billspro Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 What do you think the Bills draft odds are for each of the QBs? This is is what I am going with after too many hours deliberating this: Baker Mayfield 35% Josh Rosen 30% Mason Rudolph 15% Sam Darnold 5% Mike White 5% Lamar Jackson 5% Other QBs 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulus Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 I'm suprised there are not real odds out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted March 30, 2018 Author Share Posted March 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Paulus said: I'm suprised there are not real odds out there. Same, I feel like Vegas should have something on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K D Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 (edited) Baker Mayfield 30% Josh Rosen 20% Josh Allen 20% Sam Darnold 15% Lamar Jackson 5% Mason Rudolph 5% Other QBs 5% Based on how the draft will go, not based on who they would have liked to draft Edited March 30, 2018 by kdiggz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 1 minute ago, kdiggz said: Baker Mayfield 30% Josh Rosen 25% Josh Allen 15% Sam Darnold 15% Lamar Jackson 5% Mason Rudolph 5% Other QBs 5% Based on how the draft will go, not based on who they would have liked to draft Flip Rudolph and Darnold, I'd keep the rest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K D Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Commonsense said: Flip Rudolph and Darnold, I'd keep the rest. i'm holding out hope they can trade to 2. i wouldn't want them to pick Darnold there but I think if they got that high and Cleveland took Allen then Darnold would be their choice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Who Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, kdiggz said: Baker Mayfield 30% Josh Rosen 20% Josh Allen 20% Sam Darnold 15% Lamar Jackson 5% Mason Rudolph 5% Other QBs 5% Based on how the draft will go, not based on who they would have liked to draft I think the relative odds here are about right. I suspect we can trade up to six or so, thus I think the odds of getting Mayfield are actually somewhat higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K D Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Just now, Dr. Who said: I think the relative odds here are about right. I suspect we can trade up to six or so, thus I think the odds of getting Mayfield are actually somewhat higher. there are certainly a lot of unknowns at this point. if we stay at 12 then our odds of getting any of the top 4 guys is a combined 5% so who knows where we can trade up. our choices at 2 would be different than if we were at 4 and different than if we were at 6, etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 I like this but only because, now that all the pre draft analysis is starting to come to an end, I have decided that I like Baker Mayfield for the Bills at 6, possibly a bit lower. It just seems like betting against this guy is a mistake. He is highly, highly motivated to prove all the naysayers wrong. I don't necessarily disagree with those who find numerous faults and weaknesses in his game. I just don't think they matter all that much compared to what he brings to the table in terms of being absolutely consumed and obsessed with winning football games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Watkins101 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 I could see the percents adding up to over 100% based on the possibility of drafting 2 Qbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrbojanglezs Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Im hoping for Mayfield 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RalphWilson'sNewWar Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 I would think the odds for Jackson and Rudolph would be the highest simply due to those two being the easiest and the least barriers to get to for Buffalo. 1.) Jackson 2.) Rudolph 3) Mayfield 4a.) Allen 4b.) Rosen 5) Other QB 6) Darnold Again i I feel this order is based on my view of the path of least resistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K D Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Watkins101 said: I could see the percents adding up to over 100% based on the possibility of drafting 2 Qbs they won't. they like Peterman for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RalphWilson'sNewWar Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Mrbojanglezs said: Im hoping for Mayfield You study mayfield? i love the accuracy numbers. But question, since I don’t know...maybe you do. are his completion numbers legit? Or scheme/manufactured good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 50% Baker 50% Allen Just my hunch based on nothing, but I think we are going to move into position to secure Baker as a worst case scenario pretty soon. Then I think we'll work on getting the guy we really want (Allen) at 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Who Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Just now, Chuck Wagon said: 50% Baker 50% Allen Just my hunch based on nothing, but I think we are going to move into position to secure Baker as a worst case scenario pretty soon. Then I think we'll work on getting the guy we really want (Allen) at 2. Hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrbojanglezs Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said: You study mayfield? i love the accuracy numbers. But question, since I don’t know...maybe you do. are his completion numbers legit? Or scheme/manufactured good? Im not the right guy to ask for that kind of high level analysis, don't have time for it. I landed on Mayfield based on watching his highlights, combine etc. From everything I have seen and heard from analysts...yes his accuracy #s are legit. Plus I like his gritty competitiveness, I think he is a good fit for Buffalo. Edited March 30, 2018 by Mrbojanglezs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: Hope you're right. Me too. Just reading tea leaves. Tampa is already talking about being open to moving down. If Denver or Indy is as well, I think they'll just as likely take the picks. Teams are getting to the point where they've got guys grouped, if Denver / Tampa / Indy has 1 or 2 guys at the top of their boards that they pretty much know is gone, then know they are just as likely to get a guy in their second group at 12 as ~6, I think they move quick to secure the extra assets. Bringing Baker in yet again (4th time with him) feels like they are making 110% sure he's a guy they are willing to bank on. It's entirely possible Gettleman told them they want Nelson and won't drop back further than the 5-7 range. Make the move up now to secure one of the top 4 guys and strengthen your position with the Giants, but be 100% sure you can live with what you end up with should something go sideways with the Giants. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smuvtalker Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 45 minutes ago, kdiggz said: i'm holding out hope they can trade to 2. i wouldn't want them to pick Darnold there but I think if they got that high and Cleveland took Allen then Darnold would be their choice Ditto. The closer and closer we get to the draft, I can't help but feel more and more uneasy by the day. I'm just praying we pull the trigger and hop into that number two spot PRE-draft, as opposed to waiting until draft night and seeing "how things pan out". Lucky for us I don't make these decisions or my impatience would've surely rocketed this team straight downward into the trash can. I do trust McBeane has a plan A, B, C, D, and even E for all likely scenarios, and hell even if we don't come away with one of the Big 4, I'm sure our team WILL be better going forward. If we are jumping to 2 I'm hoping for Rosen or Mayfield 1st, but like you, wouldn't be depressed with Darnold there, as he is still a consensus "close to a sure thing" as there is in this draft. Still can't quite wrap my mind around the thought that Allen is more and more being discussed as the overall #1. I wouldn't mind the Bills taking him at 12 if he's still available, opposed to Jackson, who I would be more comfortable with us taking at 22, although I'm guessing he'll be gone by then. #2, with Rosen or Mayfield or bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, smuvtalker said: Ditto. The closer and closer we get to the draft, I can't help but feel more and more uneasy by the day. I'm just praying we pull the trigger and hop into that number two spot PRE-draft, as opposed to waiting until draft night and seeing "how things pan out". Lucky for us I don't make these decisions or my impatience would've surely rocketed this team straight downward into the trash can. I do trust McBeane has a plan A, B, C, D, and even E for all likely scenarios, and hell even if we don't come away with one of the Big 4, I'm sure our team WILL be better going forward. If we are jumping to 2 I'm hoping for Rosen or Mayfield 1st, but like you, wouldn't be depressed with Darnold there, as he is still a consensus "close to a sure thing" as there is in this draft. Still can't quite wrap my mind around the thought that Allen is more and more being discussed as the overall #1. I wouldn't mind the Bills taking him at 12 if he's still available, opposed to Jackson, who I would be more comfortable with us taking at 22, although I'm guessing he'll be gone by then. #2, with Rosen or Mayfield or bust. I'm slightly discouraged something didn't happen during the owners meetings. But I have a hunch Beane walked out of there knowing what the price would be for #2. Either it's something we aren't in position to pay right now requiring one more little jump up and we want to be sure we are comfortable if we did get stuck, or we just want to be sure the #2 (or #1) guy on our board is that much above the #4. I completely feel the uneasiness, but these guys know they need to find a real answer at QB and I simply don't believe their evaluations on a guy like Mason Rudolph is THAT much different than everything else that's come out about him, to the point were they are comfortable with a day 2 caliber player being their answer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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