Jordan Palmer on Josh Allen

[Thurman#1]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/21/themmqb-podcast-peter-king-bears-head-coach-matt-nagy-jordan-palmer-quarterback-coach-sam-darnold

 

At about 1:06:30

 

Worth noting that Palmer has no financial interest in any of the QBs he works with, but he's been working with Darnold and Allen very extensively.

 

By the way, I tried to find if this had been written about, I searched the boards, couldn't find anything. If this has already been posted, I apologize. Anyway ...

 

King:  "Josh Allen completed 56% of his passes at Wyoming in his career. In 1987 that might've been pretty good. In 2017, that stinks. So what did you do with him and what gives you any reason to think that he's going to be a more accurate pro than he was collegian?"

 

Palmer:  "It's a good question and I'll start by saying I'm a guy that believes that the most important thing you've got to do in football as a quarterback you've got to be accurate and you've got to be a guy who can complete balls. And the other thing is I don't really care if you have a giant arm. Because most of the balls that are thrown in the league are ... I call them layers ... you're layering it in there. You don't throw the ball as hard as you can every play.

 

"With that being said, when I dug deeper on Josh, you know I've seen every play a bunch of times and I've spent a ton of time with him. And I really know the story, like way more than any front office does, just because of the exposure that I've had to it. I look at it two ways. You look at the 56% completion percentage ... there's what he's doing with the ball and there's what's on the receiving end.

 

"And what's happening on the receiving end at Wyoming ... he wouldn't say any of this stuff, I can just call a spade a spade, and the front office guys that are watching this tape, they're going to see it too. There's a lot of discrepancies around depth and the angle and some of those guys couldn't catch it (inaudible) throw the ball hard.

 

"And they had to manufacture completions and they weren't the best team on the field every week. They have a great coaching staff, they have a couple really good players, but Josh is running around trying to make plays. So when you don't have timing and separation ... I'm not saying everybody has to be open every play but when you don't have timing and separation it causes you to wait to see it open and then throw it late.

 

"And when you couple those two things together and he has a bazooka attached to his shoulder, they're not in an offense where they're trying to get as many completions as they can and kick bubble screens the whole time. One of the things that manipulates what you just said about 1983 versus now is the amount of essentially handoffs that are completed in college football. The swings, the bubbles the (nows?) the quick slants, they didn't have a lot of those, so that right now is going to trim down some completions right there.

 

"And then on Josh's end, the part that he has to own is his inaccuracy a lot of it was tied to a couple of mechanical things. The root of it, though, mechanics-wise was the base. So when you watch him on tape next time ... what you'll see is he'll get up on his toes and bounce and immediately take a big front stride with his left foot. I call it an overstride. When you overstride it puts you in a position where you can do a couple of things wrong now. You can lean a little too much, you can not bring your hip through so you're going to bend forward. and when you do either of those two things your elbow is going to drop and your release point is going to lower and it's going to be hard to put touch on it."

 

...

 

"To boil it down there was two things happening. On the receiving end, there's a lack of continuity, a lack of timing and a lack of separation. On Josh's end, he was putting himself in a position mechanically where he was overstriding and it was causing him to miss.

 

"We've addressed the overstride. You saw it a little bit in Mobile you saw it a lot more in Indianapolis and we're going to see it a ton on Friday in Wyoming. I think he'll only miss two or three throws on Friday out of 70. And he's going to be throwing to guys at the next level where it's going to be (inaudible) on timing and accuracy and separation. 

 

"So, I'm big on ... I wanna see a guy who can complete balls. And I don't care about arm talent. But this dude is probably as talented an arm as I've ever seen. And I've seen him throw a lot in three months. And over the next couple of years you're going to see a guy who's going to be deadly accurate. I think he's going to be a superstar."

 

 

 

To me, there's always been a weird disconnect between the obvious completion percentage problem and the way that the pundits and scouts and sources talk about him. And this strikes me as the likely reason why.

 

I've always had real questions about him and hoped the Bills would avoid him. I no longer feel that way. 

 

But feel free to disagree.  :-)

 

It's certainly a really interesting segment with Jordan Palmer, with a lot on Darnold and a lot on QBing in general.

 

 

Edited April 3, 2018 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

Sounds like more of the same excuses again. There is inaccuracy on tape that is not a result of his receivers or his coaching. 

 

Josh Allen doesn't suck as a Quarterback prospect but there is simply far too many question marks and far too much projection for me to believe that any team taking him in the first (and I think he will go top 10) is making a wise move. It essentially turns your 1st round pick into a coin flip. 

 

I should say the technical stuff is interesting. I will have a look back when I have some time for the subtle overstride Palmer talks about because there were throws I saw where there was nothing obviously mechnically wrong but Jordan Palmer has played QB in the NFL and I haven't so it is very possible he picked up on something I missed. 

 

Even so.... I am now being asked to take Jordan Palmer's word for it that the very subtle mechnical flaw that caused natural inacurracy in college has been fixed by reps against air without the heat of battle since the season ended? More projection... more take on trust. This is not what I am looking for when I spend my 1st round pick. 

Edited April 3, 2018 by GunnerBill

[4merper4mer]

He does have a financial interest even if it is indirect.  He wants his students drafted high for the future of his business/reputation.  I'm not saying he is wrong, just that your statement about his interest is incomplete.

[Teddy KGB]

That guy who praised Jordan Palmers footwork doesn’t seem so silly anymore.  

[SouthNYfan]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Sounds like more of the same excuses again. There is inaccuracy on tape that is not a result of his receivers or his coaching. 

 

Josh Allen doesn't suck as a Quarterback prospect but there is simply far too many question marks and far too much projection for me to believe that any team taking him in the first (and I think he will go top 10) is making a wise move. It essentially turns your 1st round pick into a coin flip. 

 

I should say the technical stuff is interesting. I will have a look back when I have some time for the subtle overstride Palmer talks about because there were throws I saw where there was nothing obviously mechnically wrong but Jordan Palmer has played QB in the NFL and I haven't so it is very possible he picked up on something I missed. 

 

Even so.... I am now being asked to take Jordan Palmer's word for it that the very subtle mechnical flaw that caused natural inacurracy in college has been fixed by reps against air without the heat of battle since the season ended? More projection... more take on trust. This is not what I am looking for when I spend my 1st round pick. 

 

Random nitpicking, but do you just think Allen is a 50/50 guy to be great/terrible?

People are calling it a coinflip.

The thing with high ceiling guys is, say he only reaches 80% of his projected ceiling, isn't that still pretty good?

If he hits 60% of his potential, is that still okay too, and a decent player?

It just reminds me of a lot of the hyperbole (which I'm guilty of too at times) of a guy is either "great" or "he sucks".

There is a lot in between those two points.

Granted, with a top pick, you want him much more towards "great" than "sucks" so I get the risk with a guy like Allen who has a wide margin if possible outcomes.

Just saying, is it really a "coinflip"? Is he more like a 70/30 good/bad projection? Or a 30/70 good/bad projection? I think that depends on the evaluator, as we have seen a lot of variation in people's thoughts about him.

 

 

The second part I agree with you, with the overstride you might have missed, but I wonder if that was a big factor or not?

I'm not saying he didn't overstride, I'm just wondering, as you said, how many throws were inaccurate due to that, and how many throws where he did overstride did he actually complete?

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Random nitpicking, but do you just think Allen is a 50/50 guy to be great/terrible?

 

Yep that is pretty much what I think. I think with his natural gifts if you can get consistent accuracy then there is no way he isn't at least a franchise level top 10 NFL QB.  Equally I think if you can't it is very unlikely he is able to move the ball consistently enough to be a solid NFL starter.  I'm all for coin flips on high upside project guys.... just not in round 1 of the NFL draft. 

[mannc]

27 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/21/themmqb-podcast-peter-king-bears-head-coach-matt-nagy-jordan-palmer-quarterback-coach-sam-darnold

 

Worth noting that Palmer has no financial interest in any of the QBs he works with, but he's been working with Darnold and Allen very extensively.

 

 

How is that possible?  Is Palmer a charity operation?

[ganesh]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Sounds like more of the same excuses again. There is inaccuracy on tape that is not a result of his receivers or his coaching. 

 

Josh Allen doesn't suck as a Quarterback prospect but there is simply far too many question marks and far too much projection for me to believe that any team taking him in the first (and I think he will go top 10) is making a wise move. It essentially turns your 1st round pick into a coin flip. 

 

I should say the technical stuff is interesting. I will have a look back when I have some time for the subtle overstride Palmer talks about because there were throws I saw where there was nothing obviously mechnically wrong but Jordan Palmer has played QB in the NFL and I haven't so it is very possible he picked up on something I missed. 

 

Even so.... I am now being asked to take Jordan Palmer's word for it that the very subtle mechnical flaw that caused natural inacurracy in college has been fixed by reps against air without the heat of battle since the season ended? More projection... more take on trust. This is not what I am looking for when I spend my 1st round pick. 

Agreed. They said the same things for EJ Manuel.  Bad receivers on the team...blah..blah.

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep that is pretty much what I think. I think with his natural gifts if you can get consistent accuracy then there is no way he isn't at least a franchise level top 10 NFL QB.  Equally I think if you can't it is very unlikely he is able to move the ball consistently enough to be a solid NFL starter.  I'm all for coin flips on high upside project guys.... just not in round 1 of the NFL draft. 

Bill, historically, a 50/50 chance to be a franchise qb merits a top 3 overall pick.  “Coin flip” odds aren’t too bad in this circumstance.  How does Allen  not merit a first round pick?

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Bill, historically, a 50/50 chance to be a franchise qb merits a top 3 overall pick.  “Coin flip” odds aren’t too bad in this circumstance.  How does Allen  not merit a first round pick?

 

In my mind because the floor is so low.  To merit a 1st round pick I want to believe that even if you don't become my franchise guy you might be capable of contributing in some way.  As high as the ceiling is Allen to me the floor is total, epic level bust. You are gambling on so many levels with him the way I see it.  How many of those genuine coin flip types have worked out?  I feel like most guys who go top 10 have a higher ceiling than Josh Allen.  To me he is a project you need to sit him at least a year and you need to rebuild some of his game.  

[auburnbillsbacker]

A lot of things factor into a QBs completion percentage.  Do they throw a lot of passes behind the line of scrimmage?  How often do they throw the ball down the field?  The talent of their WRs.  Many people on here simply look at the 56% completion percentage and think they have done enough research to judge Allen.  Dig a little deeper and you still might not like him but at least then you can make an informed opinion.    

[SouthNYfan]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep that is pretty much what I think. I think with his natural gifts if you can get consistent accuracy then there is no way he isn't at least a franchise level top 10 NFL QB.  Equally I think if you can't it is very unlikely he is able to move the ball consistently enough to be a solid NFL starter.  I'm all for coin flips on high upside project guys.... just not in round 1 of the NFL draft. 

 

Interesting.

What about later in the first, if say, he's available at #12 (which he won't be) assuming we cannot trade up?

 

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In my mind because the floor is so low.  To merit a 1st round pick I want to believe that even if you don't become my franchise guy you might be capable of contributing in some way.  As high as the ceiling is Allen to me the floor is total, epic level bust. You are gambling on so many levels with him the way I see it.  How many of those genuine coin flip types have worked out?  I feel like most guys who go top 10 have a higher ceiling than Josh Allen.  To me he is a project you need to sit him at least a year and you need to rebuild some of his game.  

 

I feel you there.

I think that sometimes you have to go with the risk though.

I know it's a gamblers' mentality, but the payoff could be the next Favre instead of a mid-level, above average guy.

Again, I'm not advocating for or against the guy, but I wouldn't be upset if we took him, just like I wouldn't be upset if we took a different QB.

[hemma]

Well, if we do draft him, sounds like Palmer may end up being our QB coach.

I'd think he'd sit all year.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Interesting.

What about later in the first, if say, he's available at #12 (which he won't be) assuming we cannot trade up?

 

 

I feel you there.

I think that sometimes you have to go with the risk though.

I know it's a gamblers' mentality, but the payoff could be the next Favre instead of a mid-level, above average guy.

Again, I'm not advocating for or against the guy, but I wouldn't be upset if we took him, just like I wouldn't be upset if we took a different QB.

 

The Bills have to try and come out of the 1st round with a Quarterback.  I don't know a ton about AJ McCarron I confess but my expectations for him to be the answer for us are extremely low.  I suppose I will be less annoyed if they select Josh Allen at #12 than if they pass on Quarterbacks and take a DT and a LB at #12 and #22.  But I will not feel great about the chances that we have found our guy. 

[Coach Tuesday]

Just because it can be explained doesn't mean it can be corrected.  It's that simple.  Can he make quick decisions under pressure and get the ball out accurately?  We have no idea, because he's never shown he can do it.  Ever.  If I'm a GM with my job on the line, I'd prefer to have an idea.

[SouthNYfan]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Bills have to try and come out of the 1st round with a Quarterback.  I don't know a ton about AJ McCarron I confess but my expectations for him to be the answer for us are extremely low.  I suppose I will be less annoyed if they select Josh Allen at #12 than if they pass on Quarterbacks and take a DT and a LB at #12 and #22.  But I will not feel great about the chances that we have found our guy. 

 

That's fair.

I think that's moot though, as I cannot see him being there at #12.

Cleveland and NYG  hold the keys to it all.

If Cleveland takes Allen, then what?

NYG go Darnold and sit him a year?

That leaves only Mayfield or Rosen available after #3, with the Jets taking one, and Denver probably grabbing the remainder if they like him.

Does NYG go Barkley then, letting Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield all shift down to the Jets and broncos, now leaving the remainder to fall?

Maybe the broncos don't take one, then two of them fall?

 

This draft is completely crazy.

[aristocrat]

All qbs have to go into the right situation. Right coach, team, front office etc. I’m sure there have been many qbs who came out and into the wrong place and we’re ruined cause of it. If we have a top five defense and top run game the qb can just learn the game and grow while winning.  

[racketmaster]

First off thanks for sharing OP as that is a great interview. Listening to Palmer talk just confirmed in my mind that Bills would love Darnold or Allen. Backup option would be a guy like Rudolph. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Sounds like more of the same excuses again. There is inaccuracy on tape that is not a result of his receivers or his coaching. 

 

Josh Allen doesn't suck as a Quarterback prospect but there is simply far too many question marks and far too much projection for me to believe that any team taking him in the first (and I think he will go top 10) is making a wise move. It essentially turns your 1st round pick into a coin flip. 

 

I should say the technical stuff is interesting. I will have a look back when I have some time for the subtle overstride Palmer talks about because there were throws I saw where there was nothing obviously mechnically wrong but Jordan Palmer has played QB in the NFL and I haven't so it is very possible he picked up on something I missed. 

 

Even so.... I am now being asked to take Jordan Palmer's word for it that the very subtle mechnical flaw that caused natural inacurracy in college has been fixed by reps against air without the heat of battle since the season ended? More projection... more take on trust. This is not what I am looking for when I spend my 1st round pick. 

 

 

Yes, there is inaccuracy on tape that is not a result of his receivers or his coaching.

 

Do listen to the interview. The Palmer interview starts around 42 minutes in. Jordan Palmer isn't just an ex-pro QB these days. He's arguably the most highly-respected QB guru out there. He talks a lot about DeShaun Watson, another guy he worked with extensively. That was also interesting. He's worked a lot with Stidham also.

 

And he says he's addressed this and that Allen got better in Mobile, better yet at the combine and will be a ton better at his pro day. That should be easy enough to eyeball as confirmation that Palmer is onto something.

 

So, yeah, you're taking it on faith that he's improved over the offseason without facing live rushes. Of course, you're assuming the same thing with every QB out there in every year. You're taking it on trust with every QB. Everyone has to take different kinds of huge steps upwards.

 

I'm not pounding the table for the guy. But to me there's been a wild disconnect between the obvious problem and the fact that guys like Mayock love the guy. Mayock has him as the #2 after Darnold. Why? Kiper has him as the #1. Why? I haven't understood it. After hearing this, I understand. Again, feel free to disagree.

 

 

53 minutes ago, mannc said:

How is that possible?  Is Palmer a charity operation?

 

 

The agents pay him, and they pay him only for the three month QB camp he puts people through. He has no financial interest in whether or where they get drafted. He's already been paid.

 

 

26 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Just because it can be explained doesn't mean it can be corrected.  It's that simple.  Can he make quick decisions under pressure and get the ball out accurately?  We have no idea, because he's never shown he can do it.  Ever.  If I'm a GM with my job on the line, I'd prefer to have an idea.

 

 

Yes, agreed.

 

But again, Palmer has been working with him every day. He says it's already been addressed and that his accuracy has been improving. You can choose to disbelieve that if you like, or you can suspect that when he's being rushed he might regress. Fair enough. But there's already some serious indication that a change has been made. It might stick. Might not. But it might.

Edited April 3, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Sounds like more of the same excuses again. There is inaccuracy on tape that is not a result of his receivers or his coaching. 

 

Josh Allen doesn't suck as a Quarterback prospect but there is simply far too many question marks and far too much projection for me to believe that any team taking him in the first (and I think he will go top 10) is making a wise move. It essentially turns your 1st round pick into a coin flip. 

 

I should say the technical stuff is interesting. I will have a look back when I have some time for the subtle overstride Palmer talks about because there were throws I saw where there was nothing obviously mechnically wrong but Jordan Palmer has played QB in the NFL and I haven't so it is very possible he picked up on something I missed. 

 

Even so.... I am now being asked to take Jordan Palmer's word for it that the very subtle mechnical flaw that caused natural inacurracy in college has been fixed by reps against air without the heat of battle since the season ended? More projection... more take on trust. This is not what I am looking for when I spend my 1st round pick. 

 

He kind of addresses that, no? 

 

I agree with you, I'm interested if now that I've read his comments about an overstride, if I can pick up what Palmer is talking about.  Because I saw the same thing that you commented about, inaccuracy where I couldn't see an obvious mechanics issue (vs Jackson, Rudolph, or Mayfield where I could say at times "oh, that throw will be off" before the ball left his arm)