bills522 Posted April 2, 2018 Posted April 2, 2018 Please don't draft Josh Allen Please don't draft Josh Allen Please don't draft Josh Allen Ple...
NewEra Posted April 2, 2018 Posted April 2, 2018 Trade up for Baker or Rosen. If too expensive, jackson at 12 or 22
DCOrange Posted April 2, 2018 Author Posted April 2, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Doc said: Did Solak do any studies on the previous QB classes? No. I think he mentioned back around the Senior Bowl that he was hoping to go back and retroactively add QBs from past draft classes to the dataset too but I'm not sure if that's still in the plans or not. Edit: I talked to him a few minutes ago and he said that he plans on working on it in the summer Edited April 2, 2018 by DCOrange 1
YattaOkasan Posted April 2, 2018 Posted April 2, 2018 Thoroughly enjoyed this analysis. I think I am getting behind taking jackson at 12 and keep the rest of our picks.
Tyrod's friend Posted April 2, 2018 Posted April 2, 2018 Great read. In five years, whenever fans on message boards say "college stats don't matter!" someone will point to Baker Mayfield's 70% completion rate and what he's done in professional football. (Followed by "Colt McCoy!"). And someone will refer back to this study and point out no matter how well versed/thought out this analysis is that the author didn't make even a passing mention of the fact that Josh Rosen has a concussed history. And why his issues within the pocket and his inabilities to improvise would ultimately doom him.
Guest K-GunJimKelly12 Posted April 2, 2018 Posted April 2, 2018 This is a fantastic write up, thank you for posting this.
buffaloaggie Posted April 2, 2018 Posted April 2, 2018 5 hours ago, DCOrange said: No. I think he mentioned back around the Senior Bowl that he was hoping to go back and retroactively add QBs from past draft classes to the dataset too but I'm not sure if that's still in the plans or not. Edit: I talked to him a few minutes ago and he said that he plans on working on it in the summer A retroactive study would tend to make me think the study's hindsight will be 20-20. Still, that doesn't take away from this study, which is impressive. I do like your summary of his report. The chart makes me believe the best thing to do is trade up to get Mayfield, but if not, draft Jackson and Lauletta, hoping one of them pans out. Bills will need all their picks most likely. I keep thinking with our OL, we need a mobile QB, but hopefully one that can hit a receiver in stride.
Tenhigh Posted April 2, 2018 Posted April 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, buffaloaggie said: A retroactive study would tend to make me think the study's hindsight will be 20-20. Still, that doesn't take away from this study, which is impressive. I do like your summary of his report. The chart makes me believe the best thing to do is trade up to get Mayfield, but if not, draft Jackson and Lauletta, hoping one of them pans out. Bills will need all their picks most likely. I keep thinking with our OL, we need a mobile QB, but hopefully one that can hit a receiver in stride. I'm sure there'd be a little 20/20, but you can only skew it so far. I'd be interested to see what this data shows for QBs going back for a few years and see how it translates to guys that have been in the pros for a few years. 1
buffaloaggie Posted April 2, 2018 Posted April 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, Tenhigh said: I'm sure there'd be a little 20/20, but you can only skew it so far. I'd be interested to see what this data shows for QBs going back for a few years and see how it translates to guys that have been in the pros for a few years. That was my thought exactly. Once he gets a little history behind him, he'll be the most sought after scout in the NFL, if his projections pan out.
Tyrod's friend Posted April 2, 2018 Posted April 2, 2018 1 hour ago, buffaloaggie said: A retroactive study would tend to make me think the study's hindsight will be 20-20. Still, that doesn't take away from this study, which is impressive. I do like your summary of his report. The chart makes me believe the best thing to do is trade up to get Mayfield, but if not, draft Jackson and Lauletta, hoping one of them pans out. Bills will need all their picks most likely. I keep thinking with our OL, we need a mobile QB, but hopefully one that can hit a receiver in stride. What makes you think the interest in Mayfield isn't a smoke screen, and that Lamar has been the target from Day 1 and to get him roughly at #12? According to this guys report Lamar is a justifiable #1 overall draft pick. We almost know with surety that the Giants and Browns aren't going to take him. Meanwhile Beane is beating the drums about wanting to go high and get one of the "big three" and doing misdirection. For all we know, Beane is the one spreading the vicious rumors about not being able to get a meeting.
jrober38 Posted April 2, 2018 Posted April 2, 2018 This is outstanding information. I just read through the top guys, but this more or less summarizes what I've thought, which is that Rosen and Mayfield are going to be really good, and Darnold and Allen are overrated due to the fact that they "look" like franchise QBs. Jackson's evaluation is particularly interesting. If we walk away with one of Rosen, Mayfield or Jackson I'll be pretty happy. Hopefully one of them is available with the 12th pick so we don't have to trade away the rest of our picks.
John from Riverside Posted April 2, 2018 Posted April 2, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 1:43 PM, DCOrange said: Benjamin Solak published a study during the Senior Bowl where he basically charted every pass that he could find from the Senior Bowl QBs and sliced and diced it in a million different ways; the most notable one to me being the differentiation between an "accurate" pass (basically think of this as catchable) and a well-placed pass (maximizing YAC, protecting the WR from the DB, throwing it where only the WR can get it, etc.) He's now finished charting all of the non-Senior Bowl QBs and has published the overall findings which you can view at the link below. https://d3d2maoophos6y.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/25/2018/03/30143754/2018-Contextualized-Quarterbacking.pdf If you are not a Lamar Jackson fan......dont read this
jrober38 Posted April 2, 2018 Posted April 2, 2018 Just read the whole thing. The talk of Allen going in the top 5 is pure lunacy. He's the most inaccurate QB in the draft. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted April 3, 2018 Posted April 3, 2018 I finally got through the bulk of this thing. Thanks for posting! My thoughts that Mayfield is best-in-class are partly reaffirmed here, though he argues more strongly for Rosen. From the beginning I've said Mayfield, Darnold and Jackson are the 3 guys I'll be most excited to draft. This certainly doesn't change that. Though it's interesting the very direct tie the analyst makes between Lauletta and Buffalo.
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