Buffalo Hasn't Conducted Itself This Offseason Like They'll Trade Most/All High PIcks for #2

[Saxum]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

That is true, but they had and have a lot of high draft choices on that team before the trade.

Yes the glory of "tanking".  It does not help ticket sales which is why someone like Russ Brandon will need to work even harder.  

2 hours ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

If we use all our high grade capital to draft a quarterback and don't fix our OL (among other things), no matter who plays quarterback on this team will quite possibly be on IR in no time.  If the building has weak support, no matter how fine the structure otherwise may be, don't build it; it will crumble. 

 

On IR and psych ruined so we will need a new QB meaning we need to sacrifice more picks and cycle repeats.

[RyanC883]

I think Bodine will be a steal, esp. with AJ.  

 

And I wouldn't rule out drafting C/G Ragnow or the guy from Bama.  

Edited April 7, 2018 by RyanC883

[Big Turk]

Really we have no idea what they will do and most likely neither do they or moat other teams until the draft starts and the dominos start falling

[BadLandsMeanie]

26 minutes ago, Wily Dog said:

THE TIME IS NOW,, Beane has positioned the team with multiple draft picks, so we can trade up. Both Beane and McDermott abhor tanking and the team will not be in the bottom of the league next year. I would imagine that Beane has already laid out alternative plans to get what he wants and if the the cards are right , he will proceed. To not do it now means at least two years down the drain, because , accordingly there are no QB prospects coming out next year, and we will not have the draft capital to get up , if there was a QB they coveted. So, you better be prepared for an all in , no matter what it takes TRADE, for the Bill's.

Dude, we don't control the top picks.

 

That is just the way it is. It could be that the Browns, Giants, and Jets all take a QB. And then the Broncos might take a QB. 4 are gone then. So what do we go all in and trade up for?

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

4 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Dude, we don't control the top picks.

 

That is just the way it is. It could be that the Browns, Giants, and Jets all take a QB. And then the Broncos might take a QB. 4 are gone then. So what do we go all in and trade up for?

 

 

Yes, and this scenario be would the worst case for the Bills. It's entirely possible. I don't believe it's likely, however. I think the Bills will have a chance to trade into pick 7, 6,5, or 2. I don't think NYG or DEN goes for a QB. 

[BadLandsMeanie]

4 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Yes, and this scenario be would the worst case for the Bills. It's entirely possible. I don't believe it's likely, however. I think the Bills will have a chance to trade into pick 7, 6,5, or 2. I don't think NYG or DEN goes for a QB. 

I hope you are right.

 

 

[Saxum]

6 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Yes, and this scenario be would the worst case for the Bills. It's entirely possible. I don't believe it's likely, however. I think the Bills will have a chance to trade into pick 7, 6,5, or 2. I don't think NYG or DEN goes for a QB. 

Browns have picks 1 and 4.  If they get another QB to be doomed in Cleveland they might be willing to sacrifice their 4th for picks to Buffalo including 2019 first round pick so Buffalo can tank like them and give them another early 1st like them.

[Boatdrinks]

3 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Browns have picks 1 and 4.  If they get another QB to be doomed in Cleveland they might be willing to sacrifice their 4th for picks to Buffalo including 2019 first round pick so Buffalo can tank like them and give them another early 1st like them.

Latest word is the Browns aren't interested in moving off 4. They know they are getting Barkley or Chubb at that spot, and have lots of picks. It's NYG, DEN or TB most likely. Maybe IND at 6, but that bridge might be burned. 

Edit: Oh, and the Bills aren't interested in tanking. 

Edited April 7, 2018 by Boatdrinks

[CuddyDark]

From the time Beane had the press conference I've believed they have a QB they want at 12. I believe it to be Jackson. Over the past couple of weeks I've begun to think it might be Rudolph.

[maryland-bills-fan]

38 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Browns have picks 1 and 4.  If they get another QB to be doomed in Cleveland they might be willing to sacrifice their 4th for picks to Buffalo including 2019 first round pick so Buffalo can tank like them and give them another early 1st like them.

I don't think so.  They have plenty of picks in this draft. They could get a real, difference making stud with the 4th pick.  Maybe the best RB in the last 5 years. The guy could start year one without a long learning curve compared to other positions.   I think the Browns are after difference makers rather than even more solid players.  I think they will keep both picks

4 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

From the time Beane had the press conference I've believed they have a QB they want at 12. I believe it to be Jackson. Over the past couple of weeks I've begun to think it might be Rudolph.

1st round QB's have a ~ 50% bust rate.  Maybe the first two might be above that this time (70%?) but the 3-6 QB are going to be in that range.  I don't think there will be a lot of difference, 10 years from now, between #3-4 and #6-7.    Sounds like get somebody in the lower 1st or 2nd round and stock up on the other 97% of the team.

[Wily Dog]

The closer to the top of the draft , the less chance of failure. I know that the Bill's fan's are skitterish  of trading up , i.e. Watkins, Losman , Manuel. We have a new team in the F.O. and they have done a pretty fair job so far.  TRUST THE PROCESS.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

10 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Did you read the article the other day in the BN? He listed every year out so would be easy to look at the last 7 years to see if that changes the numbers.  Admittedly 10% of the QB's were still in the category of "Too soon to tell" so looking at the past 7 years only would be a more limited set.

 

Found the article, it was by Nick Veronica

 

His criteria was he looked back at the past 30 drafts, but only drafts with more than 4 QB's in round 1 or 5 in the first two rounds.  His point of the article was to show that just because there are many QB's that are going to be take nearly doesn't mean success.  So to your point of looking back only 7 years within that window the only years that qualified were 2014, 2012, 2011, 2007  To get a little more data I also threw in 2004 which without 2004, the data would have been even worse as there were 3 franchise guys that year.  Admittedly Wentz class isn't included as not enough QB's taken that year to meet his criteria

 

Based on his rating ( and I felt were pretty accurate) there were 25 total QB's taken in that window that he rated as follows:

 

6 Too soon to tell

4 Franchise

1 Average

3 Journeyman

11 Busts

 

 

I just looked at all 1st round QB's back to 2007 in 1st round, there were 13 more taken in the years not included for his article so that would change the numbers some.   I also took the six he ranked too soon to tell and rated them in which I gave 4 of those 6 franchise/average grades to.  I combined the franchise and average together as felt if I'm rating the "guys too soon to tell" would I call for example Jameis Winston a franchise guy or just average.  But felt by combining those groups into one, was comfortable placing him there. The numbers then came out as shown below:

 

38 Total

17 Franchise/Average  45%

5 Journeyman  13%

16 Busts  42%

 

Basically have about the same shot at a bust as a franchise/average guy.  Really worse when you add in journeyman as really wouldn't want to be using a top 10 pick that you even gave up extra picks for to end up getting a journeyman.

 

I agree with the premise not all these guys will be great but there has been special yrs like 2004 where 3 out of 3 turned out to be all franchise guys . Losman was a reach that yr shouldn't have gone in the 1st rd. 

 

The Bills need to be careful and not buy into the Allen hype he's the trap in this scenario.  I wonder how much of the guys on your list where drafted high based on physical tools most if not all those guys bust.

[What a Tuel]

6 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

1st round QB's have a ~ 50% bust rate.  Maybe the first two might be above that this time (70%?) but the 3-6 QB are going to be in that range.  I don't think there will be a lot of difference, 10 years from now, between #3-4 and #6-7.    Sounds like get somebody in the lower 1st or 2nd round and stock up on the other 97% of the team.

 

Pick 6 Overall through 2nd round has a 88% bust rate. You just decreased our odds of getting a legitimate QB by nearly half because you feel as though this team would be incomplete without 3 maybe 4 players, only 2 of which we could count on as being day 1 contributors.

 

I surely hope Beane picks the right QB whoever it is and how ever he does it, but this talk of odds and filling holes instantly is a two way street, and you are often framing it as disproportionately easy to just fill these holes and play it by ear at QB.

 

If Beane knows a QB he wants, he should have no qualms about moving wherever he needs to obtain that QB.

Edited April 8, 2018 by What a Tuel

[BobbyC81]

15 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Any Bils fan that's been watching the last 20 years should know that no need or hole is as important as QB. And filling every other need except QB will get you nothing more than a 7-9 loser team. This has been proven time and time again by our own team.

 

This is the best chance the Bills have had in landing a franchise QB, and will probably be our best chance for years to come.

 

A little pain, a little investment now, will pay dividends through the future. Gotta take a shot.

 

The best chance may actually have been the 2017 draft when the Bills had the 10th pick and Mahomes and DeSean Watson were there to be picked

[maryland-bills-fan]

10 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Dude, we don't control the top picks.

 

That is just the way it is. It could be that the Browns, Giants, and Jets all take a QB. And then the Broncos might take a QB. 4 are gone then. So what do we go all in and trade up for?

 

 

Sorry,  reality isn't acceptable here.

[BuffaloMatt]

21 hours ago, Limeaid said:

Two Words.......Not relevant

 

 

Considering some against trading up have been on this board for years could it be they just have different opinion than someone who may not even have been a fan last year?

 

Two Letters. . . . __ __ (you guess as you have no sense of humor)

[SoTier]

22 hours ago, What a Tuel said:

 

1st round QBs hit at a much higher rate than any of the other rounds combined, because they are evaluated to be the best prospects.

 

So if we don't want to take that chance, then what's the plan? Wait until we get a top 3 pick naturally? Doesn't that mean losing anyway?  You guys keep thinking we will run or luck into a QB at some point, but its been 18 years. Come to terms with the fact that it isn't going to happen. We need to reach out and take one, and hopefully Beane is the right GM to identify the QB that will be a success.

 

 

First round QBs in the last 20 years only hit the threshold of "successful starter for five or six years" (that's NOT "franchise QB" territory) only about 50% of the time.  That's a QB on the level of Smith, Cutler, Flacco, Dalton, Tannehill, etc.  Franchise QBs like Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Ryan etc come along much less frequently, not even at the rate of 1 a draft.

 

The reason so few QBs from the 2nd or 3rd rounds don't succeed very often is that most aren't given real opportunities to be starters.  In recent years, teams have found successful QBs and even franchise QBs when they've given them real opportunities: Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, etc.

9 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I agree with the premise not all these guys will be great but there has been special yrs like 2004 where 3 out of 3 turned out to be all franchise guys . Losman was a reach that yr shouldn't have gone in the 1st rd. 

 

The Bills need to be careful and not buy into the Allen hype he's the trap in this scenario.  I wonder how much of the guys on your list where drafted high based on physical tools most if not all those guys bust.

 

I disagree that this year is anything special when it comes to QBs.  I think it's more like 2011 with tons of hype hiding iffy prospects.  There will probably 1 decent/good starting QB from the draft like there is from most drafts.

 

I do agree that Allen is a bust waiting to happen.  Maybe he'll be great ... but let somebody else take that sucker bet.

 

[What a Tuel]

26 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

First round QBs in the last 20 years only hit the threshold of "successful starter for five or six years" (that's NOT "franchise QB" territory) only about 50% of the time.  That's a QB on the level of Smith, Cutler, Flacco, Dalton, Tannehill, etc.  Franchise QBs like Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Ryan etc come along much less frequently, not even at the rate of 1 a draft.

 

The reason so few QBs from the 2nd or 3rd rounds don't succeed very often is that most aren't given real opportunities to be starters.  In recent years, teams have found successful QBs and even franchise QBs when they've given them real opportunities: Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, etc.

 

 

Again, those odds are still greater than all other means of finding a QB, so it makes sense to take a shot at those guys over a 4th round guy that EVERYONE missed. Again we are not trading up because they are first round picks. We are wanting to trade up because those are the QB's that have been evaluated to have the greatest chance at being successful in the NFL.

 

And no I disagree with your theory about late round QBs. Those ones you named are the few amongst dozens that have flopped. There are tons of backups and late rounders that have been given real opportunities in this league. A lot of them flop, and a few succeed.

 

For example:

Tyrod Taylor

Geno Smith

Brock Osweiler

Tom Savage

TJ Yates

Austin Davis

Case Keenum

Mike Glennon

Colin Kaepernick

Brian Hoyer

Ryan Fitzpatrick

 

I could go on, and on, and on. The odds are not better with the castoffs.

 

Edit: I cannot believe we are actually arguing that you are more likely to find a successful QB in the 1st round than a late round / undrafted pick. I mean really guys? 

Edited April 8, 2018 by What a Tuel

[without a drought]

They can always take a cb, then by the time he leaves after his rookie deal is up in 4 years maybe the Bills have gotten lucky and found a qb along the way. 

 

 

Edited April 8, 2018 by The Drought

[NastyNateSoldiers]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

First round QBs in the last 20 years only hit the threshold of "successful starter for five or six years" (that's NOT "franchise QB" territory) only about 50% of the time.  That's a QB on the level of Smith, Cutler, Flacco, Dalton, Tannehill, etc.  Franchise QBs like Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Ryan etc come along much less frequently, not even at the rate of 1 a draft.

 

The reason so few QBs from the 2nd or 3rd rounds don't succeed very often is that most aren't given real opportunities to be starters.  In recent years, teams have found successful QBs and even franchise QBs when they've given them real opportunities: Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, etc.

 

I disagree that this year is anything special when it comes to QBs.  I think it's more like 2011 with tons of hype hiding iffy prospects.  There will probably 1 decent/good starting QB from the draft like there is from most drafts.

 

I do agree that Allen is a bust waiting to happen.  Maybe he'll be great ... but let somebody else take that sucker bet.

 

I'm not sure if its 2004 but it's definitely not 2011 . Ponder, Locker and Gabbert i had them all as bad prospects.  To be honest u can't even compare them at all to this class. First off they didn't even come close to the body of work that these guys have nor do they have the physical traits as far as being pure passers . At the end of the day i do agree that not all of the top 4 will be franchise level QB's.  I think 2 maybe 3 are very possible.