Hits and Misses: How Successful Was GM John Butler In The Draft? HINT: Pretty Darn Good

[BuffaloRush]

 

1 hour ago, prissythecat said:

 

I quickly googled this topic to try to see what might be available .  Here is an article written by Matthew Fairburn based on interview with Russ:

 

http://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2015/10/bills_sabres_president_russ_brandon_new_role_criticism_unbelievable_year.html

 

A direct quote from Russ himself:

 

" I've never drafted a player. The funny thing is, the one draft that a lot of people pinned on me, it was a great draft with the exception of the first-round pick (Aaron Maybin in 2009). All that credit goes to Tom Modroff. That's part of the business. I get a kick out of it sometimes."

 

 

Ok fine....but he still was the GM during those years.  So his name stays on the list 

1 hour ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

I appreciate the effort, but haven't we already established that your rating system is faulty.

 

Nope I received lots of good feedback.  2 more GM’s left

1 hour ago, ddaryl said:

Butler sucked at contracts though. Use to give out ridiculous money. he caused us salary cap issues if I remember well.

 

Yeah but I’m only evaluating the draft picks. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

Excellent post OP. Just a suggestion - Maybe you can weight the hit or miss by (inverse of)draft round. Clearly a hit (outperforming draft position) at the top of the draft is way more valuable than a hit down the draft. 

 

John Butler did even better at the top of the draft - He really only had one miss - so the weighted percent would be even higher. Missing out with first-rounders like Maybin, McCargo, Losman, Manuel, Mike Williams etc. has hurt us so much.

[TPS]

I believe JB was pissed at Ralph in that 2000 draft, and shortly after he joined AJ(?) in San Diego. There's no way he whiffs that bad.

[st pete gogolak]

Look at Butler's drafts from one perspective and one perspective only - 2018's QB-centric quarterback uber alles.  If you look at his drafts from that vantage point, he was a total disaster.  Waited way too long to look for a replacement for Kelly and when he did, he bombed with the Todd Collins pick.  He made a very nice pickup with Flutie but then destroyed the value of that pickup by trading a #1 (no. 8 overall if I recall correctly) and a #4 for Rob Johnson and then compounds that mistake by handing Johnson a monster contract before he plays a down with us.  John Butler had a lot of great qualities in regard to evaluating talent but one of the reasons for the 17 year playoff drought was Butler's utter inability to evaluate quarterbacks.

[row_33]

2 hours ago, ddaryl said:

Butler sucked at contracts though. Use to give out ridiculous money. he caused us salary cap issues if I remember well.

 

Butler was totally gifted a solid team, that helps every drafted player to walk into a good team.

 

 

 

[Watkins101]

The first draft percent is wrong. 3 hit 9 misses is 25%, not 33%.

[machine gun kelly]

He was the last good GM  we had except he was not good at managing the cap.  He put together the #1 defense in the NFL.  Everyone down here in Tampa swore it was the Bucs, but I reminded people we were the best and. I like the Bucs.  That Billsdefense with big Teddy, Marcellus Wiley, Bryce Paul, Chris Spielman and soon was. Impressive.

[Rico]

3 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 How did Butler do in the draft? Take a second and read below.  But before you do - here's my take on the success of other GM's

 

1. Russ Brandon: 28%

2. Marv Levy: 25%

3. Buddy Nix: 25%

4. Bill Polian: 23%

 

 

[K-9]

Lonnie "Friggen" Johnson! 

 

Ah, the memories. 

 

If anyone has the time, they should break down the "success/failure" rates for every GM. You'll find little disparity as it's remarkably consistent from GM to GM, team to team over the years. A few outliers every now and then, but still not enough to move the needle much. 

[Saxum]

The rating system is faulty for the more the late round picks you have the more likely you will fail but that is why they are late round picks who often just do special teams work.

 

Injuries should not count against GM unless the player had injury history in college.

[Rico]

Marcus Spriggs was a good draft pick?

 

Thanks, I never knew that.

[Freddie's Dead]

Anybody calling Lonnie Johnson a "hit" automatically gets the toilet flush sound (dudes entire Bills career is defined by the Wile E. Coyote, kinda like EJ in London).  Also, as mentioned above, Sammy Morris Jr. was definitely a "hit", for a 5th round pick.  He posted 3-4 round pick numbers, and was a solid 3rd down back and special teamer for the Bills as well as the Fish and the Cheats.

[BuffaloRush]

1 hour ago, Watkins101 said:

The first draft percent is wrong. 3 hit 9 misses is 25%, not 33%.

 

Thank you and good catch.  Should not make a difference in the overall rating

52 minutes ago, Rico said:

Marcus Spriggs was a good draft pick?

 

Thanks, I never knew that.

 

6th round draft pick.  Started almost two season and was a capable backup the other two.  That’s a hit for 6th round.  H-I-T

[BuffaloRush]

14 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Anybody calling Lonnie Johnson a "hit" automatically gets the toilet flush sound (dudes entire Bills career is defined by the Wile E. Coyote, kinda like EJ in London).  Also, as mentioned above, Sammy Morris Jr. was definitely a "hit", for a 5th round pick.  He posted 3-4 round pick numbers, and was a solid 3rd down back and special teamer for the Bills as well as the Fish and the Cheats.

 

Ok I get it but take a look at Lonnie’s stats.  3 straight years as starter with almost 50 receptions.  Much better production than Jay Riemersma most seasons and about the same as Charles Clay.  It’s not a home run but overall I’m giving him a hit.

 

Sammy was a close call but I don’t feel he did enough with the Bills....I’m not considering his work on other teams.  It’s based on what he did with the Bills

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

Lonnie "Friggen" Johnson! 

 

Ah, the memories. 

 

If anyone has the time, they should break down the "success/failure" rates for every GM. You'll find little disparity as it's remarkably consistent from GM to GM, team to team over the years. A few outliers every now and then, but still not enough to move the needle much. 

 

It truly is a crap shoot and success is sometimes all about finding the right fit.  But it’s clear some draft classes are way stronger than others 

[Rico]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Thank you and good catch.  Should not make a difference in the overall rating

 

6th round draft pick.  Started almost two season and was a capable backup the other two.  That’s a hit for 6th round.  H-I-T

I look forward to your Mike Pucillo and Jonathan Meeks evaluations.

[BuffaloRush]

2 minutes ago, Rico said:

I look forward to your Mike Pucillo and Jonathan Meeks evaluations.

 

Pucillo is close but Meeks is a straight up MISS

[Freddie's Dead]

13 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Ok I get it but take a look at Lonnie’s stats.  3 straight years as starter with almost 50 receptions.  Much better production than Jay Riemersma most seasons and about the same as Charles Clay.  It’s not a home run but overall I’m giving him a hit.

I'm remembering Lonnie's play, and for every good play he made, he had a drop, or a penalty, to offset the good stuff.  I wish we had stats for his penalties and drops, because they would negate his positive stats.  Jay Riemersma, on the other hand, was a heads up player, and he didn't take penalties or drop passes.  Lonnie J will always be in my outhouse, because he was another guy with a million dollar body and a 5-cent head.

[BuffalothruMyVeins]

3 hours ago, st pete gogolak said:

John Butler had a lot of great qualities in regard to evaluating talent but one of the reasons for the 17 year playoff drought was Butler's utter inability to evaluate quarterbacks.

And then he went to San Diego, and drafted Drew Brees. 

If Ralph weren't so cheap, Smith and Butler wouldn't have left, and that would have been Buffalo selecting Tomlinson and Brees, right at the birth of this QB-friendly era.

[Saxum]

29 minutes ago, BuffalothruMyVeins said:

And then he went to San Diego, and drafted Drew Brees. 

If Ralph weren't so cheap, Smith and Butler wouldn't have left, and that would have been Buffalo selecting Tomlinson and Brees, right at the birth of this QB-friendly era.

 

Butler left because Ralph wanted him to do more like other GMs and Butler was just comfortable doing the parts of role he wanted so Butler was fired for insubordination and brought in Donahoe.  Nothing to do with Ralph being cheap.

[BuffaloRush]

1 hour ago, Freddie's Dead said:

I'm remembering Lonnie's play, and for every good play he made, he had a drop, or a penalty, to offset the good stuff.  I wish we had stats for his penalties and drops, because they would negate his positive stats.  Jay Riemersma, on the other hand, was a heads up player, and he didn't take penalties or drop passes.  Lonnie J will always be in my outhouse, because he was another guy with a million dollar body and a 5-cent head.

 

This is spot on.  Lonnie was inconsistent but that doesn’t change the fact that he was fairly productive at TE for the Bills and that’s a fact