Trading up idea...

[DrDawkinstein]

What would we get at 5 or 7 that we cant get at 12? No point in making moves unless it gets us to #2.

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, elltrain22 said:

 

- Not have to give up nearly as much. 

- Cleveland passes on moving down bc they covet Barkley 

- Could draft with Denver, but I honestly think they'd take Chubb or Nelson before Mayfield 

 

A 50% premium will be given regardless. So if I am TB I want that premium as well. So going from 12 to 5 is gonna run same value IMO than going 12 to 7 to 5

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

What would we get at 5 or 7 that we cant get at 12? No point in making moves unless it gets us to #2.

 

Maybe 4 as well. That assures on of the top 4 QBs

[gobills1212]

14 minutes ago, stuvian said:

Denver won't trade with us. They too are after a QB

 

14 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Denver is taking a QB for themselves foe Petes sake.

 

This isn't a sure thing. They could bolster and do a Case study. Word is, they also dig the kid w the glowing nose. If that's true, stock on up and grab him later w your new shiny 1st rd pick. Of course, they could go qb - but their spot is pretty commonly thought of as a destination if maybe more so draft night. All speculation of course, but no need to be close minded about it

Edited April 3, 2018 by gobills1212

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

 

A 50% premium will be given regardless. So if I am TB I want that premium as well. So going from 12 to 5 is gonna run same value IMO than going 12 to 7 to 5

 

Maybe 4 as well. That assures on of the top 4 QBs

 

4 is too late as well. There are 2, maybe 3, Top QBs in this draft. 4 or later isnt going to get us anything great. We'll be spending all those assets to get a 2nd Tier guy.

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

 

They like every team has futures. They like everyteam can run that premium up to get to 50%

 

 

When the Rams went from 15 to 1 (where Arizona is) they traded 2 1sts, 2 2nds and 2 3rds. Arizona has 15, 47, 79 and 97 this year. They will have to use 1 & 2 next year to have a shot. If you think that a team is going to use their first 4 picks this year and their 1st 2 the following year, we disagree. No team has ever done that. They aren’t a realistic player. 

 

Miami has 11, 42, 73, 111 and next year’s 1st and 2nd. I don’t see that as realistic either. 

 

That’s the point. At 12, the Bills can offer 12, 22, 53 and 65 and no one can come close. If they get to 7 it may be even less. 

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

What would we get at 5 or 7 that we cant get at 12? No point in making moves unless it gets us to #2.

You’ll get a QB at 5. Cleveland and/or Giants are taking a position player. It depends on the grades that you have though. If you like all 4 guys than it works. If it has to be a particular guy you may need to get to 2.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

When the Rams went from 15 to 1 (where Arizona is) they traded 2 1sts, 2 2nds and 2 3rds. Arizona has 15, 47, 79 and 97 this year. They will have to use 1 & 2 next year to have a shot. If you think that a team is going to use their first 4 picks this year and their 1st 2 the following year, we disagree. No team has ever done that. They aren’t a realistic player. 

 

Miami has 11, 42, 73, 111 and next year’s 1st and 2nd. I don’t see that as realistic either. 

 

That’s the point. At 12, the Bills can offer 12, 22, 53 and 65 and no one can come close. If they get to 7 it may be even less. 

 

Now add those values up and tell me what the values come out compared to the 5th

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

 

Now add those values up and tell me what the values come out compared to the 5th

That’s the point though. They aren’t getting those offers from Miami or Arizona. Therefore you won’t necessarily have to pay all of that draft capital. There are no other buyers. You’ll have to make a strong offer but they can’t leverage your offer against someone else. If they want to move down the Bills are the team. 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You’ll get a QB at 5. Cleveland and/or Giants are taking a position player. It depends on the grades that you have though. If you like all 4 guys than it works. If it has to be a particular guy you may need to get to 2.

 

That's my point though. I'm after 2, maybe 3, QBs. 5 isnt going to get it done. Gotta get to #2 to get THE guy in this draft. Unfortunately, I think the Giants stay there and take him instead.

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s the point though. They aren’t getting those offers from Miami or Arizona. Therefore you won’t necessarily have to pay all of that draft capital. There are no other buyers. You’ll have to make a strong offer but they can’t leverage your offer against someone else. If they want to move down the Bills are the team. 

 

lol

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s the point though. They aren’t getting those offers from Miami or Arizona. Therefore you won’t necessarily have to pay all of that draft capital. There are no other buyers. You’ll have to make a strong offer but they can’t leverage your offer against someone else. If they want to move down the Bills are the team. 

 

There are other buyers. Not to mention the team our negotiating with could very well take the QB. 

 

What is known and set is the QB Premium. That is what the Bills will pay or very very close to it 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

That's my point though. I'm after 2, maybe 3, QBs. 5 isnt going to get it done. Gotta get to #2 to get THE guy in this draft. Unfortunately, I think the Giants stay there and take him instead.

 

lol

Yeah, I don’t like all 4 the same. If the Bills do it is a good option. It’s kind of what they did with McCarron. They took the last “bridge” type of guy and paid $.10 on the dollar. If they go to 5 and take ____ it will certainly be cheaper. I am shooting for 2 as well but there are options.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Yeah, I don’t like all 4 the same. If the Bills do it is a good option. It’s kind of what they did with McCarron. They took the last “bridge” type of guy and paid $.10 on the dollar. If they go to 5 and take ____ it will certainly be cheaper. I am shooting for 2 as well but there are options.

 

Anything can happen at the draft, usually the most unexpected, but I just cant see it going any different than 1CLE-Darnold, 2NYG-Rosen, 3NYJ-Allen...

 

I dont know what we do after that. We're starting to deal in grey market at that point.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

There are other buyers. Not to mention the team our negotiating with could very well take the QB. 

 

What is known and set is the QB Premium. That is what the Bills will pay or very very close to it 

Who are the other buyers? You said Arizona and Miami and I just illustrated why they aren’t. They aren’t making a Ricky Williams move. Miami could maybe try to get to like 7 but the Bills can still trump that easily. There are teams that would love to go up but they don’t have the assets. The Bills are the only realistic buyers (besides Denver) and they know that. Teams can’t leverage the Dolphins or Cardinals because the Bills know that they don’t have what it takes. If the Giants get the Broncos involved, that could change things. They can put together a viable offer for 2 (and it still give the Giants Chubb or Barkley). 

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Anything can happen at the draft, usually the most unexpected, but I just cant see it going any different than 1CLE-Darnold, 2NYG-Rosen, 3NYJ-Allen...

 

I dont know what we do after that. We're starting to deal in grey market at that point.

It sounds like Cleveland wants QB and Barkley. They aren’t looking for more picks. You’d be trying to get to 5 for Baker at that point.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It sounds like Cleveland wants QB and Barkley. They aren’t looking for more picks. You’d be trying to get to 5 for Baker at that point.

 

Barf. At that point I hope the Broncos just stay and take him.

 

I have no problem with Beane selling the farm to get to #2. But I dont like the idea of trading anything away just to get to 4, 5 , 7, whatever. I wouldnt be mad about Mayfield at 12, but I'd be bummed we didnt get to #2.

 

 

Edited April 3, 2018 by DrDawkinstein

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

Who are the other buyers? You said Arizona and Miami and I just illustrated why they aren’t. They aren’t making a Ricky Williams move. Miami could maybe try to get to like 7 but the Bills can still trump that easily. There are teams that would love to go up but they don’t have the assets. The Bills are the only realistic buyers (besides Denver) and they know that. Teams can’t leverage the Dolphins or Cardinals because the Bills know that they don’t have what it takes. If the Giants get the Broncos involved, that could change things. They can put together a viable offer for 2 (and it still give the Giants Chubb or Barkley). 

 

You illustrated why they were not because it is what you feel. 

 

Anyone think Philly was Coming up for Wentz before it happened. 

 

Atlanta for Julio

KC for Mahomes 

 

there are buyers. And that is All it takes to make the premium go to where it will go of 50%. 

 

And you conviently ignore the fact that Den does still need a QB in every one of these no threat to QB teams

[ALLEN1QB]

Sounds good to me. Now trade those four pics for number 2

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

 

You illustrated why they were not because it is what you feel. 

 

Anyone think Philly was Coming up for Wentz before it happened. 

 

Atlanta for Julio

KC for Mahomes 

 

there are buyers. And that is All it takes to make the premium go to where it will go of 50%. 

 

And you conviently ignore the fact that Den does still need a QB in every one of these no threat to QB teams

I named their assets. 1 teams has gone from 15 to the top of the draft, the Rams. It cost them 2 1’s, 2, 2’s and 2 3’s. To meet that price the Cardinals would have to trade their first 4 picks this year and their top 2 next year. They wouldn’t add a player this year before 134 and next year before at least 65 or so. Do you think that is realistic? I certainly don’t. 

 

I’ve said that Denver is the one actual threat. They can assemble a package to get to 2. If they do that the Bills will be looking at 6 with the Colts or 7 with Tampa. That potentially brings Miami into play. At the same time the Bills are still paying way less than they would have and Miami can’t compete. The Bills will absolutely not be picking at 12. They aren’t just going to overpay either. They have a zillion different scenarios depending on how the top goes. They may go to 2, 4, 5, 6 or 7. 

[Estro]

If the Bills want to get to #4, I think they first need to get to #6....Why?

 

I think the Browns are set on using their #1 pick on a QB.......and another blue chip prospect at #4......I'm guessing that group of blue chippers would include Barkley, Chubb and maybe 1 other guy.  The only way the Browns can guarantee themselves 1 of those 3 players would be to not trade down past either #6 or #7 depending on whether 3 or 4 QB's go in the top 7.

 

I just happen to think the Browns will only move down if it's a couple of spots.  I'm sure the Bills would know this if true and have many different plans come draft day to get there if needed.

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Because they are going to get their 50% premium. 

 

They have the threat of a QB pick so they absolutely can put the screws to Buffalo for that set premium price 

 

Maybe but 50% has been set for a couple years now from Wentz to Trubinsky to Jets this year

If it happens it happens I have already braced myself for a huge payout.

 

If they get their qb of the next 10 years or so its worth it

[Mat68]

The double trade could happen.  I expect it would happen at the same time.  Imo how highly do they think of Jackson.  They could stay close to 12 flop a third move up slightly and keep most of the picks..  maybe Rosen slides.  If that happens imo Buffalo would be a player.  Too many ways it can play out still.  Cleveland than NYG sets the scene for how it goes.  Buffalo could move up anywhere.  Will be the most exciting draft in awhile.

[ganesh]

10 hours ago, No Place To Hyde said:

I don't care what any chart says, I don't see us getting to 5 and keeping 22, 56 or 65.

I agree. Considering what the Jets paid for #3 to the Colts, I don't see how TB takes a 52 (a low 2nd round pick) to switch 7 slots and then Denver turning around and taking only the last 3rd round pick!!!...That is plain laughable trade if it went that way.

7 hours ago, Mat68 said:

The double trade could happen.  I expect it would happen at the same time.  Imo how highly do they think of Jackson.  They could stay close to 12 flop a third move up slightly and keep most of the picks..  maybe Rosen slides.  If that happens imo Buffalo would be a player.  Too many ways it can play out still.  Cleveland than NYG sets the scene for how it goes.  Buffalo could move up anywhere.  Will be the most exciting draft in awhile.

Exciting draft day for sure this time.