Buffalo Hasn't Conducted Itself This Offseason Like They'll Trade Most/All High PIcks for #2

[billsfan89]

If the Bills were to dump 4 of their 5 premium picks to get a QB this year they still would have a 2 top 96 picks to acquire talent plus mid-round picks to sure up depth. I also think you are underestimating the windfall of cap space this team is about to get in 2019. In 2019 most of the remaining significant contracts on the team are able to be ousted with little cap penalties. The Bills could easily get 20-30 million more in cap space by cutting players towards the back end of their deals. 

 

It's fairly easy to think that the Bills could have a QB in place with a full draft class and 100 million or more to spend. 2018 is about finding the QB, 2019 is about getting a lot of talent around that QB. 

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, kdiggz said:

It's not trading the farm. They wanted a new prized calf and the other farmer said it will take 5 chickens if you want to do a trade. They only had 2 chickens so they got a few more and now they have enough to make the deal.

And yet we beat them. Just because you have heard of some of their players doesn't mean they had a better team

That is true, but they had and have a lot of high draft choices on that team before the trade.

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, Nineforty said:

All of their moves in regards to acquiring more draft capital seem to indicate otherwise but doesn't have to mean I'm right either.

 

I've always felt get the qb, evaluate him and build based off those details and the talent that becomes available next year in FA and the draft.

 

Get a qb and if you hit, we have time to fill in blanks.

You're right, especially your first sentence.   

 

Frankly, I don't think there's anything to be read into their moves, either way.   They felt like they needed to move Glenn, and the opportunity was to get a better draft choice.   So they took it.  That meant they could trade up more if it made sense, and it also meant they could get the middle linebacker they want.   They could go either way.   

 

I keep remembering that McD said a month ago or more that the Bills aren't as far along as some people think.  Sounded he was trying to control expectations for 2018.   The McCarron signing and that statement can go both ways - "we're gonna have a rookie QB, and either he'll be a typical rookie or we'll go with McCarron.  Either way, it'll take another year for us to get better."

 

 

[Logic]

The thing that is key to remember, in my opinion, is that the Bills have set themselves up in such a way that they can trade up for a QB and STILL have a nearly full complement of draft picks. Now, it maybe true that if they have to way overpay to move all the way up to #2, this may not be the case. But let's say they give up their two 1sts, a 2nd , and a 3rd to move to the #5 spot. They would still have a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, two 5ths, and a 6th. That's basically a full draft. 

Another thing to remember, as others have pointed out, is that the Bills aren't going to be able to completely build their roster up in just one offseason, even IF they use all of the draft picks they currently possess. I think that McDermott's comment about "not as far along as people think" was meant to temper expectations for the 2018 season. This is year two of a rebuild. I believe they get their QB this year and let him learn on the job for a year. Then NEXT season, the Bills spend a bunch of the $90million in cap space they have and their full complement of draft picks to really "complete" the roster, as much as a roster ever CAN be completed in the NFL. They are following the model of "get a rookie QB on a cheap contract for 5 years, and use that window of low QB cost to build the roster around him". It's the best bet, in my opinion, and I'm glad that OBD seems to agree.

[Marv's Neighbor]

2 hours ago, klos63 said:

Yep, it's just the reality of the situation we are in. We need a QB...desperately.

Yeah, but it's still a very big crap shoot!  Since the BILLS have not exactly excelled at that, in the past, I am concerned!

[Formerly Allan in MD]

If we use all our high grade capital to draft a quarterback and don't fix our OL (among other things), no matter who plays quarterback on this team will quite possibly be on IR in no time.  If the building has weak support, no matter how fine the structure otherwise may be, don't build it; it will crumble. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Did you read the article the other day in the BN? He listed every year out so would be easy to look at the last 7 years to see if that changes the numbers.  Admittedly 10% of the QB's were still in the category of "Too soon to tell" so looking at the past 7 years only would be a more limited set.

 

Found the article, it was by Nick Veronica

 

His criteria was he looked back at the past 30 drafts, but only drafts with more than 4 QB's in round 1 or 5 in the first two rounds.  His point of the article was to show that just because there are many QB's that are going to be take nearly doesn't mean success.  So to your point of looking back only 7 years within that window the only years that qualified were 2014, 2012, 2011, 2007  To get a little more data I also threw in 2004 which without 2004, the data would have been even worse as there were 3 franchise guys that year.  Admittedly Wentz class isn't included as not enough QB's taken that year to meet his criteria

 

Based on his rating ( and I felt were pretty accurate) there were 25 total QB's taken in that window that he rated as follows:

 

6 Too soon to tell

4 Franchise

1 Average

3 Journeyman

11 Busts

 

 

I just looked at all 1st round QB's back to 2007 in 1st round, there were 13 more taken in the years not included for his article so that would change the numbers some.   I also took the six he ranked too soon to tell and rated them in which I gave 4 of those 6 franchise/average grades to.  I combined the franchise and average together as felt if I'm rating the "guys too soon to tell" would I call for example Jameis Winston a franchise guy or just average.  But felt by combining those groups into one, was comfortable placing him there. The numbers then came out as shown below:

 

38 Total

17 Franchise/Average  45%

5 Journeyman  13%

16 Busts  42%

 

Basically have about the same shot at a bust as a franchise/average guy.  Really worse when you add in journeyman as really wouldn't want to be using a top 10 pick that you even gave up extra picks for to end up getting a journeyman.

 

I agree and read the same article. It comes to about a 50% bust rate for 1st round QB's.  In my opinion that is too much of a risk to take for the Bills.   Especially this year when the jest have set a 25% premium on moving up.  Especially this year where there are a number of top drafting teams who need QB's.

[3rdand12]

5 hours ago, artmalibu said:

All the QB speculation is BS at this point for 3 reasons.

 

1.  No one knows if the NYG are willing to trade out, and there is a possibility QBs could go 1,2,3 and possibly 5.  

 

2.  No one knows how much they are willing to give up to move up.

 

3.  No one know how many QBs are in the draft they feel its worth moving up for.  If they dont love 2 of them getting to #2 may not matter anyway. 

some one knows. and it may not just be limited to the Giants.
The deal might be too steep for Bills. But if they will and Cleveland takes the "Other one" . Ya have to pull the trigger and figure out the rest later. yes

 that means a 1st next year no doubt. it will hurt.

 But it must done if Giants allow it.

[cd1]

5 hours ago, kdiggz said:

Rookie QB is 3 yr process. Year 1 is learning, making mistakes, fighting through advertisity. Year 2 is progress and you watch them become a franchise type QB. Year 3 is when you are a contender. The exact plan the Rams are following now. They had no issues trading away their entire draft for Goff and now they are right there with Minnesota as the super bowl favorites from the NFC.

BS - In Buffalo you get ONE GAME!  If you do okay, you get one more game. If you mess up that first game - you are DONE in B-lo.

 

What is this 3 years you speak of?

 

/sarcasm

[K D]

2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

That is true, but they had and have a lot of high draft choices on that team before the trade.

The trade will include some chickens they already had and then others they added through bartering. They had newly hatched baby chicken 1 (21) and new baby chicken 2 (53). They traded their spot in line at the farmers market last year to get chicken 3 (22), they traded 2 goats for chickens 4 and 5 (56 & 65) but those were expensive animals that didn't produce anything anyways. They might be asked to include another chicken yet to be born or one of their fat pigs but we don't know that yet for sure. They were also able to trade up from one of their ugly chickens by adding an old expensive pig to get a much nicer and more attractive chicken from their neighbor so that will help a bit in their bartering negotiation.

 

Either way they need that beautiful baby calf because it will provide for their family for a very long time so everything they have done up until this point is to obtain that prize. We can't get distracted by the fact that we need to replace our goats, have some really old pigs, and even some donkeys and turkeys, or that we have an old farmhouse that needs refurbishing. It will all happen in due time. Our priority is on getting that calf!!!

Edited April 7, 2018 by kdiggz

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, Chuck Wagon said:

Nothing has changed, but it all depends on the Giants and Broncos.  If they both stay and go QB we are screwed.  If they both pass on QB, the price to move up could end up being VERY reasonable.

 

For that reason I think there's a bit of a stalemate in trade talks.  The Giants and/or Broncos likely would want a ransom to move out, but their willingness to move out would indicate they aren't taking QB anyway, creating a catch 22.  

I doubt that. Prepare for the worst case scenario Chuck. Broncos TB  and Giants know what Beane is looking to do for the most part I suspect.

 Cleveland is taking a QB and not telling which one.

jets are as well, i would be surprised Bills are allowed access to whom they would accept

3 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

The trade will include some chickens they already had and then others they added through bartering. They had newly hatched baby chicken 1 (21) and new baby chicken 2 (53). They traded their spot in line at the farmers market last year to get chicken 3 (22), they traded 2 goats for chickens 4 and 5 (56 & 65) but those were expensive animals that didn't produce anything anyways. They might be asked to include another chicken yet to be born or one of their fat pigs but we don't know that yet for sure. Either way they need that beautiful baby calf because it will provide for their family for a very long time so everything they have done up until this point is to obtain that prize. We can't get distracted by the fact that we need to replace our goats or that we have an old farmhouse that needs refurbishing. It will all happen in due time. Our priority is on getting that calf!!!

awesome analogy. and afine story in it's own right k  

[Augie]

5 hours ago, artmalibu said:

All the QB speculation is BS at this point for 3 reasons.

 

1.  No one knows if the NYG are willing to trade out, and there is a possibility QBs could go 1,2,3 and possibly 5.  

 

2.  No one knows how much they are willing to give up to move up.

 

3.  No one know how many QBs are in the draft they feel its worth moving up for.  If they dont love 2 of them getting to #2 may not matter anyway. 

 

But, it’s the offseason, so this is how we carry on.....   

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

The thing that is key to remember, in my opinion, is that the Bills have set themselves up in such a way that they can trade up for a QB and STILL have a nearly full complement of draft picks. Now, it maybe true that if they have to way overpay to move all the way up to #2, this may not be the case. But let's say they give up their two 1sts, a 2nd , and a 3rd to move to the #5 spot. They would still have a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, two 5ths, and a 6th basically a full draft. 

Another thing to remember, as others have pointed out, is that the Bills aren't going to be able to completely build their roster up in just one offseason, even IF they use all of the draft picks they currently possess. I think that McDermott's comment about "not as far along as people think" was meant to temper expectations for the 2018 season. This is year two of a rebuild. I believe they get their QB this year and let him learn on the job for a year. Then NEXT season, the Bills spend a bunch of the $90million in cap space they have and their full complement of draft picks to really "complete" the roster, as much as a roster ever CAN be completed in the NFL. They are following the model of "get a rookie QB on a cheap contract for 5 years, and use that window of low QB cost to build the roster around him". It's the best bet, in my opinion, and I'm glad that OBD seems to agree.

Excellent, Logic.  Just damn excellent.

 

I've thought for a while that it's more likely that the Bills sit tight or trade up between 5 and 11 than it is that they make a deal with the Giants.   It just seems to me that this is the Giants best chance to get the successor to Eli, and they aren't going to trade that chance just for a boatload of picks that won't be good enough to get them back up to the top of the draft next year.   Especially if they trade with the Bills, because they know then that 1, 2 and 3 will be QBs, and that will leave the Giants with their fourth choice at QB instead of second.  

 

Beane is careful and deliberate.   He isn't likely to blow all his draft capital in a deal with the Giants unless his absolute favorite, can't-miss QB is at #2, whoever that may be.   (He may not even HAVE a can't-miss favorite.)   

 

If the McCarron deal signaled anything, it is that Beane was figuring he'd get his QB someplace after the #4 pick (or I suppose at #4 if the Browns want to deal) and that he's figuring that the QB he drafts in the first round should sit for a year.  McCarron can get him through 2018.   Plus, maybe McCarron turns out to be a surprise.  

 

But I hadn't thought about your point that by trading up 4-7 picks, Beane still can leave himself with a more or less full draft.  

 

I'd really like to know what went on at last year's draft.   We don't really know who was in charge, but it's an interesting scenario to think that the Pegulas told Whaley to do what McDermott told him.   Whaley probably already knew what was coming.   In any case, passing on Mahomes and moving all the way back to 29 was a gutsy move.  Getting White was a bonus, because the real prize was to set up Beane with two first round picks this year.   Even though they turned out to be relatively late in the round, those picks set up Beane to make the other deals and get himself to where he is now.   He has virtually every choice in front of him now - move to 2 if he wants to pay the price.    Move to 5 through 11.   Sit at 12.  Heck, who knows?  It's possible he'd even trade back a few picks from 12.   Point is, he has the capital to do whatever he wants, and it all started because the Bills passed on Mahomes.   

[gobills1212]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Excellent, Logic.  Just damn excellent.

 

I've thought for a while that it's more likely that the Bills sit tight or trade up between 5 and 11 than it is that they make a deal with the Giants.   It just seems to me that this is the Giants best chance to get the successor to Eli, and they aren't going to trade that chance just for a boatload of picks that won't be good enough to get them back up to the top of the draft next year.   Especially if they trade with the Bills, because they know then that 1, 2 and 3 will be QBs, and that will leave the Giants with their fourth choice at QB instead of second.  

 

Beane is careful and deliberate.   He isn't likely to blow all his draft capital in a deal with the Giants unless his absolute favorite, can't-miss QB is at #2, whoever that may be.   (He may not even HAVE a can't-miss favorite.)   

 

If the McCarron deal signaled anything, it is that Beane was figuring he'd get his QB someplace after the #4 pick (or I suppose at #4 if the Browns want to deal) and that he's figuring that the QB he drafts in the first round should sit for a year.  McCarron can get him through 2018.   Plus, maybe McCarron turns out to be a surprise.  

 

But I hadn't thought about your point that by trading up 4-7 picks, Beane still can leave himself with a more or less full draft.  

 

I'd really like to know what went on at last year's draft.   We don't really know who was in charge, but it's an interesting scenario to think that the Pegulas told Whaley to do what McDermott told him.   Whaley probably already knew what was coming.   In any case, passing on Mahomes and moving all the way back to 29 was a gutsy move.  Getting White was a bonus, because the real prize was to set up Beane with two first round picks this year.   Even though they turned out to be relatively late in the round, those picks set up Beane to make the other deals and get himself to where he is now.   He has virtually every choice in front of him now - move to 2 if he wants to pay the price.    Move to 5 through 11.   Sit at 12.  Heck, who knows?  It's possible he'd even trade back a few picks from 12.   Point is, he has the capital to do whatever he wants, and it all started because the Bills passed on Mahomes.   

Well thought out- but I haven't once thought McCarron signified that at all. 

They needed a qb. They waited, allocated as little as possible resources to the position and now have essentially an unknown and unproven commodity along with an unproven rookie. 

That seems like either could be the starter, but both are ripe to be beat out by a rookie. 

If not, either can play for half a yr/yr until the rookie proves he is ready or the season is lost and it's just about experience. 

I guess we will see;)

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, gobills1212 said:

Well thought out- but I haven't once thought McCarron signified that at all. 

They needed a qb. They waited, allocated as little as possible resources to the position and now have essentially an unknown and unproven commodity along with an unproven rookie. 

That seems like either could be the starter, but both are ripe to be beat out by a rookie. 

If not, either can play for half a yr/yr until the rookie proves he is ready or the season is lost and it's just about experience. 

I guess we will see;)

I think that's what I meant.   

 

McCarron is the best insurance Beane could buy for 2018 at a low price.  But McCarron is not evidence that the Beane wants to trade up to #2 or anything else.  He's just the guy who's gonna be the  QB if the rookie, wherever he's drafted, doesn't step up to start.   If it hadn't been McCarron, it would have been McCown or some other inexpensive recognizable name.   It's almost as though Beane waited out the QB music chairs until there was only one guy left - didn't matter which it would be, only that it would be a guy left with no bargaining power.  

[CaptnCoke11]

People have been brainwashed thatbtheze QBs are all going to be drafted early... I don’t see it.  I see a couple of them dropping a bit 

[gobills1212]

29 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think that's what I meant.   

 

McCarron is the best insurance Beane could buy for 2018 at a low price.  But McCarron is not evidence that the Beane wants to trade up to #2 or anything else.  He's just the guy who's gonna be the  QB if the rookie, wherever he's drafted, doesn't step up to start.   If it hadn't been McCarron, it would have been McCown or some other inexpensive recognizable name.   It's almost as though Beane waited out the QB music chairs until there was only one guy left - didn't matter which it would be, only that it would be a guy left with no bargaining power.  

I guess a better way to say what I meant is that these other teams that are rumored to possibly be interested in a qb and on the fringe bc of who they signed. Denver and AZ maybe can afford to wait or not have to get a top 4 guy bc they have some sort of insurance or a guy they are paying bigger $$ to to hold down the fort until a project comes to fruition or it all fails and they need to try for a top guy. AJ wasn't in that class and as a result the perception is SOMETHING needs to be done as Buffalos an room is viewed among the league's worst at the moment. As a result most people feel a splash will be made rather than someone outside of the top 4 who will take longer and has a lesser chance of shaking out.

Number of draft picks aside, there is a reason most people figure buffalo will be trying to pull out all the stops. 

Perception may not be reality of course,  but the void of talent and the signing of aj is viewed as a major weakness regardless of how excited they say they are.

Edited April 7, 2018 by gobills1212

[BadLandsMeanie]

I think Beane thinks like me. And I have no idea what he will do. And I think he doesn't either until he sees how the draft board starts to fall.

 

I think Beane wants to go into every draft with extra capital, like  I would do. So he won't trade up to two unless he is positive the guy there is as close to a sure thing as you can have. And even if he does go up to get that guy, then he has the problem as has been mentioned about our patchwork line. You can't put a rookie behind that line (as we have seen).

 

I don't know what will happen but I think the most likely thing is he waits to see who drops out of the top and then if he likes him, he gets him.

 

Then you start McCarron and give him the best chance you can so you can trade him for a first or second round pick next year, or keep him if he turs out really good.

 

 

[John from Riverside]

This is the best draft for qbs in years

 

The bills know this

 

Everything is centered around it

[Wily Dog]

THE TIME IS NOW,, Beane has positioned the team with multiple draft picks, so we can trade up. Both Beane and McDermott abhor tanking and the team will not be in the bottom of the league next year. I would imagine that Beane has already laid out alternative plans to get what he wants and if the the cards are right , he will proceed. To not do it now means at least two years down the drain, because , accordingly there are no QB prospects coming out next year, and we will not have the draft capital to get up , if there was a QB they coveted. So, you better be prepared for an all in , no matter what it takes TRADE, for the Bill's.