GunnerBill Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 **** Warning Long Post **** Here, finally, is my analysis of the 2018 Quarterback draft class. The sheer number of guys to watch this year combined with other commitments has made me much later than I intended to be and I think I have probably tipped my hat in the numerous other Quarterback threads as to how I feel about each of these guys. However, here it all is in one place. A couple of reminders / disclaimers before we begin. 1. My process is four step as every year: Identify the runners and riders at Quarterback the summer before; Try and watch each at least twice in live game action on tv by mid season; From December on work on the film out there on each and start to break down for evaluation purposes; Pick up on anyone who came late onto the scene and catch up with their film. 2. I try and balance the games I watch back in the evaluation phase for each prospect. I want to see them at their best and their worst in so far as is possible and against a range of opposition where possible. 3. My grades for each are against an objective scale…. They are not predictions of where players should go in the draft, nor are they relative to the strength of the rest of that year’s draft class. Mid to late first round does not mean “oh my God Gunner only has player x 25th on his big board”. Right then…. In no particular order, let’s make a start: Baker Mayfield – Senior – Quarterback – Oklahoma Games watched: Oklahoma State, TCU, Ohio State, Kansas State (all 2017); Houston, Baylor (2016); Tennessee (2015) Initial Comments: I include the Tennessee game from 2015 because it was my first exposure to Baker Mayfield and he sucked. I knew he went on to put up good numbers in 2015 and 2016 but in my head I had pretty much written him off, especially after his police incident. However, when I started last summer to get into his 2016 tape my mind started to change and I was impressed every time I watched him in 2017 both live and evaluating film. Pros: Very good, underrated arm. Ball gets where it needs to be with plenty of velocity. Extremely mobile, can move in and outside the pocket and makes throws from different angles. Good decision maker - people often see Quarterbacks who freelance outside the pocket as having a more ‘gunslinger’ mentality but Mayfield is smart and doesn’t take unnecessary chances. Hyper competitive and looks like the leader of his team on the field. Extremely accurate on short and intermediate range throws to all parts of the field (slants, screens, quick outs and ins, crossers) giving his receivers opportunity for YAC. Has developed at the line of scrimmage in 2017, still room to grow further but he was clearly trusted enough to change some plays last season. Clutch gene in abundance. Plays his best in the biggest moments, over and over again. Cons: Obviously lacks ideal size and will need help to manufacture passing lanes for him with creative play design in certain situations. Footwork is messy but repeatable. It’s needs some tidying up but it isn’t a significant concern. Also no experience under centre. While he gets through progressions on occasions he definitely holds the ball too long when his first read is not there and will take a lot of sacks if that is repeated in the NFL. Lacks the athleticism to play the same part in an NFL running game that he did in college. He may have some success scrambling now and again but he is not Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson. He will have to win in the NFL as a passer. There are a noticeable lack of ‘big boy’ NFL throws on his tape. Very, very few seam or deep corner routes, only the occasional back shoulder fade (and his accuracy on those is questionable). Partly a consequence of the offense he played in but definitely the biggest concern in projecting his NFL success. Personality. I know some people love the “f you” type attitude. I do not. I think he has to be better at judging where the line is in the pro game and not crossing it…… or grabbing ‘it’. Draft Grade: Baker Mayfield has made himself a top draft prospect through sheer force of will and determination. He has improved every year in college and his competitiveness is off the charts. There will be transition issues for him coming from the short passing, spread offense at Oklahoma to a full NFL offense but he excels in the short game and makes a lot of NFL chain moving throws routinely. Mid to late 1st round grade. Mason Rudolph – Senior – Quarterback – Oklahoma State Games watched: Oklahoma, TCU, Pittsburgh, Texas, Tulsa, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech (all 2017); Colorado, TCU, West Virginia (all 2016) Initial Comments: Mason Rudolph might be one of the most polarising prospects of any position in this draft. Yes, he plays in a simplified college offense, yes, he has two good receivers, and yes, he plays in a conference where defense is not a strength…. But I see plenty of good on the film. Pros: Intermediate range accuracy is excellent. He excels on throws in that 10-20 yard range. For the most part the ball comes out on time and in rhythm and when he is in rhythm and confident he is very difficult to defend. More mobile and better when the play breaks down than he is often given credit for, always keeps his eyes down field and is looking constantly to be a passer and to challenge the defense deep when in scramble mode. Ideal size and does not mind stepping in and taking a hit in the pocket. He is tough and competitive. Does show an ability to get through progressions on occasions, though teams will want to question whether they are learned progressions or based on an ability to diagnose the defense. Improved each of his 3 full years as a starter, leader who his teammates seem to gravitate too. Cons: Everything is out of the shotgun and footwork still needs some work. While he is willing to step in under pressure he does have a tendency to get high with his throws when pressured from the interior. Plays small in big moments. It is a legitimate concern. I though he outplayed Baker Mayfield for 3 and a half quarters of the brilliant 2017 Bedlam game. But when the game was on the line Rudolph played his worst… and it was not an isolated occurrence. Ability to digest and then execute a full NFL playbook - the Oklahoma State offense is very much simplified and they run a small number of plays over and over. Deep ball - while he completed a high % of these in college his receivers often had to adjust and they can just float a little. Linked to the deep ball and partly the reason for it - his arm is only adequate. Certainly the weakest arm of the top 6 Quarterbacks in this draft. Draft Grade: The general feeling seems to be that Mason Rudolph has a lower ceiling than the consensus top 5 Quarterbacks in this draft. That may be true, but the one area of his game I really love - his intermediate accuracy - is one of the single most critical elements that all successful NFL Quarterbacks regardless of style have. I feel like the adjustment to a full NFL offense and playbook is the biggest question mark and if Rudolph can manage that he will have a good NFL career. 1st/2nd round borderline grade. Sam Darnold – Junior – Quarterback – University of Southern California Games watched: Norte Dame, UCLA, Texas, Ohio State, Washington State (all 2017); Penn State, Washington (2016) Initial Comments: Like a lot of people the first time I really watched Sam Darnold was the 2016 Bowl Game against Penn State and it was impossible not to come away impressed. His 2017 probably did disappoint a little against sky high expectations but the one thing that jumps off his tape is how pathetic USC’s offensive line was and that was a major contributory factor in my view. Pros: Love his arm. It is plenty big enough and he also displays outstanding touch. He knows when to throw the fastball and when to float one right into his receivers hands. Mobile and throws better on the run than anyone in the class. Good accuracy and an anticipatory thrower. Throws to spots before his receiver is out of his break and gives his guys a chance to make plays. Love his deep outs and corner routes - big boy NFL throws. Good size and he is tough as nails. The number of hits and sacks he took this season and yet he just keeps bouncing up and is ready to play the next play. I think he reads the field faster than anyone else in the class and regularly gets to his 2nd and 3rd guy in progressions. Competitor who never knows when he is beaten and has displayed throughout his college career an ability to bring his team back. Cons: Risk taker. The downside of his toughness in fighting through pressure and of his willingness to throw before his receiver is at a spot is that he tries to fit balls where they simply won’t go - particularly over the middle of the field where most of his INTs come. Needs to learn to take better care of the football. His footwork is what I would describe as fidgety. He rarely seems to really set himself a traditional throwing platform. Does go under centre very occasionally but almost all of his passing is done from the shotgun. There is evidence on his 2017 tape of him starting to see ghost pressures and either bail the pocket too early or run into genuine pressures as a result. I didn’t see it in the 2016 games I watched and I think it is probably a consequence of the shocking offensive line play infront of him but he needs to clear his head of that in time for his NFL career. Elongated wind up and far from perfect throwing motion. Draft Grade: Sam Darnold is the most fun of these Quarterbacks to watch. He has a bit of Brett Favre about him in that he is a gunslinger who wants to make a play every single down. He will need reigning in a little at the next level, needs to be a better decision maker and learn when the live for another down. However, the raw talent is there, the potential is there and if he can put it all together he is a franchise level NFL Quarterback. Mid 1st round grade. Lamar Jackson – Junior – Quarterback – Louisville Games watched: Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Purdue (all 2017); Clemson, Boston College, Florida State (all 2016); Boston College (2015) Initial Comments: The first thing to say with Lamar Jackson is that his 2016 film is markedly better than his 2015 film and his 2017 film is markedly better than his 2016 film. He began his college career as a running Quarterback who could throw a bit and he ended it as a genuine dynamic dual threat playmaker. Pros: Athleticism is off the charts and he is the only one of the ‘mobile’ Quarterbacks in this class who I think is athletic enough to be a weapon as a runner in the NFL. Really good arm strength and a nice smooth throwing motion with little wasted energy. Impressive touch on deep balls and throws both the go route and the fade equally effectively. Sells the run play action very impressively and makes the right decision based on the reaction of the linebackers the majority of the time. Played in an offense that ran some pro-style route combinations and Jackson demonstrated his ability to execute in those situations - particularly on simple high / low route combinations. Improved a significant amount as a passer each year as a starter, only just turned 21 and lots of room for continued growth. Cons: Bails the pocket too early too often. His poise, calm and willingness to stand in the pocket has improved in his 3 years as a starter but there is still a distance to go. Holds the ball too long. Is not a natural rhythm thrower and on too many occasions the ball is just not out on time. Doesn’t throw with anticipation and often seems to be waiting for guys to get open before releasing it. Footwork has improved but remains inconsistent. Often sets up with a narrow base which restricts his ability to throw accurately with his whole body aligned resulting in too many ‘arm balls’. Lacks touch in the intermediate range, especially in the middle of the field. For someone so mobile still needs to improve significantly his ability to throw on the run. Whether short range, intermediate range or deep range his throws on the run are regularly inaccurate and land at the feet of receivers. Draft Grade: My view on Lamar Jackson is pretty simple - if he never improves as a passer from what he is today then he is a bottom end starter / top end backup in the NFL. However, if the improvement arc that he has been on over his college career continues then he is a potential franchise Quarterback. There seems to be reasons to expect that improvement to continue but I think you are still being asked to do too much “projection” at this stage for me to put a 1st round grade on him, despite the sky high potential ceiling. Mid 2nd round grade. Luke Falk - Senior - Washington State Games watched: Stanford, California, Washington (all 2017); Minnesota, Arizona State (both 2016) Initial Comments: Evaluating Falk is difficult given that Washington State’s offense is such a gimmicky, horizontal passing, college spread scheme. However, Falk might be about to become the antidote to the rush of people always imploring Quarterbacks to stay in school for their senior year. His senior year was his worst as a starting college Quarterback whether you look at stats or the tape. Pros: Throws with nice touch, particularly in the middle of the field. Gets the ball out quickly and has nice release. Footwork is simple, consistent and repeatable. Plenty of big boy NFL throws on the tape - the deep out, the back shoulder fade and the seam route - he throws them all competently. Tough – has taken a beating physically over the past couple of season which might be a concern long term but he just seems to bounce back up every time. Hugely experienced, started for 3 and a half seasons in college. Cons: Often seems not the see edge rushers coming and appears to lack feel for the pass rush. As a result he takes too many sacks. Arm is adequate at best and struggles when asked to really drive the ball to the sideline from the far hash. Reminds me somewhat of Ryan Fitzpatrick in that his whole body seems to move when he tries to drive the ball. Accuracy is inconsistent. You will see him make a really nice throw into a tight spot and then miss his receiver out of the backfield on a simple swing route the very next play. Everything is from shotgun. Very little in terms of going through progressions, seems to freeze mentally when his first read is taken away. Too many interceptions, particularly seems to struggle reading zone defenses who bait him into throws and then jump routes. Doesn’t have the arm strength to compensate in those situations. Draft Grade: There are phases of play on Luke Falk’s tape where he looks like a potential starting Quarterback in the NFL…. but then there are phases where he looks like training camp fodder. His lack of consistency, combined with less than stellar physical tools (both arm and mobility) would suggest his ceiling is as an NFL backup. 4th round grade Josh Allen - Junior - Wyoming Games watched: New Mexico, Iowa, Boise State, Texas State, Colorado State (all 2017); San Diego State (x2), Nebraska (all 2016) Initial Comments: Josh Allen is a small school Quarterback with all the tools. Evaluating him is made more difficult by the lack of NFL level talent around him and the lack of NFL level talent opposing him. Pros: Prototypical size and a huge arm that generates incredible velocity and zip on his throws. Exceptional sideline thrower and throws the quick out and the deep out very nicely to both the near side and open side of the field. Mobile and keeps plays alive with his feet. Will pose a scrambling threat to defenses in the NFL. Has experience playing under centre and does a really good job of selling play action. Was required to read the whole field as a college Quarterback and to make throws with a higher degree of difficulty than some in this class, especially given he was surrounded by limited receiving talent that struggled to separate. Streaky and can catch fire at points in games once he gets a few completions in a row and his confidence starts to flow. Cons: Too many throws from an uneven base that end up inaccurate and even intercepted. Has to do a better job of setting his feet. Occasional wild inaccuracy even when feet are set. I refer to it as ‘natural inaccuracy’ because it occurs on plays where it is hard to attribute it to some sort mechanical breakdown in his fundamentals. Bails the pocket to early often in the absence of pressure. Seems almost to want to play in scramble drill mode. Doesn’t demonstrate much ability to throw with anticipation. Hard to judge whether it is a timing issue or a trust issue with his receivers. Could improve his touch - particularly on the intermediate range throws where he would sometimes benefit from taking a bit off the ball. Concerning that some of his worst games in 2017 came against the best opponents he faced. Draft Grade: Josh Allen has all the physical tools you look for in a modern day NFL Quarterback but as Doug Flutie said when you are 6ft as a Quarterback you have to prove you can play and when you are 6ft5 you have to prove you can’t. Josh Allen certainly hasn’t prove he can’t play but there are still very genuine accuracy concerns on his tape. There simply isn’t the production there on film to justify the hype despite an elite arm, great size and a tough approach to the game. To me he is a developmental Quarterback. 3rd round grade. Josh Rosen - Junior - UCLA Games watched: Texas A&M, USC, California, Arizona State, Washington (all 2017); San Diego State (x2), BYU, Texas A&M, Stanford (all 2016) Initial Comments: Josh Rosen has been tipped for super stardom for years and comes with the baggage and expectations that go along with that. You notice on his tape that he was helped by a good offensive line that kept his reasonably clean but hurt by receivers who dropped a succession of perfectly thrown balls. Pros: Good size and a very good arm both with regards to strength and touch. It’s an overused cliche when evaluating Quarterbacks but he really can make “all the throws”. Outstanding anticipatory thrower. Throws receivers open regularly, ball is out before they are out of their breaks. He already does this better than numerous NFL starting Quarterbacks. Accurate at all levels. Natural feel for where the ball needs to be and an ability to put it in a spot where the receiver doesn’t have to break stride when they catch it. Understands progressions, often gets to his 2nd and 3rd guy and generally makes good decisions when checking down vs challenging the defense deep. Has experience under centre, is comfortable there and whether in the gun or under centre is willing to climb the pocket when needed. Smooth release and good footwork. Cons: For his size he has too many balls batted at the line. Hard to pinpoint the reason for that but does raise some questions about whether he has a tendency to overlook what is happening at the line. Can get greedy and look too often for the big play. Needs to stay composed and find chain movers on a more regular basis at the NFL level. Pocket Quarterback only. Lacks mobility and is not comfortable once plays break down or the protection fails. Can still improve his pocket presence. He is good at moving up in the pocket but sometimes misses opportunities to just slide to his left or his right away from pressure to create a clearer throwing lane. Durability is a concern. Missed games injured in both 2016 and 2017. Only 9-8 as a starter over the past two years. Questions about his desire and coachability are hard to evaluate but it is legitimate to question whether he is a winner. Draft Grade: Josh Rosen must be a scout’s dream as an NFL prospect because when you turn the film on he checks so many of the standard boxes that you grade a prospect against. There are durability concerns and there is the speculation about his character and personality. However, the tape really does speak for itself and in so many of the most important elements you look for Josh Rosen is ahead of most college Quarterbacks. He is the best anticipatory thrower I have watched in college football and if he wants it bad enough I see there no way that he isn’t a successful NFL Quarterback. Top 5 grade. Mike White - Senior - Western Kentucky Games watched: Georgia State, Florida Atlantic (both 2017); Alabama, Memphis (both 2016) Initial Comments: I started very late on Mike White because he only really appeared on my radar with his very impressive Senior Bowl performance. Game film on him is not easy to find but I have watched enough to feel qualified to have a view. This report is less detailed but here are my thoughts. Pros: Decent size and a sneaky good arm. Cool and poised in clean pockets, gets the ball out of hands and makes sound decisions. Asked to read the field and demonstrates some ability to do so. Accurate - particularly in the short and intermediate range. Has solid fundamentals and always establishes himself a solid base before throwing. Cons: Really struggles with pressure. Gets skittish in the face of the rush - possibly caused by below average protection. Doesn’t throw with anticipation. Lacks mobility and looks awkward when forced off his spot. Similar to Josh Allen his worst games tended to come against the best opposition. Can lock onto targets too early in his progressions. Draft Grade: Mike White is an intriguing prospect to try and evaluate based on the film that is out there. His arm, size, accuracy and college production (albeit not at the top level of competition) give you pause before dismissing him as a late round backup level Quarterback. I think the strong Senior Bowl showing will encourage teams who might be considering taking a shot at him in the first batch of compensatory picks at the end of the 3rd round and I wouldn’t be surprised if he sneaks into the day two conversation. 3rd/4th round borderline grade. Okay folks.... flame away!! 19 23
Lothar Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 Great job, Gunner! You and Blokes and Bandit are the three amigos of prospect analysis on TBD. Given that you think Rosen seems the only sure fire franchise guy, what's your opinion on the other 6 or 7 when it comes to potential fits with the Bills' projected style of offense. Or is that too nebulous at the moment? 2
thebandit27 Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 Really nice work as always Gunner Obviously you know where I stand on these dudes, so it'll be fun to see how it all shakes out 1
Deranged Rhino Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 Thanks, Gunner. Always like reading your stuff.
oldmanfan Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 Very impressive work. Of course many of these guys will go way higher but you make the case why they shouldn't 1
peterpan Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 (edited) Gotta say that is an extremely accurate scouting job by my eye. Is very much in line with what I've seen on the tapes. Jackson really improving as a passer, and having serious potential, Darnold lacking a lot of technical stuff, Rosen being so good, It's scary how similar your views and mine are on all of these guys. Even the grades are similar!! Josh Allen I'd rank higher because of his arm talent but the rest of his game is mid rounder caliber. I'm curious as to what your qualifications are? Did you play QB in college or maybe coach somewhere? Edited March 31, 2018 by peterpan 1
GunnerBill Posted March 31, 2018 Author Posted March 31, 2018 14 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Really nice work as always Gunner Obviously you know where I stand on these dudes, so it'll be fun to see how it all shakes out Yep. I enjoyed reading yours the other day as ever Bandit.
NeverOutNick Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 13 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Really nice work as always Gunner Obviously you know where I stand on these dudes, so it'll be fun to see how it all shakes out Hey Bandit, what is your post called where you evaluate the QBs of this years draft? Curious to see the differences This was a nice write up especially the Mayfield, Rosen and Darnold evals but I disagree with Jackson's arm strength and accuracy, Allen's 3rd round grade (kid has all world ability), and Rudolph's decision making alone drops him out of 1st round discussion for me.
MiltonWaddams Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 Fantastic Gunner. Very un-biased and analytical approach and that is refreshing here. One month more and we'll see how this all pans out in terms of draft positioning, but this is a long game with all of these guys and I cannot say I've been more interested to see a draft full of QB's progression like I am with this one. Thank you.
Kirby Jackson Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 Great stuff as always GB!! We are so lucky to have you guys that dedicate so much time and expertise to educating the rest of us. Thank you!! 1
mannc Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 (edited) Bill, given that Rosen received your only top-five grade in this class, do you believe he’s the only one worth the Bills trading up for? (I think we both know that a lot of these guys will come off the board earlier than your grades would suggest they should.) Edited March 31, 2018 by mannc
Seanbillsfan2206 Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 So what you’re saying is that we shouldn’t have any problem grabbing a top QB this year..
Boatdrinks Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 It's always interesting to see a detailed anyalytical summary on these college QBs. Without the need based " bump" baked into the draft ranking that is so commonly seen. This years edition from GB is no exception. Bravo! 2
MJS Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 Wow. I pretty much agree with everything you said, including where these guys should be drafted. Nice job.
hondo in seattle Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 Gunner, thanks for this. Too many guys on the internet - even professional media types - often make strong pronouncements on this draft class without actually doing much film study. So I read your evaluations with interest because you're different - you've clearly done your research and have a good eye. Much appreciated.
BadLandsMeanie Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 That was fantastic. Thank you for all work and research and for writing it all so clearly.
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 You know I love your work and you didn't disappoint! Thanks for putting in all the effort.
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