Dr. Who Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, McD said: Who is THE guy? Is there one, or are we just going to be fixated at a position because we just HAVE to take one? If there's a GUARANTEE that any one of those QB's are the savior, a generational type player, then cool... I'm in. But, I've not read ANYTHING that says this QB class is that talented. Starters yes... a few Pro Bowls... perhaps. But worthy of 3 #1's+? I'm not sold. Fine, you can wait another 25 years and hope when the perfect qb appears you have the first overall pick, because folks don't trade that player away. Rare to have a draft with multiple potential franchise qbs and we set ourselves up for it by acquiring draft capital.
KOKBILLS Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 I'm open to a conversation about trading down from #22 IF the Bills don't use it to move up for a QB... #12 is off limits though...That's QB, QB, QB, or used to move up to get a QB... 1
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 4, 2018 Author Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Mojo44 said: I agree with this. Besides, the OP is wrong in asserting that Taylor helped out the offense of line with his scrambling. Just the opposite is true. The offense of line actually played pretty fair during 2017. The problem was Taylor’s tendency to panic under pressure and run into a sack.Again, embedded in the initial post is the ridiculous lingering narrative that Taylor was anything but horrible. Let's look at the stats. McCoy had 287 attempts and Taylor had 84. So of those two, Taylor had 22% of the running plays. For yardage Taylor had 27% of the running yardage.....................Does that sound like a good recipe for you? No. Player Age Pos G GS Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% YScm RRTD Fmb 25 LeSean McCoy* 29 RB 16 16 287 1138 6 48 4.0 71.1 17.9 77 59 448 7.6 2 39 3.7 28.0 76.6% 1586 8 3 5 Tyrod Taylor 28 QB 15 14 84 427 4 32 5.1 28.5 5.6 427 4 4 Edited April 4, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan
McD Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Dr. Who said: Fine, you can wait another 25 years and hope when the perfect qb appears you have the first overall pick, because folks don't trade that player away. Rare to have a draft with multiple potential franchise qbs and we set ourselves up for it by acquiring draft capital. 25 years, lol... ok. Hell, you all are SO dead set on us sucking next year with AJ that we're probably gonna be in prime position to draft in the top 10 next year. At least if we did that we might actually have an OL and WR's for him because we got them all this year.
What a Tuel Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, maryland-bills-fan said: Let's look at the stats. McCoy had 287 attempts and Taylor had 84. So of those two, Taylor had 22% of the running plays. For yardage Taylor had 25% of the running yardage.....................Does that sound like a good recipe for you? No. Player Age Pos G GS Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% YScm RRTD Fmb 25 LeSean McCoy* 29 RB 16 16 287 1138 6 48 4.0 71.1 17.9 77 59 448 7.6 2 39 3.7 28.0 76.6% 1586 8 3 5 Tyrod Taylor 28 QB 15 14 84 427 4 32 5.1 28.5 5.6 427 4 4 Tyrod ran because he would not throw the ball. He often had tons of time.
BillsFanForever19 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said: I am amused by all the experts who know about the "can't miss" rookie QB I am amused by all the people in the "don't trade up" crowd needing to start a thread to tell us it will cost a lot. We know. 1
ChanOverChin Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 This year is the Bills' BEST chance to draft a true franchise QB, something they haven't had for 17+ years. The bottom line is you win in the NFL with a franchise QB. There have been a few exceptions, but very few indeed. The Bills have the draft ammo this year and if the timing and the deal is right it would be the best move for the Bills to trade up to take the likes of Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield. Get the franchise QB this year. The Bills are expected to have $100M+ in cap space next year. They can fill in their holes at LB, DL, WR at that point. But you can bet your sweet patootie that they're not going to be able to sign a vet franchise QB. 3
CamboBill Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said: I am amused by all the experts who know about the "can't miss" rookie QB, who can perform miracles without an offensive line, wide receivers or linebackers on defense. ..... Please remember that or offensive line was bailed out by Taylor's feet and that we have aging ,declining guards, that we lost our starting center and traded away a rotational starting tackle. Three new faces are needed there................ We have one starting linebacker and need two more. Somebody from the first two rounds would do..................... Our wide receivers scare nobody, but Mr. Miracle Quarterback is going to have those guys free down the sidelines for a 50yard gain and shaking loose from coverage over the middle and getting an average 15 yard YAC on every play. Don't think so. At least one pick in the first 3 rounds is needed............Oh, did you forget that we lost some people as FA who had "DB" as their position? Maybe one more pick in the 1st three rounds is needed here...........................................BUT lets ignore all that and trade the first two rounds from this year and next year's first for a 50:50 shot. Yea, right. With all these needs (six plus a QB = 7) I can not see going in the direction of trading away the draft picks necessary to field a competitive team in order to get a possible star to have wet dreams about. The games are won in the "trenches". A cute rookie QB with a broken leg is not good for anything. I say we should do the following. Stay at #12 in case the QB that the Bills could live with is available. If not, they trade down and get your Bart Starr, Jim Kelly or Dan Marion with a later pick. (with arm twisting, moving up 3-4 spots and losing next year's 2nd rounder would be okay) Here is what we could get with a trade-down from the #12 pick. down to gets us this overall pick ============================== #14............100th player (4th round) #16.............78th player (3rd round) #18............60th player (2nd round) #20............55th player #22.............48th player #24.............44th player #26.............40th player #28.............36th player #30.............32nd player #32...............30.5th player (1st round) . . From Walter Football, here is a list of the players in that 30-55 range that we get for "free" by trading down. (I don't agree that all these guys will be available this low, but it gives you the idea). 30. Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame. Previously: 30 Avg. 23.8 per 30 31. Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas-San Antonio. Previously: 31 Avg. 31.8 per 10 32. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma. Previously: 32 Avg. 42.1 per 17 33. Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M. Previously: 33 Avg. 25.2 per 30 34. Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia. Previously: 34 Avg. 32.4 per 30 35. Tim Settle, DT, Virginia Tech. Previously: 35 Avg. 34.6 per 10 36. James Daniels, C, Iowa. Previously: 36 Avg. 36 per 9 37. Terrell Edmunds, S, Virginia Tech. Previously: 37 Avg. 37 per 24 38. Justin Reid, S, Stanford. Previously: 38 Avg. 32.8 per 19 39. Will Hernandez, G, UTEP. Previously: 39 Avg. 38.9 per 20 40. Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA. Previously: 40 Avg. 37.4 per 10 41. Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State. Previously: 41 Avg. 48.8 per 9 42. D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland. Previously: NR Avg. 0 per 0 43. Harold Landry, DE, Boston College. Previously: 43 Avg. 32.2 per 30 44. JC Jackson, CB, Maryland. Previously: 44 Avg. 32.4 per 11 45. Dorance Armstrong Jr., DE, Kansas. Previously: 45 Avg. 28.1 per 30 46. Isaiah Wynn, OT, Georgia. Previously: 46 Avg. 46 per 14 47. Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn. Previously: 47 Avg. 46.9 per 17 48. Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State. Previously: 48 Avg. 45.6 per 30 49. Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama. Previously: 49 Avg. 29.6 per 30 50. Jordan Whitehead, S, Pittsburgh. Previously: 50 Avg. 46.1 per 30 51. R.J. McIntosh, DT, Miami. Previously: 51 Avg. 54.9 per 9 52. Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma. Previously: 52 Avg. 52 per 9 53. Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado. Previously: 53 Avg. 53 per 9 54. Ronald Jones II, RB, USC. Previously: 54 Avg. 54 per 9 55. Duke Ejiofor, DE, Wake Forest. http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftbigboard#ixzz5BhirZysC A good center, a good linebacker, a good WR or a good RB. You get an extra solid player, probably a starter, for your effort. If the best QB shots are gone at #12, build a strong team with those 7 picks and take a QB out of the top 15. I agree that QBs on this board are being extremely overhyped and I hope we don't get silly like in trading up with Giants. That said, given that we gave up Cody Gn to move up from 12, I don't see us trading back town. either we will draft a QB that we like assuming he falls to us ... or we get BPA.
LABILLBACKER Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 2 hours ago, GunnerBill said: If you get to a situation where the Browns go QB at #1, the Giants do at #2, the Jets do at #3.... the Browns refuse to trade out of #4 and then Broncos go QB at #5 I would happily trade back from #12. I just don't think there is any chance that the scenario plays out. Actually I think this scenario might play out. If the top 3 picks are Darnold, Rosen & Allen, all of a sudden the Broncos might panic and take Mayfield? You do not trade up for Lamar, so that leaves Rudolph at 12 or later. I honestly feel if we don't get a fair deal for #2, we're staying put or even might trade down a little. It's up to Gettleman. 1
Dr. Who Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, McD said: 25 years, lol... ok. Hell, you all are SO dead set on us sucking next year with AJ that we're probably gonna be in prime position to draft in the top 10 next year. At least if we did that we might actually have an OL and WR's for him because we got them all this year. Alright, let me rephrase. The last draft folks talk about as being rich with multiple qbs (and of course only some worked out) was 1983. That's 35 years ago. It is rare to have a draft with 4 or more qbs that might be considered for the first round. A normal draft has 1 or 2 or actually zero. We have the draft capital this year, not next year, etc.
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 4, 2018 Author Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said: You're mistaken right from your first sentence. People don't think that one of the new QBs can perform miracles. And we're aware that trading away all those picks will hurt the team's roster, handicapping us for several years. But you've spent an awful lot of work here missing the point. By a wide margin. We're aware that we're going to be pretty bad next year after they trade up. (And the news makes it very obvious that if there's any way to do that, Beane will. He's desperately trying to do that.) The point is that Beane's and McDermott's focus is not on next year. It's on the long term ability to put together a team that can consistently be in position to compete for championships. And a franchise QB will put us in that position. Not next year. Hell, the chances are very good that whatever high-level guy we pick after the tradeup is going to sit next year and learn from McCarron. Whereas filling a bunch of holes but still having no franchise QB will very much NOT put us in that position. There's still one situation where trade-backs become very possible. If we can't get into the top five or six and the top four QBs are gone ... and if they don't like anyone else as much as some on these boards do ... then yeah, we might well see them trading back. Trading this year's #22 for a 1st next year and some change. This year's #56 for a 2nd next year and some change. And so on. Because if they don't get someone this year that they really like at QB, expect them to try to put themselves in the same situation next year putting together a big ole cache of picks so that we can try to trade up next year. Yeah, those picks could fill some holes. That won't begin to do for the long term prospects of this team what getting a franchise QB here would. I still see 7 holes in the roster including a rookie QB. If we trade up to the top 5 or 6, we are talking about both 1st and 2nd round picks and next year's 1st round. That will likely give the 3rd or 4th QB with a 50% bust rate. We would then (by the end of the 2018 draft) have one 2nd round and three 3rd round picks to fix the remaining 6 holes in the roster. Opps, we would probably have an injury or FA and it might be 8 holes in the roster. Say then it takes 2 more years to catch up. It is now 2021 and the team is "rebuilt" and competitive. (well, with the QB bust rate it is a 50% chance at best). Sorry, but is that a smart place to be? 1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said: "Brandon is trying like hell to get up and get a quarterback," the NFL GM told La Canfora. 'I'm convinced he'll trade up twice more if he has to. It reminds me of (Eagles general manager) Howie (Roseman) a few years ago (when he was moving up to land Carson Wentz).'" http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2018/04/buffalo_bills_gm_brandon_beane_reportedly_trying_like_hell_to_trade_up_for_qb.html It's probably a good deal higher than even. Though maybe the Giants and Browns simply don't want to make the trades. If they weren't trading up, they'd have traded Glenn not for a move up but for another draft pick. Get used to it. This is likely to happen. Practically every draft-related move they've made since Beane got here has been pointed at this. The why did they trade their top WR? Edited April 4, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan
Thurman#1 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said: I still see 7 holes in the roster including a rookie QB. If we trade up to the top 5 or 6, we are talking about both 1st and 2nd round picks and next year's 1st round. That will likely give the 3rd or 4th QB with a 50% bust rate. We would then (by the end of the 2018 draft) have one 2nd round and three 3rd round picks to fix the remaining 6 holes in the roster. Opps, we would probably have an injury or FA and it might be 8 holes in the roster. Say then it takes 2 more years to catch up. It is now 2021 and the team is "rebuilt" and competitive. (well, with the QB bust rate it is a 50% chance at best). Sorry, but is that a smart place to be? Of all the available options ... YES ... the absolute smartest when your goal is to be consistently competitive for a championship. Edited April 4, 2018 by Thurman#1
GunnerBill Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: Actually I think this scenario might play out. If the top 3 picks are Darnold, Rosen & Allen, all of a sudden the Broncos might panic and take Mayfield? You do not trade up for Lamar, so that leaves Rudolph at 12 or later. I honestly feel if we don't get a fair deal for #2, we're staying put or even might trade down a little. It's up to Gettleman. I really don't think it plays out like that.
Tyrod's friend Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 2 hours ago, kdiggz said: they rebuild the trenches then someone leaves so next year they have to rebuild something else and then it never ends. there's always going to be holes on a team so i guess we just never get a QB right? man, there are some really bad posts lately I've read something like this regularly so this response isn't t Kdiggz but general. Why is it that only other position players "leave next year" but QBs never do? In the past it's been because the FO has failed to assess roster talent properly - which reflected an organization that culturally would have valued a strong safety over a DT in the top 5, or a CB over a great OT at 12. If you cannot trust the FO to make decisions on contracts and roster building and retaining, then moving up or even drafting a QB at 12 is a completely lost cause. OTOH, drafting Roquan Smith doesn't mean losing him in four years. Can Roquan Smith change your team? Well, I'd say that Clay Matthews has been pretty important in Green Bay. Ray Smith changed the world in Baltimore. Cheers, A
CamboBill Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Dr. Who said: Alright, let me rephrase. The last draft folks talk about as being rich with multiple qbs (and of course only some worked out) was 1983. That's 35 years ago. It is rare to have a draft with 4 or more qbs that might be considered for the first round. A normal draft has 1 or 2 or actually zero. We have the draft capital this year, not next year, etc. The difference in this year's draft is that there is no clear cut #1 choice. you can take the top 5 and pull a name of out of a hat and make an argument for why should be #1. You do NOT give the farm away in a trade trade up in this scenario. This is a good QB draft in that it is DEEP ... but it is NOT top heavy. There are 5 QB prospects that might have big futures and two or three others that might have a shot at being decent starters some day. There is nobody to trade up for ... There is no Wentz or Goff in this draft. I think we might need to move into the top 8, but there is no need to overpay for #2. This is fools Gold. 2
hondo in seattle Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said: I am amused by all the experts who know about the "can't miss" rookie QB, who can perform miracles without an offensive line, wide receivers or linebackers on defense. ..... Please remember that or offensive line was bailed out by Taylor's feet and that we have aging ,declining guards, that we lost our starting center and traded away a rotational starting tackle. Three new faces are needed there................ We have one starting linebacker and need two more. Somebody from the first two rounds would do..................... Our wide receivers scare nobody, but Mr. Miracle Quarterback is going to have those guys free down the sidelines for a 50yard gain and shaking loose from coverage over the middle and getting an average 15 yard YAC on every play. Don't think so. At least one pick in the first 3 rounds is needed............Oh, did you forget that we lost some people as FA who had "DB" as their position? Maybe one more pick in the 1st three rounds is needed here...........................................BUT lets ignore all that and trade the first two rounds from this year and next year's first for a 50:50 shot. Yea, right. With all these needs (six plus a QB = 7) I can not see going in the direction of trading away the draft picks necessary to field a competitive team in order to get a possible star to have wet dreams about. The games are won in the "trenches". A cute rookie QB with a broken leg is not good for anything. I say we should do the following. Stay at #12 in case the QB that the Bills could live with is available. If not, they trade down and get your Bart Starr, Jim Kelly or Dan Marion with a later pick. (with arm twisting, moving up 3-4 spots and losing next year's 2nd rounder would be okay) Here is what we could get with a trade-down from the #12 pick. down to gets us this overall pick ============================== #14............100th player (4th round) #16.............78th player (3rd round) #18............60th player (2nd round) #20............55th player #22.............48th player #24.............44th player #26.............40th player #28.............36th player #30.............32nd player #32...............30.5th player (1st round) . . From Walter Football, here is a list of the players in that 30-55 range that we get for "free" by trading down. (I don't agree that all these guys will be available this low, but it gives you the idea). 30. Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame. Previously: 30 Avg. 23.8 per 30 31. Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas-San Antonio. Previously: 31 Avg. 31.8 per 10 32. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma. Previously: 32 Avg. 42.1 per 17 33. Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M. Previously: 33 Avg. 25.2 per 30 34. Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia. Previously: 34 Avg. 32.4 per 30 35. Tim Settle, DT, Virginia Tech. Previously: 35 Avg. 34.6 per 10 36. James Daniels, C, Iowa. Previously: 36 Avg. 36 per 9 37. Terrell Edmunds, S, Virginia Tech. Previously: 37 Avg. 37 per 24 38. Justin Reid, S, Stanford. Previously: 38 Avg. 32.8 per 19 39. Will Hernandez, G, UTEP. Previously: 39 Avg. 38.9 per 20 40. Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA. Previously: 40 Avg. 37.4 per 10 41. Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State. Previously: 41 Avg. 48.8 per 9 42. D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland. Previously: NR Avg. 0 per 0 43. Harold Landry, DE, Boston College. Previously: 43 Avg. 32.2 per 30 44. JC Jackson, CB, Maryland. Previously: 44 Avg. 32.4 per 11 45. Dorance Armstrong Jr., DE, Kansas. Previously: 45 Avg. 28.1 per 30 46. Isaiah Wynn, OT, Georgia. Previously: 46 Avg. 46 per 14 47. Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn. Previously: 47 Avg. 46.9 per 17 48. Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State. Previously: 48 Avg. 45.6 per 30 49. Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama. Previously: 49 Avg. 29.6 per 30 50. Jordan Whitehead, S, Pittsburgh. Previously: 50 Avg. 46.1 per 30 51. R.J. McIntosh, DT, Miami. Previously: 51 Avg. 54.9 per 9 52. Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma. Previously: 52 Avg. 52 per 9 53. Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado. Previously: 53 Avg. 53 per 9 54. Ronald Jones II, RB, USC. Previously: 54 Avg. 54 per 9 55. Duke Ejiofor, DE, Wake Forest. http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftbigboard#ixzz5BhirZysC A good center, a good linebacker, a good WR or a good RB. You get an extra solid player, probably a starter, for your effort. If the best QB shots are gone at #12, build a strong team with those 7 picks and take a QB out of the top 15. MBF, you must be a born contrarian. Can't just go with the flow, can you? It's actually kind of refreshing to see a completely different take on the draft. Something other than the Holy Quest for the Savior QB. Edited April 4, 2018 by hondo in seattle
BADOLBILZ Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 1) It's fun to imagine filling the roster spots with 10-12 draft picks. But "the process" is very much about having mature, mentally tough players and then integrating in a manageable amount of young players. Can't afford to have multiple guys like Zay Jones out there that you HAVE to play because you gifted them jobs at great cost to the team. 2) The Bills activity in FA seems to indicate that they aren't planning on gifting starting jobs to a big class of rookies. 3) Even if they don't trade up beyond #12 they may trade up at other spots to get specific fits like they did in the 2017 draft. 4) Additionally that's a ton of players you have to start making contract decisions on simultaneously after year 3. If they fail at getting a QB early and trade back I hope they get future picks so the next GM/HC can get a crack at the 2021 QB class. Edited April 4, 2018 by BADOLBILZ 2
What a Tuel Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said: I still see 7 holes in the roster including a rookie QB. If we trade up to the top 5 or 6, we are talking about both 1st and 2nd round picks and next year's 1st round. That will likely give the 3rd or 4th QB with a 50% bust rate. We would then (by the end of the 2018 draft) have one 2nd round and three 3rd round picks to fix the remaining 6 holes in the roster. Opps, we would probably have an injury or FA and it might be 8 holes in the roster. Say then it takes 2 more years to catch up. It is now 2021 and the team is "rebuilt" and competitive. (well, with the QB bust rate it is a 50% chance at best). Sorry, but is that a smart place to be? With your logic right now we have 3 firsts, 3 seconds, 3 thirds to fill your 7 (potentially 8 holes) including the most important position QB. What is that an 89% hit rate for starting players? You conveniently leave the hit rate out of it for the other positions. I don't know why you are so vehemently against using 4 of those 9 picks on a QB and 5 on filling out the roster. Thats 3 freaking extra draft picks to land a QB. After 18 years of "filling out the roster" you should know this.
Dr. Who Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, CamboBill said: The difference in this year's draft is that there is no clear cut #1 choice. you can take the top 5 and pull a name of out of a hat and make an argument for why should be #1. You do NOT give the farm away in a trade trade up in this scenario. This is a good QB draft in that it is DEEP ... but it is NOT top heavy. There are 5 QB prospects that might have big futures and two or three others that might have a shot at being decent starters some day. There is nobody to trade up for ... There is no Wentz or Goff in this draft. I think we might need to move into the top 8, but there is no need to overpay for #2. This is fools Gold. You have five grouped together, but OBD might have separation where one or two are strongly preferred. If they have five grouped roughly in the same area, obviously, one does not need to trade up to 2.
NewEra Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 The only way I’d trade out of 12 is if the top 5 QBs are gone along with Edmunds and Roquan. I don’t think Jackson is making it to 22. If we don’t draft one of the top 5 QBs, I’d rather not draft one In the first 2 rounds. If lauletta or Rudolph (puke) fall to rd 3, grab one then. 1
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