Tyrod's friend Posted April 4, 2018 Author Posted April 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, DCOrange said: The way I see it, the Rams were screwed in a couple years anyways when they'll likely be paying Gurley, Goff, and Donald roughly $70 million per year, so they might as well push their chips in for these next couple of years and hope that it's worth the pain and suffering that will come in the future. Go back a couple of years and imagine you are creating a strategy for a multibillion dollar organization - and figuring on long term capital expenditures. Is it possible that when the Rams busted a move on trading away a top pick for RGIII that they knew then, that the cap would change? Is that giving them too much credit?
Pete Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, MarkyMannn said: LOL I can't wait for the draft, just to see what happens !@#$ yeah!
Thurman#1 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said: LA Rams Strategy Begs Question: Are Draft Picks overvalued? With the flipside of that question being something like, "or are the Rams making a mistake in undervaluing them in their current situation"? It's generally been considered good strategy to collect picks when you're looking at long-term results, but generally not such good strategy if you think you've got a window of a year or two. Is that what the Rams think? Is this a coordinated strategy, or just a result of a bunch of moves they happen to have liked? Will they do the same thing next year? People said the Pats were giving up on draft picks last year and now they trade Cooks for a pick. They're terrific at arbitrage. Is that what the Rams are trying to do? Too soon to know, really.
jr1 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 you can afford a lot of free agents when your starting QB is under a rookie contract 1
Thurman#1 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Pete said: slightly OT- would you rather have Jared Goff or Aaron Donald? Myself, Aaron Donald all day. He is one of best players in the NFL Jared Goff without the slightest question. You're right that Donald is one of the best players in the entire league. Goff, however, is a quarterback. I think he's going to be a top 10 or 12 guy and they're the most valuable players in the league. Edited April 4, 2018 by Thurman#1
klos63 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, DCOrange said: The way I see it, the Rams were screwed in a couple years anyways when they'll likely be paying Gurley, Goff, and Donald roughly $70 million per year, so they might as well push their chips in for these next couple of years and hope that it's worth the pain and suffering that will come in the future. If they win a super bowl before that happens, then the strategy worked. Cap will be up a lot in the next few seasons, rosters change all the time. As long as you don't sign someone and then get rid of them with lot's of dead space on the books, teams should be able to manage. If I'm a Ram's fan, I'm pumped for the next few seasons. 1
BillsFan17 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 They went and got their QB, now they are selling out to build around him, I see nothing wrong with their approach.
apuszczalowski Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 Their approach is not likely one that can be sustained and is more of a boom or bust approach to the next couple years. Because they have been bad for a few years they have accumulated a lot of talent through the draft that has worked out well and are on cheap deals. They have a QB, RB, DE and some WRs on cheap or rookie deals that are coming up soon and going to be expensive. They will have some big cap issues then that will cause them problems which won't be an issue of they win a SB, but will be devastating if they dont 1
Tyrod's friend Posted April 4, 2018 Author Posted April 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: With the flipside of that question being something like, "or are the Rams making a mistake in undervaluing them in their current situation"? It's generally been considered good strategy to collect picks when you're looking at long-term results, but generally not such good strategy if you think you've got a window of a year or two. Is that what the Rams think? Is this a coordinated strategy, or just a result of a bunch of moves they happen to have liked? Will they do the same thing next year? People said the Pats were giving up on draft picks last year and now they trade Cooks for a pick. They're terrific at arbitrage. Is that what the Rams are trying to do? Too soon to know, really. Here's a general question and I don't think I've seen it answered anywhere that I've looked ... Teams are making decisions to move around capital. They have to know that a pick has a value. I mean, an intrinsic dollar value. You would have to expect that wouldn't you? Based on the way any organization works? They aren't using things as antiquated as a chart Jimmy Johnson created before tablets and smart phones. Surely we could calculate that value on some level. A pick in the top 10 is expected to be a ... Pro Bowl player. A PB player earns X. The draft pick will cost us Y. The likelihood of getting a PB is NN% and the likelihood he will be at least an NFL starter for 5 years is PP%. A pick in the next 10 changes the paradigms. Any pick after the 2nd round, the percentages are too random to be calculated. Brandon Cooks will play for 1 more year at WR at a near PB level - say, SW's. Sammy signed for $16MM (?). Cooks roughly = SW. The 22nd pick in the NFL Draft has a value of the above percentages. Honestly I think this is the level of thought that happens and we just don't see it. We don't even attempt to calculate it.
apuszczalowski Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, BillsFan17 said: They went and got their QB, now they are selling out to build around him, I see nothing wrong with their approach. Rams fans will in a couple years if they dont win a SB....
MarkyMannn Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, apuszczalowski said: Rams fans will in a couple years if they dont win a SB.... I guess that the whole point. Rams are pushing HARD for a SB win. Then 3 years of 7-9 thereafter. I'd settle for that for the Bills. At least you get a win
Malazan Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 I'd wait to see how all of these investments pan out. Remember the dream team? 2
apuszczalowski Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: With the flipside of that question being something like, "or are the Rams making a mistake in undervaluing them in their current situation"? It's generally been considered good strategy to collect picks when you're looking at long-term results, but generally not such good strategy if you think you've got a window of a year or two. Is that what the Rams think? Is this a coordinated strategy, or just a result of a bunch of moves they happen to have liked? Will they do the same thing next year? People said the Pats were giving up on draft picks last year and now they trade Cooks for a pick. They're terrific at arbitrage. Is that what the Rams are trying to do? Too soon to know, really. How many other teams have been able to do what the Pats do when it comes to trading and recovering draft picks? They always seem to acquire guys for next to nothing that become keys and then dump them right before they fall off a cliff for way more. I cant think of another team that's been able to do what they do. 4 minutes ago, MarkyMannn said: I guess that the whole point. Rams are pushing HARD for a SB win. Then 3 years of 7-9 thereafter. I'd settle for that for the Bills. At least you get a win There is no guarantee of that win though, and 7-9 might be a bit generous depending on how things shape out contract wise. The Pat's have been lucky because they keep going because their QB signs team friendly deals to give them space for extra talent that's also willing to sign lesser deals to go there. 1
klos63 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said: Their approach is not likely one that can be sustained and is more of a boom or bust approach to the next couple years. Because they have been bad for a few years they have accumulated a lot of talent through the draft that has worked out well and are on cheap deals. They have a QB, RB, DE and some WRs on cheap or rookie deals that are coming up soon and going to be expensive. They will have some big cap issues then that will cause them problems which won't be an issue of they win a SB, but will be devastating if they dont They go into next season currently with $80 million in cap space. It will go up again and they will probably shed some contracts too. They already have a strong team. Some in buffalo are thrilled to have $100 million next season and we aren't up the Rams talent level. If we were in the Rams position, we'd be thrilled. I'm not sure I see a huge cap issue for them in 3 -4 years. Talib gone, Suh gone....$25 million right there. 1
Alphadawg7 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 53 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said: "All of these old and/or expensive players can’t be replaced easily in the draft because the Rams have traded away so many picks: They sent their first-round pick to New England for Cooks, their second-round pick to Buffalo for Sammy Watkins, their fourth-round pick this year and second-round pick next year to Kansas City for Peters, their fifth-round pick to Denver for Talib and their seventh-round pick to Washington for Derek Carrier. The Rams have added some draft picks in trades as well, but those are late in the draft: The Rams’ first draft pick is 87th overall, and that’s their only pick in the Top 130."Has the expanding cap space increased the value of a draft pick, or decreased it? Given the fixed cost of draft picks and the increasing costs of signing veterans it doesn't seem there can be another way to see this. The value of draft picks must be going up. What does this say about the Rams strategy over the last several years? For those that remember, isn't it familiar to see a former George Allen team seem to turn it's back on rookie talent?http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/04/04/rams-have-plenty-of-cap-space-in-2019-and-theyll-need-it/ Dan Snyder says no.
GunnerBill Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) I think it is indicative of a strategy change which is that the rookie pay scale means your best chance to win is with a young QB. 1. You draft one in the 1st round and get him secured for 4 years cheap and the 5th year option at reasonable money. 2. Then you give him his rookie year and in some cases if he needs it his second year (Goff needed year 2 to show he had it, Russell Wilson showed it by the end of year 1) 3. Then once you know you have a guy who is even top 10-15 in the league you push your chips into the middle of the table for years 3 and 4 of that rookie deal (and year 2 if like Russel Wilson you already know what you have). Load up on FAs with the money in those 3rd and 4th years. Get him protection and weapons and pass rushers and shut down corners. 4. Then in year 5 pay him the option or make year 1 of the new long term deal only a small bump over what he would have got through the option. To do that you have to start to wean him off some of the support structure so you shed some of your older difference makers. 5. By year 6 you now need that Quarterback to be good enough to not just contribute to you winning most weeks but to be THE reason you win most weeks and you shift the rest of your money to the other 4 "franchise positions" - LT, DE, WR1, CB1. 6. From thereon in you are filling the rest of your roster by accumulating draft picks to get cheap talent and street / dust settles FAs. EDIT: I should just add a #7 because every few years you might get a situation where your QB has a contract that is suddenly well below league value for a top 10-12 starter given the cap increase and have a "free year" where you can throw some money at free agency - Detroit had one of those years a couple of years ago and made the playoffs (thought obviously didn't win a playoff game.... I mean come on man.... it's Detroit). Edited April 4, 2018 by GunnerBill 2
BillsFan17 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said: Rams fans will in a couple years if they dont win a SB.... Isn't the point to try and win and win now? Of course there is the, if it doesn't work now they will be in trouble, but at least they are going for it. Worked for philly last year.
apuszczalowski Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, klos63 said: They go into next season currently with $80 million in cap space. It will go up again and they will probably shed some contracts too. They already have a strong team. Some in buffalo are thrilled to have $100 million next season and we aren't up the Rams talent level. If we were in the Rams position, we'd be thrilled. I'm not sure I see a huge cap issue for them in 3 -4 years. Talib gone, Suh gone....$25 million right there. But that $80 million in space also requires them having to replace players whose contracts are up and fill holes. Everyone gets excited over cap space but no one accounts for the fact that having that kind of space also means you usually have a lot of holes to fill to replace guys whose contracts are up to creating that space. 1
LabattBlue Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 What was the Rams strategy in acquiring Goff, Gurley, Donald, Kupp, etc..., or did they just fall out of a tree into their laps?
DC Tom Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: Dan Snyder says no. Dan Snyder only recently realized that he wasn't playing Fantasy Football, and collecting old overpriced talent doesn't work. Nitwit that he is, I'd expect any opinion he has on the subject to be a complete overreaction to that realization.
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