Chuck Wagon Posted April 3, 2018 Posted April 3, 2018 Looking back, no, there are no guarantees there's anyone good after the big 4 (or even in the big 4). Going back, arguably the best QB drafted after the 1st round: 15 - Brett Hundley / Trevor Siemian 14 - Carr / Garoppolo 13 - Mike Glennon 12 - Wilson / Cousins / Foles 11 - Dalton / Kaepernick / Tyrod 10 - Colt McCoy / Joe Webb '09 - Curtis Painter '08 - Chad Henne '07 - Trent Edwards / Drew Stanton So no, there's not necessarily great players waiting to be picked in the later rounds. Most years, you are doing well to find a legitimate backup QB after the 1st round, but more often than not you simply light the pick on fire. 2 2
thebandit27 Posted April 3, 2018 Posted April 3, 2018 That's a fair bet...however, there's absolutely no denying that every team has a MUCH better chance at finding a franchise QB in the early portion of round 1 than at any other point. We've gone through the exercise before on this board, and you can quibble over who belongs on the "franchise" list, but just take a look at the data. If we assume that a "franchise" QB is a guy that's good enough to help a team win the Super Bowl (this does not necessarily mean that he's the centerpiece of the team or even the offense), then you come up with a list that looks a lot like: Brady, Tannehill, Big Ben, Flacco, Dalton, Bortles, Luck, Carr, Rivers, Wilson, Goff, Rodgers, Cousins, Stafford, Newton, Ryan, Brees, Manning, Wentz, Smith, Prescott. Obviously, I left off some guys that can be argued in like Mariota, Watson, Keenum, Bradford, Garoppolo, and Winston and kept in some borderline guys like Tannehill, Dalton, Bortles and Dak, but give or take, you're looking at between 18 and 22 "franchise" guys across the league. If we go with my list (or insert your own; the data set won't be impacted much), here's the breakdown: 1st round - 14 2nd round - 3 3rd round - 1 4th round - 2 6th round - 1 If you further break down the 1st round guys, you find where the real money gets made: Top 4 - 10 Pick 5-end of round 1 - 4 Basically, half of the franchise QBs in the NFL are picked in the top 4 draft selections overall. If you're going to gamble, it's a much better bet to try to get a guy in the top 5 than it is to gamble that one of the rarities drops to you later. 2
Do The Reich Thing Posted April 3, 2018 Posted April 3, 2018 59 minutes ago, KGun12TD said: So, who is it? See the problem there? Falk
fansince88 Posted April 3, 2018 Posted April 3, 2018 1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said: Who are the top 4? If Allen is in the top 4, then I agree there will be a good QB outside of the top 4. His name is Lamar Jackson. I don't think Allen belongs in the top 4. Or the top 5... because I'd prefer Rudolph over Allen, too. Here is the problem. You say LJ will be good. Others say he will be garbage. That is the same struggle every team will have.
Elite Poster Posted April 3, 2018 Posted April 3, 2018 (edited) Guys do not slip these days precisely because of the guys you named. Let's talk about this decade please. Rodgers was the 2nd QB taken btw, just to show how much the league has changed. There are statistically, the last ten years, less QBs that amount to anything outside of 1 or 2 guys if we want some late round scrub. Threads like these keep popping up and posters like myself keep repeating the same point. If this were 2005 or even 2011 I would agree with you. Unfortunately, it is 2018. Once again, the roulette ball will fall on 00 once in a while, but it's smarter to put all your money on black or red. Edited April 3, 2018 by Elite Poster
longtimebillsfan Posted April 3, 2018 Posted April 3, 2018 Oh good, another quarterback thread! We should move up and draft : Allen, no Rosen, no Darnold, no Mayfield. We should not move up. Just take the best qb we can at 12. No a qb is too important, we should pay what ever we need to get one of the top 4. We should draft Lamar Jackson. No he is just like TT. We should build our team with our store of draft picks. The qb class is awesome! This qb class stinks! That about covers it. Why do we keep doing this??? 1
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted April 3, 2018 Posted April 3, 2018 2 hours ago, gonzo1105 said: I constantly think this too. I think watch, everyone is gonna get caught up in these 4 guys and a guy like Lauletta or Mike White are gonna end up being the best Quarterback's from this class. Would I bet on it? No, but it has definitely crossed my mind that someone else besides the 6 guys constantly mentioned will end up being the best one. could EASILY have an equal number of eventual stars from Upper Tier vs Mid-Lower Tier........no warranties, money back guarantees or refund of expended draft capital expressed or implied.....roll 'em............
SouthNYfan Posted April 3, 2018 Posted April 3, 2018 22 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said: Oh good, another quarterback thread! We should move up and draft : Allen, no Rosen, no Darnold, no Mayfield. We should not move up. Just take the best qb we can at 12. No a qb is too important, we should pay what ever we need to get one of the top 4. We should draft Lamar Jackson. No he is just like TT. We should build our team with our store of draft picks. The qb class is awesome! This qb class stinks! That about covers it. Why do we keep doing this??? You left out anything regarding Rudolph/Lauletta/white.
longtimebillsfan Posted April 3, 2018 Posted April 3, 2018 1 hour ago, SouthNYfan said: You left out anything regarding Rudolph/Lauletta/white. My bad. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, gonzo1105 said: I constantly think this too. I think watch, everyone is gonna get caught up in these 4 guys and a guy like Lauletta or Mike White are gonna end up being the best Quarterback's from this class. Would I bet on it? No, but it has definitely crossed my mind that someone else besides the 6 guys constantly mentioned will end up being the best one. It happens pretty consistently. The probability of getting a QB who can play in the NFL - not a top-3 in the league, can carry the team, Magical Franchise Man, just a capable NFL QB - is overall highest at the very top of the draft. But the odds that the 4 best QB in the draft will be chosen 1-2-3-4 are low indeed. It’s far more typical to have the most successful QB be drafted 1-2-8-3 or 5-2-1-4 or something like that (talking about QB drafted, not overall draft position) Edited April 4, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan 1
billspro Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 I think it will be Mike White. I still want one of the big names though.
TC in St. Louis Posted April 4, 2018 Author Posted April 4, 2018 2 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said: Oh good, another quarterback thread! We should move up and draft : Allen, no Rosen, no Darnold, no Mayfield. We should not move up. Just take the best qb we can at 12. No a qb is too important, we should pay what ever we need to get one of the top 4. We should draft Lamar Jackson. No he is just like TT. We should build our team with our store of draft picks. The qb class is awesome! This qb class stinks! That about covers it. Why do we keep doing this??? Because it's taking too long to get to the draft, and some of us like to speculate. Just for fun. Why so serious? Jeez. Go away and come back on the 26th if it's that annoying.
longtimebillsfan Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 1 hour ago, TC in St. Louis said: Because it's taking too long to get to the draft, and some of us like to speculate. Just for fun. Why so serious? Jeez. Go away and come back on the 26th if it's that annoying. Just having a little fun myself. You have to admit these threads do get repetitive. Let's start a new thread " Why Mike white will be the #1 pick."
TigerJ Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 There may be one, or a very few QBs in this draft outside the top 4 who develop into elite, franchise type guys. It is also highly likely that more than one of the top four busts. In the entire draft, it's likely that only a handful of QBs develop into solid starters who have long careers. 1
Turk71 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 Kyle Lauletta has looked impressive when I have seen him, would not be surprised if he became a good pro.
BadLandsMeanie Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 5 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said: Oh good, another quarterback thread! We should move up and draft : Allen, no Rosen, no Darnold, no Mayfield. We should not move up. Just take the best qb we can at 12. No a qb is too important, we should pay what ever we need to get one of the top 4. We should draft Lamar Jackson. No he is just like TT. We should build our team with our store of draft picks. The qb class is awesome! This qb class stinks! That about covers it. Why do we keep doing this??? For me it is because I can't stop.
Bing Bong Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 I agree but I'd take Bart starr off that list lol
longtimebillsfan Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 51 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said: For me it is because I can't stop. I know, I keep reading as well. I must go to the stadium wall 20 times a day minimum.
Eric Moulds on my A** Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 8 hours ago, mead107 said: Riley Ferguson baby Again and again and again and again and again and again and agAhHhHH! Turdy Fergy... Sweet. Moving on. If I am reading that the Bills Brass are doing everything in their power to move up for a QB, then the opposite result will likely be the case and we're staying put. Maybe even moving back. Smokescreen Season... if it can't be taken with a grain of salt, then our hearts deserve breaking when "plans" fall apart. Also I don't think McBeanes longevity here is contingent on finding our franchise guy this year and this year alone. That playoff birth and unloading drama with heavy $$$ contracts buys them a lot of time. Like a Jeff Fisher kinda leash in my eyes. Edited April 4, 2018 by Eric Moulds on my A**
Drunken Pygmy Goat Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 Stating an opinion as fact... Sure, that happens, but it's not guaranteed to happen every year, and there may not be a star QB outside the "top 4" this year. I wouldn't bet against it, or for it. And if I'm Beane, I wouldn't rely on it... 14 hours ago, xRUSHx said: Sadly this does not matter to the Bills. One of the lower round QBs will have to sit a few years behind a franchise QB to become good. It never works for the Bills with a later round QB because we have no franchise QB for him to sit behind. That luxury is for a team that has a proven franchise starter not a backup starter from some other team like the Bills always use.. It matters to all teams. Russell Wilson didn't sit. His coach gave him a chance in camp, and he felt it was best to go with Wilson over Matt Flynn...far from a franchise QB (but was paid like one IIRC).
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