Gunner's 2018 Draft QB evaluations

[RyanC883]

 

 

Thanks for the work.  I've only seen "stats" on some of the QB's and it's nice to see the "film" behind them.  I wondered why Falk took soo many sacks, now I know.  

 

Hopefully we can get Rosen, Mayfield or stay put, IMO.  

5 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

god job gunner, but it does not determine where these guys go. i say darnold goes to the browns.  barkley or chubb to the giants and rosen in the rotten apple to the jets.

 

the bills take mayfield at4. if for some reason  he gets picked before then , then we sit and take rudolph. if it has to be at 12 so be it.

 

i would rather take him at 22, but that's a risk with az and miami is one pick before us so..

 

i would love ridley  or edmunds/vea in the 1st and a trade back up for rudolph....idk i can't take this anymore

 

pre-draft is fun.  Don't go insane!!  Just spend way too many hours on fanspeak (wtf, it's 2am!....may have happened to me once).  

 

I like the Idea of Edmunds/Vea in the 1st.   I'm thinking I'd never take a WR in the first anymore.  Too much depth, value this year.  We could get Chark in 2nd and St. Browne in 3rd.  

 

I can't decide about Rudolph, but the fact he comes up small in big games is a huge red flag.  Would rather have Kyle L.  

 

 

[billsredneck1]

7 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

 

Thanks for the work.  I've only seen "stats" on some of the QB's and it's nice to see the "film" behind them.  I wondered why Falk took soo many sacks, now I know.  

 

Hopefully we can get Rosen, Mayfield or stay put, IMO.  

 

pre-draft is fun.  Don't go insane!!  Just spend way too many hours on fanspeak (wtf, it's 2am!....may have happened to me once).  

 

I like the Idea of Edmunds/Vea in the 1st.   I'm thinking I'd never take a WR in the first anymore.  Too much depth, value this year.  We could get Chark in 2nd and St. Browne in 3rd.  

 

I can't decide about Rudolph, but the fact he comes up small in big games is a huge red flag.  Would rather have Kyle L.  

 

 

i just have to find a way to zone out for 4 weeks. i listen to gr and danger and batagtlia everyday, but i'm gonna go crazy.....i just dont know...

[Kelly the Dog]

Great job, Gunner. Love when someone takes time, does homework, knows what he’s talking about, gives pros and cons, isn’t afraid to buck the trend or show any influence of others, and takes a stand. Tremendous post. Same to Bandit. 

[B Fan in LA]

 

Tremendous job, Gunner. I can't believe you're not getting paid for this.

 

Your opinion confirms my opinion, which is that Rosen is the best of the bunch, Darnold is a maybe,

and the rest are a crap shoot.

 

I hope the Bills stay put at 12 and 22 and draft the best position players available.

If Lauletta is available in the 2nd round, grab him.

 

[H2o]

Thank you for the time and effort put into this my friend. Your evals are always a great read. I don't always agree with the rankings, but your analysis is excellent. 

Edited April 1, 2018 by H2o

[aceman_16]

I enjoyed your write up.  Thanks you for your time and energy on this.

[beerme1]

6 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

god job gunner, but it does not determine where these guys go. i say darnold goes to the browns.  barkley or chubb to the giants and rosen in the rotten apple to the jets.

 

the bills take mayfield at4. if for some reason  he gets picked before then , then we sit and take rudolph. if it has to be at 12 so be it.

 

i would rather take him at 22, but that's a risk with az and miami is one pick before us so..

 

i would love ridley  or edmunds/vea in the 1st and a trade back up for rudolph....idk i can't take this anymore

 

 

This is me. But this decision to do Rudolph at 12 because he won't be there at 22 is a some B word call.

[wppete]

I keep changing my mind who I hope we pick at QB from the top 4 QBs. 

[GunnerBill]

First of all guys thanks for all the kind words.  It is a bit of a labour of love for me but typing pages and pages of notes up into something coherent and digestible takes time so good to know that it was appreciated.  There are a few posts I want to respond to where people have asked things... apologies if I have missed anyone.

 

17 hours ago, Lothar said:

Great job, Gunner! You and Blokes and Bandit are the three amigos of prospect analysis on TBD. Given that you think Rosen seems the only sure fire franchise guy, what's your opinion on the other 6 or 7 when it comes to potential fits with the Bills' projected style of offense. Or is that too nebulous at the moment?

 

Hard to answer because I don't know what the Bills style of offense under the new OC is going to be. On the one hand Beane very much describes his ideal as being a classic drop back passer (plays to Rosen and Allen) whereas others are looking at Brian Daboll coming out of a college scheme and expecting more of a spread option type offense (plays to Mayfield, Rudolph and to some extent Jackson).  I am not sure Darnold would be their guy even if he wasn't going #1 overall - too much of a gunslinger and I worry that Mayfield won't fit their character profile. I'd be perfectly happy with either of those. 

 

16 hours ago, mannc said:

Bill, given that Rosen received your only top-five grade in this class, do you believe he’s the only one worth the Bills trading up for?  (I think we both know that a lot of these guys will come off the board earlier than your grades would suggest they should.)

 

He is the only one I'd go to #2 for.  I'd be willing to go up for Mayfield - we have the need and we have the ammunition - but Cleveland at #4 would be where I'd start for him and then go for there.  Denver are a team I'm really not sure which way they go at #5. 

 

16 hours ago, TigerJ said:

I don't do film observation, so I wouldn't presume to critique the work that Gunner has done, but his grade on where these QBs should be drafted has zero impact on where they will be drafted.  The incredible need that NFL teams have to find the right quarterback when there are not enough to go around results in them being drafted far higher than grades based solely on their mechanics, measurables and college production might suggest for a draft position.  I'm pretty sure Gunner would agree with that too.

 

Of course... and it is worth saying I don't love the rest of the draft class. Sam Darnold with a mid first by the objective grades is my #7 player on my big board.  Mayfield with a mid to late first is my #11 on my big board.  For comparison sake I had Deshaun Watson graded a single point higher last year than I have Darnold and he was the #12 player on my board last year.  Trubisky had a grade a single point lower than Mayfield and was the #17 on my board last year.  So I fully expect Darnold and Mayfield to go in the top 10.... and Josh Allen as well even though I don't have him graded there.

 

10 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Great job, Gunner. Love when someone takes time, does homework, knows what he’s talking about, gives pros and cons, isn’t afraid to buck the trend or show any influence of others, and takes a stand. Tremendous post. Same to Bandit. 

 

I am never afraid to have an opinion that is different. It's why I try and do a lot of the actual film study before the real craziness of draft season kicks in.  You want to block out the noise in so far as possible and avoid groupthink and just go on what you see. If there is a year why my rankings absolutely match the talking heads I might be doing it wrong!

 

4 hours ago, beerme1 said:

This is me. But this decision to do Rudolph at 12 because he won't be there at 22 is a some B word call.

 

As you will see I am higher on Rudolph than most and I would not be gutted if the pick was him at #22. I think if you can't get one of the three I have above him though the Bills should go BPA at #12 and address their linebacker need with Edmunds or Smith and then take Rudolph at #22.  I am 95% sure he will be there.  The Bills at #22 is what I see a Rudolph's draft ceiling.  Steelers at end of the 2nd round is where I think his floor will be. 

 

Edited April 1, 2018 by GunnerBill

[wppete]

[eball]

Really appreciate the time and effort you and bandit put into this, particularly for guys like me who don't have the time or motivation to research everything but are also tired of just hearing the same old stojan from the talking heads in the media or the uninformed bias on this board.

 

Thanks!

[Teddy KGB]

This confirms what I see in regards to Mason Rudolph.  He can make a living off the accurate intermediate passing game.  

 

Lot of outspoken donkeys here firing off hot takes on how terrible Rudolph is.    

 

Rosen and Darnold all day with a side of Mayfield.     No time to wait for Jackson or Allen’s “upside”. 

 

Edited April 1, 2018 by Teddy KGB

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

16 hours ago, Bills Fan of Maryland said:

Damn nice post , no flame required - I am all in on Rosen and could be convinced on Darnold. Any of the rest could be there at 12. I guess the question is whether we are willing to gamble they will be or not.

 

Youre fooling yourself if you think only two qb will be gone by 12

[simpleman]

4 hours ago, joesixpack said:

 

Youre fooling yourself if you think only two qb will be gone by 12

Reading comp 101. That is Not what he said. " Any of the rest could be there at 12." He said he thought any one of the rest might be there at 12, not that all of the rest could be there at 12.

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, simpleman said:

Reading comp 101. That is Not what he said. " Any of the rest could be there at 12." He said he thought any one of the rest might be there at 12, not that all of the rest could be there at 12.

 

 

Thanks for the clarification.

 

I guess a definition of "any of the rest" would be useful, too.

 

[John from Riverside]

6 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

This confirms what I see in regards to Mason Rudolph.  He can make a living off the accurate intermediate passing game.  

 

Lot of outspoken donkeys here firing off hot takes on how terrible Rudolph is.    

 

Rosen and Darnold all day with a side of Mayfield.     No time to wait for Jackson or Allen’s “upside”. 

 

I personally that when it is all said and done the qbs touted the highest may not have the best careers

 

an alternative view is that you don’t know which of these qbs are gonna have the highest ceilings even if they are not the best out the gate

 

a player that was ultra productive in college but with work to do on his game could be a real player in a couple of years while a player with injury issues or attitude issues may never reach it

[K-9]

Well done, Gunner. Not surprised that Rosen would be at the top. He's been the clubhouse leader since the college season started. That doesn't mean he'll be the first QB taken, just that the consensus among the scouting community hasn't changed. He's the most pro ready prospect available. That simple. 

[4merper4mer]

7 hours ago, joesixpack said:

 

Youre fooling yourself if you think only two qb will be gone by 12 I mean 3

Fixed

[tlfcbb]

Great job gunner. Good to read some really good analysis on these guys.  For what it's worth I agree with most of what you have said except I think I would rate Allen higher that you.  I think he has real promise and I would have him late first/early second.  I personally think that there will be at least 4 QBs off the board by the 15th pick.  That just shows how much teams will overpay for a QB.  It does scare me just how much we might give up to get one.

[Bills Freak]

Exemplary work. Even though my opinion means nothing, I was very close to the same analysis. Posts like this & the solid work some like you put in make this the very best forum to follow.