QBASE says Josh Allen likely to suck

[racketmaster]

Again, accuracy is extremely important but I think some on here are getting carried away thinking it cannot be improved. There is no guarantee that Allen can make significant improvement but I feel like many have closed off the possibility entirely. 

 

So Allen is 56% in completion percentage. Rosen is 63% and thought to be the most polished passer. 

So how could Allen close the gap?

1. Improve mechanics

2. Play with better WRs as receivers were awful last year and had trouble getting open. 

3. Learn to take a little off the shorter and intermediate throws. 

4. Play smarter and take check downs more often. 

 

All indications are that Allen is smart, coachable and has already made improvement since the end of the season. So, It is possible that the above 4 could happen and if it does Allen will end up as an elite qb. 

 

Heck, Allen rarely threw a screen pass or wr screen. If he threw 5-6 of those a game his comp. % would not be the story it is right now. There are no guarantees with any prospect. 

 

And full disclosure, I am not sold enough on Allen to trade up for him (especially in top 5) but am certainly intrigued by him and would be thrilled to take him at 12. There are things I like and dislike about each of the top 6 qbs but believe they each could be successful if put in the right situation. 

Edited April 3, 2018 by racketmaster

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

You know what I'd do with a guy like Allen, I'd take him in the 2nd round and give him the Aaron Rodgers treatment. Three years on the bench, give him some spot play here and there when games are out of reach. Every day of that 3 years he's be working with a personal coach whose job is to teach him new muscle memory. I think that's the only way you could hope to make it work. And truthfully that MIGHT work, I don't know because NFL teams don't try that very often. It's usually one year on the bench and then you're thrown to the wolves. Usually what happens there is the guy will flash for a few games but eventually revert to his old mechanics.

 

If only NFL teams would actually try to innovate we could see more guys like Allen get a real shot to improve. But more likely than not he'll be pushed onto the field early. Look at what the Chiefs are doing with Pat Mahomes. He was very similar to Allen coming out of Texas Tech, needs some time to develop NFL traits. So what do they Do? Give him exactly one year then trade away Alex Smith coming off the best season of his career. Now Mahomes is forced to start with nothing but one year of NFL training. Why has Rodgers been the only QB given ample time to develop? It makes no sense to me.

The NFL doesn't do that because of cost.  They'd have to expand the rosters or the practice squad, and if there'd have to be a way to protect a guy like Allen on the practice squad.   And he'd want a lot of money.   It is largely a sink or swim situation. 

 

Yes, they could work on a guy's mechanics like that, but the real skill, the decision making, is learned only on the field in real games.   So the guy has to be good enough to get on the field to get that playing time. 

 

The fact is, if you've got it, you make it, and if you don't, you don't.   People here often say well, if you put this guy in the right situation, he'll grow into the position.   I think that's hogwash.  I can't think of a QB who was a failure on his first team and then, under different coaching, miraculously blossomed.   Maybe Kurt Warner is one.   Most guys move on to their second team and look pretty much the same as they did with their first team.   If the situation really changed the fortunes of QBs, there's be lots of stories about how this guy became a star with his second team.   

 

But, as usual, I agree with you.   I wouldn't burn a first round pick on Allen, because he he's low probability.   But his physical skill apparently are so spectacular that he may be worth taking as a project.   He may very well go in the first round, and I doubt he fall past the second.  

[jrober38]

5 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

Again, accuracy is extremely important but I think some on here are getting carried away thinking it cannot be improved. There is no guarantee that Allen can make significant improvement but I feel like many have closed off the possibility entirely. 

 

So Allen is 56% in completion percentage. Rosen is 63% and thought to be the most polished passer. 

So how could Allen close the gap?

1. Improve mechanics

2. Play with better WRs as receivers were awful last year and had trouble getting open. 

3. Learn to take a little off the shorter and intermediate throws. 

4. Play smarter and take check downs more often. 

 

All indications are that Allen is smart, coachable and has already made improvement since the end of the season. So, It is possible that the above 4 could happen and if it does Allen will end up as an elite qb. 

 

Heck, Allen rarely threw a screen pass or wr screen. If he threw 5-6 of those a game his comp. % would not be the story it is right now. There are no guarantees with any prospect. 

 

And full disclosure, I am not sold enough on Allen to trade up for him (especially in top 5) but am certainly intrigued by him and would be thrilled to take him at 12. There are things I like and dislike about each of the top 6 qbs but believe they each could be successful if put in the right situation. 

 

Simple question, when was the last time a guy with accuracy issues and a college completion percentage below 58% made it in the NFL?

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Ayjent said:

If you watched EJ Manuel in college you knew he wasn't a great passer and it was a very close to pro system he played in.  He often made wide open guys have to adjust to poorly thrown balls, and actually left a lot of plays on the field because of his inconsistent passing and inaccuracy.  He could string together some plays, but he would really struggle at other times.  He never really passed with any rhythm, and he was really a disappointment to many Noles fans that saw his problems frequently crop up in the biggest games.

 

I can remember my utter disbelief when he was drafted in the first round.  People I know who are FSU Grads and alumni were all calling me up and laughing their asses off at how dumb that pick was.   That was a peach of a pick - Nix/Whaley combo didn't know what a good QB prospect looked like.  It took Rex freaking Ryan to actually help out to get a decent guy on the roster.

I always defend the Manuel pick, although I agree with what you're saying about his passing.   

 

I defend the pick because if you're the GM of the Bills in that draft, you MUST take a QB, because you don't have one.   So you evaluate the talent and make the best pick you can.   Manuel probably was the best choice of the group available, and the plan, to have him sit for a season, was the right thing to do for him.   Unfortunately, it didn't work out well, but the Bills had to take SOMEONE.   Maybe they should have taken two, but the pickins were slim, for sure. 

 

I've always said the Bills didn't manage the QB situation horribly after Bledsoe, they just made bad picks.    Moving up to take Losman was addressing the QB situation.   Problem was their evaluation of him was wrong.   And moving up cost them Aaron Rodgers in the draft the following year.   Taking Edwards in the third was a good move, good planning for the position, and it seemed like it was working until his concussion.   

 

The biggest mistake was betting on Fitz.   Well, betting on him made some sense, but not immediately drafting the next guy in line was the mistake.   Just like they took Edwards when they thought Losman would be the guy, they should have taken someone when they gave Fitz his deal.   And that someone was Russell Wilson.   Because they didn't draft Fitzy's replacement, the Bills found them sevesin a situation where they were forced to draft someone, and that someone turned out to be Manuel.  

[racketmaster]

12 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Simple question, when was the last time a guy with accuracy issues and a college completion percentage below 58% made it in the NFL?

Why 58%? But I already mentioned that Stafford was a 57.1% passer in college. 

 

Overall, It probably does not happen that often just like we don’t have too many qbs under 6’0 that are any good, except Wilson. Allen checks so many other boxes that it make him a very intriguing prospect. 

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

Why 58%? But I already mentioned that Stafford was a 57.1% passer in college. 

 

Overall, It probably does not happen that often just like we don’t have too many qbs under 6’0 that are any good, except Wilson. Allen checks so many other boxes that it make him a very intriguing prospect. 

So there's one guy (albeit one who completed 61% his final year). 

 

Seems like the type of player everyone should avoid. 

 

Some first rounders over the past 15 years who didn't pass the mark: JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington, Jake Locker, Akili Smith and Brady Quinn. 

Edited April 3, 2018 by jrober38

[GoBills808]

22 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Simple question, when was the last time a guy with accuracy issues and a college completion percentage below 58% made it in the NFL?

Stafford as someone mentioned. Russell Wilson was another sub 58% QB until his senior year when he went to Wisconsin.

 

If you use another arbitrary percentage like, say, 60% you get guys like Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer. Eli Manning barely makes the cut at 60.8%. 

[HappyDays]

37 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The NFL doesn't do that because of cost.  They'd have to expand the rosters or the practice squad, and if there'd have to be a way to protect a guy like Allen on the practice squad.   And he'd want a lot of money.   It is largely a sink or swim situation. 

 

Well the Packers were able to do it without any issues. I think teams are just too impatient. I don't watch too much hockey but I know in the NHL it's expected that many of your draft picks will not play for a couple years. The Sabres drafted a player in the 1st round who had just graduated high school. Windows in the NFL are so small so teams aren't willing to try that, but the one time they did they got Aaron Rodgers so I'm surprised it isn't tried more.

 

I do wonder how much depends on the right team drafting you but I generally agree that it doesn't make a difference most of the time. And I don't know if the accuracy issues that Allen has could be corrected in any amount of time. I've seen some people mention that he misses throws even when his mechanics appear to be perfect. Something in our brain allows us to make predictions about where a moving object will be, and maybe his brain just doesn't have that and never will.

[racketmaster]

40 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

So there's one guy (albeit one who completed 61% his final year). 

 

Seems like the type of player everyone should avoid. 

 

Some first rounders over the past 15 years who didn't pass the mark: JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington, Jake Locker, Akili Smith and Brady Quinn. 

I think this is how scouts and executives earn their paychecks. Unfortunately, there is no one variable that makes an elite quarterback and there is no one deficiency that necessarlily prohibits a player from achieving the status of being a franchise quarterback. There are so many variables and every qb is a littel different (just like no two fingerprints are the same). We may compare 2 qbs who have similar physical traits but mentally and emotionally they could be complete opposites and this will impact whether they are a success or not. That is why it can be foolish to make declarations about 1 particular attribute or statistic and not consider the many other attributes/skills the qb may be bringing to the tabel. Taking stats from the college game and applying them to the NFL is not easy to do. We have seen many college qbs who play in qb friendly systems that pad their stats but they have had severe physical limitations and have not made it in the NFL. 

 

We can go round and round on Allen and his completion percentage. But there have been players that have improved from college and there have been players that have improved significantly even after being in the NFL for several years (Alex Smith). Allen is clearly in the "danger" zone in terms of completion percentage. But scouts need to figure out why that is and if there can be improvement. Personally, I feel Allen had a inexperienced wr corps last year that also lacked in talent. His o-line did him not favors. This needs to be factored into his overall grade and scouts will do this. It appears the Browns have gotten answers that have made them believe Allen can improve on his completion numbers. I am quite sure there are other teams that are not sold on his ability to improve. In my opinion, Allen does not have to completely overhaul his mechanics like a Tim Tebow. So I believe he could make the slight improvements necessary to become a franchise qb. 

 

It really comes down to looking at the whole person and every variable as well as the coaches and players he was surrounded by in college (both teammates and opponents). It would be foolish to declare Allen a great prospect just because he throws the ball really hard and it is also foolish to say that his 56% completion percentage makes him inaccurate for life and prohibits him from ever becoming a franchise qb.

28 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Stafford as someone mentioned. Russell Wilson was another sub 58% QB until his senior year when he went to Wisconsin.

 

If you use another arbitrary percentage like, say, 60% you get guys like Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer. Eli Manning barely makes the cut at 60.8%. 

That's a great point with Wilson. How do we really know that Allen would not have significantly improved on his completion percentage if he stayed for his senior year? The answere is we don't and scouts have to take this into account when making projections. 

 

And yes, JP, Boller, Harrington, Smith, Locker and Quinn did not make it. But was it because of accuracy issues. Could it be they did not have the right mental make up and attitude like JP or Aliki Smith. Could they have lost confidence like Locker. Quinn and Harrington arm strength was no where near what Allen has. Again, each player is a unique recipe so it is a challenge to pick out one thing that has determined a player's success or failure. 

Edited April 3, 2018 by racketmaster

[Shaw66]

22 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Well the Packers were able to do it without any issues. I think teams are just too impatient. I don't watch too much hockey but I know in the NHL it's expected that many of your draft picks will not play for a couple years. The Sabres drafted a player in the 1st round who had just graduated high school. Windows in the NFL are so small so teams aren't willing to try that, but the one time they did they got Aaron Rodgers so I'm surprised it isn't tried more.

 

I do wonder how much depends on the right team drafting you but I generally agree that it doesn't make a difference most of the time. And I don't know if the accuracy issues that Allen has could be corrected in any amount of time. I've seen some people mention that he misses throws even when his mechanics appear to be perfect. Something in our brain allows us to make predictions about where a moving object will be, and maybe his brain just doesn't have that and never will.

It's different when you have a Hall of Fame QB.   You can draft a Garopolo or a Rodgers and sit him and work on him.   The problem in that situation is what to do when you Hall of Fame quarterback doesn't want to retire on you schedule. 

 

Rodgers would have started as a rookie in Buffalo.    Why?   Because you have to play your best player, and he would have been the best QB in camp.   It's inconceivable that the 2005 Bills would have drafted Rodgers in the first round and then told the fans he wasn't going to play for three years.   Bills had NO ONE at QB by that time.    Plus, it's inconceivable that Mr. Wilson would have paid him first round money to sit for three years.    

[jrober38]

32 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

It's different when you have a Hall of Fame QB.   You can draft a Garopolo or a Rodgers and sit him and work on him.   The problem in that situation is what to do when you Hall of Fame quarterback doesn't want to retire on you schedule. 

 

Rodgers would have started as a rookie in Buffalo.    Why?   Because you have to play your best player, and he would have been the best QB in camp.   It's inconceivable that the 2005 Bills would have drafted Rodgers in the first round and then told the fans he wasn't going to play for three years.   Bills had NO ONE at QB by that time.    Plus, it's inconceivable that Mr. Wilson would have paid him first round money to sit for three years.    

 

This is why drafting Josh Allen with a top 5 pick is so dangerous. 

 

Top 5 picks don't sit on the bench anymore. There are immediate expectations that people have nowadays, and he's going to see the field sooner than later. The Giants or Broncos might be able to keep him there throughout the year if Eli and Case Keenum play well, but as soon as either of those guys falter, the fans and the media in particular are going to begin asking the question of when Allen will see the field. 

 

Every scouting report on Allen says he is nowhere near ready to play yet. He needs a year, or two, or three to learn the NFL game and work on his mechanics, and he's simply not going to be afforded that time. Like every other bust QB who had accuracy issues, he's going to be thrust into a starting spot before they're actually remedied, and the result is going to be yet another train wreck. NFL defenders are too fast and the throwing windows are too small for a guy with decision making and accuracy problems to not get eaten alive at this level. 

 

Ultimately it's really freaking hard to find a real franchise QB. Generally speaking the guys who make it are guys who dominated college football for at least a year while they were there. Josh didn't do that, as QBASE points out, his adjusted performance relative to who he played was horrendous. Expecting a guy who was a mediocre college QB to go to the NFL and have to carry a crappy team within his first year or two is a recipe for disaster, as it has always been in the past. 

 

The game tape doesn't lie. If you look at his body of work, and what he does well and what his flaws are and what he needs to have happen to be successful in the NFL, he's nothing more than a mid round pick who should be stashed on the bench for a number of years before being given the opportunity to compete for a starting job. Picking him in the top 5 and burdening him with the expectations that come with such a high pick will force him onto the field prematurely, and because he won't be properly prepared he will need to improvise, and improvisation and going off script will lead to all his bad habits running right back. 

Edited April 3, 2018 by jrober38

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, jrober38 said:

Everything about Josh Allen screams that he's going to be a terrible NFL QB. From the stats, to the game tape, to the advanced analytics, I have no idea how anyone is talking about this guy being the 1st overall pick in the draft. He belongs in the 3rd or 4th round. 

 

Yep.

 

Has anyone ever been so wildly unsuccessful as a QB at such a small college against such crappy competition and been drafted super high and come into the NFL and been a Franchise QB?

 

That's a legit question.  Can anyone identify anyone?

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yep.

 

Has anyone ever been so wildly unsuccessful as a QB at such a small college against such crappy competition and been drafted super high and come into the NFL and been a Franchise QB?

 

That's a legit question.  Can anyone identify anyone?

 

Not that I can think of from the past 15 years. 

 

Garoppolo was at a small school against terrible competition but he had great numbers. 

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, Logic said:

 Meanwhile, Allen can't play worth a lick but he's a good christian boy from the midwest and he's built like an American Gladiator...so there's legit fear that McBeane is Ga-Ga and trades up for him.

 

By the way, I think you seriously misperceive McBeane on this one.   Yes, they are Christians and they believe there is great value in that, but I don't think Christian is anywhere on their checklist.   These guys are detail oriented and methodical.   They can tell you without notes exactly what it is they are looking in a QB, and they will evaluate each guy against those criteria.   They aren't taking a guy because he's a Christian, and they aren't not taking a guy because he's a Jew.   They are way above that.  

[DCOrange]

37 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yep.

 

Has anyone ever been so wildly unsuccessful as a QB at such a small college against such crappy competition and been drafted super high and come into the NFL and been a Franchise QB?

 

That's a legit question.  Can anyone identify anyone?

 

His numbers are pretty similar to Carson Wentz with the exception of the completion percentage. On a per game basis during their two years as starters:

 

Wentz: 207 yards, 1.8 TDs, 0.6 INTs

Allen: 201 yards, 1.8 TDs, 0.8 INTs

 

If you normalize their numbers for the same number of pass attempts (for ***** and giggles, I extrapolated it as if both of them threw the same number of passes as Dak Prescott this season; he was 16th in the league in pass attempts)...

 

Wentz: 4,123 yards, 36 TDs, 12 INTs

Allen: 3,822 yards, 34 TDs, 16 INTs

 

The numbers aren't identical but they're pretty freakin close, and Allen played against a higher caliber of competition than Wentz did. People shouldn't be so scared of a player's completion percentage IMO. YPA is much more important, and while Wentz is still better in that regard, it's a difference of 0.6 yards per attempt and if you want to be optimistic and focus on Allen's sophomore year, his YPA was actually better than Wentz.

[racketmaster]

47 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yep.

 

Has anyone ever been so wildly unsuccessful as a QB at such a small college against such crappy competition and been drafted super high and come into the NFL and been a Franchise QB?

 

That's a legit question.  Can anyone identify anyone?

 

Brett Favre at Southern Mississippi at had career 52.4% completion rate. His stats overall were pretty low and a 52-34 TD/INT rate. 

Granted Favre was a long time ago but we are also talking about guys who have the rare ability to throw that hard and far. With the right coaching and development, he was able to become a HOF QB. 

[Logic]

16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

By the way, I think you seriously misperceive McBeane on this one.   Yes, they are Christians and they believe there is great value in that, but I don't think Christian is anywhere on their checklist.   These guys are detail oriented and methodical.   They can tell you without notes exactly what it is they are looking in a QB, and they will evaluate each guy against those criteria.   They aren't taking a guy because he's a Christian, and they aren't not taking a guy because he's a Jew.   They are way above that.  

I hope you're right about the importance they do or don't place on faith and squeaky clean off-field behavior. I KNOW you're right about how methodical and detail oriented they are. Mr Pegula even mentioned it recently when asked what it's been like to work with Brandon Beane: "It's amazing how methodical he is". He mentioned it a couple times.

It's fair to say that WHOEVER the Bills select at QB, McBeane has done their homework. And no matter who it is, even if it's Allen, I'll be behind him 100% and root for him to succeed. And I will have faith that the these guys must have seen SOMETHING in the prospect, since they're basically staking their jobs on his success.

Me, personally? It's so simple from where I sit: If I'm gonna bank on a set of qualities and stake my job on drafting a QB with said qualities, I'll choose throwing accuracy, competitive fire, chip on the shoulder, leadership, and proven production over cannon arm, ideal build, perceived upside, and projected growth 10 times out of 10. I really, really hope the Bills select Baker Mayfield. In my own opinion -- and it's just that: an opinion -- people will look back in 5 years and not be able to figure out how everyone couldn't tell from afar that Mayfield was the best of the bunch. He has Hall of Fame and "most popular Buffalo Bill of all time" potential. But he's two inches too short and he's borderline arrogant, so we keep seeing him listed as the 4th or 5th best QB prospect. I don't get it.

We'll see. April 26th can't come soon enough.

[racketmaster]

Matt Ryan was a 59.9% rate at BC and had a 56-37 TD-INT rate. Allen is 56.1% and a 44-21 TD-INT rate. 

 

Think about Matt Stafford who was a career 57.1% rate at Georgia. Analysts knocked his accuracy before the draft. I pulled this from a Lions forum discussing this issue after the 2009 draft:

 

Going into the draft, several draft analysts said one of the biggest knocks on Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford was his lack of accuracy, but Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan isn't buying it. Linehan said Stafford's numbers weren't as impressive because Georgia took more shots downfield in their passing attack.


"It wasn't a dink-and-dunk deal and the reason they did that is because they could - he had the arm to do it,'' Linehan said. 

 

This sounds familiar to me as Allen did not dink and dunk his way down the field. Sometimes qbs who have really strong arms have a tendency to want to show their arms off. Past experience has shown them that they can fit balls into spots other qbs can't and that they can get big plays down the field. A good OC can help guide and develop this type of qb just like Favre was developed. It may not always work out but Allen is far from a sure fire bust. 

Edited April 3, 2018 by racketmaster

[Logic]

9 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

Matt Ryan was a 59.9% rate at BC and had a 56-37 TD-INT rate. Allen is 56.1% and a 44-21 TD-INT rate. 

 

So Matt Ryan had a higher completion percentage and threw for more touchdowns in Division 1 than Allen did in Division 2? 

Is this supposed to make me like Josh Allen?

 

[racketmaster]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

So Matt Ryan had a higher completion percentage and threw for more touchdowns in Division 1 than Allen did in Division 2? 

Is this supposed to make me like Josh Allen?

 

Who said Allen played Division 2 football? He played for Wyoming in the Mountain West Conference. 

 

If you want stats that are worse than Allen's then look at Brett Favre. 

 

Brett Favre at Southern Mississippi at had career 52.4% completion rate. His stats overall were pretty low and a 52-34 TD/INT rate. 

Edited April 3, 2018 by racketmaster