The value of a franchsie QB

[gobills1212]

4 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Funny thing. The Bills are drafting #12 this year and somehow there seems to be only a few teams (Browns, Jets & Broncos) who are pretty sure of drafting a QB ahead of us. Now we all expect that there will be some teams trading up to grab a QB, but if a QB is all that dang important and just makes everything butterflies and rainbows... why aren't all those teams drafting ahead of us grabbing a QB and moving directly on to the promise land? Doesn't a “franchise QB” get you there? Why aren't they drafting a QB? Or maybe they already have a “franchise” guy and still are in the bottom 12 of the league. How could that be?   Let's look:

 

Browns                (they have Kizer, OK, they are one of the ones getting a QB this year.

Giants                 they have Eli Manning. Sounds like he has been called a F.QB.        #1 overall pick

Jets                    They have moved up to get a QB

Texans               they have Watson Sounds like he has been called a F.QB.                #12 pick 4 year $14M

Broncos             They have a committee of 3 and are one of the ones getting a QB this year.

Colts                  they have Luck. Sounds like he has been called a F.QB.                   #1 overall pick

Bucks                they have Wilson Sounds like he has been called a F.QB                  #1 overall pick

Bears                 they have Trubinski Sounds like he has been called a F.QB             #2 overall pick

49'ers                they have Garoppolo Sounds like he has been called a F.QB           $27M/ year contract

Oakland           they have Carr Sounds like he has been called a F.QB                       5 year $125M

fish                    they have Tannehill Sounds like he has been called a F.QB              4 year $77M picked #8

 

If getting a “franchise QB” is the sure path to success, then why are eight of the teams who have “franchise guys” sitting before us in the draft?

Respectfully, this is A LOT of reading and writing.

If you are a big enough fan to post on a message board - you shouldnt need other teams QBs summed up for you. 

Even then, the SOUNDS LIKE A F.QB designation makes me wonder if this summary is for us for for you. Miami for example has been rumored to not trust Tanny will be able to stay healthy, thus in the market for a qb - making your SOUNDS like a FQB wishy washy at best. So, are you ASKING who needs someone and who doesnt?

Then again, we did have a gentleman a couple weeks ago who wasn't aware tyrod had been traded.... so what do I know??

28 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

There is a difference between having a competent starter in place and having a franchise QB. 

 

Other than Brady and Roethlisberger, only two QBs have started a SB for the AFC in the last 16 years. We are looking for that magic in a bottle, and those two guys are leaving the stage. 

Opportunity's knocking and there are two chances - Rosen and Mayfield.
Baker Mayfield, #1, overall. If he isn't you should move heaven and earth to get him. Don't let him get to NYC.

Lol, decided to knock a few back and bust out the ol crystal ball early on a Sat huh? 

Edited April 7, 2018 by gobills1212

[BuffaninATL]

6 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

...but the paved highway costs a lot of draft picks- and you can't spend the draft on the vehicle AND the road at the same time.    Actually I like the analogy better with coaches( map), QB (vehicle) and team (the rest of the team).  

 

this is the cost of doing business for a top-shelf QB in today's NFL......and it's exactly why the Bills have wisely accrued extra draft picks in anticipation of this year's QB class. Not sure why, but it seems like you don't understand this. Think of it this way: "In microeconomic theory, the opportunity cost, also known as alternative cost, is the value (not a benefit) of the choice of a best alternative cost while making a decision. A choice needs to be made between several mutually exclusive alternatives; assuming the best choice is made, it is the "cost" incurred by not enjoying the benefit that would have been had by taking the second best available choice. The notion of opportunity cost plays a crucial part in attempts to ensure that scarce resources are used efficiently.Thus, opportunity costs are not restricted to monetary or financial costs: the real cost of output forgone, lost time, pleasure or any other benefit that provides utility should also be considered an opportunity cost."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost

[gobills1212]

7 minutes ago, BuffaninATL said:

 

this is the cost of doing business for a top-shelf QB in today's NFL......and it's exactly why the Bills have wisely accrued extra draft picks in anticipation of this year's QB class. Not sure why, but it seems like you don't understand this. Think of it this way: "In microeconomic theory, the opportunity cost, also known as alternative cost, is the value (not a benefit) of the choice of a best alternative cost while making a decision. A choice needs to be made between several mutually exclusive alternatives; assuming the best choice is made, it is the "cost" incurred by not enjoying the benefit that would have been had by taking the second best available choice. The notion of opportunity cost plays a crucial part in attempts to ensure that scarce resources are used efficiently.Thus, opportunity costs are not restricted to monetary or financial costs: the real cost of output forgone, lost time, pleasure or any other benefit that provides utility should also be considered an opportunity cost."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost

It seems so simple, but people fight it... 

In the end, if they get shut out I'm going to have to man up and take the tomatoes and take a couple trips to the crow buffet. I've just been so adamant they will do what needs to be done and it feels so right at that. My only hope then will be it gets leaked (which they'd be smart to do bc so many people will be pissed) they tried and were willing but just got shut out - even at 3 ones. 

The other acceptable answer imo is they didnt LOVE a guy - which I can get on board w as long as it's not a cop out

Edited April 7, 2018 by gobills1212

[SoCal Deek]

OP...I’m sure you had good intentions when you authored this Thread but it really doesn’t work...at all! The only team on your list who’s Franchise QB actually played last year was the Giants. The rest of the teams had guys who were injured, not with the team, or a late season starter. 

 

Your hypothesis simply doesn’t hold up to the evidence.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Football remains a team sport. Look no further than the Packers. They have a top QB of the last decade and can’t seem to get it together. Despite not actually making anything of it, they contend every year due almost entirely to Rogers. This shows the value of the position. It fluctuates between HOFer carrying the team or a game manager relying on the supporting cast. As much as I’d opt for the former, McBean and co. strikes me with the team-oriented approach. Now, given then can get a guy they believe to have the qualities needed to win, they will do so at the right price. I just cannot see them sacrificing their team oriented draft capital for one player, regardless of position 

[Tyrod's friend]

20 minutes ago, BuffaninATL said:

 

this is the cost of doing business for a top-shelf QB in today's NFL......and it's exactly why the Bills have wisely accrued extra draft picks in anticipation of this year's QB class. Not sure why, but it seems like you don't understand this. Think of it this way: "In microeconomic theory, the opportunity cost, also known as alternative cost, is the value (not a benefit) of the choice of a best alternative cost while making a decision. A choice needs to be made between several mutually exclusive alternatives; assuming the best choice is made, it is the "cost" incurred by not enjoying the benefit that would have been had by taking the second best available choice. The notion of opportunity cost plays a crucial part in attempts to ensure that scarce resources are used efficiently.Thus, opportunity costs are not restricted to monetary or financial costs: the real cost of output forgone, lost time, pleasure or any other benefit that provides utility should also be considered an opportunity cost."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost

 

 

19 minutes ago, gobills1212 said:

It seems so simple, but people fight it... 

In the end, if they get shut out I'm going to have to man up and take the tomatoes and take a couple trips to the crow buffet. I've just been so adamant they will do what needs to be done and it feels so right at that. My only hope then will be it gets leaked (which they'd be smart to do bc so many people will be pissed) they tried and were willing but just got shut out - even at 3 ones. 

The other acceptable answer imo is they didnt LOVE a guy - which I can get on board w as long as it's not a cop out

At the end of the day, I see microeconomic theory as applicable when the costs are known or at least can be nearly quantified. I think Beane did a remarkable job of this during the offseason and even during the previous year. He's manipulated the cost structure/talent level/output with a scalpel. 

But dealing in variables like the NFL draft and in particular, the outcomes of an NFL QB from the draft, life gets pretty muddled pretty fast.

And in this particular situation, it's not only the costs involved to you. It is the costs associated with allowing someone else - particularly your rival - to use that excess value against you for the next 10 years. The process is in place and I'll trust it. But if the next 20 years turns out pretty much like the last 20, there are going to be only a few teams standing with a real QB that takes them to the Super Bowl year after year and this seems like a pivotal point in that process.  

Baker Mayfield, possibly Josh Rosen. The rest of it is noise. 

[SouthNYfan]

4 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Funny thing. The Bills are drafting #12 this year and somehow there seems to be only a few teams (Browns, Jets & Broncos) who are pretty sure of drafting a QB ahead of us. Now we all expect that there will be some teams trading up to grab a QB, but if a QB is all that dang important and just makes everything butterflies and rainbows... why aren't all those teams drafting ahead of us grabbing a QB and moving directly on to the promise land? Doesn't a “franchise QB” get you there? Why aren't they drafting a QB? Or maybe they already have a “franchise” guy and still are in the bottom 12 of the league. How could that be?   Let's look:

 

Browns                (they have Kizer, OK, they are one of the ones getting a QB this year.

Giants                 they have Eli Manning. Sounds like he has been called a F.QB.        #1 overall pick

Jets                    They have moved up to get a QB

Texans               they have Watson Sounds like he has been called a F.QB.                #12 pick 4 year $14M

Broncos             They have a committee of 3 and are one of the ones getting a QB this year.

Colts                  they have Luck. Sounds like he has been called a F.QB.                   #1 overall pick

Bucks                they have Wilson Sounds like he has been called a F.QB                  #1 overall pick

Bears                 they have Trubinski Sounds like he has been called a F.QB             #2 overall pick

49'ers                they have Garoppolo Sounds like he has been called a F.QB           $27M/ year contract

Oakland           they have Carr Sounds like he has been called a F.QB                       5 year $125M

fish                    they have Tannehill Sounds like he has been called a F.QB              4 year $77M picked #8

 

If getting a “franchise QB” is the sure path to success, then why are eight of the teams who have “franchise guys” sitting before us in the draft?

 

-"Bucks"? It's Bucs.

Their QB is WINSTON not "Wilson"

Oh he also had an injury to his throwing shoulder in week 6, tried to play through it, wound up missing 3 weeks, total of 13 games played.

He also became the youngest player in NFL history to throw for 10,000 yards, breaking bledsoe's record.

 

 

-Dolphins. Tannehill is actually questionable, as many feel the dolphins might draft a replacement since he can't stay in the field

 

-Bears. Trubisky was a rookie, on a bad team, all even if he doesn't wind up panning out, they aren't going to draft a guy this year already

 

-49ers have Jimmy G, who was a midseason trade, and started what? 5 of their 16 games? Where he was undefeated and lit up the competition.

 

-Raiders and Carr? The dude is really, really good, was coming back from a broken leg, and the whole team just seemed to underperform last year..

 

-Texans. Watson TORE HIS ACL and missed more than half the season. Durrrr.

 

-Giants. Eli is at the end of his career, 1-2 years left if he doesn't have a career year, it's probably only one. He had arguably one of his worst seasons last year and is coming up on the end of a contract.

 

-Colts. Luck was out the ENTIRE YEAR WITH A SHOULDER INJURY. He didn't play a single snap even in preseason.

 

My favorite??

 

-Browns!? Their QB is TYROD not kizer. Kizer isn't even in the team anymore. You literally don't even know that their QB is your own teams' former QB!? FFS man.

 

You have literally no idea about any of the teams your listed.

 

3 hours ago, greeneblitz said:

this thread is terrible, I'd delete it.

 

Should delete himself.

 

 

[WhoTom]

33 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The only team on your list who’s Franchise QB actually played last year was the Giants.

 

Yup - and the Giants won two Super Bowls with that franchise QB.

 

 

[SouthNYfan]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

...but the paved highway costs a lot of draft picks- and you can't spend the draft on the vehicle AND the road at the same time.    Actually I like the analogy better with coaches( map), QB (vehicle) and team (the rest of the team).  

 

Then look at it this way:

 

Coaches (map)

Team (highway)

QB (vehicle)

 

Guess what?

 

You need a reliable vehicle to get there.

Good, reliable, fast are what you want in a vehicle.

They aren't cheap.

You need to pay for it. 

 

[Mickey]

1 hour ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

Browns.  Drafting a QB.

Giants.  They have Eli Manning.  He is old and been in decline.  They may well draft a QB.  They have the 2nd pick because Manning isn't very good now, and he can't carry that roster.  

Jets.  Have come to their senses and are going up to 3 for a QB.  

Texans.  ???  They didn't have Watson most of the year.  He was a rookie.  They lost a lot of games.  .....you don't have a point here.

Broncos don't have a "committee of 3"   They have ONE guy who is paid like a starter.  Has been named the starter...and is going to be the starter.  Undisputed.  On a team who have coaches that have publicly been given THIS YEAR.  They are pick high because LAST YEAR, they had Trevor Simien.  He isn't very good.  They signed Keenum hoping that he is an improvement....again....if your question is to ask why these teams are up high....the answer is going to keep coming back to 1. They have no QB, or 2. The record is bad because the QB they do have was hurt or wasn't on the team last year....but let's keep going....

COLTS....Luck didn't play....it should be obvious what this guy means to that team.  He was out all last year and they got to play all year wtih Jacoby Brissett.....

Bucs.  They have Winston.  He had a bad year...played hurt...and even when healthy...not 100 percent certain he is the man, but they aren't ready to call him a bust yet...he has shown enough to continue.  ....

Bears...Dude...they drafted Trubisky at 2 last year...he was a rookie...I'm not that impressed with him, but I will even admit his WR corps was bad.  If he is just a guy, then this is what happens..you have a bad record and you draft high...

49ers.  Couldn't win without Garropolo.  couldn't lose with him.  I am tottally not getting your point.

Oakland.  Carr...is their guy.  He had a bad year...he has had a good year.  Bad year, bad record.  new coach etc....

Fish.  Tannehill...again...out all of last season....

 

Translation.  EVERY SINGLE TEAM on your list got BAD QB PLAY last year...some had rookies, some had old dudes...some had their guy miss part of or all of the year.  the lesson here is a simple one.  BAD QB = HARD TO WIN.  HARD TO COMPETE.  GOOD QB = COMPETE EVERY YEAR.  

 

 

A more complete refutation of the post that started this woeful thread could not be written though I think it could be slightly improved by ending it with a "Good Day Sir!"

[BillsVet]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Of course some people are not going to be convinced and like to be nasty.  You can not read threads that you disagree with.  Is there any need to turn into a censorship Nazi?  Chill out is a good option.

 

11 years on TBD and I've never been called a Nazi.  Nice job Hondo.

 

I don't have the power to "censor" you and no one's doing that. You've made your point. So, now it's time to move on and stop arguing with anyone who disagrees with you.

 

Have some respect.  

[DrDawkinstein]

5 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Funny thing.

 

 

Dude, your posts are good, but your threads are horrible and quickly reaching crusading status.

[gobills1212]

55 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

 

 

At the end of the day, I see microeconomic theory as applicable when the costs are known or at least can be nearly quantified. I think Beane did a remarkable job of this during the offseason and even during the previous year. He's manipulated the cost structure/talent level/output with a scalpel. 

But dealing in variables like the NFL draft and in particular, the outcomes of an NFL QB from the draft, life gets pretty muddled pretty fast.

And in this particular situation, it's not only the costs involved to you. It is the costs associated with allowing someone else - particularly your rival - to use that excess value against you for the next 10 years. The process is in place and I'll trust it. But if the next 20 years turns out pretty much like the last 20, there are going to be only a few teams standing with a real QB that takes them to the Super Bowl year after year and this seems like a pivotal point in that process.  

Baker Mayfield, possibly Josh Rosen. The rest of it is noise. 

THIS is why your posts drive me nuts. 

The 1st 3/4 of this actually makes sense to a degree like you might be on to something.

Then you follow it up acting like you are smarter than 30ish GMs and it loses credibility.  

I'm sorry to have to be this blunt... but...

YOU DONT KNOW. 

Stop acting like you do. You have an opinion just like everyone else. That's all. Stop being so dismissive and your world will change dramatically.  I promise

[SouthNYfan]

3 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

11 years on TBD and I've never been called a Nazi.  Nice job Hondo.

 

I don't have the power to "censor" you and no one's doing that. You've made your point. So, now it's time to move on and stop arguing with anyone who disagrees with you.

 

Have some respect.  

 

Hondo?

Hedoesn't deserve that title.

John Wayne would be rolling in his grave.

 

[Tyrod's friend]

11 minutes ago, gobills1212 said:

 

Stop acting like you do. You have an opinion just like everyone else. That's all. Stop being so dismissive and your world will change dramatically.  I promise

And this is what makes you a jacka$$.

Because you continually - and not just to me, but to everyone - want to deny them the right to have an opinion. The WHOLE POINT of doing objective analysis is to come away with an opinion.  

OBVIOUSLY I DO NOT KNOW. Does that it ANY WAY need to be stated clearly? Get off your high horse and stop condemning people for thinking something.

Edit: Really. I mean just look at the history of your posts. You are f-in ja$$, tell-people-to-shut-up loser. We are all entitled to have an opinion here. And in my entire time posting on boards like this, going back nearly 20 years I've never felt the need to put someone on ignore. Always gotta be a first and you are it, fella.

Edited April 7, 2018 by Tyrod's friend

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

45 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

11 years on TBD and I've never been called a Nazi.  Nice job Hondo.

 

I don't have the power to "censor" you and no one's doing that. You've made your point. So, now it's time to move on and stop arguing with anyone who disagrees with you.

 

Have some respect.  

 

Crusaders gonna crusade.

[Dr. Who]

I don't want a franchsie qb anyway.  All they ever do is surrender.

[maryland-bills-fan]

5 hours ago, jahbonas said:

Its an absolute myth that the QB is the majic bullet to all - maybe for fantasy football kids.

Add up the playoff appearances of these top QB's the last 6 years if QB was it all:

Phillip Rivers

Andrew Luck

Drew Brees

Eli Manning

Matthew Stafford

Joe Flacco

 

The only true majic bullet is a QB that can give you competent QB play at a rookie contract price - allowing for a solid team around him.

 

Every QB needs a surrounding cast of players and good coaching in order to succeed - this idea a single QB raises all is ridiculous bullsh##

You are right.  A great QB can not make a WR outrun the DB on a fly pattern.  He can not pass the ball to a WR who doesn't get open.   When two o-linemen wiff on a block, he doesn't unfurl his pixy wings and rise into the air.

4 hours ago, gobills1212 said:

Respectfully, this is A LOT of reading and writing.

If you are a big enough fan to post on a message board - you shouldnt need other teams QBs summed up for you. 

Even then, the SOUNDS LIKE A F.QB designation makes me wonder if this summary is for us for for you. Miami for example has been rumored to not trust Tanny will be able to stay healthy, thus in the market for a qb - making your SOUNDS like a FQB wishy washy at best. So, are you ASKING who needs someone and who doesnt?

Then again, we did have a gentleman a couple weeks ago who wasn't aware tyrod had been traded.... so what do I know??

Lol, decided to knock a few back and bust out the ol crystal ball early on a Sat huh? 

  The fish just gave Tanneyhill a big contract.  I doubt they are going QB or trading up to get one of the top two.   They might take someone in the 1st that drops down to them.

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article208018169.html

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-dolphins/fl-sp-dolphins-qb-first-round-20180303-story.html

[maryland-bills-fan]

4 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

-"Bucks"? It's Bucs.

Their QB is WINSTON not "Wilson"

Oh he also had an injury to his throwing shoulder in week 6, tried to play through it, wound up missing 3 weeks, total of 13 games played.

He also became the youngest player in NFL history to throw for 10,000 yards, breaking bledsoe's record.

 

 

-Dolphins. Tannehill is actually questionable, as many feel the dolphins might draft a replacement since he can't stay in the field

 

-Bears. Trubisky was a rookie, on a bad team, all even if he doesn't wind up panning out, they aren't going to draft a guy this year already

 

-49ers have Jimmy G, who was a midseason trade, and started what? 5 of their 16 games? Where he was undefeated and lit up the competition.

 

-Raiders and Carr? The dude is really, really good, was coming back from a broken leg, and the whole team just seemed to underperform last year..

 

-Texans. Watson TORE HIS ACL and missed more than half the season. Durrrr.

 

-Giants. Eli is at the end of his career, 1-2 years left if he doesn't have a career year, it's probably only one. He had arguably one of his worst seasons last year and is coming up on the end of a contract.

 

-Colts. Luck was out the ENTIRE YEAR WITH A SHOULDER INJURY. He didn't play a single snap even in preseason.

 

My favorite??

 

-Browns!? Their QB is TYROD not kizer. Kizer isn't even in the team anymore. You literally don't even know that their QB is your own teams' former QB!? FFS man.

 

You have literally no idea about any of the teams your listed.

 

 

Should delete himself.

 

 

It is sorry to see you saying somebody should kill themself.  Is a football discussion site that important to you?    By the way, sorry to upset you about having "Buck" instead of "Buc".  I usually write longer writings in a word process first in order to avoid fat-finger mistakes in typing. Spell check and replace must have jump in without my noticing.  Sorry to see that upset you so much.

[SouthNYfan]

1 minute ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

It is sorry to see you saying somebody should kill themself.  Is a football discussion site that important to you?    By the way, sorry to upset you about having "Buck" instead of "Buc".  I usually write longer writings in a word process first in order to avoid fat-finger mistakes in typing. Spell check and replace must have jump in without my noticing.  Sorry to see that upset you so much.

 

Never said you should "kill yourself" .

Was implying to delete your forum account.

Way to focus on that or the "bucks" thing and ignore the entire rest of your complete trash post that was inaccurate across the board.