McShay Believes "High Probability" Buffalo Ultimately Trades to #2 (For Josh Allen)

[DFT]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Am I the only one at TSW who would like to see a lifetime ban on the term “draft capital”?

I’d like to also nominate the term, “Arm Talent”, if we’re compiling a list...

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, billspro said:

 

I would be shocked if Beane and McDermott put their careers on the line for Allen. He is so raw and if he ever develops it will most likely take a couple of years. Two years without production in the NFL usually ends up in people being fired. If it was me, I would be looking at one of the more polished QB prospects. 

 

 

 

Fair enough opinion. 

 

But Beane and McDermott are in a better situation than that. Expect them to be here for four or five more years unless something disastrous happens. And a top 5 pick of a QB sitting and developing for a couple of years if that's what he needs is not a disaster.

[snamsnoops]

1 hour ago, BillsFan17 said:

If buffalo has a path to the second overall pick they absolutely have to pull the trigger.

 

As far as what QB will be the choice, I can't envision the Bills meeting with Rosen/Mayfield as often as they have to go a different direction.

I agree and also think they would be interested in Darnold if he wasn't going to the Browns at #1!

[PIZ]

If they really want Josh Allen, then that's why they are not trading up to #2 yet.  If Allen is the target, then they'll want to make sure Cleveland doesn't take him, as the rumors suggest.

 

If the Bills staff goes TO Josh Allen to visit, does it still count against their 30 visits?  Couldn't they have made multiple trips to see / workout Allen at his location, to keep it secret?

[Mojo44]

20 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Sitting at 12 and waiting may bring in other teams to jump the Bill's.

If they like him (or someone else) at 12 they may HAVE to try to trade up (maybe using TT's #65) to "seal the deal" at pick #8 or #9.

 I do agree with this point and, also, I am “trusting the process”.So if they really feel that way about him and make some moves and give up some draft picks, so be it. I would be behind it.So if they really feel that way about him and make some moves and give up some draft picks, so be it. I would be behind it.

Sorry, are usually dictate my post and, for some reason, occasionally it doubles down on what I say.

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, Midwest1981 said:

Then why didn't we just draft Mahomes when he was there last year, instead of trading down with the Chiefs to let them take him, if the ultimate goal was to acquire that extra pick and then trade that and so much else (two 2nd's, two 3rd's, our 2019 1st seems in play) to move up the next year? 

 

It makes little sense to have demanded that the Chiefs pay appreciably less for their trade-up then we're being forced to pay now.  And for a prospect- if the target is in fact Allen- who if he fails had a glaringly obvious red flag in his (in)accuracy.

 

For the record, Watson was also available at 10 when we traded down.

Why?  Mcdermott imo didnt feel confident in his scout department and staff.  He obviously was aware that Whaley was a lame duck GM.  The complete overhaul of the whole scouting department would not have happened or would have looked foolish if Buffalo takes a QB in the first.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, Midwest1981 said:

Even a lot of "little draft"- like NDT Scouting- has surpassed McShay & Kiper in my mind in terms of quality of scouting/evaluation and draft prognostication.  So I don't take what either say with a tremendous amount of credence or credibility.

 

But I just thought I'd share that McShay said on Mike Greenberg's new show "Get Up" this morning that based on conversations he's had with league executives the expectation is that ultimately Beane gets a deal done with Gettleman to move up to pick #2.  His exact characterization:  "high probability."

 

EDIT:  20 minutes after this post "Get Up" added the McShay/Kiper interview from this morning to its podcast:

 

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/22943353

 

On McShay and Kiper's last Podcast around the 20:35 mark Todd says what he also said today:

 

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=22956078

 

It isn't the trading up part that's so troubling, though I personally think the cost is astronomical and prohibitive (I'd rather move up to 6 for Baker than 2 for Allen/Rosen and sacrifice half of the draft capital we've amassed; trading up to #2 will nearly wipe us clean).  It's that Allen is allegedly the target, someone who clearly and notoriously needs major refinement and might be a full two years from capably playing at this level, if it ever occurs.

 

If this happens Eli will have a shot at more rings than Brady 

[ddaryl]

15 minutes ago, mannc said:

Am I the only one at TSW who would like to see a lifetime ban on the term “draft capital”?

 

yes you are

[Boca BIlls]

2 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

Even a lot of "little draft"- like NDT Scouting- has surpassed McShay & Kiper in my mind in terms of quality of scouting/evaluation and draft prognostication.  So I don't take what either say with a tremendous amount of credence or credibility.

 

But I just thought I'd share that McShay said on Mike Greenberg's new show "Get Up" this morning that based on conversations he's had with league executives the expectation is that ultimately Beane gets a deal done with Gettleman to move up to pick #2.  His exact characterization:  "high probability."

 

EDIT:  20 minutes after this post "Get Up" added the McShay/Kiper interview from this morning to its podcast:

 

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/22943353

 

On McShay and Kiper's last Podcast around the 20:35 mark Todd says what he also said today:

 

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=22956078

 

It isn't the trading up part that's so troubling, though I personally think the cost is astronomical and prohibitive (I'd rather move up to 6 for Baker than 2 for Allen/Rosen and sacrifice half of the draft capital we've amassed; trading up to #2 will nearly wipe us clean).  It's that Allen is allegedly the target, someone who clearly and notoriously needs major refinement and might be a full two years from capably playing at this level, if it ever occurs.

You say you would rather move to 6 for Mayfield... If the Bills have Rosen as their #1 then why would they go after a lesser QB just so they don't have to give up picks. Doesn't make sense, you go after the guy you think will be a franchise QB for your team. You don't think I don't want to give up an extra first rounder so we will go with a guy who we don't believe in as much. 

 

You get one chance at this, you don't settle for less b.c you don't want to give up an extra pick.

Edited April 4, 2018 by Boca BIlls

[Reed83HOF]

6 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

 I do agree with this point and, also, I am “trusting the process”.So if they really feel that way about him and make some moves and give up some draft picks, so be it. I would be behind it.So if they really feel that way about him and make some moves and give up some draft picks, so be it. I would be behind it.

Sorry, are usually dictate my post and, for some reason, occasionally it doubles down on what I say.

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

47 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Cant agree at all. The situation a prospect goes into can make or break him. Rookies who get drafted by teams with a long standing, established, expert coaches always have exponentially better odds of success.

 

Player success/failure is not in a vacuum. Just because a guy failed going to one team doesnt necessarily mean he would have failed everywhere else. Same with success. The Browns and Bills could have broken plenty of the successful QBs that came out over the years.

 

Had the Bills snagged Russell Wilson, I doubt he's as successful coming into that Gailey team as he was going to Carrol who brought in specialized coaching just to prop up his QB.

 

Prescott, a 4th round gamble, got the luxury of going to Dallas where the HC, OC and QB Coach were not only former NFL QBs, but former COWBOY QBs. AND he had an entrenched starter with a huge football IQ to learn from. AND they were running an established offensive system that had been in place for years, so everyone was already on the same page.

 

Compare that to what EJ Manuel came into. First time NFL HC Marrone, first time NFL OC who was in way over his head and never played the game, no QB coach. That crap was done before it even started.

 

I'll grant you Culley/Daboll is better than that. But still not as good as it could be.

We'll never know the answer, but I will continue to believe the QB makes the coach.

[ddaryl]

4 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Why?  Mcdermott imo didnt feel confident in his scout department and staff.  He obviously was aware that Whaley was a lame duck GM.  The complete overhaul of the whole scouting department would not have happened or would have looked foolish if Buffalo takes a QB in the first.  

 

 

Yep the new GM was going ot be handed the responsibility of finding the new QB that is why . nobody at 1 Bills drive was going to trust Whaley's staff with that decision. Any new GM is going to want to make that pick themselves.

 

 

[Radar]

1 hour ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Talent evaluators and GM’s are wrong all the time.

 

And they constantly think they can mold raw ability and talent into success. 

 

The hardest thing to correct from a QB standpoint is accuracy. And Allen is not accurate.

Yeah, and us fans are right "all the time". Right.

 

 

 

 

[DefenseWins]

If you want one of the top 4 QBs you are gonna have to move into the top 4 picks. It's as simple as that. None of these guys is making it to 5 or 6.

 

TreDavious White was as good as any player we would have chosen at pick #10 last year (other than the QB's Mahomes or Watson) so the extra #22 pick we obtained is in some ways a free pick that we obtained because we didn't want Whaley to make the QB pick last year. That is history plain and simple.

 

So now we are paying a heavy price to move into the top 4 but it will be well worth it still if we select the right QB at either #2 or #4...

 

Just Do It and stop the constant whining about cost.

[Jay_Fixit]

35 minutes ago, DFT said:

I’d like to also nominate the term, “Arm Talent”, if we’re compiling a list...

Oh god yes.

 

Worst !@#$ing term going.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

Even a lot of "little draft"- like NDT Scouting- has surpassed McShay & Kiper in my mind in terms of quality of scouting/evaluation and draft prognostication.  So I don't take what either say with a tremendous amount of credence or credibility.

 

But I just thought I'd share that McShay said on Mike Greenberg's new show "Get Up" this morning that based on conversations he's had with league executives the expectation is that ultimately Beane gets a deal done with Gettleman to move up to pick #2.  His exact characterization:  "high probability."

 

EDIT:  20 minutes after this post "Get Up" added the McShay/Kiper interview from this morning to its podcast:

 

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/22943353

 

On McShay and Kiper's last Podcast around the 20:35 mark Todd says what he also said today:

 

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=22956078

 

It isn't the trading up part that's so troubling, though I personally think the cost is astronomical and prohibitive (I'd rather move up to 6 for Baker than 2 for Allen/Rosen and sacrifice half of the draft capital we've amassed; trading up to #2 will nearly wipe us clean).  It's that Allen is allegedly the target, someone who clearly and notoriously needs major refinement and might be a full two years from capably playing at this level, if it ever occurs.

 

One thing I will say is that there are a lot of people who know 1000 times more about football than any of us who believe Allen is the best QB in this draft.  So much so, that I think its HIGHLY possible he goes 1st overall to Cleveland at this point.  

 

I had concerns, but those concerns stem from what I read or people say as I didnt watch him play.  But highlights are legit and his combine and workouts have been the best of all the QB's.  I am warming up to him now and have him as my 3rd guy behind Baker and Darnold.  So I wont hate getting him anymore, but I do definitely prefer Baker as he is my top guy on the board.  

'

Personally, I think Allen is going to go #1...then it will be interesting to see if Bills go Darnold or Baker if they trade up to 2.  I said all year long I felt Baker was going to be a Bill next year, even when people kept telling me he was a 2nd round pick or lower.  But I am starting to think he is their target as they sure are meeting with him a lot.  And I would be stoked if we got him.  

 

Dont get me wrong, I would love to get a guy outside the top 5 too, but at this point, there seems to be a lot of energy around us trading to #2...so hate giving up so many picks, but will still be exciting no matter who we take.  The guy I like the least is Rosen though now...Bradford body and cutler-esque personality have cooled my interest.

[Boatdrinks]

50 minutes ago, mannc said:

Am I the only one at TSW who would like to see a lifetime ban on the term “draft capital”?

Better not watch/ listen to any of the NFL/ draft centric talk shows on sports network or radio then. These terms are just being parroted by fans here on TSW. It's the sports talk jargon of the day. 

[nucci]

55 minutes ago, mannc said:

Am I the only one at TSW who would like to see a lifetime ban on the term “draft capital”?

everyone speaks in cliches now. No one has an original thought anymore

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

speaking for myself. I'm going to trust they pick the right player, the one who fits their plan going forward. they have shown some promise in this short rebuilding  period that gives me the thought that they'll do what's best for what they feel will lead the team to succeed and contend. if I were to center my attention on one or even two players I believe they should pick, it could be setting ones self up for disappointment. 

 

many have been down this road, rebuilding, new regime but for myself, something feels different about it this go around. they certainly don't have me in the doubters corner, I'm anticipating good things to come.

 

trust the process

[HappyDays]

58 minutes ago, mannc said:

Am I the only one at TSW who would like to see a lifetime ban on the term “draft capital”?

 

We could call the new rule "capital punishment"