More Analytics That Suggests This QB Class Is Average At Best...

[Domdab99]

...And that Josh Allen is a monster bust.

 

There’s a new approach to NFL QB projections — and the 2018 draft class is in trouble

 

Great article. One of the things that stands out is that, based on this analysis, Josh Allen's ceiling is Ryan Mallett. 

 

***

"Heading into the NFL Draft at the end of April, so much analysis always focuses on the idea of projection, on what a guy might be able to do, not necessarily what he’s done.

This makes sense, of course, to a point — so much of success at any level is based on situation, scheme, and circumstance. The right coach, teammates, or system can make an immense difference, plus these guys haven’t faced NFL talent, with NFL coaching, before. Plenty of QBs with great college stats have bombed out in the pros, and plenty with merely good stats have thrived.

NFL GMs can be forgiven for thinking that, once we get a kid in our system, it’s all gonna work out just fine. We can fix his flaws and maximize his talent. Stats will only tell you so much. They are, dare we say, for losers.

If we look at the right stats, however, and do so from the right perspective, we can still get further down the road than we would get just relying on basic stats or the eye test.

For instance, we definitively know a prospect’s ceiling: His college stats."

Edited April 5, 2018 by Domdab99

[Boca BIlls]

Your posts are average at best. Trade up get the QB the team wants and start making the playoffs.

Edited April 5, 2018 by Boca BIlls

[Domdab99]

1 minute ago, Boca BIlls said:

Your posts are average at best. Trade up get the QB the team wants and start making the playoffs.

 

lol at least I read that article before having an opinion, Sparky. 

[Boca BIlls]

Just now, Domdab99 said:

 

lol at least I read that article before having an opinion, Sparky. 

I don't need to read some ****ty article you posted to know it means nothing. 

[BadLandsMeanie]

One reason there are always new approaches is because once they become older approaches, people find out they don't work.

 

Put another way, better to wait until something is time tested before believing it.

 

 

[ddaryl]

sbnation says boo hiss, scouts inc says 2 thumbs up on 4 QB's

 

YOU MAKE THE CALL

[26CornerBlitz]

OP confirmation bias. 

[What a Tuel]

So how does AJ McCarron and Tyrod Taylor hold up to this? Worse? Ok, we agree then, move up and draft a better QB.

[BuffaloHokie13]

A prospect's ceiling is his college stats? That might be the dumbest thing I read all draft season.

[Domdab99]

5 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said:

I don't need to read some ****ty article you posted to know it means nothing. 

 

[Boca BIlls]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

A prospect's ceiling is his college stats? That might be the dumbest thing I read all draft season.

Need to watch the crap the OP posts.

[Domdab99]

lol okay, I get it now....no one wants to actually discuss things, they just want to confirm what they already believe.

 

You see, for me, I'd love to move up and get a franchise QB. I just don't want it to be a huge boondoggle where we select a Blaine Gabbert or a Jake Locker. I don't know what the correct answer is - move up to #2 and sell the farm, move up to #6 and grab Mayfield if he's there, grab whoever falls to #12, or wait until the 2nd or 3rd round and draft a QB there, while filling out the roster with other picks.

 

I really don't know. 

 

But apparently, everyone here does. Good for you! Discussion be damned lol. 

[Westside Madness]

"plenty with merely good stats have thrived."

 

"we definitively know a prospect’s ceiling: His college stats."

 

These statements, from the same article, oppose each other. This, to me, significantly impacts how seriously I take it.

[What a Tuel]

6 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

lol okay, I get it now....no one wants to actually discuss things, they just want to confirm what they already believe.

 

You see, for me, I'd love to move up and get a franchise QB. I just don't want it to be a huge boondoggle where we select a Blaine Gabbert or a Jake Locker. I don't know what the correct answer is - move up to #2 and sell the farm, move up to #6 and grab Mayfield if he's there, grab whoever falls to #12, or wait until the 2nd or 3rd round and draft a QB there, while filling out the roster with other picks.

 

I really don't know. 

 

But apparently, everyone here does. Good for you! Discussion be damned lol. 

 

It has been discussed non stop for weeks though. If someone really knows the key, they should go apply for a job. Most of us just want the draft to come now and our course to be set for better or for worse.

[Domdab99]

1 minute ago, What a Tuel said:

 

It has been discussed non stop for weeks though. If someone really knows the key, they should go apply for a job. Most of us just want the draft to come now and our course to be set for better or for worse.

 

Yeah, I just think it's funny that I share an article that might be interesting to some of you and I get shouted down like I wrote it. 

[Thurman#1]

You're duplicating another thread. Please check before posting.

 

"A New Approach to QB Projections ..."

 

 

Edited April 5, 2018 by Thurman#1

[DefenseWins]

8 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

lol okay, I get it now....no one wants to actually discuss things, they just want to confirm what they already believe.

 

You see, for me, I'd love to move up and get a franchise QB. I just don't want it to be a huge boondoggle where we select a Blaine Gabbert or a Jake Locker. I don't know what the correct answer is - move up to #2 and sell the farm, move up to #6 and grab Mayfield if he's there, grab whoever falls to #12, or wait until the 2nd or 3rd round and draft a QB there, while filling out the roster with other picks.

 

I really don't know. 

 

But apparently, everyone here does. Good for you! Discussion be damned lol. 

 

As if any one of us wants another Gabbert or a Locker. I trust in McBean's judgements partly based on the moves he has already made. That is all we can do right now. It's his job thats on the line here ultimately. I think everybody on this board understands that there are two different points of view on this draft and that none of us are gonna change our respective positions. 

[SouthNYfan]

10 minutes ago, Westside Madness said:

"plenty with merely good stats have thrived."

 

"we definitively know a prospect’s ceiling: His college stats."

 

These statements, from the same article, oppose each other. This, to me, significantly impacts how seriously I take it.

 

It's because you aren't looking at the "right stats" to show his ceiling.

You know, the cherry picked stats that bolster the pov that the op and article are coming from.

 

 

7 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

It has been discussed non stop for weeks though. If someone really knows the key, they should go apply for a job. Most of us just want the draft to come now and our course to be set for better or for worse.

 

Yeah I just want the band-aid ripped off at this point.

If we bleed out, so be it.

 

[Domdab99]

1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

It's because you aren't looking at the "right stats" to show his ceiling.

You know, the cherry picked stats that bolster the pov that the op and article are coming from.

 

 

 

Once again, I didn't write the article, Numbnuts. 

[Coach55]

Great article and post.  Fully agree on Allen.  Rosen now in the same bucket.  Would love to know how Lauletta faired as I think he may be the most successful prospect in this draft class.