dave mcbride Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Manther said: I just don’t believe in paying a slot WR #1 WR money. But, with Cleveland’s cap, if they can front load the deal, it may work? Of course it works. They're way below the cap at present. Indeed, they are STILL $58 million below the cap given the rollover. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/cap/ 3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Rising cap aside, he's not worth $15.1M per season. Gotta spend their money somehow. He was traded there and therefore a bird in the hand. Recall that the Bills are a team that just spent $10 million plus per year for an inferior player, at least in terms of measurable productivity. Another thing: they have a legit #1 in Josh Gordon. Guess how much he's making this upcoming season? $790K. Edited April 13, 2018 by dave mcbride
TheElectricCompany Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) There are receivers with injury concerns and less productivity getting similar salaries. His guaranteed $$$ is high, but so what? Landry is 25 with his best years ahead. They are getting a new QB and he'll benefit from his talents. The market has told you what he is worth. Remember a few years ago when Julio, Dez, DT and AJ Green all got ~$14 million per season deals? The cap continues to rise and playmakers are always in demand. $15 million is fair and reasonable. Edited April 13, 2018 by TheElectricCompany 1
Buffalo716 Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 On 4/12/2018 at 12:19 PM, Mat68 said: Best slot reciever of all time averaged 10. Landry is doing that with spotty qbs. Landry is not top 5 right now but he is better than Watkins, and you cant name 10 wrs more productive than him. Andre Reed played tons of slot and he is the archetype for the modern slot he averaged close to 14ypc
Irv Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 Landry is a punk. Needs top be power slammed through a burning table.
thebandit27 Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 33 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said: I feel we got into a similar conversation last year on the same topic about Sammy? These advanced stats are a little silly some times. Bottom line, there are guys who produce at a high level. Landry is one of them. There are others where you can cherry pick certain numbers to fit the narrative, but they never really put it all together.This is a league where it's all about moving the football forward. He's a superb option. His talent in the short routes almost serves as an extension of the running game. If they all those have better reception rates, yards per separation, blah blah blah, why don't they perform better than him? As mentioned by a few other guys, the market has spoken. $15 million is the going rate for an upper tier receiver. 400 catches in 4 years says that Landry is exactly that. I'm not paying $15M per year for Landry when a guy like Adam Thielen can come in and produce quite similarly. Think of it this way: is he measurably better than Golden Tate or Doug Baldwin? Because he's getting nearly twice as much as those guys. I mean, Alvin Kamara caught 30 fewer passes than Landry and averaged 20% greater yards/reception. Shouldn't a guy making WR1 money be a markedly better receiver than a 3rd round rookie RB? Travis Kelce makes a little over $9M/year, and he's a far better receiver than Landry--he caught 83 passes on 123 targets for 12.5 YPR, and had 1 less TD and 13 more receptions of 20+ yards compared to Landry. For crying out loud, Jack Doyle caught 80 passes at an 8.6 yard/rec clip, and did it on only 107 targets. Landry puts up numbers because he runs short routes from the slot in an offense that puts a premium on very short passes. I'm glad Cleveland is comfortable paying Landry WR1 money, but I would never pay a guy with his level of efficiency that amount of money...not when I can grab a mid-round TE like Doyle or Kelce who can do the same for 40% less money. 18 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said: There are receivers with injury concerns and less productivity getting similar salaries. His guaranteed $$$ is high, but so what? Landry is 25 with his best years ahead. They are getting a new QB and he'll benefit from his talents. The market has told you what he is worth. Remember a few years ago when Julio, Dez, DT and AJ Green all got ~$14 million per season deals? The cap continues to rise and playmakers are always in demand. $15 million is fair and reasonable. I said for months that someone would pay Landry $15M AAV, but that I expected it to be a team with a history of making foolish decisions 1
TheElectricCompany Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) 11 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: I'm not paying $15M per year for Landry when a guy like Adam Thielen can come in and produce quite similarly. Think of it this way: is he measurably better than Golden Tate or Doug Baldwin? Because he's getting nearly twice as much as those guys. I mean, Alvin Kamara caught 30 fewer passes than Landry and averaged 20% greater yards/reception. Shouldn't a guy making WR1 money be a markedly better receiver than a 3rd round rookie RB? Travis Kelce makes a little over $9M/year, and he's a far better receiver than Landry--he caught 83 passes on 123 targets for 12.5 YPR, and had 1 less TD and 13 more receptions of 20+ yards compared to Landry. For crying out loud, Jack Doyle caught 80 passes at an 8.6 yard/rec clip, and did it on only 107 targets. Landry puts up numbers because he runs short routes from the slot in an offense that puts a premium on very short passes. I'm glad Cleveland is comfortable paying Landry WR1 money, but I would never pay a guy with his level of efficiency that amount of money...not when I can grab a mid-round TE like Doyle or Kelce who can do the same for 40% less money. Yeah, but you can't get Adam Thielen, that's kind of the point. There is no player for half the cost walking around. Thielan was also a one year wonder when he got his deal. With Landry, you are paying for some certainty. There is an impressive track record with multiple offensive coordinators and QBs. Doesn't matter the situation, he produces. Travis Kelce is one of the best TEs in the game. There is nothing easy about finding a player of his caliber. Doyle is pretty good too, but it took him three years to start producing! Three! Landry already had 300 catches and 3000 yards at that point in his career. Edited April 13, 2018 by TheElectricCompany
thebandit27 Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 Just now, TheElectricCompany said: Yeah, but you can't get Adam Thielen, that's kind of the point. There is no player for half the cost walking around that can give you that production. With Landry, you are paying for some certainty. There is an impressive track record with multiple offensive coordinators and QBs. Doesn't matter the situation, he produces. Travis Kelce is one of the best TEs in the game. There is nothing easy about finding a player of his caliber. Doyle is pretty good too, but it took him three years to start producing! Three! Landry already had 300 catches and 3000 yards at that point in his career. You say that a team can't simply go get a Thielen/Kelce/Doyle, but those guys were mid-round picks (or UDFA in Thielen's case)...and that's exactly the point. Instead of paying $15M/year for a slot receiver that someone picked with a 2nd round pick and is willing to let walk in favor of Albert Wilson, why not go draft a Cooper Kupp or JuJu Smith that can do the job on a rookie contract? Teams manage to do it every year. Also, ask yourself this: if Landry were as good a player as you say, then why weren't teams lining up to trade a decent asset for him and sign him to WR1 money? That didn't happen; instead, the worst organization in football traded a 4th round pick this year and a 7th round pick next year for him. Could you picture that happening with Antonio Brown? Julio Jones? DeAndre Hopkins? Any other WR making that much money? Case-in-point: the Rams--who had already signed Robert Woods and drafted Cooper Kupp and Pharoh Cooper--had no problem parting with a 2nd round pick and a productive cornerback for Sammy Watkins...shouldn't a supposedly elite player like Landry fetch even more? The point here is quite simple: guys that amass receptions and--consequently--yards do so because of targets. Where elite players that deserve WR1 money set themselves apart is by piling great per-target production on top of that, which is where Landry falls woefully short. His yards/reception is awful, and he ranked 88th in the NFL in yards/target. I get that you think he's WR1 material, but aside from Cleveland, the rest of the league did not.
TheElectricCompany Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) 11 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: You say that a team can't simply go get a Thielen/Kelce/Doyle, but those guys were mid-round picks (or UDFA in Thielen's case)...and that's exactly the point. Instead of paying $15M/year for a slot receiver that someone picked with a 2nd round pick and is willing to let walk in favor of Albert Wilson, why not go draft a Cooper Kupp or JuJu Smith that can do the job on a rookie contract? Teams manage to do it every year. Also, ask yourself this: if Landry were as good a player as you say, then why weren't teams lining up to trade a decent asset for him and sign him to WR1 money? That didn't happen; instead, the worst organization in football traded a 4th round pick this year and a 7th round pick next year for him. Could you picture that happening with Antonio Brown? Julio Jones? DeAndre Hopkins? Any other WR making that much money? Case-in-point: the Rams--who had already signed Robert Woods and drafted Cooper Kupp and Pharoh Cooper--had no problem parting with a 2nd round pick and a productive cornerback for Sammy Watkins...shouldn't a supposedly elite player like Landry fetch even more? The point here is quite simple: guys that amass receptions and--consequently--yards do so because of targets. Where elite players that deserve WR1 money set themselves apart is by piling great per-target production on top of that, which is where Landry falls woefully short. His yards/reception is awful, and he ranked 88th in the NFL in yards/target. I get that you think he's WR1 material, but aside from Cleveland, the rest of the league did not. Good article about success rates of drafting... https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round You have to develop these guys. To find an above average or elite starter, like Thielan or Kelce, in those rounds, you have to beat the odds. When building a team, would you rather play the odds with a rookie, or pay for certainty? There are pros and cons to both. With Landry, you are paying for certainty and continued growth. Clearly, he is a beast on the short routes, but can his game grow to more intermediate routes as well? I think it's reasonable to think he can further develop as a player. NFL teams are not perfectly rational, they all make boneheaded decisions, even the Patriots. It doesn't make sense that Kirk Cousins walked for nothing and Marcus Peters got traded for peanuts either, but they did. Getting Landry for a 4th is pretty silly. Based on that article, there is a 12% chance of finding a starting WR with a 4th round pick. 12!!!!!! Edited April 13, 2018 by TheElectricCompany
Manther Posted April 13, 2018 Posted April 13, 2018 6 hours ago, dave mcbride said: Of course it works. They're way below the cap at present. Indeed, they are STILL $58 million below the cap given the rollover. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/cap/ I know their cap this year has lots of room, BUT, how does that impact their cap down the road? Can they put most or all of the signing bonus front loaded?
NoSaint Posted April 14, 2018 Posted April 14, 2018 On 4/12/2018 at 10:47 AM, HappyDays said: These comparisons always fall short. Every year the cap goes up by $10 million. They should really be comparing "percentage of salary cap at time of signing" but I've never found anyone that tracks that. Ive Long said the same around here. Would be great for benchmarking
dave mcbride Posted April 14, 2018 Posted April 14, 2018 11 hours ago, thebandit27 said: You say that a team can't simply go get a Thielen/Kelce/Doyle, but those guys were mid-round picks (or UDFA in Thielen's case)...and that's exactly the point. Instead of paying $15M/year for a slot receiver that someone picked with a 2nd round pick and is willing to let walk in favor of Albert Wilson, why not go draft a Cooper Kupp or JuJu Smith that can do the job on a rookie contract? Teams manage to do it every year. Also, ask yourself this: if Landry were as good a player as you say, then why weren't teams lining up to trade a decent asset for him and sign him to WR1 money? That didn't happen; instead, the worst organization in football traded a 4th round pick this year and a 7th round pick next year for him. Could you picture that happening with Antonio Brown? Julio Jones? DeAndre Hopkins? Any other WR making that much money? Case-in-point: the Rams--who had already signed Robert Woods and drafted Cooper Kupp and Pharoh Cooper--had no problem parting with a 2nd round pick and a productive cornerback for Sammy Watkins...shouldn't a supposedly elite player like Landry fetch even more? The point here is quite simple: guys that amass receptions and--consequently--yards do so because of targets. Where elite players that deserve WR1 money set themselves apart is by piling great per-target production on top of that, which is where Landry falls woefully short. His yards/reception is awful, and he ranked 88th in the NFL in yards/target. I get that you think he's WR1 material, but aside from Cleveland, the rest of the league did not. ?? - Watkins had a year of team control left and was really cheap. There's no comparison with a guy who has the franchise tag. Compare like to like.
MrEpsYtown Posted April 14, 2018 Posted April 14, 2018 Hmmm give lots of money to reciever who excels at working the middle and intermediate level of the field....have quarterback who never throws there. Browns logic.
Manther Posted April 14, 2018 Posted April 14, 2018 15 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said: He's being paid like an explosive game breaking #1 WR. He simply isn't. Agreed 15 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said: There are receivers with injury concerns and less productivity getting similar salaries. His guaranteed $$$ is high, but so what? Landry is 25 with his best years ahead. They are getting a new QB and he'll benefit from his talents. The market has told you what he is worth. Remember a few years ago when Julio, Dez, DT and AJ Green all got ~$14 million per season deals? The cap continues to rise and playmakers are always in demand. $15 million is fair and reasonable. He is not a #1 like Julio, Dez and AJ were. However, I do agree it is a great safety valve for a young QB which is invaluable.
thebandit27 Posted April 14, 2018 Posted April 14, 2018 7 hours ago, dave mcbride said: ?? - Watkins had a year of team control left and was really cheap. There's no comparison with a guy who has the franchise tag. Compare like to like. Yeah there's not a convenient comparison, so I picked someone recent and familiar. The thought process being that a guy with better production should fetch at least similar compensation
Magox Posted April 14, 2018 Posted April 14, 2018 I wouldn't have paid that high for him, but then again, compared to the Watkins contract the Browns ended up getting a good deal.
dave mcbride Posted April 14, 2018 Posted April 14, 2018 2 hours ago, thebandit27 said: Yeah there's not a convenient comparison, so I picked someone recent and familiar. The thought process being that a guy with better production should fetch at least similar compensation Actually, Watkins' new contract with KC is similar at least on a per year basis, and although we all realize his talent and potential, he's been a less productive and more injured player than Landry. Moreover - and I keep stressing this - Cleveland HAS to pay some players because of the rolling 4-year cap floor rule. They were way under the cap in 2016 and 2017. https://www.dawgsbynature.com/2016/3/8/11181686/cleveland-browns-salary-cap-understanding-the-89-cash-spending
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