Royale with Cheese Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 15 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I've done it several times in the past and have almost always been right. I hated Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Paxton Lynch, Christian Hackenberg, Blake Bortles, the entire 2013 QB Class, Jimmy Clausen, etc. All those guys, like Allen, were mediocre college QBs who were over drafted because they looked like Franchise QBs. As I've said numerous times, I think Josh Allen is going to be a colossal bust. Not to get into this argument but a lot of people had those guys not succeeding in the NFL.
JohnC Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Chuck Wagon said: Completely agree. He's not #1 on my board. I wouldn't take him #1. But I don't think he's a clear #4 by miles like some seem to believe. Baker's play style (and frankly personality) give me as much pause as Allen does. Ultimately any of the 4 have more potential than any QB we've had in the building in decades. Rest assured that if the Bills draft Allen the snickering will turn into how our fortunes have turned with his unexpected availability. I agree with you that any of the top four qbs, and even a couple of the second tier prospects, would be a major upgrade from what we have had at that position for a generation. What is really intriguing about this qb class is that each player has a different skill set. And yet each qb is capable of being a franchise qb (at different development rates) for an organization that hasn't had one in a long time. There are no guarantees but if this draft works out as hoped for we will finally accomplish something that prior regimes haven't come close to accomplishing in the never ending quest for a main-stay qb.
thebandit27 Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: Not to get into this argument but a lot of people had those guys not succeeding in the NFL. Indeed...just like everyone and their brother apparently had Russell Wilson as not only a 1st round pick, but the guy that should've been taken #1 overall over Andrew Luck
jrober38 Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Please. We've all been right/wrong about prospects in the past. A guy isn't a 4th-round caliber player just because you think he is, and even if you believe him to be a very likely bust, then calling him a 4th-round caliber player is incongruous to that sentiment. If he's got as limited a chance to play in this league as you have tirelessly professed, then he's not worth drafting. Why take a doomed prospect in the 4th round, especially if you're always right about these things (which I'd welcome any links to previous evaluations that prove your respective genius on such matters)? Congrats on outsmarting the football-watching world on that cast of characters by the way, nobody else called that All my stuff was over on the Bills Message Board. There are definitely people here who can vouch for my claims. Pretty much every year I pick a guy who is a first rounder who I think is garbage. They usually go in round 1 and they've all been busts. I don't think there's a single QB I was critical of who has turned into a decent player (the averages obviously work in my favour so I'm not tooting my horn). I maintain it's really hard to find a QB, and I think it's hilarious how every year people go to great lengths to make excuses for players who have next to no hope of becoming an NFL Franchise QB. 5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: Not to get into this argument but a lot of people had those guys not succeeding in the NFL. Sure. But a lot on the old Bills' Board wanted them with our first round pick the year they were available. Some people loved Gabbert, some loved Barkley, lots loved Jimmy Clausen. All are enormous busts.
thebandit27 Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 Just now, jrober38 said: All my stuff was over on the Bills Message Board. There are definitely people here who can vouch for my claims. Pretty much every year I pick a guy who is a first rounder who I think is garbage. They usually go in round 1 and they've all been busts. I don't think there's a single QB I was critical of who has turned into a decent player (the averages obviously work in my favour so I'm not tooting my horn). I maintain it's really hard to find a QB, and I think it's hilarious how every year people go to great lengths to make excuses for players who have next to no hope of becoming an NFL Franchise QB. So basically you're never wrong? Good to know. As for the bold, if that's what you think I am saying about Allen, then you've confirmed my suspicion that you haven't been paying attention
jrober38 Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: So basically you're never wrong? Good to know. As for the bold, if that's what you think I am saying about Allen, then you've confirmed my suspicion that you haven't been paying attention I've been wrong about a few guys I liked. If you just assume that nearly every QB is going to be terrible, and grade them on a really tough scale, you'll wind up being right way more than you're wrong. It's really hard to find a good QB. Generally they're the guys who dominated college football while they were there, like Baker Mayfield. The other guys all represent considerably risk in my eyes.
Royale with Cheese Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, jrober38 said: All my stuff was over on the Bills Message Board. There are definitely people here who can vouch for my claims. Pretty much every year I pick a guy who is a first rounder who I think is garbage. They usually go in round 1 and they've all been busts. I don't think there's a single QB I was critical of who has turned into a decent player (the averages obviously work in my favour so I'm not tooting my horn). I maintain it's really hard to find a QB, and I think it's hilarious how every year people go to great lengths to make excuses for players who have next to no hope of becoming an NFL Franchise QB. Sure. But a lot on the old Bills' Board wanted them with our first round pick the year they were available. Some people loved Gabbert, some loved Barkley, lots loved Jimmy Clausen. All are enormous busts. Which is true but I think some people, especially on a message board, just fall in love with someone. Barkley was a 4th round pick....I wouldn't call that an enormous bust.
thebandit27 Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 1 minute ago, jrober38 said: If you just assume that nearly every QB is going to be terrible, and grade them on a really tough scale, you'll wind up being right way more than you're wrong. Gee, ya think? You seem to confuse draft value with the potential for a QB to succeed. QBs should, IMO, always get pushed up the board due to positional value. If you get it right on a QB, he's going to be at least twice as valuable as any other position you might get right on draft day. On that fact alone, any QB that has a shot to be a long-term franchise guy should be a first-round pick. Absent that, a QB that has a shot to be a short-term answer that leads to a potential playoff run should be a day 2 guy. What's left--the potential long-term backups--are day 3 guys. 4 minutes ago, jrober38 said: It's really hard to find a good QB. Generally they're the guys who dominated college football while they were there, like Baker Mayfield. The other guys all represent considerably risk in my eyes. I don't think that's true. Would you say that guys like Manziel and RG3 were good QBs? They both utterly dominated college football--at least as much as guys like Jared Goff and Andrew Luck. Every QB is a risk. You don't know how well they're going to pick up an NFL offense, how hard they're going to work once they've been paid a life-changing amount of money, how well they're going to bounce back from both minor and major injuries, how well they're going to mesh with your locker room and coaches, etc. etc. etc.
FearLess Price Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 Browns are probobly taking Darnold at #1. They got Tyrod for a few years to groom him. The Allen talk is a smoke screen, he is def not our target because hes another project qb and we have one of those already. OBD is def trading up for Darnold, Rosen or Mayfield. If they can't, i see them taking Mason Rudolph.
Mat68 Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 In the age of spread offenses, o step drops, and quick screens, Allen played his college career without any of that. Allen is obviously a risk. If he is able to sit and develop he can be special. Cleveland traded for Taylor so they can compete this year. Whoever they pick will have a difficult time beating out Taylor because of everything he bring to the team. Allen has made the most pro level throws and has the most impressive tape than any other prospects. He makes 3 to 4 throws a game only 1 or 2 Qbs in the NFL could make. That is what is going to get him drafted and early. The NFL is filled with cocky/ arrogant coaches and they all believe they are the guys who can get all that potential out of him. For Allen this is where having an agent paid off. Without getting coached by a team he already started working on his inconsistencies that lead to inaccuracy. Apparently, he is a smart kid who knows football and killed the interviews. Reason I bring up the agents and off the field stuff with him is because I believe Allen and Jackson have the most potential. Seems like Allen is willing and listening to the right people that are putting him in position to reach his potential. With Jackson I am highly concerned. If he went to a combine prep academy and hitched onto a QB guru to fix some of his short coming he would have the hype of Allen but with superior production. He would have been a no doubter. The only things about Jackson since Christmas has been negative. Any Qb or first rd pick is risky. Picking #1 who has the most ability to become great? Allen is in that conversation.
jrober38 Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: Which is true but I think some people, especially on a message board, just fall in love with someone. Barkley was a 4th round pick....I wouldn't call that an enormous bust. There are a won of Bills fans who wanted him with the 8th overall pick in that draft. 3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Gee, ya think? You seem to confuse draft value with the potential for a QB to succeed. QBs should, IMO, always get pushed up the board due to positional value. If you get it right on a QB, he's going to be at least twice as valuable as any other position you might get right on draft day. On that fact alone, any QB that has a shot to be a long-term franchise guy should be a first-round pick. Absent that, a QB that has a shot to be a short-term answer that leads to a potential playoff run should be a day 2 guy. What's left--the potential long-term backups--are day 3 guys. I don't think that's true. Would you say that guys like Manziel and RG3 were good QBs? They both utterly dominated college football--at least as much as guys like Jared Goff and Andrew Luck. Every QB is a risk. You don't know how well they're going to pick up an NFL offense, how hard they're going to work once they've been paid a life-changing amount of money, how well they're going to bounce back from both minor and major injuries, how well they're going to mesh with your locker room and coaches, etc. etc. etc. The key word was "generally". Bottom line is there is no history of success for guys being successful over the past 15 years who weren't elite college QBs.
Mat68 Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 Just now, FearLess Price said: Browns are probobly taking Darnold at #1. They got Tyrod for a few years to groom him. The Allen talk is a smoke screen, he is def not our target because hes another project qb and we have one of those already. OBD is def trading up for Darnold, Rosen or Mayfield. If they can't, i see them taking Mason Rudolph. Who does Cleveland have to smoke out? They pick one. The reason the first picks usually gets leaked because they have no one to deceive. Once they figure out who they want at 1 they move onto to 4 where that is a position they would leak mis-information.
HappyDays Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 29 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: calling him a 4th-round caliber player is incongruous to that sentiment. If he's got as limited a chance to play in this league as you have tirelessly professed, then he's not worth drafting. I don't understand this logic. Anyone drafted in the 4th round has a long shot of making it. That's exactly where you start taking projects. I personally wouldn't draft anyone in the first 3 rounds that I didn't feel confident about starting at some point in their rookie season. Taking a player in the 1st round that you know isn't going to be ready for a couple years at minimum is nuts.
Royale with Cheese Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 1 minute ago, jrober38 said: There are a won of Bills fans who wanted him with the 8th overall pick in that draft. The key word was "generally". Bottom line is there is no history of success for guys being successful over the past 15 years who weren't elite college QBs. Yes but that doesn't determine whether or not he's a enormous bust or not. A mid round pick isn't a massive bust. Enormous busts are Jamarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf. They aren't in the same bust category as a 4th rounder.
thebandit27 Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, jrober38 said: The key word was "generally". Bottom line is there is no history of success for guys being successful over the past 15 years who weren't elite college QBs. Actually, it depends upon how you define "successful". Ryan Tannehill has been a 6-year stater for Miami and taken them to the playoffs, and he wasn't elite in college. Joe Flacco lost his job at Pitt to Tyler Palko, and wasn't anything approaching elite at Delaware (he had a good Senior year and that was it), and he has carved out a 10-year career with a Super Bowl championship. Matt Ryan threw for less than 3k yards as a JR with a YPA below 7.0; he then threw for 4,500 yards with a sub-60% completion rate and a YPA below 7.0 as a SR. Not elite at all. I could keep going, but your assertion is not exactly supported here. 3 minutes ago, HappyDays said: I don't understand this logic. Anyone drafted in the 4th round has a long shot of making it. That's exactly where you start taking projects. I personally wouldn't draft anyone in the first 3 rounds that I didn't feel confident about starting at some point in their rookie season. Taking a player in the 1st round that you know isn't going to be ready for a couple years at minimum is nuts. I explained my thought process: "You seem to confuse draft value with the potential for a QB to succeed. QBs should, IMO, always get pushed up the board due to positional value. If you get it right on a QB, he's going to be at least twice as valuable as any other position you might get right on draft day. On that fact alone, any QB that has a shot to be a long-term franchise guy should be a first-round pick. Absent that, a QB that has a shot to be a short-term answer that leads to a potential playoff run should be a day 2 guy. What's left--the potential long-term backups--are day 3 guys."
HappyDays Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 26 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Indeed...just like everyone and their brother apparently had Russell Wilson as not only a 1st round pick, but the guy that should've been taken #1 overall over Andrew Luck I can vouch for jrober on this. Back to the old Bill's message board days he has been vocal about not liking that style of QB. It's one of the easiest things to predict in the NFL because every year there's a QB with nothing but raw physical talent that gets overdrafted and ultimately busts.
Jay_Fixit Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 Some of you are giving jrober a tough time here but his formula (his formula is using his eyes) is pretty good. It’s so rare a QB that wasn’t very good in college turns out to be anything in the NFL.
jrober38 Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Actually, it depends upon how you define "successful". Ryan Tannehill has been a 6-year stater for Miami and taken them to the playoffs, and he wasn't elite in college. Joe Flacco lost his job at Pitt to Tyler Palko, and wasn't anything approaching elite at Delaware (he had a good Senior year and that was it), and he has carved out a 10-year career with a Super Bowl championship. Matt Ryan threw for less than 3k yards as a JR with a YPA below 7.0; he then threw for 4,500 yards with a sub-60% completion rate and a YPA below 7.0 as a SR. Not elite at all. I could keep going, but your assertion is not exactly supported here. Ryan Tannehill has been a very mediocre NFL QB. As a top 10 pick he's not a success. Not a complete failure, but he's done nothing to elevate the Dolphins. Flacco is an obvious outlier. Matt Ryan carried a mediocre BC team to a top 10 ranking and a 10 win season as a Senior. He finished 7th in the Heisman Vote in 2007. There are obviously exceptions, but if you look at how many mediocre QBs get drafted to the NFL, and how few of them actually make it as Franchise Guys, the odds are overwhelmingly slanted towards these type of guys never becoming anything more than backups at the pro level. The QBs I have with a 1st round grade this year are Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen and Jackson. I think they could all start this year and have about a 50% chance of becoming really good pros. The next tier for me is Allen, Lauletta and Rudolph. I'd consider picking them in the 3rd or 4th round. I think they each have less than a 10% chance of becoming a really good pro QB. I wouldn't use a draft pick on any other QB. I'd rather draft a player who can actually contribute on special teams and possibly develop into a good backup. Edited April 11, 2018 by jrober38 2 1
ALF Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 That would be great if Allen went in the top 3 giving the Bills a chance at a good QB still at #4 if they can't trade up to #2.
thebandit27 Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Ryan Tannehill has been a very mediocre NFL QB. As a top 10 pick he's not a success. Not a complete failure, but he's done nothing to elevate the Dolphins. Flacco is an obvious outlier. Matt Ryan carried a mediocre BC team to a top 10 ranking and a 10 win season as a Senior. He finished 7th in the Heisman Vote in 2007. There are obviously exceptions, but if you look at how many mediocre QBs get drafted to the NFL, and how few of them actually make it as Franchise Guys, the odds are overwhelmingly slanted towards these type of guys never becoming anything more than backups at the pro level. The QBs I have with a 1st round grade this year are Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen and Jackson. I think they could all start this year and have about a 50% chance of becoming really good pros. The next tier for me is Allen, Lauletta and Rudolph. I'd consider picking them in the 3rd or 4th round. I think they each have less than a 10% chance of becoming a really good pro QB. I wouldn't use a draft pick on any other QB. I'd rather draft a player who can actually contribute on special teams and possibly develop into a good backup. You're moving the goalposts to support your stance on the "elite college QB" issue. Ryan had 1 good season as a SR, not elite by any stretch. If we want to give him credit for carrying a mediocre team, then what shall we say about Allen, who took over a 2-win team and took them to consecutive bowl games, including a bowl game win as a SR against one of the top-20 pass defenses in college football? The point is that you are using hindsight to cherry-pick examples that fit your narrative. Again I say that I'm fine with being of the opinion that Allen won't be successful, but keep in in the fairway; there's no reason to overstate your case. 10 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said: Some of you are giving jrober a tough time here but his formula (his formula is using his eyes) is pretty good. It’s so rare a QB that wasn’t very good in college turns out to be anything in the NFL. Again, nobody is saying that Allen is definitely going to; many of us, however, are railing against those who say he's definitely not going to, which is just as silly.
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