More Analytics That Suggests This QB Class Is Average At Best...

[Domdab99]

56 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Tom Brady's "ceiling":

Junior Year: 14/10 TD INT Ratio, 61% completion 

Senior Year: 16/6 TD INT Ratio, 61% completion

 

It must be fun making a snarky comment about an article you obviously  didn’t read. You have no clue what the metric the writer used is - that’s obvious by your post.

53 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I read the statement, which is a standalone sentence, in the largest font in the OP. It makes no reference to their college success rate. It says their definitive ceiling is their college stats. If it said their ceiling is their college success rate I might have dug into how they arrive at their college success rate, but it isn't what was said.

 

So you’re saying a quote from the article doesn’t explain the whole metric and hat you made your decision based on incomplete info and didn’t bother reading the article??

 

holy ****, you people are amazing

Edited April 5, 2018 by Domdab99

[Chris66]

5 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

Trading a bunch of picks (expecially including next years #1) for Josh Allen is my nightmare scenario.

Cant say I disagree. Just from a statistical point the chances any one of these qbs become something special is slim.

[Domdab99]

54 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

All we know for sure is the Bills need a QB. And there seem to be plenty of prospects in this draft.

 

 

 If that’s the case, why break the bank for one of them when you can get another at a lower cost?

[DrDawkinstein]

5 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

Omg it’s just a grab from the article to interest you into reading it. Holy **** you people are amazing. 

 

Dont take it too personally. A lot of us are just burnt out on the same arguments being rehashed over and over, when none of us really know anything. And it seems like it's taking YEARS for this draft to come.

 

1 minute ago, Chris66 said:

Cant say I disagree. Just from a statistical point the chances any one of these qbs become something special is slim.

 

Why? There has been at least 1 good/"special" QB in almost every draft with a couple of prospects. This draft has somewhere between 3-6 good prospects. I'd expect at least 1-2 good QBs to come out.

2 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 If that’s the case, why break the bank for one of them when you can get another at a lower cost?

 

Because we want that TOP guy, or at least one of the top few guys.

 

I dont want to settle for 2nd tier the way they Bills have for almost their entire existence. That has gotten us nowhere.

[Domdab99]

38 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

Hard as they may try, there is no science to this and there never will be.

 

 

If only we had some analytical data to look at, right?

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, Domdab99 said:

 

If only we had some analytical data to look at, right?

 

And yet that data doesnt really mean squat. It's the equivalent to the "past results" board at a roulette table. It's only there to make you a sucker, and believe there could be actual trends. When fact is, all chances reset with every new spin, and none of the past results have any effect on the future.

[Domdab99]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

And yet that data doesnt really mean squat. It's the equivalent to the "past results" board at a roulette table. It's only there to make you a sucker, and believe there could be actual trends. When fact is, all chances reset with every new spin, and none of the past results have any effect on the future.

 

So we should close our eyes and throw a dart at the QB board, and hope we get lucky?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

3 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

So we should close our eyes and throw a dart at the QB board, and hope we get lucky?

Thanks for providing the info! It is simply another way to look at the problem, amongst many.

Edited April 5, 2018 by horned dogs

[Domdab99]

18 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

Trading a bunch of picks (expecially including next years #1) for Josh Allen is my nightmare scenario.

 

This! Almost every metric coming out is screaming that Allen is a bust. 

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, Domdab99 said:

 

So we should close our eyes and throw a dart at the QB board, and hope we get lucky?

 

No, you should focus on the current prospects for who they are. Not comparing them to past players as far as predicting their future. Build, style, athleticism comparisons are valid, but again, just because a guy looks and plays like a young Brett Favre, does not mean they'll have the same path at all.

 

And the guys making the decision, the professionals, have much better information and training in what to look for.

 

But in the end, yeah, they are still guessing. It's all a crap shoot. And then do all you can to put the player in a position to succeed.

[Madd Charlie]

7 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Two different players in two different eras going to two different teams with different coaches and different schemes and different situations all around.

NOTHING that Leaf did pertains to the future success or failure of Josh Allen.

 

Josh Allen is not Ryan Leaf. None of the specific prospects are any of the former players you want to compare them to. They are their own person with their own career path.

 

You can like Mayfield all you want. I'm not trying to stop people from picking favorites. I get that we need to talk about something during these down months. And the easiest way to do that is comparing the current prospects to past players. But it isnt an accurate means of assessment, at all. None of our guessing, or researching, or prognosticating matters.

So the question is who are they and how do you evaluate them then? The future of the Bills for the next 3-10 years is about to revolve are some dude that will be drafted in a few weeks. The truth is there is no reason to think that Allen will be better than Leaf on the football field. The stats don't back it up level of competition doesn't back it up, what is it that has people so excited about Allen? Its media repeating thing over and over until we all jump on board and the reverse happened with Jackson. Passion is blinding so when things get crazy I say use the data instead of your heart.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Madd Charlie said:

So the question is who are they and how do you evaluate them then? The future of the Bills for the next 3-10 years is about to revolve are some dude that will be drafted in a few weeks. The truth is there is no reason to think that Allen will be better than Leaf on the football field. The stats don't back it up level of competition doesn't back it up, what is it that has people so excited about Allen? Its media repeating thing over and over until we all jump on board and the reverse happened with Jackson. Passion is blinding so when things get crazy I say use the data instead of your heart.

 

Yep. And its the same either way. Everything is just to fill time and get views/clicks until Draft Day. Some will say Player X is a future hall of famer, some will say Player X is a guaranteed bust. There are plenty of ways to analyze the same stats and the same film, and come out with different results, and post them online for all to discuss.

 

The GMs and scouts have their own opinions, and analysis, and we'll see how it goes.

[HappyDays]

26 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

 

And yet I was just reading an article this morning - thankfully, I think you linked it or referred to it - where a FO metric of QBASE showed that Baker Mayfield is one of the top QBs to come out in the last 12 years. Something like that.

So we have two metrics, apparently from the same source, 180 degrees from one another. 

Honestly, I'm just asking and not trying to be snarky. But on the surface that's the read I am getting.

 

Mayfield had a very good college success rate too (54.8%), so both metrics would project him to succeed. But I'm more dubious about them projecting someone to be good than projecting someone to be a bust. The 2 QBs with a higher college success rate than Mayfield were Winston and Bradford and obviously neither of them have been elite.

[Fadingpain]

One of the myriad "draft experts" floating around was on with Schopp and Bulldog the other day.

 

He insisted that he liked last year's QB class a lot better than this year's. 

 

Also of note: just about every "expert" agrees that each of the top QB candidates this year has at least 1 flaw to their game.

 

As to whether or not any of them are spectacular, only time will tell.

 

I'd rather swing and miss than hide.

 

 

[Boca BIlls]

1 hour ago, Adam said:

We made the playoffs last year

Exactly yet we won't make  playoffs if we trade up...

[SouthNYfan]

39 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

 

?? Wtf is wrong with you? I’ve even said in this thread I have no idea what the right decision would be. I linked it because I though other Bills fans would find it interesting, not because I necessarily think it’s gospel.

 

what an !@#$ you must be in real life. Go outsides and take a run or something, Gomer. You need to let off some steam.

 

Generally people don't provide links to a stance on a topic unless they agree with it, or they explicitly state in their opening post that they don't.

Why would you post something you didn't agree with? 

You only said you didn't know what the right decision was after people were like "this is dumb"

[DrDawkinstein]

33 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

Trading a bunch of picks (expecially including next years #1) for Josh Allen is my nightmare scenario.

 

If, after all this, Allen is the prospect Beane and McD have identified as their guy and move up to #2 to get him, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

My nightmare scenario is being shut out of the top guys, having to take a LB at #12, and then getting stuck with "whoever is left" at #22 (or even worse, in the 2nd round).

 

That's just more QB purgatory.

[reddogblitz]

Allen is rated high because he has all the measuables.  Height, weight, hand size, etc and he can throw the football a country mile.  Some scouts eat this stuff up to the exclusion of how accurately he can throw the football.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

One of the myriad "draft experts" floating around was on with Schopp and Bulldog the other day.

 

He insisted that he liked last year's QB class a lot better than this year's. 

 

Also of note: just about every "expert" agrees that each of the top QB candidates this year has at least 1 flaw to their game.

 

As to whether or not any of them are spectacular, only time will tell.

 

I'd rather swing and miss than hide.

 

 

 

Right on! The Bills have been bunting for far too long.

[Tatonka68]

Sit at #12 and take best QB available. #22 best player available.