Lance Zierlein's Peek at the 2018 QB Class

[26CornerBlitz]

 

 

His top 5 is Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Jackson, and Allen

 

2018 NFL Draft QBs: Darnold No. 1, Lamar Jackson underrated

Most overrated

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: Rudolph operated with a very good command of his offense at Oklahoma State. He knew he had two receivers -- Marcell Ateman and James Washington -- that could make plays with the ball in the air, and Rudolph allowed them to do just that. However, when I study his tape, I don't see a quarterback who looks like a top-50 pick. We are hearing more buzz that he could end up going in that range in this year's draft. Rudolph wasn't asked to go through many progressions in his offense and I felt like his arm strength was very average when he was asked to zip it on field-side throws. I like his size as well as the fact that Rudolph understood his offense and would attack down the field, but I see an average NFL quarterback prospect who shouldn't go inside the first two rounds.

Most underrated

Lamar Jackson, Louisville: It might seem strange to list Jackson in the underrated category, but I'm not hearing many mentions for him as a top-10, or even top-15, pick, despite his talent and accomplishments. The word "elite" is thrown around quite haphazardly these days, but it's an apt description of Jackson's athletic ability. Not since Michael Vick have we seen a quarterback with Jackson's level of athletic ability and play-making potential ... and Vick went No. 1 overall in the draft! After the Texans' success in crafting their offense around Deshaun Watson last season, it's safe to say that any team considering drafting Jackson will already have a plan in place for how to best utilize his talents. Watson was a much more complete passer from the pocket than Jackson is at this point, but Jackson's ability to flip games in his team's favor by utilizing his ability to hit the home run should not be discounted -- the best offenses are usually ranked near the top in explosive plays. The one major concern is whether Jackson can stay healthy with his penchant for leaving the pocket.

[whatdrought]

I understand that an abundance of opinions make for a good discussion, but sometimes I wonder who decides who gets to write for NFL.com... 

Edited April 11, 2018 by whatdrought

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I understand that an abundance of opinions make for a good discussion, but sometimes I wonder who decides who gets to write for NFL.com... 

 

Lance Zierlein has been the guy who writes up many of the draft profiles on NFL.com.  You may disagree, I may disagree - for example, he clearly does NOT like Josh Rosen - but re-reading his work a couple years down the road his profiles have a knack of standing the test of time, matching what we see in the NFL.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Lance Zierlein has been the guy who writes up many of the draft profiles on NFL.com.  You may disagree, I may disagree - for example, he clearly does NOT like Josh Rosen - but re-reading his work a couple years down the road his profiles have a knack of standing the test of time, matching what we see in the NFL.

 

Has him as the #2 2018 QB prospect, so not liking him seems a bit strong.

[whatdrought]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Lance Zierlein has been the guy who writes up many of the draft profiles on NFL.com.  You may disagree, I may disagree - for example, he clearly does NOT like Josh Rosen - but re-reading his work a couple years down the road his profiles have a knack of standing the test of time, matching what we see in the NFL.

 

I actually don't mind Zierlein, I just meant how there are a hundred different guys on there saying a hundred different things. Which is good and all, Just hard to tell who actually knows what they're saying. 

 

I do appreciate his draft profiles, but I think (and I may be wrong) that his round projections are usually .5-1 round off, but I suppose that's the nature of the thing. 

[PIZ]

Sounds like he LOVES Mason Rudolph!  I have been starting to re-think my desire for the Bills to draft him.  The more I read about Lamar Jackson, the more I think he could be a target if Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield are gone.  Arizona may jump up and get him though.

[billspro]

I pretty much agree with his assessment of the QBs

[stony]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Lance Zierlein has been the guy who writes up many of the draft profiles on NFL.com.  You may disagree, I may disagree - for example, he clearly does NOT like Josh Rosen - but re-reading his work a couple years down the road his profiles have a knack of standing the test of time, matching what we see in the NFL.

Great used car salesmen name.

[jrober38]

Totally agree.

 

Rudolph is a 3rd/4th round prospect. 

 

He's highly limited without a clean pocket, isn't mobile, and doesn't have a very good arm. 

 

He looks like a 6 to 10 year backup with no upside. 

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, jrober38 said:

Totally agree.

 

Rudolph is a 3rd/4th round prospect. 

 

He's highly limited without a clean pocket, isn't mobile, and doesn't have a very good arm. 

 

He looks like a 6 to 10 year backup with no upside. 

 

That's how I feel about Rudolph too.  He reminds me of Derek Anderson for some reason.

[transplantbillsfan]

Well...  I almost completely agree with everything he says.

 

But I like Rudolph better than Allen... primarily because of Allen's "boom or bust" draftability.

[26CornerBlitz]

7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Well...  I almost completely agree with everything he says.

 

But I like Rudolph better than Allen... primarily because of Allen's "boom or bust" draftability.

 

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Well...  I almost completely agree with everything he says.

 

But I like Rudolph better than Allen... primarily because of Allen's "boom or bust" draftability.

As opposed to Rudolph?  Not much boom there.

[transplantbillsfan]

11 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

As opposed to Rudolph?  Not much boom there.

 

But not nearly as much bust as Allen, either, IMO

Edited April 11, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Has him as the #2 2018 QB prospect, so not liking him seems a bit strong.

 

"NFL comparison: Trent Green"

 "He wasn't the guy everyone rallied around in college and you don't have to dig around for too long to find people who said he was hard to coach. "

Has him ranked 0.81 (that's a lot) below Darnold

 

Not sure it's out of line as a characterization to say "doesn't like him"

[MrEpsYtown]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

"NFL comparison: Trent Green"

 "He wasn't the guy everyone rallied around in college and you don't have to dig around for too long to find people who said he was hard to coach. "

Has him ranked 0.81 (that's a lot) below Darnold

 

Not sure it's out of line as a characterization to say "doesn't like him"

 

I think those things are just information he's heard from scouts and such, but I could be wrong. 

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

But not nearly as much bust as Allen, either, IMO

What would you rather have Andy Dalton or RG3?  Dalton is the better QB, but is he good?  He’s meh.  Tyrod is meh.  The bengals could’ve drafted plenty of other QBs along the way if they had drafted a boom or bust guy instead of meh or meh guy Dalton.  Dalton was too good to move on from and not nearly good enough to be a legit franchise Qb.  They should’ve traded him before his contract was up and drafted someone that could be GOOD.  Not meh.  I’d take Allen over Rudolph all day every day because he has the QB skills to be very good......because that’s what everyone wants.  A good qb.  Not meh.

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

What would you rather have Andy Dalton or RG3?  Dalton is the better QB, but is he good?  He’s meh.  Tyrod is meh.  The bengals could’ve drafted plenty of other QBs along the way if they had drafted a boom or bust guy instead of meh or meh guy Dalton.  Dalton was too good to move on from and not nearly good enough to be a legit franchise Qb.  They should’ve traded him before his contract was up and drafted someone that could be GOOD.  Not meh.  I’d take Allen over Rudolph all day every day because he has the QB skills to be very good......because that’s what everyone wants.  A good qb.  Not meh.

 

I would take Andy Dalton over RG3.

[Dr. Who]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I would take Andy Dalton over RG3.

OTOH, Rudolph and Allen are not Dalton and RG3.  No one knows for sure how they will end up and in reality, a career is dictated by good or bad fortune as much as innate ability and work ethic.  Going to the right team with the right system for you, good coaching, surrounding talent, staying healthy, etc. will play a significant role in whether one has a successful career.  However, natural talent will determine the limits of one's potential.  Imo, Rudolph's ceiling is Dalton.  I don't think Beane and Co. are aiming for an average qb.  In retrospect, a bust is a bust, but Allen has the potential to be very good.  If evaluators at OBD see a rational path to developing his talent and think he has the intelligence, character, and temperament to be a franchise qb, they should prefer him to any mediocre talent.