McShay Believes "High Probability" Buffalo Ultimately Trades to #2 (For Josh Allen)

[Thurman#1]

29 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I sure hope McShay is right.

 

WRT the bold...

 

You just recreated moving up for Losman and letting Rothlisberger slip through your hands, AGAIN. This is the same lower attitude towards QB that has kept the Bills irrelevant for decades.

 

The sole reason we've amassed said capital is so we CAN move up. That was the whole point this entire time. Gather these assets so we can use them to maneuver. Backing out now would be a huge failure.

 

And trading away "half" our picks doesnt wipe us clean. We have the capital to move up to #2 and still keep a full regular draft.

 

 

Dr. D., I wish it were true, but it's not.

 

The #2 pick is 2600 points on the old but still generally used value chart.

 

And all of our six picks in the first three rounds total 3071.

 

#12  1200

#22  780

#53  370

#56  340

#65  265

#96  116

 

That looks like a victory but if you look at deals where teams trade up into the top five, the team trading up generally has to give a MAJOR premium to the traders down, often as much as 50%. That's why people are often talking about having to maybe throw in next year's #1.

 

People are right that this is going to really hurt what we can do this year and maybe next and hopefully not but maybe even the year after. 

 

But we should do it anyway. Getting a guy you think will be a franchise QB is that important.

Edited April 4, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, BillsFan17 said:

If you are going to invest the draft picks needed to get into a position to take one of these guys, then make them the face of your franchise...

 

This isn't a, there is some questionable character concerns via the media about you, let's hangout and aire out both sides of the argument.

 

You meet with a player four times like they are doing with Mayfield and three or four times with Rosen, you are making sure character wise these guys are best suited for your franchise.

Just saying what I've heard scouts say. More meetings with a player isn't always an indication the team likes the player more than others. Character and health normally the reason for more meetings. 

[DCOrange]

3 minutes ago, billspro said:

I don't think the Bills have showed much interest in Allen if you look at the predraft visits. 

 

There's still plenty of time for that to change. Buffalo has only slotted people in for like 4-7 of their 30 private workouts so far.

Edited April 4, 2018 by DCOrange

[3rdand12]

2 minutes ago, Putin said:

For all we know Jets may want Mayfield, and maybe that’s who we want as well 

This is the trick. How far do Bills need to overdraft to get "their  Guy ". So all our conjecture about who to draft , or not ? Bills had better know who they want lol.
How they get there is the skill set

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, kdiggz said:

i'd rather they go to 5-7 and get Mayfield if that's the case.  if they get up to 2 and don't take Rosen then they are dumb.  way too much to give up for a project QB like Allen

Just get the right QB. I don't care what it costs as long as we hit on the QB. 10 years from now no one will care that we have multiple 1st round picks for a franchise QB. 

[billspro]

Just now, DCOrange said:

 

There's still plenty of time for that to change. Buffalo has only slotted people in for like 4-7 of their 30 private workouts so far.

 

Even if you look at the pro days, the Bills only met with Mayfield and Rosen before their pro day. 

[Midwest1981]

28 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I love how most GM's and Talent Evaluators have Josh Allen as the #1 or #2 QB in this Draft. Yet, people on this board think he's EJ Manuel.

 

I'll trust the one's doing this for a living. If they desire Allen - stop being a whiny brat and get behind the positives in his game. They ARE there.

Don't pretend that- especially in a zero-sum environment, sport, and profession- that NFL front-offices always get it right or are all competent and qualified for their positions.

 

They're not.

 

The Browns have gone 1-31 the last two years and has started 27 different QB's since their return to the league in 1999.

 

The Jets can't draft a QB to save their lives or their front-office's jobs, no matter how many picks they throw out (though Maccagnan is getting one more shot):  Geno Smith, Bryce Petty, Christian Hackenberg, etc.

 

Even our Bills were one failed Andy Dalton 4th and 12 conversion from a Playoff drought old enough to vote, smoke, or to start college, inexcusable in a salary cap era.

 

I remember four years ago when the majority of Bills' fans didn't like the signing of guard Chris Williams, convinced that the history that preceding him (six seasons found incredibly wanting for the former 1st-round pick) would continue here.

 

But you had some Bills' fans saying, "Why don't you trust the professionals?  Don't you think they know what they're doing?"

 

Sometimes they don't- oftentimes they don't.

 

Don't think that because Josh Allen has been elevated in many of their eyes that he's immune to busting.

Edited April 4, 2018 by Midwest1981

[TheElectricCompany]

14 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

 He comes here behind a not too entrenched starter in AJ, a questionable QB coach and a defensive minded HC? Not a good place for him.

 

You are underselling this team. 

He comes here and he has a stable head coach and an elite running back next to him. 

That's a pretty good situation. 

Edited April 4, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Dr. D., I wish it were true, but it's not.

 

The #2 pick is 2600 points on the old but still generally used value chart.

 

And all of our six picks in the first three rounds total 3071.

 

#12  1200

#22  780

#53  370

#56  340

#65  265

#96  116

 

That looks like a victory but if you look at deals where teams trade up into the top five, the team trading up generally has to give a MAJOR deal to the traders down, often as much as 50%. That's why people are often talking about having to maybe throw in next year's #1.

 

People are right that this is going to really hurt what we can do this year and maybe next and hopefully not but maybe even the year after. 

 

But we should do it anyway. Getting a guy you think will be a franchise QB is that important.

 

Even if that is what it takes, I'd happily do it. We dont touch any of next year's picks and have a ton of cap space coming.

 

Nothing is as important as landing a franchise QB. The Bills have never been in this good of a position before to do it, and they probably wont be again for a very long time.

 

Git'r'dun

[3rdand12]

1 minute ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Just get the right QB. I don't care what it costs as long as we hit on the QB. 10 years from now no one will care that we have multiple 1st round picks for a franchise QB. 

agreed

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, billspro said:

I don't think the Bills have showed much interest in Allen if you look at the predraft visits. 

 

 

We were at his pro day. And we haven't brought in all of the other big four yet either. We still have many visits left. If we still haven't brought him in as the draft nears, that might mean something.

[BillsFan17]

1 minute ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Just saying what I've heard scouts say. More meetings with a player isn't always an indication the team likes the player more than others. Character and health normally the reason for more meetings. 

I don't mean to say it as an all encompassing black and white statement. Clearly they could have guys in for some precautionary reasons.

 

I just don't see how some of those wouldn't be cleared up at the combine or private workouts they hold. You only have so many visits you are allowed...

 

If you have to meet with a kid four times to get a true gauge on his character, than he's probably not the guy for you.

 

Medicals are a different animal, but again don't think you need to meet four times for that.

[Jay_Fixit]

11 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I love how most GM's and Talent Evaluators have Josh Allen as the #1 or #2 QB in this Draft. Yet, people on this board think he's EJ Manuel.

 

I'll trust the one's doing this for a living. If they desire Allen - stop being a whiny brat and get behind the positives in his game. They ARE there.

Talent evaluators and GM’s are wrong all the time.

 

And they constantly think they can mold raw ability and talent into success. 

 

The hardest thing to correct from a QB standpoint is accuracy. And Allen is not accurate.

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, Jay_Fixit said:

Talent evaluators and GM’s are wrong all the time.

 

And they constantly think they can mold raw ability and talent into success. 

 

The hardest thing to correct from a QB standpoint is accuracy. And Allen is not accurate.

 

 

 

And yet not nearly as wrong as often as fans.

 

I'll trust the professionals to identify the guy they want at #2. I only care about getting to #2 so we can guarantee "our guy", whoever that is. McShay doesnt know the Bills like Allen anymore than anyone else. It's all a smokescreen. All we know for sure is we want to move up.

[billspro]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

We were at his pro day. And we haven't brought in all of the other big four yet either. We still have many visits left. If we still haven't brought him in as the draft nears, that might mean something.

 

I would be shocked if Beane and McDermott put their careers on the line for Allen. He is so raw and if he ever develops it will most likely take a couple of years. Two years without production in the NFL usually ends up in people being fired. If it was me, I would be looking at one of the more polished QB prospects. 

[Heitz]

33 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Old read from 6 months ago, but a good one. 

Talks about the differences between what the general public and NFL teams see in Allen...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2737050-matt-millers-scouting-notebook-josh-allen-the-nfl-and-the-huge-twitter-debate

 

BUT THE EYEBALL TEST!! 

 

Good little article, goes to show the pros might look for something other than what us amateurs do...

[CommonCents]

I caught 20 minutes of that show yesterday and it was horrible. Beadle looked pale and aging quickly. I used to love the Mike and Mike show. ESPN can't get anything right.

 

They should hire a couple of hooters girls to do the MNF broadcast so atleast we get some laughs and looks in.

Edited April 4, 2018 by Commonsense

[BuffaloBillyG]

12 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Our QB coach is well respected. When we talk about being raw we think of mechanics mostly, but never mentally picking up an offense. 

 

I don't know Allen's ability to pick up an offense. I watch him play and I don't see the smartest QB decisions, but we don't know what he is being asked to do. He may be asked to do more than QBs like Mayfield and Jackson. We don't know.

For his work with WRs. This is true. He's a solid WR coach. 

 

And to play devils advocate...you're right. We don't know what Allen was asked to do. He may have been asked to do far less in that case as well. Seems like a good kid though...and I do think he can do well in the right situation. I just don't feel like we have what he would need to thrive here.

[TheElectricCompany]

Just now, Heitz said:

 

BUT THE EYEBALL TEST!! 

 

I've watched a few Youtube highlight reels and read some public scouting reports on him. 

I totally know how to judge Josh Allen's potential as a pro. 

 

 

[KRT88]

#2! Yes

 

Allen - Nnnoooooooo!

 

baker Mayfield or Josh Rosen!