everything is in bold. I did not mean to do that 

Edited April 13, 2018 by BillsFan4

[Zerovoltz]

8 minutes ago, Lfod said:

I never seen Mahomes in games. I heard he played a few games at the end of the season. 

 

Kinda interested in knowing what you saw as a KC fan. Not trolling I am interested in your thoughts as a fan. What did you see on the field that impressed/concerned you? 

 

The Bills passed on both Watson and Mahomes I presume. I would hate to think my team passed on legit QBs. 

 

The first link at the bottom of my post is a good summary....in the preseason....(YES, I know..PRESESAON)  ...I'm not looking at the stat line...watch the arm talent...the poise...watch his head...he does NOT stare down targets...he is very good at scanning and moving safeties with his eyes.  ....the other thing...he can move pretty well, but Mahomes is NOT a running QB...he is not Vick, not Lamar Jackson...hell, Alex Smith is much more athletic runner than Mahomes.......so, to sum it up...he has good pocket presence..doesn't lock on to a target...and the arm talent is incredible.  ....so not just that he can throw it far....but if he has to move left or right..your play isn't broken....he can accurately throw a football from anywhere on a field while on the move...to any target on the field.  All the coaches say he eats and breaths football and is a remarkable young man.  (sure, they say that about everyone, but you can see it when he talks, etc)  .....I've seen plenty of so so QB's...Grbac, Cassel, Bono, DeBerg...Trent Green....Green and DeBerg had enough brains, but not the physical talent.  Grbac had a pretty good arm, but was a poor leader.  Bono...and others like him...they were just there.....I'm very very excited.  

BillsFan4....my post wasn't intended to be critical of what you had posted.....just more or less agreeing that those rankings are a guideline.  I don't agree with your assement of Mahomes...but I completely understand your stance, and that it would be very hard to make a call on the small sample size of Mahomes in the NFL so far....I have no problem with anyone who needs to see more before they change their mind about him.  Totally fair.

[Lfod]

4 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

The first link at the bottom of my post is a good summary....in the preseason....(YES, I know..PRESESAON)  ...I'm not looking at the stat line...watch the arm talent...the poise...watch his head...he does NOT stare down targets...he is very good at scanning and moving safeties with his eyes.  ....the other thing...he can move pretty well, but Mahomes is NOT a running QB...he is not Vick, not Lamar Jackson...hell, Alex Smith is much more athletic runner than Mahomes.......so, to sum it up...he has good pocket presence..doesn't lock on to a target...and the arm talent is incredible.  ....so not just that he can throw it far....but if he has to move left or right..your play isn't broken....he can accurately throw a football from anywhere on a field while on the move...to any target on the field.  All the coaches say he eats and breaths football and is a remarkable young man.  (sure, they say that about everyone, but you can see it when he talks, etc)  .....I've seen plenty of so so QB's...Grbac, Cassel, Bono, DeBerg...Trent Green....Green and DeBerg had enough brains, but not the physical talent.  Grbac had a pretty good arm, but was a poor leader.  Bono...and others like him...they were just there.....I'm very very excited.  

Nice. Well if it works out for KC it would be hard to argue that they didn't get the better end of that deal. In a perfect world KC and the Bills both win. My team has to hold up it's end of the deal in this draft. 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, jmc12290 said:

You said you thought all 3 of the QB's in 2017 might not go in the first round.

 

People don't forget!  Own your bad takes!.

 

Except I didn’t.  But nice try.  

[rodneykm]

12 hours ago, vincec said:

You mean a top 10 pick like #12?

 

I'll bet Rex Ryan would have taken Watson. Food for thought.

 

And it would have been the correct call. 

[xRUSHx]

22 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Either the answer is no, or Doug Whaley is incompetent. We only got one future 1st rd pick and a 2017 3rd  in return for moving from a top 10 pick to 27. Brutal return compared to this year. 

This is why I really hope they are aggressive with a move up or this staff will have this type of baggage to look at. Move for a top 3 QB will have this all forgotten IMO.

9 hours ago, Lfod said:

Nice. Well if it works out for KC it would be hard to argue that they didn't get the better end of that deal. In a perfect world KC and the Bills both win. My team has to hold up it's end of the deal in this draft. 

Right on man, this draft is more of a tell on this staff when it comes around IMO because of the not going for Mahomes/Watson. Grab a top dog this year and last year is pushed aside showing the wanted a 2018 QB over a 2017 IMO.