Thurman#1 Posted April 4, 2018 Author Posted April 4, 2018 17 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Of course he is different to EJ... EJ was 'propped up' to an extent by Florida State whereas nobody could accuse Wyoming of propping up Allen. However, I just don't think his 2016 or 2017 tape is 1st round quarterback material. I get that he is going to go in the top 10 but there is just no way you can hold his tape up to the other 3 of the 4 and say it compares. That's a fair enough opinion. Here's what I found about his pro day: "1) I can't remember a time when a quarterback prospect has done a better job in the offseason. Allen had a great performance in January at the Reese's Senior Bowl. He was the talk of the NFL Scouting Combine earlier this month with the athletic ability and arm strength he showed off in Indianapolis. On Friday, he had one of the better pro-day throwing sessions we'll see. He won the offseason. "2) Allen's footwork, accuracy and touch were improved at the pro day from what we saw him from him a few weeks ago at the combine. It was clear that he and his QB coach, Jordan Palmer, wanted to focus on touch throws in this workout, and he showed well in that area. Of course, he also showed off his cannon of a right arm. He threw fastballs with ease." ... says Daniel Jeremiah, who continues ... "I'm expecting four QBs to go in the top six picks next month, and I expect Allen to be in that group." ... and ... "I see Allen making progress. He's trending up, but he's going to need time to fully realize his potential. He needs a franchise that will be patient with him. The payoff could be huge." That's what Palmer predicted, that he'd be even better at his pro day. Palmer said their work had resulted in improvement from the season at the Senior Bowl, a lot of improvement from there at the combine and predicted still more improvement and terrific accuracy at his pro day. Lo and behold, that's what happened. Does that mean that the improvements are guaranteed to stick? Nope. But it could happen and if it does this guy could be terrific. And it seems to me that with McCarron the Bills have put themselves in a position where they can be patient with whoever they do pick.
metzelaars_lives Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 18 hours ago, NewEraBills said: Was he really? his completion percentage was a tad bit better this year. His INT were up in 2016. Here is the bottom line, in 2016 he had more attempts so he threw more INT's but his comp percentage was 56.0 I think this can't be overlooked. On 173 more attempts your comp percentage was worse. To me that's the tale of the tape. You have more attempts in 2016 your completion percentage was worse, BUT catch it only by .3. He only improved by .3 with 173 less attempts. That tells me one thing, good and Josh Allen should not go in the same sentence yet. We can leave room for him to improve and be good, but good he's not right now. I hate to be that guy but, as I've stated, I am a Wyoming fan and I have literally watched every game he's played and attended four of them. In 2016, as a sophomore and in his first season as a D1 QB, he was named the MWC first team QB and apparently played well enough to be named the MWC preseason player of the year going into 2017. He lost everyone (literally everyone) in 2017 and, as I could've told you (and was telling anyone who would listen on here before the season even started), did not have as good of a year. But believe me when I tell you he was very, very good in 2016. As far as his completion % is concerned, they throw the ball downfield and screens, checkdowns, passes to running backs, etc. are NOT a part of their offense. For example, in 2016, Brian Hill, who was like 3rd or 4th in the country in rushing and now on the Bengals, caught like nine passes all season (look it up). He is going to be good. And drawing comparisons between him and EJ freaking Manuel coming out of college is utterly absurd. Edited April 4, 2018 by metzelaars_lives 1
NewEraBills Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said: I hate to be that guy but, as I've stated, I am a Wyoming fan and I have literally watched every game he's played and attended four of them. In 2016, as a sophomore and in his first season as a D1 QB, he was named the MWC first team QB and apparently played well enough to be named the MWC preseason player of the year going into 2017. He lost everyone (literally everyone) in 2017 and, as I could've told you (and was telling anyone who would listen on here before the season even started), did not have as good of a year. But believe me when I tell you he was very, very good in 2016. As far as his completion % is concerned, they throw the ball downfield and screens, checkdowns, passes to running backs, etc. are NOT a part of their offense. For example, in 2016, Brian Hill, who was like 3rd or 4th in the country in rushing and now on the Bengals, caught like nine passes all season (look it up). He is going to be good. And drawing comparisons between him and EJ freaking Manuel coming out of college is utterly absurd. Man I know what his offense is. I've said it in other threads. So I'm not uninformed. I never drew a comparison to him and EJ. All I did was basically echo what Brian Billick has said. There are some concerns that you just cannot look past as a top 5 pick. Here's the thing that gets me: I've watched several of Allen's games and part of his inaccuracy from my perspective is he just hasn't learned when to take heat off of passes. Secondly, I don't buy him losing guys as the sole reason for the completion percentage because if that were the case then why is it that his comp percentage is actually .3 higher with the loss of those guys than it was with him with those guys? It can't be because he lost them, his comp numbers don't show that. Allen might end up being good and as I said in another thread, I'm rooting for him because there is so much against him, but to me he's not the QB that the Buffalo Bills need. The Bills need someone who can come in and compete for the starting job NOW. Allen is not that guy.
Thurman#1 Posted April 4, 2018 Author Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 12:24 AM, D521646 said: To me, this whole Josh Allen hype/speculation is all nonsense. NFL teams know (Or have very good data on this guy) what they have in him. I see it like this: He's the second QB in after the starter goes two one or two series in NFL preseason. Sure, the number 2 guy is going against number 2 defenses, but the data pulled from this determines who starts and who sits when it's go time. His career in college was NOT GREAT, lets be honest. Lesser caliber competition, perhaps lesser weapons, sure, but to me a franchise QB elevates everyone on the team. I don't or didn't see that with him, and still don't. He is a better bet to be a bust than he is to be a quality starter in the NFL. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. Tim- I don't know whether Allen will succeed or be a bust. But he didn't raise the level of the guys around him? Wyoming played 13 games this year, 11 with Allen and 2 without him. In the two games without Allen, their offense scored seven points and seventeen points. That was against Fresno State and 17 against San Jose State. San Jose State was 2-11 and allowed 54 points per game and 499 yards per game ... and yet they only allowed the Allen-less Cowboys 17 points and Fresno won. Allen certainly elevated that team. With him, 7-3, without him 0-2. 4 minutes ago, NewEraBills said: Man I know what his offense is. I've said it in other threads. So I'm not uninformed. I never drew a comparison to him and EJ. All I did was basically echo what Brian Billick has said. There are some concerns that you just cannot look past as a top 5 pick. Here's the thing that gets me: I've watched several of Allen's games and part of his inaccuracy from my perspective is he just hasn't learned when to take heat off of passes. Secondly, I don't buy him losing guys as the sole reason for the completion percentage because if that were the case then why is it that his comp percentage is actually .3 higher with the loss of those guys than it was with him with those guys? It can't be because he lost them, his comp numbers don't show that. Allen might end up being good and as I said in another thread, I'm rooting for him because there is so much against him, but to me he's not the QB that the Buffalo Bills need. The Bills need someone who can come in and compete for the starting job NOW. Allen is not that guy. They have McCarron, they won't have a problem sitting whoever they draft for at least a year. I think you're right that Allen should sit for at least a year. But the Bills can do that. I haven't watched much of him, but it's exactly his mechanics, his accuracy and his ability on touch passes that he has so much improved this offseason. I'm not pounding the table for him, but I am saying there's a legit argument for him. 21 hours ago, thebandit27 said: The problem is that you aren't really living in reality if you think you can wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to take a chance on a guy like Allen. You either like him enough to take him in round 1 or you aren't taking him, because there's almost no chance that 32 teams are passing on him in round 1. As I've said multiple times in this thread: if you believe that his issues aren't correctable, then you don't draft him. Period. His issues don't all of a sudden become more correctable at pick 50 versus pick 5. Yes. Agreed. He won't be around late. And if you don't think his issues are correctable you don't draft him.
HappyDays Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: He won't be around late. And if you don't think his issues are correctable you don't draft him. His issues are potentially correctable, just not to a degree where I'd feel comfortable taking him in the 1st. I'd take him in the 2nd or not at all. By your logic you'd never draft anyone you didn't have a 1st round grade on.
Thurman#1 Posted April 4, 2018 Author Posted April 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, HappyDays said: His issues are potentially correctable, just not to a degree where I'd feel comfortable taking him in the 1st. I'd take him in the 2nd or not at all. By your logic you'd never draft anyone you didn't have a 1st round grade on. No, that's not my logic. Again, I'm not pounding the table for him, but he's going to get taken in the top ten and it's very understandable why.
thebandit27 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 52 minutes ago, HappyDays said: His issues are potentially correctable, just not to a degree where I'd feel comfortable taking him in the 1st. I'd take him in the 2nd or not at all. By your logic you'd never draft anyone you didn't have a 1st round grade on. It was my statement, and it's close to how I feel. I would probably state it this way: If a guy has the potential to be a franchise QB, then he's a 1st round pick If a guy has the potential to be a middling starter--a guy that you can win with for a year or two as long as the rest of the team is very strong around him--then I'd consider him a day 2 pick If a guy has the potential to be a long-term backup, then he's a day 3 pick
GoBills808 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 40 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: No, that's not my logic. Again, I'm not pounding the table for him, but he's going to get taken in the top ten and it's very understandable why. You need to look at these kind of picks with an eye toward cost/benefit. With the rookie wage scale and modern free agency it’s a lot more attractive to take a risk on a QB with the kind of upside Allen has. It’s not simply a matter of will he/won’t he bust. I mean overall sure, that’s the question, but factor in the value of finding your once-in-a-generation guy and the fact that missing on a first rounder isn’t the same 3-5 year sinkhole it once was..imo it becomes a lot more attractive.
GunnerBill Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 1 hour ago, metzelaars_lives said: I hate to be that guy but, as I've stated, I am a Wyoming fan and I have literally watched every game he's played and attended four of them. In 2016, as a sophomore and in his first season as a D1 QB, he was named the MWC first team QB and apparently played well enough to be named the MWC preseason player of the year going into 2017. He lost everyone (literally everyone) in 2017 and, as I could've told you (and was telling anyone who would listen on here before the season even started), did not have as good of a year. But believe me when I tell you he was very, very good in 2016. As far as his completion % is concerned, they throw the ball downfield and screens, checkdowns, passes to running backs, etc. are NOT a part of their offense. For example, in 2016, Brian Hill, who was like 3rd or 4th in the country in rushing and now on the Bengals, caught like nine passes all season (look it up). He is going to be good. And drawing comparisons between him and EJ freaking Manuel coming out of college is utterly absurd. And I think as a result Metz you are not totally objective about this. He is clearly the best QB Wyoming has had in probably forever... and he is a genuine NFL Quarterback prospect. But I just don't know how you can hold even his 2016 tape against the tape of the guys he is being compared to and say "that guy is as accurate with the football, that guy makes as many anticipatory throws, that guy plays with as much poise". There just isn't as much on film from either year that I have seen to say this guy should be taken in the top 10 of the NFL draft. I know how big positional value is and he is definitely being "pumped up" as a result but I do not think the issues are just on the talent around him. They clearly are not. And on the flip side to those he is playing with what about the people he is playing against? Most of them are not going to see a down of football in their lives once they leave college either. I don't hate Josh Allen, I don't think he has no chance in the NFL..... I just think based on what I saw in the games I went back and watched he is a developmental Quarterback. The upside is obvious.... but to me the floor is obvious well and is not pretty. 1
metzelaars_lives Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 52 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: And I think as a result Metz you are not totally objective about this. He is clearly the best QB Wyoming has had in probably forever... and he is a genuine NFL Quarterback prospect. But I just don't know how you can hold even his 2016 tape against the tape of the guys he is being compared to and say "that guy is as accurate with the football, that guy makes as many anticipatory throws, that guy plays with as much poise". There just isn't as much on film from either year that I have seen to say this guy should be taken in the top 10 of the NFL draft. I know how big positional value is and he is definitely being "pumped up" as a result but I do not think the issues are just on the talent around him. They clearly are not. And on the flip side to those he is playing with what about the people he is playing against? Most of them are not going to see a down of football in their lives once they leave college either. I don't hate Josh Allen, I don't think he has no chance in the NFL..... I just think based on what I saw in the games I went back and watched he is a developmental Quarterback. The upside is obvious.... but to me the floor is obvious well and is not pretty. He makes throws that no one else makes. Look at his first TD pass in the bowl game against Central Michigan. There aren't five QB's in the NFL that can make that throw. He was an A in his bowl game, an A at the Senior Bowl and an A+ at the combine. Also, I feel like not enough people are taking into consideration the fact that, outside of Lamar Jackson, he is far and away the best running QB of the top 6. He is fast, strong, and extremely elusive and hard to bring down. He is a team player and has a tremendous attitude. Never once did he make excuses after losing his top two RB's, top two WR's, his TE and his starting C (four of whom were active NFL players last season) after 2016. And I disagree, I think his 2016 game tape speaks for itself. I am so sick of people talking about what he did in 2017 (which, again, I could've told you his numbers would regress) and acting like 2016 never happened. He was really, really good that year. Were all his skill position players juniors that year and seniors this past year, we'd be talking about the slam dunk #1 pick and the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck.
Mat68 Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, NewEraBills said: Man I know what his offense is. I've said it in other threads. So I'm not uninformed. I never drew a comparison to him and EJ. All I did was basically echo what Brian Billick has said. There are some concerns that you just cannot look past as a top 5 pick. Here's the thing that gets me: I've watched several of Allen's games and part of his inaccuracy from my perspective is he just hasn't learned when to take heat off of passes. Secondly, I don't buy him losing guys as the sole reason for the completion percentage because if that were the case then why is it that his comp percentage is actually .3 higher with the loss of those guys than it was with him with those guys? It can't be because he lost them, his comp numbers don't show that. Allen might end up being good and as I said in another thread, I'm rooting for him because there is so much against him, but to me he's not the QB that the Buffalo Bills need. The Bills need someone who can come in and compete for the starting job NOW. Allen is not that guy. You are right. I think the thing with Allen that makes teams optimistic is that he is not some well oiled Qb. He is not an elite 11 Qb prospect that has gone to every QB camp since he was 12. Allen appears to be a natural talent. Working with Palmer he is learning and being taught how to make different throws, and why your feet is tied to accuracy. This in the end is all about ego and potential. The ego is that of the coaches. The potential is simply, watch Allen's best 50 throws. Those are by far the best in the class. A coach will have his staff get Allen to do that all the time. None of the Qbs are slam dunks most evaluators are going to give the coaches the guy with the most ability, it the coaches job to get that out of him. Edited April 4, 2018 by Mat68
GunnerBill Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 4 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said: He makes throws that no one else makes. Look at his first TD pass in the bowl game against Central Michigan. There aren't five QB's in the NFL that can make that throw. He was an A in his bowl game, an A at the Senior Bowl and an A+ at the combine. Also, I feel like not enough people are taking into consideration the fact that, outside of Lamar Jackson, he is far and away the best running QB of the top 6. He is fast, strong, and extremely elusive and hard to bring down. He is a team player and has a tremendous attitude. Never once did he make excuses after losing his top two RB's, top two WR's, his TE and his starting C (four of whom were active NFL players last season) after 2016. And I disagree, I think his 2016 game tape speaks for itself. I am so sick of people talking about what he did in 2017 (which, again, I could've told you his numbers would regress) and acting like 2016 never happened. He was really, really good that year. Were all his skill position players juniors that year and seniors this past year, we'd be talking about the slam dunk #1 pick and the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. I am sorry I just don't agree. He has the arm that nobody else has... but make the throws that nobody else does? It is just not true. Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold and even to a lesser extent Baker Mayfield make anticipatory throws that are not there on Allen's tape.... in either year. If you are asking who has the best arm in this class it is without doubt Josh Allen. But even on his 2016 tape I don't see the throws that make him a top 10 type Quarterback. I am not acting like 2016 didn't happen I watched three full 2016 games and watched two of them twice. He was inaccurate in those games. It isn't his fully on the talent around him. It is partly on him too. I am not saying he has no chance... and if he is good he will be really good. I just think he is no more than a coin flip at this stage and the same as I said about Mahomes last year he absolutely needs to sit for a year. 1
Brand J Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 PFF chart also posted in the other Allen thread. Yikes.
metzelaars_lives Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, GunnerBill said: I am sorry I just don't agree. He has the arm that nobody else has... but make the throws that nobody else does? It is just not true. Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold and even to a lesser extent Baker Mayfield make anticipatory throws that are not there on Allen's tape.... in either year. If you are asking who has the best arm in this class it is without doubt Josh Allen. But even on his 2016 tape I don't see the throws that make him a top 10 type Quarterback. I am not acting like 2016 didn't happen I watched three full 2016 games and watched two of them twice. He was inaccurate in those games. It isn't his fully on the talent around him. It is partly on him too. I am not saying he has no chance... and if he is good he will be really good. I just think he is no more than a coin flip at this stage and the same as I said about Mahomes last year he absolutely needs to sit for a year. Look at the throw he made across his body while on the run like 60 yards downfield to Mulhaurdt against San Diego St in 2016 (I was at that game). Look at each of the three TD passes in his bowl game this past season. Each of the three is unique and shows a different side of what he does well: the first one is an absolute laser that, again, very few NFL QB's could make right now; the second one he escapes a bunch of pressure and makes an improvisational throw on the run; and the third one is a rainbow bomb that hits the receiver perfectly in stride. Sorry, it was to Hollister. Hey everyone, if you want to see the exact game when Allen emerged as a top overall prospect, here it is. For all the doubters, please watch the throw he makes at the 5:50 mark and tell me who else makes that throw. Thank you. Edited April 4, 2018 by metzelaars_lives
GunnerBill Posted April 4, 2018 Posted April 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said: Look at the throw he made across his body while on the run like 60 yards downfield to Mulhaurdt against San Diego St in 2016 (I was at that game). Look at each of the three TD passes in his bowl game this past season. Each of the three is unique and shows a different side of what he does well: the first one is an absolute laser that, again, very few NFL QB's could make right now; the second one he escapes a bunch of pressure and makes an improvisational throw on the run; and the third one is a rainbow bomb that hits the receiver perfectly in stride. Seen all those throws. The across his body throw is all arm no technique. He does that in the NFL its going the other way. The third throw is a classic NFL throw.... there are countless of those on the Rosen and Darnold tape. His tape just doesn't match up. 1
metzelaars_lives Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: Seen all those throws. The across his body throw is all arm no technique. He does that in the NFL its going the other way. The third throw is a classic NFL throw.... there are countless of those on the Rosen and Darnold tape. His tape just doesn't match up. Just updated my post. Look at the throw he makes at 5:50. Who else makes that throw??
GunnerBill Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said: Just updated my post. Look at the throw he makes at 5:50. Who else makes that throw?? Those sorts of improv plays are all over Mayfield and Darnold's tape. And it isn't a good process throw. Is Allen capable of the huge play? Yes. Is he capable of the down by down process that makes a top flight NFL Quarterback? I remain utterly unconvinced.
Green Lightning Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 On 4/3/2018 at 7:47 AM, Coach Tuesday said: Just because it can be explained doesn't mean it can be corrected. It's that simple. Can he make quick decisions under pressure and get the ball out accurately? We have no idea, because he's never shown he can do it. Ever. If I'm a GM with my job on the line, I'd prefer to have an idea. Well put. There's not too many college quarterbacks that can be fixed after throwing one way all their lives. Not saying it doesn't happen, it does but not liking the odds. Rather go with somebody who's inherently accurate right from the get-go like Mayfield.
billsredneck1 Posted April 5, 2018 Posted April 5, 2018 On 4/3/2018 at 9:38 AM, jrober38 said: A 3rd or 4th round pick. Josh Allen isn't even remotely close to being a serviceable NFL QB right now. He needs to get a lot better, learn how to read a defense and go through progressions, and completely refine his accuracy in live situations. His path to success is extremely narrow. A ton of things need to happen for him to get to the point where he can actually function on an NFL field, and the odds of all those things happening is extremely slim. This is the reason why guys with accuracy and decision making issues don't last in the NFL for very long as anything more than 3rd string QBs. Boller, Losman, Freeman, Locker, etc all bounced around the league as camp arms after their rookie deals expired, because they still aren't able to do the things needed to keep their team competitive if they're asked to play. The talk of Allen going top 5 is insane. He's far and away the least accurate QB in the draft, but because he can throw it 80 yards people think he has upside. It makes no sense whatsoever. the bolded just struck something with me. from now on when i think about qb prospects, i will ask myself.... can this guy come in at least, at some point in year one and competently start? if i think the answer is yes, then in my mind he is a 1st rd. pick....so rosen....yes darnold...yes mayfield...yes rudolph...borderline 1-2 allen ...at least 2 full yrs. before starting material. 1
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