Jordan Palmer on Josh Allen

[starrymessenger]

Of course I don't know for sure but my impression is that Allen can probably improve on his accuracy. When in a clean pocket with time to set up his mechanics looked pretty decent to me so I would not be surprised if Palmer is right in saying that he needs minor adjustments/tidying up rather than a complete rebuild/overhaul. There is also this thing about the  real meaning of "inaccuracy". Allen is arguably not inaccurate, rather he is perhaps more "inconsistent". I think there is a meaningful distinction there to be drawn (even if that can be debated). In all of the game tape and live action I have seen, Allen makes some very difficult throws with perfect ball placement and also with remarkable touch (for a guy who is supposed to have none). He just doesn't do it enuf or as often as one would like, and just as often shows the contrary. 

The question I have is more related to skittishness in the pocket and decision making. Here again though it is possible that he is overreacting to his weak O-line when he bails early, and many plays looked to me like jail breaks, and trying to do too much under pressure. 

So he is rough around the edges to be sure and almost completely devoid of refinement. All that you mostly notice is his jaw dropping physical talent. Bottom line is that if he can be developed the sky is the limit, though he needs to go to the right team. Without a top shelf QB coach I tend to doubt that would be the Bills but if he is the pick I will have no problem getting begind him and regardless of where he winds up I'll be intrigued to see how he pans out. 

I would not myself move up for him but if the other frontrunners are off the board I would not be upset if he was taken at #12. I think he will go before that however.

[BillsFan17]

1 hour ago, NewEraBills said:

 

 

I think Billick is just trying to say look, folks, there are red flags here that you would do best to pay attention to.  The Ravens took Boller in the teens.  Allen is being considered a top 5 or even 3 pick off of the same traits that Boller had, namely a frame and a strong arm.

 

Honestly, because there are so many factors that historically count against Allen being great, I'm actually rooting for the guy.  I hope he bucks the trend.  I'd be scared as hell to take him though.

To be fair we have seen the trend go more in favor of Allen types. Gabbert is a perfect example, as is Losman. Hell Losman never completed more than 60% of his passes at Tulane when throwing for more than 50 attempts, but he could launch the ball like nobody's business.

 

People always fall in love with the big arm and the measurables to go along with it.

 

If anything Allen failing will be more "I told you so" and his success will be more, well, see we can get one of these right every once and awhile.

 

Either way, seeing people continue to blame the talent around him for his failure.

 

Seems similar to the argument I had about Watson having too much of a supporting cast and being on such a powerhouse that he wont have that in the NFL to mask his weak arm.

[TigerJ]

3 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

He does have a financial interest even if it is indirect.  He wants his students drafted high for the future of his business/reputation.  I'm not saying he is wrong, just that your statement about his interest is incomplete.

The financial factor will be little affected by what he says about Allen.  It will be affected by what Josh Allen does when he gets on the field in the NFL.  His next crop of potential prospect customers will be watching this fall to see what Allen does.

[HappyDays]

Jordan Palmer was so bad he couldn't replace EJ Manuel in the London game. He's being paid by Josh Allen. So his opinion doesn't mean anything to me. Manuel did the same thing every offseason, got with some "QB guru" that praised him for his progress. If becoming more accurate was simply a matter of practice there would be 32 quality starters in the NFL. Unfortunately some guys just don't have it no matter how hard they work and I would bet a lot of money Allen is one of those guys.

[metzelaars_lives]

3 hours ago, ganesh said:

Agreed. They said the same things for EJ Manuel.  Bad receivers on the team...blah..blah.

Josh. Allen. Was. Good. In. 2016.

 

You're talking about a guy who could go first overall in a good draft vs. a guy who was slated to and should've gone in the third round in the worst draft in modern NFL history.  Such an incredibly lazy comparison.  Do you have any idea how much more gifted Josh Allen is than EJ Manuel??

 

[jr1]

there's no excuse for having a bad completion percentage when defenders are flagged so often 

[hemma]

I think any comparison between this guy and Jamarcus Russell is a bit harsh.

 

Russell must have had one of the worst work ethics possible, not to mention an eating disorder.

Guy was a complete mess.

 

[D521646]

To me, this whole Josh Allen hype/speculation is all nonsense.  NFL teams know (Or have very good data on this guy) what they have in him.  I see it like this:  He's the second QB in after the starter goes two one or two series in NFL preseason.  Sure, the number 2 guy is going against number 2 defenses, but the data pulled from this determines who starts and who sits when it's go time.  His career in college was NOT GREAT, lets be honest.  Lesser caliber competition, perhaps lesser weapons, sure, but to me a franchise QB elevates everyone on the team.  I don't or didn't see that with him, and still don't.  He is a better bet to be a bust than he is to be a quality starter in the NFL.  I could be wrong, but I doubt it. 

 

 

Tim-

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

Do they throw a lot of passes behind the line of scrimmage?  How often do they throw the ball down the field?  The talent of their WRs

 

We have answers to these questions:

 

https://d3d2maoophos6y.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/25/2018/03/30195527/2018-Contextualized-Quarterbacking2.pdf

 

That scouting report evaluated 13 QBs in the upcoming draft based on accuracy and ball placement, not completion percentage. They methodically looked at every throw one at a time. Josh Allen had the worst accuracy and ball placement out of all 13 QBs. He was the least accurate on throws both behind the line of scrimmage AND beyond the line of scrimmage.

 

On throws 20+ yards down the field he was the 2nd least accurate out of all 13 QBs. Having a cannon for an arm didn't help him deliver the ball where it needed to be.

 

His receivers had the LOWEST drop rate out of all 13 QBs. That excuse would apply much more to Lamar Jackson who had more than double the drop rate Josh Allen had. If I was going for a project QB he would be my pick.

[prissythecat]

20 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Josh. Allen. Was. Good. In. 2016.

 

You're talking about a guy who could go first overall in a good draft vs. a guy who was slated to and should've gone in the third round in the worst draft in modern NFL history.  Such an incredibly lazy comparison.  Do you have any idea how much more gifted Josh Allen is than EJ Manuel??

 

 

C'mon man.  You should know how gifted EJ really was after seeing how many folks here went up to bat for him when he was seemingly being marginalized by Bills ;-)         EJ was ruined by Marrone and all he needed was a fresh start to light it up.

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

That guy who praised Jordan Palmers footwork doesn’t seem so silly anymore.  

 

 

yeah because.....

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Jordan Palmer was so bad he couldn't replace EJ Manuel in the London game. He's being paid by Josh Allen. So his opinion doesn't mean anything to me. Manuel did the same thing every offseason, got with some "QB guru" that praised him for his progress. If becoming more accurate was simply a matter of practice there would be 32 quality starters in the NFL. Unfortunately some guys just don't have it no matter how hard they work and I would bet a lot of money Allen is one of those guys.

How a player played in the pros or even the college ranks has little to do how good a coach he is. The paradox is that the less talented players usually are better than the talented players. Any coach working with any qb preparing for the draft is going to be paid. It's a job. So that shouldn't disqualify what he says about a player. But it shouldn't be the primary source when evaluating a player. 

 

Would Allen be my first choice for a qb? No. Would I move up to get him? Probably not unless the price was paltry. Would I seriously consider him if he was on the board at the 12 spot? Yes, with the recognition that he was a talented player who was in the developmental category i.e. won't see the field his first year. 

 

If you are going to gamble on a player then gamble on a player with talent. 

[thebandit27]

5 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

All I'm seeing here is that they've liked a bunch of guys who are busts. 

 

As I've been saying, neither Kiper or Mayock know anything about how to evaluate a QB. 

 

Nope, that's a blatant mischaracterization of the response.

 

Mayock had Wentz as his QB1 in 2016; he's not a bust.  He had Watson as his QB1 in 2017; he's not a bust.

 

Neither of the guys he had rated as his top 2 QBs in 2015--Mariota and Winston--should be considered busts to this point.

 

Has he had QBs rated as his QB1 that went on to be busts?  Yes, so has everyone else.

 

Again, criticize the QB on the merits--there's no reason to make things up.

[Scorp83]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Sounds like more of the same excuses again. There is inaccuracy on tape that is not a result of his receivers or his coaching. 

 

Josh Allen doesn't suck as a Quarterback prospect but there is simply far too many question marks and far too much projection for me to believe that any team taking him in the first (and I think he will go top 10) is making a wise move. It essentially turns your 1st round pick into a coin flip. 

 

I should say the technical stuff is interesting. I will have a look back when I have some time for the subtle overstride Palmer talks about because there were throws I saw where there was nothing obviously mechnically wrong but Jordan Palmer has played QB in the NFL and I haven't so it is very possible he picked up on something I missed. 

 

Even so.... I am now being asked to take Jordan Palmer's word for it that the very subtle mechnical flaw that caused natural inacurracy in college has been fixed by reps against air without the heat of battle since the season ended? More projection... more take on trust. This is not what I am looking for when I spend my 1st round pick. 

That's the main knock on Allen... the fact he is considered a 1st Rd pick... top 5 at that... with all the questions. Wentz was from a small school but he check the boxes of everything your looking for in a franchise QB. Wentz didn't have all the questions & concerns that follow Allen. Yet, you have some that want to ignore these risks... & still bet on him correcting alot of his issues. You do that in the 2nd or 3rd rd, not the 1st.

6 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Just because it can be explained doesn't mean it can be corrected.  It's that simple.  Can he make quick decisions under pressure and get the ball out accurately?  We have no idea, because he's never shown he can do it.  Ever.  If I'm a GM with my job on the line, I'd prefer to have an idea.

????  Right!

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:

That's the main knock on Allen... the fact he is considered a 1st Rd pick... top 5 at that... with all the questions. Wentz was from a small school but he check the boxes of everything your looking for in a franchise QB. Wentz didn't have all the questions & concerns that follow Allen. Yet, you have some that want to ignore these risks... & still bet on him correcting alot of his issues. You do that in the 2nd or 3rd rd, not the 1st.

 

 

The problem is that you aren't really living in reality if you think you can wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to take a chance on a guy like Allen. You either like him enough to take him in round 1 or you aren't taking him, because there's almost no chance that 32 teams are passing on him in round 1.

 

As I've said multiple times in this thread: if you believe that his issues aren't correctable, then you don't draft him.  Period. His issues don't all of a sudden become more correctable at pick 50 versus pick 5.

[NewEraBills]

5 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Josh. Allen. Was. Good. In. 2016.

 

You're talking about a guy who could go first overall in a good draft vs. a guy who was slated to and should've gone in the third round in the worst draft in modern NFL history.  Such an incredibly lazy comparison.  Do you have any idea how much more gifted Josh Allen is than EJ Manuel??

 

 

 

Was he really?  his completion percentage was a tad bit better this year.  His INT were up in 2016.  Here is the bottom line, in 2016 he had more attempts so he threw more INT's but his comp percentage was 56.0  I think this can't be overlooked.  On 173 more attempts your comp percentage was worse.  To me that's the tale of the tape.  You have more attempts in 2016 your completion percentage was worse, BUT catch it only by .3.  He only improved by .3 with 173 less attempts.  That tells me one thing, good and Josh Allen should not go in the same sentence yet.  We can leave room for him to improve and be good, but good he's not right now.

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:

Josh. Allen. Was. Good. In. 2016.

 

You're talking about a guy who could go first overall in a good draft vs. a guy who was slated to and should've gone in the third round in the worst draft in modern NFL history.  Such an incredibly lazy comparison.  Do you have any idea how much more gifted Josh Allen is than EJ Manuel??

 

 

Of course he is different to EJ... EJ was 'propped up' to an extent by Florida State whereas nobody could accuse Wyoming of propping up Allen. 

 

However, I just don't think his 2016 or 2017 tape is 1st round quarterback material. I get that he is going to go in the top 10 but there is just no way you can hold his tape up to the other 3 of the 4 and say it compares. 

[Scorp83]

10 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The problem is that you aren't really living in reality if you think you can wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to take a chance on a guy like Allen. You either like him enough to take him in round 1 or you aren't taking him, because there's almost no chance that 32 teams are passing on him in round 1.

 

As I've said multiple times in this thread: if you believe that his issues aren't correctable, then you don't draft him.  Period. His issues don't all of a sudden become more correctable at pick 50 versus pick 5.

That's not what I meant... I was pretty much saying. He should go in the 2nd or 3rd rd. I know that's not happening... it's just crazy that he's being considered a 1st Rd pick. I wouldn't take him at all... not even in the 3rd, but again the risk is much better in that rd...whereas the 1st, is extremely risky...

[transplantbillsfan]

I'd still challenge anyone to find a QB with such a comparatively crappy completion % on a crappy team against crappy competition in the last 30 years who went in the 1st round.

 

When I say comparatively, I mean consider what other QBs in that time are doing in terms of passing, too.

 

Hell you probably have to go back to Phil Simms to find the only really relevant example when he was drafted 7th 39 years ago.

 

Brett Favre went in the 2nd round... poor team that drafted him didn't even reap the benefits.

 

Matt Ryan had a significantly higher completion % than Allen 10 years ago and improved every year against Division I ACC teams.

 

Matthew Stafford might have ended his college career with only a slightly higher completion % than Allen but unlike Allen, Stafford improved significantly every single year as a starter against high level SEC competition.

 

 

Where is any of this for Allen? 3rd round project QB I'd absolutely get behind. Maybe even overdraft in the 2nd round because he does have the potential to be a Franchise QB. But you draft a QB in the top 10 of the 1st round because you're utterly confident he's going to be a Franchise QB, not because of his potential to be one.

Edited April 4, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[#34fan]

Who cares what a FORMER suck-butt QB thinks about a FUTURE suck-butt QB.