NDT Scouting's Contextualized QB Study

[DCOrange]

Benjamin Solak published a study during the Senior Bowl where he basically charted every pass that he could find from the Senior Bowl QBs and sliced and diced it in a million different ways; the most notable one to me being the differentiation between an "accurate" pass (basically think of this as catchable) and a well-placed pass (maximizing YAC, protecting the WR from the DB, throwing it where only the WR can get it, etc.)

 

He's now finished charting all of the non-Senior Bowl QBs and has published the overall findings which you can view at the link below.

 

https://d3d2maoophos6y.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/25/2018/03/30143754/2018-Contextualized-Quarterbacking.pdf

[Solomon Grundy]

35 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Benjamin Solak published a study during the Senior Bowl where he basically charted every pass that he could find from the Senior Bowl QBs and sliced and diced it in a million different ways; the most notable one to me being the differentiation between an "accurate" pass (basically think of this as catchable) and a well-placed pass (maximizing YAC, protecting the WR from the DB, throwing it where only the WR can get it, etc.)

 

He's now finished charting all of the non-Senior Bowl QBs and has published the overall findings which you can view at the link below.

 

https://d3d2maoophos6y.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/25/2018/03/30143754/2018-Contextualized-Quarterbacking.pdf

This is some outstanding work by Ben Solak!! It's very detail oriented!! If you want some REAL, FACTUAL, stats on the incoming QB prospects its some recommended reading. You will be very surprised by the findings 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

7 minutes ago, the skycap said:

This is some outstanding work by Ben Solak!! It's very detail oriented!! If you want some REAL, FACTUAL, stats on the incoming QB prospects its some recommended reading. You will be very surprised by the findings 

 

I can only guess why you're excited about it

 

[Solomon Grundy]

3 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

I can only guess why you're excited about it

 

YES!!! I LOVE FACTS!!

[HappyDays]

This is incredible. For analytics lovers like me this is porn. I'll copy and paste the relevant info on the top prospects in my next post... 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

This is incredible. For analytics lovers like me this is porn. I'll copy and paste the relevant info on the top prospects in my next post... 

They'll call BS!!

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

This is incredible. For analytics lovers like me this is porn. I'll copy and paste the relevant info on the top prospects in my next post... 

 

#eyeopener

[LABILLBACKER]

And the moral of the story is take Mayfield or Rosen. Great analytics!

[Green Lightning]

Backs up my belief in Rosen and Mayfield. Those are my two favorites. Interesting  on Jackson and Rudolf.

[HappyDays]

Here are his evaluations on the top prospects if you don't feel like looking through the whole document. Please do not quote this entire post...

 

Note: It helps to know he distinguishes between "catchable ball" and "ball placement." A catchable ball is one where the receiver could conceivably have gotten one hand on it and one foot in bounds. Even an intercepted throw could be catchable. Good ball placement is when YAC is maximized. An interception would only be considered good ball placement if it bounced out of the receiver's hands or something like that.

 

Josh Allen:

 

The Skinny: Josh Allen’s sheet here only re-affirms what I already believed: you’re drafting a player solely on a potential, no matter where you take Allen. Allen makes some jaw-dropping throws, and certainly has some generational talent. But the risks he takes when asked to process/decide beyond his first read or under pressure are absurd, and he cannot be trusted on an NFL field with his sporadic ball placement. On top of his poor decisionmaking as a passer, Allen scrambled on nearly 1 out of every 10 dropbacks and took a sack on 1 out of every 13. He simply is not yet an NFL quarterback—just a dude with insane contact balance, nice speed, and a cannon attached to his right shoulder. Allen very well can become an NFL quarterback, but a team investing in Allen faces the two steepest challenges a young QB can face: improving decision-making (especially under pressure) and improving accuracy

 

Looking Forward: Well here we are. More numbers that don’t like Josh Allen. Let’s firmly entrenched ourselves in our previous assertations; let us mire in that which is familiar, comfortable, and safe. This is the rub, the rigmarole, the rigid march of analytics and film. I just don’t buy that. These numbers reflect film, not obscure it. They can help us determine the path to success for these young QBs, no matter how narrow that path may be. Let’s draw that path. Ideally, Allen’s given time to sit and learn the ins and outs of an NFL playbook, as his greatest weakness is his post-snap processing, which casts cascading detriments onto his decision-making and accuracy. Wyoming tape does not show much development in this regard, so a QB coaching staff simply must make a concerted effort on improving Allen’s recognition, patience, and decisionmaking against a shifting defense. This is markedly harder to do when he’s also, you know, starting. So sitting is huge. A situation like Patrick Mahomes’ last year is a good model, so the New York Giants with Eli Manning stand as the best avenue for Josh. HC Pat Shurmur is known for adapting his scheme to fit his players, so more good news for Josh. He’ll be rolled out a ton, given 2– and 3–man concepts on half-fields with one-man keys, and he’ll regularly have deep options (though it’s arguable that that’s actually bad for him). If Allen’s to go in the Top-5, the Giants are his best bet.

 

Sam Darnold:

 

The Skinny: Sam Darnold is young, talented, and a gamble. In Tee Martin’s quickhitting shot game scheme, Darnold’s lightning quick release (don’t buy the narrative otherwise) and ability to release from wonky platforms helped him massively. Darnold also throws a very solid deep ball, accentuated by his ability to extend and create space downfield. But the lack of intermediate targets and accuracy are harrowing, as is the high incidence of interceptable passes and general shakiness under all contexts. When Darnold is on, there are Aaron Rodgers-esque flashes. But there are clear questions regarding risk management/decision-making, frequency of full field processing, and consistently beneficial mechanics. In short: there are the typical questions that surround a young quarterback. Rosen, Jackson, and Mayfield are all surer bets than Darnold, but his ceiling is right up there with the rest of the class.

 

Looking Forward: When drafting Sam Darnold, you shouldn’t be too fearful of scheme: he can make every throw, he’s demonstrating strides when reading defensive leverage, and he has the requisite traits (quick release, deep ball, mobility) to fulfill unique schematic demands. I’m most excited by spread concepts, but then again, I’m always excited by spread concepts in the NFL. That with which you need to concern yourself, however, is time. Sam Darnold lacks the polish and consistent game tape of a #1 overall pick, but if you choose to take him early because of his ceiling, you better be willing to do everything it takes to get him there—and that means letting him develop, to the tune of his own drum. Sitting him isn’t a must here—it only is if Darnold needs it. Darnold, known for his gamerism even as a 19-year-old, may benefit most from a trial by fire. Start him early, let him have multi-pick games, let him fail on game-winning drives, let him learn through experience. He may prove fearful, stepping onto the field without full playbook comprehension and familiarity with the team— then sit him. Either way, you should know you aren’t winning with Darnold in 2019. But if you do it right, by 2020, you should be competitive in every game. And in 2021 and beyond...

 

Lamar Jackson:

 

The Skinny: Jackson is pure lightning in a QB bottle. Lamar, like many naturally gifted passers before him, tends to stray too far away from his mechanics, which leads to some ugly misses. But when categorizing a huge miss and a regular miss the same (uncatchable; poorly placed), we discover a key truth underneath our subconscious corrections and biases: Lamar is an accurate quarterback. His catchable numbers aren’t amazing, no—but his placement numbers are. When he throws, he is acutely aware of where the ball belongs relative to coverage. A sub-4% INTable number speaks to this, as does the data into tight windows and beyond his first read. Lamar has more playmaking ability than any quarterback in this class by leaps and bounds, due in large part to his legs—but don’t miss it: this is an adept college thrower who can run multiple styles of offense, hit every throw, and is worthy of the #1 overall selection in any class.

 

Looking Forward: There’s a good deal of malarkey that circulates about Lamar in Bobby Petrino’s offense. Here’s what I know from the data: Lamar attempted the highest amount of between-the-hashes throws of any QB in this class, which inherently allow for more variance in coverage/more complex reads. Lamar had one of the lowest Target Share “Behind LoS,” so his offense wasn’t chock ful o’ layups—though he did mark high in Target Share “0-9,” which speaks to the frequency of meshes, slants, and quick outs in Louisville. Lamar also had one of the highest marks in Attempt Share “Beyond First Read,” which speaks both to his willingness to hang in the pocket and progress through his targets, and his ability to compute on the fly from outside of the pocket. Markedly, Lamar had a low number Attempt Share “Tight Window,” which does allude to a spread-out offense with a wider margin of accuracy error. But in Tight Windows, Lamar was an adept thrower, which helps mitigate those concerns. I don’t know how better to convince an NFL mind that this is a pro-ready thrower, than with these numbers. Lamar would thrive in any system, as he operates well from the pocket and excels outside of it as well, but rhythm throws with 3– or 5–step drops seem to help his footwork laziness. Anything with spread or West Coast ideas makes a ton of sense, in regards to maximizing Jackson’s legs. The Jets, Giants, and Chargers get me pumped.

 

Kyle Lauletta:

 

The Skinny: The ball goes where Kyle Lauletta wants it to go. His release is lightningquick, and while his mental processing isn’t as snappy, the combination of the two allow him to read and react to tight windows/defensive leverage very nicely. Mechanically pure, Lauletta generates all of his velocity from his lower half and through his core, which helps him remain accurate on high-velocity throws. However, he does not have an impressive arm , and labors to reach even 40-45 yards down the field. Without a clean base, his velocity notably falls off, though he still remains competitively accurate when on the run. Despite being listed at 6’3, a high incidence of Lauletta’s throws were batted at the line of scrimmage, which puts in question his height and release point. Lauletta struggles notably beyond his first read, in part due to a poor OL and lackluster WRs. Lauletta warrants a Draft selection and long-term look at backup in the NFL

 

Looking Forward: Lauletta can no longer be called the sleeper of the QB class—he’s far too known of a quantity, and teams are beginning to understand the vast potential with him. Perhaps this is good, as my evaluation will be less corrective on the perceived lack of hype. Lauletta’s arm won’t blow you away, no—but it does not preclude him from NFL success. It is an average NFL arm, and the limitations thereof are mitigated by Lauletta’s snappy mental processing and silky smooth release. When the ball hits the air, however, we see one of the most accurate passers in this class: under almost every context, Lauletta is a top quartile passer in terms of ball placement. Tight windows, on the move, outside of the pocket—Lauletta’s ball placement is virtually untouched! This is not just an accurate passer: this is a precise passer with the flexibility to operate under adverse conditions. Understanding scheme fit for Lauletta is accordingly attuned to these strengths/limitations—likely the strongest QB in this class between the ears, I have little worry regarding Lauletta learning a system. However, the Erhardt-Perkins inspirations in Buffalo and New England would benefit from Lauletta’s processing speed and placement, as would some West Coast mentalities that focus on the short game (Arizona, Denver). Lauletta is a plug-and-play starter, but a year to sit and adjust to NFL speed wouldn’t hurt— situations like New Orleans and Los Angeles (Chargers) make sense in that regard.

 

Baker Mayfield:

 

The Skinny: Baker Mayfield’s film illustrates an exceptionally accurate quarterback— from the pocket, on the run, pressured, in variable arm angles, moving through his reads, everything—who is only limited by his gamer mentality and occasionally, his height. Baker uses the entirety of his pliable frame to generate velocity. Mechanically, it allows him to reach 60+ yards down the field, but can occasionally lead to a slingshot motion that drives the ball high to its target. Baker’s typically high placement is more prevalent when he cannot set a base, and especially when bodies obstruct his throwing hallway, in which he is forced into a high release point due to his smaller frame. It is not yet an issue, but it is certainly worthy of note. Beyond that, Baker’s best trait—beyond his accuracy—is his marriage of creativity and arm talent. He can make wild, unscripted plays, and projects as a first-round quarterback in a spread/WCO.

 

Looking Forward: Baker Mayfield is a starting NFL quarterback. Questions about his moral fiber and height are intangible, and must be addressed by individual teams. Questions about the freedom of Oklahoma’s system, and Baker’s ability to throw with anticipation, we can more readily address: Baker attempted as many “Tight Window” throws as anyone in this class, and delivered accurately, well-placed balls at a higher clip than any other quarterback. He can anticipate defenders’ spacing and range, and deliver the football accordingly. He certainly did benefit from Oklahoma’s spread system—he led qualifying QBs in % of YAC gained, as well—but we can comfortably say Baker’s system does not preclude him from hitting the tough throws. He may have to ingrain timing and drops (scheme-dependent, of course) into his system, but there is no reason to believe he will struggle to do this at all. Throw in the minimal-to-average drop-off in accuracy and placement when under pressure, beyond the first read, and changing platforms, and Mayfield can do it all. Baker projects best into a spread-style offense, of course—but a West Coast offense fits him snugly as well. The Giants’ new system under Pat Shurmur makes sense, as does their brethren, the Jets and the Rick Dennison/Jeremy Bates duo. Teams running strict timing offenses should likely steer clear of Mayfield—but he doesn’t strike me as much of a Bill Belichick guy, anyway.

 

Josh Rosen:

 

The Skinny: Josh Rosen is, in my eyes, the best QB prospect to come out since Mariota. Maybe Luck—it’s been a hot second since I watched Mariota. Rosen’s game perfectly encapsulates the placement/accurate distinction: while his accuracy numbers run right around average for the top QBs in this class, his placement numbers (beyond the line of scrimmage) stay elite to all regions of the field. Rosen is a bit of a purist: he struggles beyond his first read, from the move platform, and outside of the pocket. But Rosen was limited by the Jim Mora offense, in which he attempted less than 40% beyond 9 yards down the field despite excellent anticipation, field vision, and ball placement. Still young (only 4 months older than Sam Darnold) and growing, Rosen has yet to hit his ceiling, and an improved offensive line and more advantageous target share to his skill set will unlock how dangerous a sniper he can be.

 

Looking Forward: Josh Rosen can play in any scheme. He is the best passer in the class. I don’t know what you want me to say. Him good. Let’s say run a West Coast spacing attack with an emphasis on deep shots, like Hue Jackson has in Cleveland: Rosen has the quick release and pinpoint accuracy to run the machine, and his deep ball is as deadly as anyone’s. What if you’re more spready, like Pat Shurmur has been in his time before the Giants? Rosen has excellent pre- and post-snap recognition, as well as excellent ball velocity, to diagnose and strike horizontal weakness. West Coast, like Jackson, with some Air Raid sprinkled in? Jeremy Bates and the New York Jets would be mighty pleased. Any coordinator worth his salt will recognize that they can run their system through Rosen, but should also sculpt their designs to keep him in the pocket/protected. Rosen does not need development, but I believe he will continue to develop in his crispness moving from his first read, and his willingness to push it deep. I think a steady but unthreatening veteran presence would benefit Rosen, both in terms of how to hold himself as an NFL QB, and in taking full control over an offensive system that will hopefully and finally maximize his wonderful strengths.

 

Mason Rudolph:

 

The Skinny: Mason Rudolph presents an interesting evaluation and a tough riddle. He throws a very catchable football, but his ball placement is overestimated, likely due to the wide-open nature of his offense. Well-built, Rudolph has a strong arm that can reach 60+ yards down the field, and his greatest strength is his downfield accuracy and placement—but again, one wonders the extent to which scheme/WRs assisted with those numbers. Surprising, perhaps, are Rudolph’s numbers beyond his first read, outside of the pocket, and even throwing into tight windows—there are signs of promise in all three, which indicate that Rudolph could indeed grow beyond his scheme. Rudolph’s struggles with ball placement, zip, and offplatform limit him as a creative passer, but he certainly has fringe starting potential in a vertical-based offense with a strong offensive line.

 

Looking Forward: Rudolph is one of the most scheme-reliant projections at the QB position in this year’s Draft. In order to succeed as an NFL quarterback, Mason Rudolph must be given the opportunity to throw the ball deep, as his greatest strength is his accuracy 30/40+ yards down the field (and his placement isn’t too bad either). Rudolph does better beyond his first read than most would have you believe, but that’s less about his progression speed in the pocket, and more a reflection of his escapability and trust in his receivers to work on the fly. The tight window numbers also speak to this idea: Rudolph just has a really good understanding of the game. He doesn’t panic; he knows his limitations; he maximizes his teammates. Rudolph has the mental fortitude and intangible aspects to immediately start in the NFL. But pressure really screws with Rudolph’s finely-tuned machinery, and his ball placement to the short and intermediate is not what it should be to consistently make the layups and move an offense. Teams interested in Rudolph as a starter should be willing to incorporate spread concepts, with tons of option routes and pre-snap checks to open up the deep game. A willing investment in the offensive line is also a must. Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh all could make sense. Any team, regardless of scheme, should see top-tier backup potential in Rudolph as well.

[MTBill]

The more I read, the more I like Jackson.  I really think the Bills may target pick #4 if there is at least 1 of their top guys available.  I think moving to 2 is insanely expensive and Beane isn't going to pay what the Giants will demand.  One of the other aspects that suck is we have 2 1st rounders - so every trade partner is going to expect both of those at the onset - even though that totally exceeds most trade value schemes for picks other than #1.  Of course - that does perhaps mitigate the other picks which might be otherwise thrown in.  The Jests so overpaid for #3 that is crazy.

 

I think if 2 of their top 3 QBs are still available at 4 - they maybe gamble and try to convince the Colts to move down again - though could be tough.  If only we still had a player they needed for trade - I think our dead cap space issue will haunt us as far as other trades go.

[billsredneck1]

wow, great read. the more i think about it, if we can't land mayfield and we go non qb with 1st rd picks....and someone scarfs up rudolph before our 2nd round pick, i'm kinda thinking lauletta would be a good prospect.....considering that a.j. does good.

 

idk 4 more weeks is gonna kill me. sheesh

[The Bills Blog]

What am I missing? The two paragraphs about Lauletta are wildly contradictory.

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, the skycap said:

This is some outstanding work by Ben Solak!! It's very detail oriented!! If you want some REAL, FACTUAL, stats on the incoming QB prospects its some recommended reading. You will be very surprised by the findings 

Its a one game and really a sample of a little over a quarter for some of them.  Exactly how much are you going to learn? How much is actually useful?

 

If he did this for every game they played in college then it would be different. This is near meaningless

 

 

Edited March 31, 2018 by matter2003

[Max Fischer]

Very impressive study. Reinforced my desire to get Rosen and Jackson, made me feel better about Mayfield (but still nagging doubts) but made me more confused about Rudolph. 

34 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Its a one game and really a sample of a little over a quarter for some of them.  Exactly how much are you going to learn? How much is actually useful?

 

If he did this for every game they played in college then it would be different. This is near meaningless

 

 

 

Well, “Every 2017 throw of a quarterback available to me was graded.”  That’s pretty comprehensive. 

[Big Turk]

12 minutes ago, Max Fischer said:

Very impressive study. Reinforced my desire to get Rosen and Jackson, made me feel better about Mayfield (but still nagging doubts) but made me more confused about Rudolph. 

 

Well, “Every 2017 throw of a quarterback available to me was graded.”  That’s pretty comprehensive. 

Thats better...the OP made it sound like it was only the senior bowl

[Doc]

So...Lauletta in the 2nd.

[LeGOATski]

13 hours ago, The Bills Blog said:

What am I missing? The two paragraphs about Lauletta are wildly contradictory.

Yeah, that seemed odd. What I came away with is that he'd be a great QB, if he only had the arm talent.

[aceman_16]

16 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

And the moral of the story is take Mayfield or Rosen. Great analytics!

Or Jackson UNLESS you are confusing "moral" with bias.

[DCOrange]

Related: a couple of tables summarizing some of the findings from this report:

 

green = good relative to the other QBs. Red is the opposite. 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2018 by DCOrange

[BuffaloSol]

11 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Related: a couple of tables summarizing some of the findings from this report:

 

green = good relative to the other QBs. Red is the opposite. 

 

 

Kyle Lauletta!?!?!