QBASE says Josh Allen likely to suck

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Did I disagree with that part of his post?

 

I guess your underlying point is that Josh Allen doesn't have accuracy. And there are now questions about that. Check the interview I posted with Jordan Palmer about working with Allen over the past few months.

 

Palmer says the inaccuracy was from a mechanical flaw, overstriding, and that it can be addressed and in fact has already been addressed in Palmer's sessions with Allen, and that that's the reason he was more accurate in the Senior Bowl than he was during the season, more accurate still at the combine and will be extremely accurate at his Pro Day. Clearly that's no guarantee that the changes will stick, but they might.

 

That, I believe, is why teams are so interested in a guy whose completion percentage was so low.

Did I disagree with what you said about strong arms?

 

I didn't say anything about Josh Allen's accuracy, but keep on guessing.   

[jrober38]

44 minutes ago, Putin said:

Actually he’s on par with Dan Marino as far as 

competition %  

 

Completion percentage has little to do with accuracy. 

[HappyDays]

31 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

Going back to the late 90s, they've run this QBASE thing on all QBs taken within the first 100 picks. I think 27 of them had negative ratings (like Allen) and not a one of them turned into a viable NFL QB.

 

Yikes that's a pretty decent sample size so that result is scary. Keep in mind QBASE also factors in the QB's projected draft position to account for live scouting. So his projection as a top 5 pick is pushing his QBASE higher than it normally would be, and it's still negative. All the analytics say he's going to be an all-time bust.

[jrober38]

41 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Marino had a freaking gatling gun. Kelly had a strong arm. Both great Steelers QBs, Bradshaw and Roethlisberger had big arms. Elway had a monster arm. Lamonica..

 

And those are some of all-time greats. So, sorry but that doesn't hold up. Sure, some of the all-time greats didn't. But a very fair percentage did.

 

Agreed that he has to improve his accuracy. There's some indications that he already has from his QB coach, Jordan Palmer. We'll see how that holds up.

 

Brady, Montana, Brees and Peyton have average NFL arms. None of them have a cannon. 

 

Between every guy I named, and every guy you named, the one thing they all have in common is accuracy, which is Allen's worst attribute. 

 

I remember reading about how EJ Manuel improved his accuracy. Then he played in the NFL and was one of the least accurate QBs I've ever seen. 

 

Accuracy can be refined, but it can't be retaught from scratch, which is what Allen needs to have happen. 

[jrober38]

39 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yikes that's a pretty decent sample size so that result is scary. Keep in mind QBASE also factors in the QB's projected draft position to account for live scouting. So his projection as a top 5 pick is pushing his QBASE higher than it normally would be, and it's still negative. All the analytics say he's going to be an all-time bust.

 

I just looked it up, since 1997, only the following QBs have had a negative QBASE Projection who were 1st round picks: Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, JP Losman, Patrick Ramsey, and Josh Allen.

 

Everyone of those guys picked before Allen has been a colossal bust. 

Edited April 3, 2018 by jrober38

[racketmaster]

2 hours ago, jrober38 said:

Everything about Josh Allen screams that he's going to be a terrible NFL QB. From the stats, to the game tape, to the advanced analytics, I have no idea how anyone is talking about this guy being the 1st overall pick in the draft. He belongs in the 3rd or 4th round. 

When is a QB with Allen’s physical traits and excellent character ever drafted in the 3rd or 4th round?I get it that arm strength, height, weight, and hand size don’t guarantee success but it helps. Allen may have the strongest arm I have ever seen and he has the ability to throw on the run. He is also mobile for his size and has excellent character and intelligence. His team had a decent record when he was a starter, at least for a program that is not very good. 

 

Allen basically checks every box except the accuracy as judged by completion %. There have been sub 60% qbs that have had success such as Matthew Stanford, who also has ridiculous arm strength and prototypical size. Just like there are qbs that are short like Wilson and can still have success there are qbs that may not have had ideal accuracy numbers and can still be successful. 

 

Allen may not be my top qb but I can see why Cleveland will probably end up taking him. He was surrounded by terrible talent last year and was asked to make difficult throws, sometimes it was his own fault for trying to force balls down field instead of taking the check downs. A lot of qbs end up throwing a bunch of wr screens and short passes boosting their comp. %, but that is not Allen. 

 

Is he a risk, sure but all the qbs at the top have issues. His upside is Big Ben and it is easy to see coaches believing they can fix his accuracy through improved mechanics and timing. And they might be right and if they are they have a special player. We have to remember this is a farm kid who came from nowhere and had to go the junior college transfer route. He is still young and a little raw but CLE can afford to let TT start and give the kid a year to develop.

 

Again, he is not a perfect prospect and accuracy is extremely important but I think the hate for Allen has gone too far and is not justified. 

Edited April 3, 2018 by racketmaster

[blacklabel]

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I just looked it up, since 1997, only the following QBs have had a negative QBASE Projection: Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, JP Losman, Patrick Ramsey, and Josh Allen.

 

Everyone of those guys picked before Allen has been a colossal bust. 

 

This is correct. I'm not sure where I got 27 from. Must still be too early. 

 

I mean, could he buck the trend and turn into a star? Sure... just doesn't seem all that likely. But who knows, maybe with coaching at the professional level and playing with other pros will raise his game? Or not. 

 

They should just draft Neal Lomax and get it over with. 

[Logic]

Man....Josh Allen is really ruining my draft season.

I've never been more excited and impatient for an upcoming draft. With the Bills coming off a playoff berth (!), having as much ammo as they do, and looking like they seriously intend to trade up and pick a franchise QB...it would be hard for anything to rain on my parade. But then here comes Josh Allen! 

Count me as firmly in the "Allen is a bust waiting to happen, and NFL coaches never learn from their mistakes" crowd. I don't want the Bills to touch him with a 70 foot pole. And yet, because he has such outstanding character and is built like Cam Newton, it makes a reasonable amount of sense that the Bills would like him and want to draft him. Furthermore, all of this talk that Buffalo wants to trade into the top 5 seems to indicate that they want one of: Rosen/Darnold/Allen. You probably don't trade into the top 5 for Mayfield, as he's likely to fall further. So now I have to sit here and hope that the Bills like Rosen, who can actually, ya know...PLAY FOOTBALL...but also happens to be kind of a smarty pants and maybe also a douchebag and possibly someone McDermott/Beane feels doesn't fit their oh-so-important "DNA". Meanwhile, Allen can't play worth a lick but he's a good christian boy from the midwest and he's built like an American Gladiator...so there's legit fear that McBeane is Ga-Ga and trades up for him.

The one thing....the ONE thing...that can ruin this historic draft for the Bills is if they blow a bunch of capital on a big move-up and then select Josh freakin' Allen! Dear God, dear Buddha, dear Hindu Floaty Thing...PLEASE steer Josh Allen to the New York Jets or Cleveland Browns. In the name of all that is good and holy in the world. I went through Losman and Manuel, I can't do this all again!

Edited April 3, 2018 by Logic

[jrober38]

Just now, blacklabel said:

 

This is correct. I'm not sure where I got 27 from. Must still be too early. 

 

I mean, could he buck the trend and turn into a star? Sure... just doesn't seem all that likely. But who knows, maybe with coaching at the professional level and playing with other pros will raise his game? Or not. 

 

They should just draft Neal Lomax and get it over with. 

 

There were 27 guys in the first 100 picks. 

 

The only guys who went in the first round were the guys I just named. 

[blacklabel]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

There were 27 guys in the first 100 picks. 

 

The only guys who went in the first round were the guys I just named. 

 

All bums! Bums, I tell ya. 

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

When is a QB with Allen’s physical traits and excellent character ever drafted in the 3rd or 4th round?I get it that arm strength, height, weight, and hand size don’t guarantee success but it helps. Allen may have the strongest arm I have ever seen and he has the ability to throw on the run. He is also mobile for his size and has excellent character and intelligence. His team had a decent record when he was a starter, at least for a program that is not very good. 

 

Allen basically checks every box except the accuracy as judged by completion %. There have been sub 60% qbs that have had success such as Matthew Stanford, who also has ridiculous arm strength and prototypical size. Just like there are qbs that are short like Wilson and can still have success there are qbs that may not have had ideal accuracy numbers and can still be successful. 

 

Allen may not be my top qb but I can see why Cleveland will probably end up taking him. He was surrounded by terrible talent last year and was asked to make difficult throws, sometimes it was his own fault for trying to force balls down field instead of taking the check downs. A lot of qbs end up throwing a bunch of wr screens and short passes boosting their comp. %, but that is not Allen. 

 

Is he a risk, sure but all the qbs at the top have issues. His upside is Big Ben and it is easy to see coaches believing they can fix his accuracy through improved mechanics and timing. And they might be right and if they are they have a special player. We have to remember this is a farm kid who came from nowhere and had to go the junior college transfer route. He is still young and a little raw but CLE can afford to let TT start and give the kid a year to develop.

 

Again, he is not a perfect prospect and accuracy is extremely important but I think the hate for Allen has gone too far and is not justified. 

 

Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson are accurate passers. 

 

Josh Allen is an inaccurate passer as described by every stat and scouting report I've seen so far. 

 

Guys with major accuracy problems in college never succeed in the NFL. 

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, JayBaller10 said:

Let's put things into perspective...

 

		Boise State Passing
Player	School	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Josh Allen	Wyoming	12	27	44.4	131	4.9	2.3	1	2	82.6

 

 

		Hawaii
		Passing
Player	School	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Josh Allen	Wyoming	9	19	47.4	92	4.8	5.9	1	0	105.4

 

 

 

		Colorado State
		Passing
Player	School	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Josh Allen	Wyoming	10	20	50.0	138	6.9	6.9	0	0	108.0

 

 

 

 

		Ohio State Passing
Player	School	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	27	35	77.1	386	11.0	12.7	3	0	198.1

 

		TCU Passing
Player	School	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	15	23	65.2	243	10.6	14.0	4	0	211.4

 

		Georgia Passing
Player	School	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	23	35	65.7	287	8.2	8.1	2	1	147.7

 

I mean, what are we really talking about??

 

 

 

What I've been saying for a while and that is I personally think Mayfield is the best QB in the draft.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

1 hour ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Because if he figures it out, he'll likely be the best QB of the class. 

He has every QB beat in the physical tools department, and that matters to many teams. 

I like his potential, and he could be molded by the right coach, but he could really benefit from riding the pine for a year or two. He's certainly a boom/bust type prospect. Being smart, huge and having a howitzer under your right shoulder will always put you high in the draft. 

 

I agree with what your saying but this also explains why nearly a 3rd of these Gms/ HCs continue to get fired yr in yr out.

[racketmaster]

14 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson are accurate passers. 

 

Josh Allen is an inaccurate passer as described by every stat and scouting report I've seen so far. 

 

Guys with major accuracy problems in college never succeed in the NFL. 

All I am saying is Stanford had a 57.1% rate in college and Allen is a 56% passer. I think they both had some issues with accuracy in college. 

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

What I've been saying for a while and that is I personally think Mayfield is the best QB in the draft.

I don't get into these draft discussion very much because I'e never studied the QBs nearly enough to form an intelligent opinion.   

 

Some people say Allen will be great.  Some say it's Darnold.  Some say it's Rosen.  Some say it's Mayfield.   Some say Jackson.  Some say Rudolph.    One or more of those opinions will turn out to be correct, and several likely will turn out to be wrong, and there is no way to tell who's right from any of these discussions.   

 

However, I do think a few things:

 

A lot of the metrics keep pointing to Mayfield.   Doesn't mean he's the guy, but I'm sure none of the teams looking for a QB is overlooking him.   There is only one reason Mayfield will fall in the draft, and it's the same reason any of these other guys may fall in the draft:  teams with access to a lot of film, data, interviews, etc. will all decide that the guy has enough questions about him not to merit a pick in the top 5 or 10.

 

Parcells and QBase put a lot of weight on QBs graduating from college, starting for three years, posting a lot of wins, as well as accuracy.  For whatever reason, it's apparently the case that very few guys who started two years or less turn out to be great in the NFL.   Newton has come closest, and Flacco is the only other one who's had any substantial success of any kind.  

 

I'm confused and frustrated, and like Logic, I'm finding it nerve-wracking waiting for the draft.  

[jrober38]

6 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

All I am saying is Stanford had a 57.1% rate in college and Allen is a 56% passer. I think they both had some issues with accuracy in college. 

 

Their scouting reports tell a different story.

There's a reason no one looks at a box score to try and figure out who the best QB is. 

[Shaw66]

48 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Completion percentage has little to do with accuracy. 

You've been an accuracy guy for as long as I can remember, and you've convinced me.  

 

But let's not go overboard.   Completion percentage isn't a measure of accuracy, but to to say it has little to do with accuracy is, well, inaccurate.  

 

It may be true that some accurate throwers have low completion percentages for a game or maybe even a season.   But virtually NO thrower with a high completion percentage for a season is inaccurate.   You simple can't complete 60-65% of 500 passes if you're a fundamentally inaccurate passer.  

 

Completion percentage is the only common stat that correlates in some way with accuracy.  

[racketmaster]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Their scouting reports tell a different story.

There's a reason no one looks at a box score to try and figure out who the best QB is. 

I guess we can agree to disagree. However, I still think it is absolutely preposterous to think Allen is a 3rd or 4th round qb prospect. 

[jrober38]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You've been an accuracy guy for as long as I can remember, and you've convinced me.  

 

But let's not go overboard.   Completion percentage isn't a measure of accuracy, but to to say it has little to do with accuracy is, well, inaccurate.  

 

It may be true that some accurate throwers have low completion percentages for a game or maybe even a season.   But virtually NO thrower with a high completion percentage for a season is inaccurate.   You simple can't complete 60-65% of 500 passes if you're a fundamentally inaccurate passer.  

 

Completion percentage is the only common stat that correlates in some way with accuracy.  

 

I was talking about college QBs.

 

EJ Manuel completed 68% of his throws his Senior year, and he's one of the most inaccurate QBs I've ever seen in the NFL. 

 

[HappyDays]

41 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

Allen basically checks every box except the accuracy as judged by completion %

 

This is definitely not true. He throws a lot of interceptable balls, he panics under pressure, he makes bad decisions and bad throws when forced to move beyond his first read, he has very poor ball placement and touch at every level of the field, he attempts throws that he has no business making... Literally he checks 2 boxes - strong arm and prototypical size. Every other trait is a long-term project.