McShay Believes "High Probability" Buffalo Ultimately Trades to #2 (For Josh Allen)

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

58 minutes ago, DFT said:

I’d like to also nominate the term, “Arm Talent”, if we’re compiling a list...

Arm arrogance is a much better term anyway

[jrober38]

I think all the talk about Josh Allen going in the top 5 is just smoke.  The guy's game tape is horrendous and he's years away from seeing an NFL field, if it ever happens. 

 

Until he's actually picked there, I think the real targets teams want at the top of the draft are the superior QBs who no one seems to be talking about right now. For whatever reason, the worst of the "top" QBs is the one getting all the attention, while the guys who actually performed well on a college football field and have skills that will allow them to contribute on an NFL field immediately are being completely overshadowed by the 6'5, 240 pound "stud" whose key downfall is his horrendous accuracy. 

 

If we do draft Allen and trade the farm to get him, I'm going to need to find a new sport to watch for the next 2-3 years. 

Edited April 4, 2018 by jrober38

[Yeezus]

I swear if we trade our future away for a !@#$ing QB that isn't ready to play for the next 2-3 years 

 

and draft him over guys like Rosen & Mayfield, **** even Lamar Jackson...I'm throwing my TV out the window

 

Allen is going to get this entire coaching staff/front office/everyone but the owner fired in about 3-4 years when we all realize he is one of the biggest draft busts of the decade. 

[pennstate10]

I really wouldnt like a trade up to #2.  Such a trade would involve us giving up our entire first 3 rounds, or several early picks this year and next years #1.  Which would really, really, be a bad idea.

 

Fortunately, I think McShay is a buffoon, mostly wrong about everything.

 

And I do "trust the process"  I think Beane and McDermott have a plan, a vision, that has been missing.

 

I think this years QB class is greatly inflated by the sports talk echo chamber.  Every one of these QBs has serious flaws.  To mortgage the future for a surefire ProBowl level QB is a wise, bold move.  But to mortgage the future for a reach is a problem.  See III, RG.  Or Watkins, Sammy. 

 

Its been said that every draft has 10 or so surefire stars.  So let the Jets/Giants/Browns reach for QBs, fill up those early slots, and let a true surefire talent fall to us at #12.  Like the GA LB, or ND OT, or maybe even Minkah.  And if one of the "big 4" drops to 12, pick him up.  Or Rudolph in late first early 2nd.

 

As a PSU fan, I'm saying that Gesicki is a pretty good bet.  Not a blocker, but a receiving mismatch.  I think he goes late first, but I dont think he'd be a bad pick even at #22.  Barkley will likely go top 7, and I wouldnt trade up for him.  DeSean Hamilton is a very good possession receiver, worth a 5th round pick.  And Christian Campbell is a long corner, also worth a 5th.  The other PSU players are probably not worth better than a 5.

 

Really looking forward to see how this evolves.  I've got to say this has been the most interesting pre-draft season in a long time.

[BillsFan17]

Just now, pennstate10 said:

I really wouldnt like a trade up to #2.  Such a trade would involve us giving up our entire first 3 rounds, or several early picks this year and next years #1.  Which would really, really, be a bad idea.

 

Fortunately, I think McShay is a buffoon, mostly wrong about everything.

 

And I do "trust the process"  I think Beane and McDermott have a plan, a vision, that has been missing.

 

I think this years QB class is greatly inflated by the sports talk echo chamber.  Every one of these QBs has serious flaws.  To mortgage the future for a surefire ProBowl level QB is a wise, bold move.  But to mortgage the future for a reach is a problem.  See III, RG.  Or Watkins, Sammy. 

 

Its been said that every draft has 10 or so surefire stars.  So let the Jets/Giants/Browns reach for QBs, fill up those early slots, and let a true surefire talent fall to us at #12.  Like the GA LB, or ND OT, or maybe even Minkah.  And if one of the "big 4" drops to 12, pick him up.  Or Rudolph in late first early 2nd.

 

As a PSU fan, I'm saying that Gesicki is a pretty good bet.  Not a blocker, but a receiving mismatch.  I think he goes late first, but I dont think he'd be a bad pick even at #22.  Barkley will likely go top 7, and I wouldnt trade up for him.  DeSean Hamilton is a very good possession receiver, worth a 5th round pick.  And Christian Campbell is a long corner, also worth a 5th.  The other PSU players are probably not worth better than a 5.

 

Really looking forward to see how this evolves.  I've got to say this has been the most interesting pre-draft season in a long time.

Just so much of this is wrong. 

[Reed83HOF]

Trade up to #2 is probably realistic; I would be cautious on the QB name at this point, that could easily be smoke...

 

Mayfield has seen us soon to be 4 times and Rosen 3 times. Contact with Allen has been less than both of those thus far...

[ddaryl]

OK what terms would you like to use in regards who has the best hand of picks to move up in the draft.

 

Instead of Draft capital you would say _____________________.

 

To quickly describe a QB 's overall ability to pass the ball to multiple spots on the field with velocity and accuracy

 

Instead of Arm Talent you would say ______________________.

 

 

 

Curious to know what is a better way to go about these 2 cliches that would better describe the overall situation trying to be discussed

[3rdand12]

15 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

I think all the talk about Josh Allen going in the top 5 is just smoke.  The guy's game tape is horrendous and he's years away from seeing an NFL field, if it ever happens. 

 

Until he's actually picked there, I think the real targets teams want at the top of the draft are the superior QBs who no one seems to be talking about right now. For whatever reason, the worst of the "top" QBs is the one getting all the attention, while the guys who actually performed well on a college football field and have skills that will allow them to contribute on an NFL field immediately are being completely overshadowed by the 6'5, 240 pound "stud" whose key downfall is his horrendous accuracy. 

 

If we do draft Allen and trade the farm to get him, I'm going to need to find a new sport to watch for the next 2-3 years. 

and if he falls to 12-15 ? would you take him ?
Rosen and Darnold appear to be the guys who go one two. So if Bills want one of them they better make deal with Cleveland or more likely Giants.

after that it might be a wild ride to see where the next 3 go.

 

Would anyone here , not freak out if they went BPA at 12 or so and got the a QB that late or later ?
I bet half of us would.

But it is not un sound advice from a logical standpoint.

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, 3rdand12 said:

and if he falls to 12-15 ? would you take him ?
Rosen and Darnold appear to be the guys who go one two. So if Bills want one of them they better make deal with Cleveland or more likely Giants.

after that it might be a wild ride to see where the next 3 go.

 

Would anyone here , not freak out if they went BPA at 12 or so and got the a QB that late or later ?
I bet half of us would.

But it is not un sound advice from a logical standpoint.

 

I want nothing to do with Josh Allen. I think he's going to be a complete bust. 

 

If Mayfield falls to 6th, I'm moving up to get him. If I can't do that, I'm taking Jackson at 12. 

 

I want the guys who are good football players, not the guys who look good throwing a football in shorts against no defense. 

Edited April 4, 2018 by jrober38

[3rdand12]

12 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Trade up to #2 is probably realistic; I would be cautious on the QB name at this point, that could easily be smoke...

 

Mayfield has seen us soon to be 4 times and Rosen 3 times. Contact with Allen has been less than both of those thus far...

the visits can be  one of the more common smoke screens used.

imo

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

I want nothing to do with Josh Allen. I think he's going to be a complete bust. 

 

If Mayfield falls to 6th, I'm moving up to get him. If I can't do that, I'm taking Jackson at 12. 

i dig this thought process. good opinion

Mayfield and Jackson are likely on the Bills Big Board , and as players they feel good enough about to make that effort. 

 again 

 

imo

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

I can't see the Bills trading up to #2 for Allen. 

 

If theyre trading to #2, IMO it has to be for Rosen/Darnold. Maybe Mafield. 

 

Allen just seems like too big of a project to trade up to #2 for. 

 

But ivd bee weong before, so who knows. 

Couldn't agree more ! The amount of draft capital we lose to take a high risk, inaccurate developmental qb like Allen could be disastrous. I Would love Sam at 2 or Baker at 6. 

[starrymessenger]

What my guess is as to whats going on is seen through the prism of personal opinion so maybe not worth much.

Having said that I would not be surprised if Beane and Gettleman already have an understanding, not a deal but an agreement in principle. I think the Giants are interested in a QB, very possibly Darnold. If the Browns scoop their guy they will trade out and we will pretty much gut our draft to move up to the sweet spot. We don't know how any of these QB prospects are going to pan out but at the end of the day I see Rosen as having the best chance of developing into a franchise guy, he carries less risk in terms of what you can reasonably expect him to do on the field performance wise and he is pretty close to plug and play in the right offence. OTOH if the Giants like Allen ang he is gone I would'nt be surprised if the Bills moved up for Darnold. And why not. He's only 20 years old and absolutely a blue chip prospect.   

I would not move up to 7, 5 or 2 for Allen. Maybe I'm just chicken*#^+ risk averse. I do like him though and I'd be fine with him at 12 if the other front runners are off the board. He is not EJ or Jamarcus or the guy who busted in Baltimore. Sometimes even small sample sizes can be revealing. He was mediocre his first couple of series in the Senior Bowl game. He knew he could do better and agitated to go back in. He did and then led his team (against good competition) making some absolutely outstanding big league throws, demonstrating pin point accuracy, excellent placement and touch. If he had come back in and stunk it up that would have been a bad look. Instead he lit it up. I'm pretty sure that sort of thing makes a strong positive impression on pro talent evaluators.  They likely see lots of flaws and have lots of questions regarding all these guys. Every one of them needs work in order to transition successfully to the next level. So they probably focus as much on what the guy looks like when he's in a groove and is doing well. When Allen is on he looks pretty darn good.

[MrEpsYtown]

The Allen thing is a little weird. Could a be a smokescreen trying to the Browns to take him. Maybe it is really who they like. It is too hard to know. As long as they can get up in front of the Jets and get the guy they want, I will be happy. I still think they want Darnold or Rosen which was the early, pre smokescreen chatter and they fit the profile Beane has been talking about for awhile now. 

[LABILLBACKER]

6 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I want nothing to do with Josh Allen. I think he's going to be a complete bust. 

 

If Mayfield falls to 6th, I'm moving up to get him. If I can't do that, I'm taking Jackson at 12. 

 

I want the guys who are good football players, not the guys who look good throwing a football in shorts against no defense. 

You're 100% right jr....please tell me our scouts aren't enamored with him because he can chuck it 80 yards. This kid has huge accuracy issues and in that Buffalo wind his ball could go anywhere. Right now I want Darnold or Mayfield.  Or stay put and see if Rudolph drops?

[maryland-bills-fan]

McShay?   What the dickens does he know.  Ask Bergman.

 

[Reed83HOF]

12 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

the visits can be  one of the more common smoke screens used.

imo

Which is true, we didn't even have Tre in last year IIRC...

[Mat68]

31 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

OK what terms would you like to use in regards who has the best hand of picks to move up in the draft.

 

Instead of Draft capital you would say ____PICKS_________________.

 

To quickly describe a QB 's overall ability to pass the ball to multiple spots on the field with velocity and accuracy

 

Instead of Arm Talent you would say ______ARM________________.

 

 

 

Curious to know what is a better way to go about these 2 cliches that would better describe the overall situation trying to be discussed

Buffalo has the draft picks to pull off a trade for Allen who has the best arm in this draft, and maybe in 20 years.  Pretty much the way people have talked for the last 30 years.

Edited April 4, 2018 by Mat68

[Art in PNS]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

Am I the only one at TSW who would like to see a lifetime ban on the term “draft capital”?

I propose a ban on using the term FRANCHISE QURTERBACK and or rookie / draft choice in the same sentence.

 

Everyone agrees you would like to have one but few agree on what the animal looks like until he's played a few years and the whole hindsight is 20/20 argument kicks in. At which time he is no longer a rookie or draft choice.

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

i'm 200% more on board with only trading up to 5 or 6 and nabbing Mayfield. but if the scenario above ultimately happens i'll......... "trust the process"

 

If it's for Allen, me too... begrudgingly.

 

I still don't think it'll be for Allen, though.  Just way too much smoke connecting us to him.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I love how most GM's and Talent Evaluators have Josh Allen as the #1 or #2 QB in this Draft. Yet, people on this board think he's EJ Manuel.

 

I'll trust the one's doing this for a living. If they desire Allen - stop being a whiny brat and get behind the positives in his game. They ARE there.

 

Urm, how do you know how "most GMs and talent evaluators" who are doing this for a living have Allen as #1 or #2?

 

What we know is that media draft pundits like McShay and Kiper have him high, right?