Over 29 years of fanhood Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 Can the draft please happen already so we can move on to talking up our 6th rounder and some udfa as the next hall of famer?!?!? 1
SouthNYfan Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Domdab99 said: Once again, I didn't write the article, Numbnuts. No, but you linked it, and are acting like it's gospel. Moron.
4merper4mer Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said: It's because you aren't looking at the "right stats" to show his ceiling. You know, the cherry picked stats that bolster the pov that the op and article are coming from. Yeah I just want the band-aid ripped off at this point. If we bleed out, so be it. Do people love Josh Allen because Todd McShay told them they should? How about instead of bashing the article, someone comes up with one QB in the history of football that had stats as crappy as Allen's in college and became a good pro. Just one. More would be better but one is a start. That would refute the article and the method. But nope. Wishes and buts are now candy and nuts and Allen will bring us a wonderful Christmas because Santa Todd said. He will be even better if we give the Giants 3 first rounders, 2 seconds and two thirds for their #2. I think if we throw in Eichel so the Giants can get him over to the Rangers then Allen is HOF material. 3
GunnerBill Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 (edited) Is an interesting article Domdab. Thanks for posting. I am in the all in on a trade up crowd but I still find this article a very interesting read. When deciding anything in life you should always look at evidence that supports the opposite point of view rather than dismiss it. Personally I think the only way to evaluate college QBs is watching their tape and looking at whether they are good at doing the things that win in the NFL. Those things are pretty universally accepted: - be accurate (especially in the short and intermediate) range; - have a consistent and repeatable motion (footwork and release) that stands up under pressure (doesn't need to be a classic motion but needs to be consistent and repeatable); - be an anticipatory thrower; - be good decision maker; - make the high degree of difficulty throws; After that you get into the other stuff - how well does he move, how big is his arm, how good is he in the clutch (I said cLutch Baker you can stop grabbing yourself now), is he a leader etc... but that comes later. Those 5 things above are the ones you have to focus on - how well do they do those things. Edited April 5, 2018 by GunnerBill 2
Adam Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 41 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said: Your posts are average at best. Trade up get the QB the team wants and start making the playoffs. We made the playoffs last year 1 1
dpberr Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 Even a time machine couldn't change the mysteriously emotionally invested fanboys these quartbacks have on the board. "We went into the future. Josh Allen is out of the league by 2020. Here are the newspapers to prove it." Emotionally charged fanboy response: "You don't know that for sure." 1
Madd Charlie Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 Everybody is draft drunk it's pretty clear the article is correct about the fact that there are no elite QBs. If there were we would already know for sure who the top 2 are and we don't have a clue. There's not even agreement on who the top QB is that tells you all you need to know. The guys who end up in the right system have a shot the rest will be average or busts. 1
SouthNYfan Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said: Do people love Josh Allen because Todd McShay told them they should? How about instead of bashing the article, someone comes up with one QB in the history of football that had stats as crappy as Allen's in college and became a good pro. Just one. More would be better but one is a start. That would refute the article and the method. But nope. Wishes and buts are now candy and nuts and Allen will bring us a wonderful Christmas because Santa Todd said. He will be even better if we give the Giants 3 first rounders, 2 seconds and two thirds for their #2. I think if we throw in Eichel so the Giants can get him over to the Rangers then Allen is HOF material. I read the long, dumba$$ article that says by the end started that Josh Rosen's ceiling is Brandon Weeden, Darnold's is Colt McCoy, Rudolp's is hard Goff, and Allen is Tebow/kizer. Kizer and McCoy barely have any NFL stats to go off of, yet this guy claims to be using the first 4 years of NFL player's stats as projections, when kizer only has one season under his belt. I honestly don't know which QB will be the best, nobody does, and every single scout uses different metrics and film study to project a draftee. Articles like this one which basically claim to have figured out some magical, convoluted system of advanced metrics to project don't mean crap. Moneyball failed in baseball because it relied solely on advanced metrics.
reddogblitz Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 (edited) 51 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said: Trade up get the QB the team wants and start making the playoffs. its as easy as that. Its amazing that the other 21 teams that don't have "franchise QB"s have never been able to figure that out like you have! Start making the playoffs? Did you muiss the 2017 season? The drought is dead like the wicked Witch of the East. I don't know about systems but I'm not sold on any of these guys. Edited April 5, 2018 by reddogblitz 2
GunnerBill Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Madd Charlie said: Everybody is draft drunk it's pretty clear the article is correct about the fact that there are no elite QBs. If there were we would already know for sure who the top 2 are and we don't have a clue. There's not even agreement on who the top QB is that tells you all you need to know. The guys who end up in the right system have a shot the rest will be average or busts. And why can't that be because there are more good ones than usual?
DrDawkinstein Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 Why are you actively competing for the title of "Most **** Threads"?
BillsMafioso Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 He’s got a point. Tom Brady’s ceiling is and always has been Brian Scalabrine.
ndirish1978 Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 SBnation is not the most reputable of sources OP. I see you're catching some flak for posting this (it does seem like you're just posting things that back up your already established opinion, but that's not really a unique thing here so I won't complain about that). It would probably be a better idea to back up your position with articles from actual professionals and not a website whose content is amateur at best. When you see Scouts Inc has the top 4 prospects at QB graded in the 90s, this article from Bill Connelly, who is not even a professional writer, doesn't really hold that much water.
HappyDays Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 44 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: A prospect's ceiling is his college stats? That might be the dumbest thing I read all draft season. If you read the article they're actually talking about college success rate which is a Football Outsiders metric. They looked at 38 QBs drafted between 2010 and 2017 that have thrown at least 300 passes in the NFL. Not one of those 38 QBs exceed their college success rate in the NFL. Only 3 of those 38 came within 3 percentage points of their college success rate. So when you look at Josh Allen his college success rate was 43.3%. If you assume the best outcome for him - coming within 3% of that in the pros - his ceiling is 40.3% which is right around Ryan Mallett's success rate. That being said, he calculated the correlation between college success rate and NFL success rate at just 0.272 which is barely even a weak positive correlation in traditional statistics. So success rate isn't a great tool but you can seemingly determine their ceiling at least. If Josh Allen matches or exceed his college success rate he will be the first QB to do so since at least 2010 and he only has about a 7.9% chance of even reaching that Mallett level. I haven't found any analytical evaluations that project him as anything but a major bust. 2
Madd Charlie Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: And why can't that be because there are more good ones than usual? Not impossible technically but when you look at the critiques of the prospects it doesn't seem very likely. Too short, bad accuracy, not sure football will keep his interest, inaccurate, too many interceptions ect. These are things that were not being said about Manning, Luck, and other "can't miss" prospects 2
Rigotz Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 Tom Brady's "ceiling": Junior Year: 14/10 TD INT Ratio, 61% completion Senior Year: 16/6 TD INT Ratio, 61% completion 1
BADOLBILZ Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, Madd Charlie said: Everybody is draft drunk it's pretty clear the article is correct about the fact that there are no elite QBs. If there were we would already know for sure who the top 2 are and we don't have a clue. There's not even agreement on who the top QB is that tells you all you need to know. The guys who end up in the right system have a shot the rest will be average or busts. Whether they are elite QB's or not is to be determined. Elite prospects is another matter.......there are elite prospects at QB in this draft.......there are 5 guys in this group that could go #1 in a given draft year, IMO. 1
BuffaloHokie13 Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, HappyDays said: If you read the article they're actually talking about college success rate which is a Football Outsiders metric. They looked at 38 QBs drafted between 2010 and 2017 that have thrown at least 300 passes in the NFL. Not one of those 38 QBs exceed their college success rate in the NFL. Only 3 of those 38 came within 3 percentage points of their college success rate. So when you look at Josh Allen his college success rate was 43.3%. If you assume the best outcome for him - coming within 3% of that in the pros - his ceiling is 40.3% which is right around Ryan Mallett's success rate. That being said, he calculated the correlation between college success rate and NFL success rate at just 0.272 which is barely even a weak positive correlation in traditional statistics. So success rate isn't a great tool but you can seemingly determine their ceiling at least. If Josh Allen matches or exceed his college success rate he will be the first QB to do so since at least 2010 and he only has about a 7.9% chance of even reaching that Mallett level. I haven't found any analytical evaluations that project him as anything but a major bust. I read the statement, which is a standalone sentence, in the largest font in the OP. It makes no reference to their college success rate. It says their definitive ceiling is their college stats. If it said their ceiling is their college success rate I might have dug into how they arrive at their college success rate, but it isn't what was said.
DrDawkinstein Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 Just now, Madd Charlie said: Not impossible technically but when you look at the critiques of the prospects it doesn't seem very likely. Too short, bad accuracy, not sure football will keep his interest, inaccurate, too many interceptions ect. These are things that were not being said about Manning, Luck, and other "can't miss" prospects There were PLENTY of questions on Manning, to the point that the Colts were debating between him and Leaf right up to the draft. Luck had the fewest questions, for sure, and he hasnt exactly been in the running to be the next GOAT either. So what is all that worth? This entire song & dance to try to accurately predict which QB will be successful is mostly BS. Especially from folks as far removed as us fans. You can try to look for trends and similarities, but the fact is, EVERY rookie situation will be different. Just because one player did something years ago doesnt mean that any player this year will be the same. Success or Failure doesnt happen in a vacuum. Just because a player does well on one team does NOT guarantee he'd be just as good everywhere else. Coaching, scheme, heck even personal stuff, all factor in. All we know for sure is the Bills need a QB. And there seem to be plenty of prospects in this draft.
HappyDays Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 (edited) 11 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: I read the statement, which is a standalone sentence, in the largest font in the OP. It makes no reference to their college success rate. It says their definitive ceiling is their college stats. If it said their ceiling is their college success rate I might have dug into how they arrive at their college success rate, but it isn't what was said. Read the whole article, not just the posted blurb. He specifically mentions rate statistics and says success rate is the one with the highest correlation from college to the pros. Quote It makes sense, right? Just as we don’t expect a blue-chip running back to average 12 yards per carry in college like he perhaps did in high school, a college back who averaged seven yards per carry in college probably isn’t going to do so in the NFL. And the odds of a quarterback matching his college stats at the next level are almost null. That is, he won’t match his rate stats. Keenum, for instance, isn’t throwing 50 times per game in the NFL like he did in his junior year at Houston, so his per-game yardage totals will be different. But things like completion rate, interception rate, etc., can be more telling. And success rate can be extremely telling. Quote Stats will never tell you everything about what a player can do. In this case, though, it tells you what certain players probably can’t. And in the case of Josh Allen, it would take a spectacular outlier performance — one that hasn’t happened this decade — to live up to the expectations of the top-five or top-10 pick it appears he will become. So success rate isn't a perfect tool. But out of a sample size of 38 QBs it has found a ceiling you can expect for each QB - an NFL success rate 3% lower than their college success rate - and that ceiling isn't very likely anyways (7.9% of those 38 QBs hit it). Now 38 is a fairly small sample size, maybe there's a 1 in 40 chance that a QB will exceed his college success rate in the pros and this sample size wasn't large enough to find one. But it paints a troubling picture. Edited April 5, 2018 by HappyDays 1
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