TheElectricCompany Posted April 3, 2018 Posted April 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, racketmaster said: There is no question that Allen is a better athlete and has a stronger arm. It's like saying the 4.5 guy is the same as the 4.3 player. They are both fast but there is still a difference and I don't think posters understand how rare the combination of traits Allen has. He is a very unique package and it is not hard to see why NFL coaches would want to take a chance on a special talent. I'm not certain that accuracy can be further developed, but the intrigue of an accurate Josh Allen is going to be too much for any team to pass up. The Bills at 12 are his floor. 1
racketmaster Posted April 3, 2018 Posted April 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Shaw66 said: People fall inlove with the physical attributes. There's no convincing them otherwise, until they fail. The Raiders talked themselves out of every possible concern they might have had about Jamarcus Russell. I have a lot of confidence that McBeane are completely on top of this. If they take Allen it'll be because they know several things we don't know. I put some stock in the Wonderlic scores, and it's interesting that Allen had the highest of the QBs. Of course, Fitz was off the charts on the Wonderlic and he still threw every critical INT he could. Remember, Russell lacked work ethic and once he got paid he decided to not put in the work. If he had the right mental focus we may not be using him as an example of a bust. Fitz made poor decisions and lacked arm talent. He had to throw his entire weight into his throws to put zip on it and when he could not step up the ball had too much air under it. But he was extremely smart and could read coverages quickly.
jrober38 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 4 hours ago, racketmaster said: It's still not the same. It would be like saying Big Ben and Derek Carr have the same body type. Allen has the ability to shake defenders off him because he is so big and strong. It is the same though. Both guys have prototypical size for the position. Allen being two inches taller means nothing. Derek Carr is 6'2, 215 pounds. It makes no sense to pretend comparing him to Big Ben who is 6'5 and probably 250. Kyle Boller was 6'3, 235 pounds with 4.65 speed and a bazooka for an arm. Allen is 6'5, 237 pounds with 4.8 speed. He was just as impressive a physical specimen as Allen, and he climbed boards dramatically through the pre draft process, winding up as a mid 1st round pick. He was a freak athlete with speed, agility, a big body and a huge arm, and none of it mattered in the NFL. Given his height, you can argue he was better built than Allen given their nearly identical weight. Boller never overcame his accuracy problems and was a colossal NFL bust. 4 hours ago, Shaw66 said: People fall inlove with the physical attributes. There's no convincing them otherwise, until they fail. The Raiders talked themselves out of every possible concern they might have had about Jamarcus Russell. I have a lot of confidence that McBeane are completely on top of this. If they take Allen it'll be because they know several things we don't know. I put some stock in the Wonderlic scores, and it's interesting that Allen had the highest of the QBs. Of course, Fitz was off the charts on the Wonderlic and he still threw every critical INT he could. I'll never understand it. If Josh Allen was 6'1, 215 pounds like Baker Mayfield, he'd be nothing more than a late round pick. Do those 4 inches really make any difference in the NFL? I don't think they do.
racketmaster Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 8 hours ago, jrober38 said: It is the same though. Both guys have prototypical size for the position. Allen being two inches taller means nothing. Derek Carr is 6'2, 215 pounds. It makes no sense to pretend comparing him to Big Ben who is 6'5 and probably 250. Kyle Boller was 6'3, 235 pounds with 4.65 speed and a bazooka for an arm. Allen is 6'5, 237 pounds with 4.8 speed. He was just as impressive a physical specimen as Allen, and he climbed boards dramatically through the pre draft process, winding up as a mid 1st round pick. He was a freak athlete with speed, agility, a big body and a huge arm, and none of it mattered in the NFL. Given his height, you can argue he was better built than Allen given their nearly identical weight. Boller never overcame his accuracy problems and was a colossal NFL bust. I'll never understand it. If Josh Allen was 6'1, 215 pounds like Baker Mayfield, he'd be nothing more than a late round pick. Do those 4 inches really make any difference in the NFL? I don't think they do. Kyle Boller and Allen share some similarities but Allen is still the bigger stronger player. Boller surprised scouts by showing up at combine at 234lbs and I don’t believe he continued playing at that weight. Plus, Boller had a 48% completion rate in college as compared to Allen’s 56%. That alone should end the discussion because that would be like ignoring the completion percentage between Allen and Rosen. Similar speed but Allen scored a 37 on wonderlic to Boller’s 27. There are also more differences in their background but the point is Allen is a better overall prospect. Allen may still fail but so could any of these qbs. And as side note, Boller has been listed at 220lbs on NFL.com for his career stats and that weight is much more indicative of the player I saw play in the NFL. The combine weight was manufactured weight and did not last throughout his playing career. Allen is country strong and has a BIg Ben frame. He will likely be in the 240s as far as weight as his career goes along and would never play at 220lbs. Edited April 4, 2018 by racketmaster 2
Scorp83 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 22 hours ago, stuvian said: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/04/03/josh-allens-red-flag-is-the-obvious-his-stats-stink/ "QBASE Says Josh Allen is going to suck" You don't say... 21 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said: Because if he figures it out, he'll likely be the best QB of the class. He has every QB beat in the physical tools department, and that matters to many teams. I like his potential, and he could be molded by the right coach, but he could really benefit from riding the pine for a year or two. He's certainly a boom/bust type prospect. Being smart, huge and having a howitzer under your right shoulder will always put you high in the draft. As a Bills fan.... why do you want to go through that?!?! C'mon brah... let's not get a headache if we don't have to. We have a shot to draft a really good QB, let's not waste it on a headache. We've had one for 18 years! 21 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said: The NFL is not a perfectly rational business. 6'5, 235 lb, smart and a bazooka arm will always be appealing, just like a 6'7, 310lb "dancing bear" tackle. There are always a few coaches who think they can be the ones to develop a player past their flaws. I'm not going to pretend that I've watched "tape" on Allen, but if he's graded so highly, he can't be that bad throwing the ball. It is true that if he fails, it will likely be because of his field vision or accuracy issues. Injury (at his size)or character concerns are unlikely. Right now, there is a team high in the 1st that is drooling over the prospect of Allen as their future QB. And their GM will be fired in 2 years
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) Qbase said same about Ryan and Brees In 2015, but RG3 is ahead of Manning and Rodgers. Ponder over Carr? This is is meaningless junk... QBASE Projections for Top 100 Picks Since 1997 Player Drafted By Pick Year Predicted DYAR in Years 3-5 Actual DYAR in Years 3-5 Philip Rivers SD 4 2004 2317 2679 Carson Palmer CIN 1 2003 2266 2268 Donovan McNabb PHI 2 1999 1946 1075 Russell Wilson SEA 75 2012 1561 503* Robert Griffin WAS 2 2012 1519 -374* Peyton Manning IND 1 1998 1463 3922 Byron Leftwich JAC 7 2003 1200 369 Aaron Rodgers GB 24 2005 1198 1891 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 11 2004 1193 1381 John Beck MIA 40 2007 1151 -143 Matthew Stafford DET 1 2009 1125 3021 Andrew Luck IND 1 2012 1076 879* Chad Pennington NYJ 18 2000 1069 2631 Christian Ponder MIN 12 2011 1061 -188** Daunte Culpepper MIN 11 1999 1061 1620 Player Drafted By Pick Year Predicted DYAR in Years 3-5 Actual DYAR in Years 3-5 Cade McNown CHI 12 1999 972 0 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 32 2014 945 --*** Jay Cutler DEN 11 2006 936 831 Danny Wuerffel NO 99 1997 928 -160 Matt Leinart ARI 10 2006 915 -56 Eli Manning NYG 1 2004 892 1179 Jason Campbell WAS 25 2005 891 666 Brian Brohm GB 56 2008 853 0 Tim Tebow DEN 25 2010 849 -9 Geno Smith NYJ 39 2013 839 --*** Kevin Kolb PHI 36 2007 830 33 Kellen Clemens NYJ 49 2006 800 -92 Jake Plummer ARI 42 1997 790 266 Cam Newton CAR 1 2011 781 316** Alex Smith SF 1 2005 771 -763 Player Drafted By Pick Year Predicted DYAR in Years 3-5 Actual DYAR in Years 3-5 Drew Brees SD 32 2001 737 1822 Vince Young TEN 3 2006 690 616 Derek Carr OAK 36 2014 641 --*** Sam Bradford STL 1 2010 617 692 Colt McCoy CLE 85 2010 610 -19 Andrew Walter OAK 69 2005 583 -227 JaMarcus Russell OAK 1 2007 535 -834 Johnny Manziel CLE 22 2014 486 --*** Blake Bortles JAC 3 2014 471 --*** Matt Schaub ATL 90 2004 437 1181 David Greene SEA 85 2005 432 0 Tim Couch CLE 1 1999 428 -366 Nick Foles PHI 88 2012 392 264* Charlie Frye CLE 67 2005 368 -271 David Carr HOU 1 2002 365 -215 Player Drafted By Pick Year Predicted DYAR in Years 3-5 Actual DYAR in Years 3-5 Brandon Weeden CLE 22 2012 325 21* Brady Quinn CLE 22 2007 262 -207 Drew Stanton DET 43 2007 257 174 Quincy Carter DAL 53 2001 248 263 Chad Henne MIA 57 2008 220 183 Matt Barkley PHI 98 2013 208 --*** Akili Smith CIN 3 1999 198 -55 Shaun King TB 50 1999 183 -102 Joey Harrington DET 3 2002 178 -149 EJ Manuel BUF 16 2013 170 --*** Ryan Mallett NE 74 2011 168 120* Matt Ryan ATL 3 2008 158 3438 Jimmy Clausen CAR 48 2010 153 -5 Brock Huard SEA 77 1999 139 -8 Andy Dalton CIN 35 2011 138 778** Player Drafted By Pick Year Predicted DYAR in Years 3-5 Actual DYAR in Years 3-5 Ryan Leaf SD 2 1998 105 -727 Jim Druckenmiller SF 26 1997 54 0 Colin Kaepernick SF 36 2011 22 882** Blaine Gabbert JAC 10 2011 14 -429** Jake Locker TEN 8 2011 2 -102** Chris Redman BAL 75 2000 -45 -67 Rex Grossman CHI 22 2003 -82 -175 Dave Ragone HOU 88 2003 -114 0 Pat White MIA 44 2009 -155 0 Brian Griese DEN 91 1998 -172 2004 Mark Sanchez NYJ 5 2009 -184 -649 J.P. Losman BUF 22 2004 -192 -310 Josh Freeman TB 17 2009 -194 -154 Kyle Boller BAL 19 2003 -222 56 Brodie Croyle KC 85 2006 https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/introducing-qbase Edited April 4, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood 1
Chicken Boo Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 All Josh Allen needs is the right situation. The reality is that there are very few NFL coaches that can properly develop a young QB. I'm not a Patrick Mahomes fan, but I have little doubt that he'll find success with Andy Reid.
jrober38 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, JayBaller10 said: These charts are courtesy of PFF. It's amazing how much size matters in the NFL QB evaluations. Put Mayfield's skill set in Allen's body and he's the hands down #1 pick in the draft. Put Allen's skill set in Mayfield's body and he struggles to get drafted. 49 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Qbase said same about Ryan and Brees In 2015, but RG3 is ahead of Manning and Rodgers. Ponder over Carr? This is is meaningless junk... https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/introducing-qbase It might not be great at predicting success, but it's pretty darn good at predicting who the busts will be. Edited April 4, 2018 by jrober38
HappyDays Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 12 hours ago, racketmaster said: Kyle Boller and Allen share some similarities but Allen is still the bigger stronger player Okay but if Kyle Boller had been 2 inches taller and 25 pounds heavier he still would have been a bust. He didn't fail because his arm wasn't strong as Allen's, he failed because he had horrible accuracy and decision making. It would have made zero difference if he was physically the same as Allen. There's a minimum arm strength you need to be a good starting NFL QB, no arguing that. More arm strength than that minimum is just gravy. If you can throw the deep out without the CB jumping in front of the ball you're fine. Brady doesn't have the strongest arm but it's strong enough, and his processing speed gives him an advantage anyways. If Allen's processing speed is just a half second slower than average, his arm strength advantage disappears. And judging from his college tape he definitely does not process things well on the field. NFL passing offenses are about timing and anticipation, not launching the ball as far down the field as possible. Alex Smith is not known for elite arm strength by any means, but he was statistically the best deep ball thrower in the NFL last year. I don't understand why people care so much about arm strength. It's the last thing I would scout for assuming the minimum standard is met. Some elite QBs have great arm strength, but they all have great accuracy and decision making. That's what you look for in a 1st round QB. Edited April 4, 2018 by HappyDays 1
jrober38 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Okay but if Kyle Boller had been 2 inches taller and 25 pounds heavier he still would have been a bust. He didn't fail because his arm wasn't strong as Allen's, he failed because he had horrible accuracy and decision making. It would have made zero difference if he was physically the same as Allen. There's a minimum arm strength you need to be a good starting NFL QB, no arguing that. More arm strength than that minimum is just gravy. If you can throw the deep out without the CB jumping in front of the ball you're fine. Brady doesn't have the strongest arm but it's strong enough, and his processing speed gives him an advantage anyways. If Allen's processing speed is just a half second slower than average, his arm strength advantage disappears. And judging from his college tape he definitely does not process things well on the field. NFL passing offenses are about timing and anticipation, not launching the ball as far down the field as possible. Alex Smith is not known for elite arm strength by any means, but he was statistically the best deep ball thrower in the NFL last year. I don't understand why people care so much about arm strength. It's the last thing I would scout for assuming the minimum standard is met. Some elite QBs have great arm strength, but they all have great accuracy and decision making. That's what you look for in a 1st round QB. Measurables mean nothing in my eyes. Quarterbacks get paid to pass the ball. That's all that matters. As you said, are they accurate and can they read a defense? Without those skills, I don't care how big, tall and fast a guy is because he'll never be an elite NFL passer.
racketmaster Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 (edited) It’s hard to trust a measurement that has Danny Wuefferl that high. Lol He had one of the weakest arms I’ve ever seen in the NFL. I like stats but it can be a dangerous game using college stats to project NFL success. Their are 22 players on the field at a time and there is only a small percentage of them who are actually NFL quality players. There is no consistency amongst the players on the field. At any given time there could be a future all pro playing next to a future Sales Manager. We have seen college qbs with tremendous college stats fail in the NFL and we have seen college qbs with less than adequate stats excel in the NFL. Allen has a chance to succeed because he has a rare combination of NFL level physical traits. He also has intelligence and work ethic making it possible for him to fully take advantage of his skill set. No guarantees of success but the hate for Allen by some fans seems over the top. Personally, I’d probably take Darnold and Mayfield over Allen but he would be my 3rd choice over Rosen (mostly because of serious durability concerns as well as whether he has enough competive DNA in him). Edited April 5, 2018 by racketmaster
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