NastyNateSoldiers Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 17 hours ago, Figster said: Josh Allen from a wonderlic standpoint is the smartest QB in the draft class with by far the strongest arm and an ability to hit small windows of opportunity because of it. Is Allen a project, absolutely and why we have McCarron. Allen is our guy... So u wanna trade the house for a project ? He fits passes into tight windows sometimes while other times he throws them 10yds over the players head. This is how i see it u can have all the tools in your shed but that doesn't make u a mechanic. U can have all the ingredients u need to cook something but that doesn't make u a chef. In this case Allen has the physical tools but lacks bigtime in the mental areas of the gm . It can not be overstated how important the internal clock is in a QBs mind. He just doesn't have it and this will be his downfall. If the Bills are looking for tools to develop we can get a guy for free his name is Colin Kapernick. Matter of fact at least Kap has some great success on the NFL level. Kap has some of the same physical gifts that Allen has even his arm is comparable in pure strength. They both have the same deficiencies as a passers. Touch, Accuracy, Timing, Anticipation are both issues for these 2 players. Might as well sign Kap and develop him instead of paying the house for the same type of guy. 3
Scorp83 Posted March 31, 2018 Author Posted March 31, 2018 1 hour ago, NastyNateSoldiers said: So u wanna trade the house for a project ? He fits passes into tight windows sometimes while other times he throws them 10yds over the players head. This is how i see it u can have all the tools in your shed but that doesn't make u a mechanic. U can have all the ingredients u need to cook something but that doesn't make u a chef. In this case Allen has the physical tools but lacks bigtime in the mental areas of the gm . It can not be overstated how important the internal clock is in a QBs mind. He just doesn't have it and this will be his downfall. If the Bills are looking for tools to develop we can get a guy for free his name is Colin Kapernick. Matter of fact at least Kap has some great success on the NFL level. Kap has some of the same physical gifts that Allen has even his arm is comparable in pure strength. They both have the same deficiencies as a passers. Touch, Accuracy, Timing, Anticipation are both issues for these 2 players. Might as well sign Kap and develop him instead of paying the house for the same type of guy. Hmmmm.... smh... couldn't agree with you more
Cripple Creek Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 1:03 AM, Scorp83 said: Allow my guy Chris Brown to provide some facts on Allen. If he was at 12... the Bills will draft Calvin Ridley before they take Allen! It's just common sense. Some of you have to pay attention the way this front office works. If there is one person the Bills are not interested in... That's Josh Allen. & that's not opinion...its a fact! 03-26 John Murphy Show HR 2 - Chris Brown destroys Allen https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/wgr550.hosted.cx/hosting/media/wgr550/1642018/122301576.mp3 My God, thank you! Where have you been all my life? I've been looking for another person to tell me that his opinions are facts and dadgummit, you are that guy. Thank you!
Magox Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 I will tell you what is a fact, that Scorp83 doesn't know the difference between a fact and an opinion.
Chicken Boo Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 1:06 AM, LeGOATski said: Yeah. Hopefully, Baker is there at 12. Otherwise, get a stud at a different position. Hate to break it to you. The Bills aren't drafting Mayfield either. For different reasons than Allen.
thebandit27 Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 8 hours ago, Scorp83 said: ??? are there really 3? It definitely feels like it's more... we have posters suggesting we trade up for Allen. People need to stop listening to most of these experts & go watch his games....not his highlights on YouTube. Go watch his bad decision making, accuracy issues. I have some great scouting reports on Allen. I'm a post one. The people that need to watch him more are folks that claim "bad accuracy", which is de facto repetition of talking heads with zero research behind it. Whether someone agrees with me or not, I've done more than my fair share of homework on these guys, and I've put my game breakdowns on this forum to back it up. What would be really great is if someone that claims that Allen is dead money did their own breakdown instead of merely repeating what someone else says about the kid No offense here: It's ironic that someone would knock an Allen supporter for doing exactly what the Allen detractors do. As I continue to say: he's my QB4 behind Rosen/Mayfiled/Darnold, and I have no trouble with him being drafted in the top 5 as a potential franchise QB 2
JohnC Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 24 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: The people that need to watch him more are folks that claim "bad accuracy", which is de facto repetition of talking heads with zero research behind it. Whether someone agrees with me or not, I've done more than my fair share of homework on these guys, and I've put my game breakdowns on this forum to back it up. What would be really great is if someone that claims that Allen is dead money did their own breakdown instead of merely repeating what someone else says about the kid No offense here: It's ironic that someone would knock an Allen supporter for doing exactly what the Allen detractors do. As I continue to say: he's my QB4 behind Rosen/Mayfiled/Darnold, and I have no trouble with him being drafted in the top 5 as a potential franchise QB If there is a position that you are going to draft on potential it is the qb position. And if there is a position that will require development and investment in good coaching it is for the qb position. There are qbs in this draft such as Rosen and Mayfield who will see the field sooner rather than later. Allen is certainly not one of them. So what! The team that drafts him does so with the realization that he needs a year or more before he should be a full time starter. When you see a qb with abundant physical attributes the next obvious question is does he have the makeup to learn and the work ethic to fulfill his potential. Too many people take a snapshot approach to evaluating players. Their attitude is what you are is what you will be. That static view toward evaluating players is so outdated and limiting. There are no guarantees on almost all players. If you are afraid to fail you will never succeed. 1
Dr. Who Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 Just now, JohnC said: If there is a position that you are going to draft on potential it is the qb position. And if there is a position that will require development and investment in good coaching it is for the qb position. There are qbs in this draft such as Rosen and Mayfield who will see the field sooner rather than later. Allen is certainly not one of them. So what! The team that drafts him does so with the realization that he needs a year or more before he should be a full time starter. When you see a qb with abundant physical attributes the next obvious question is does he have the makeup to learn and the work ethic to fulfill his potential. Too many people take a snapshot approach to evaluating players. Their attitude is what you are is what you will be. That static view toward evaluating players is so outdated and limiting. There are no guarantees on almost all players. If you are afraid to fail you will never succeed. And too many people look at a fella like Allen and instead of making a discerning judgment on the unique person, simply give one a litany of past failures: Kyle Boller, Jake Locker, EJ, etc. as if identifying a broadly construed "type" is sufficient to determine a future destiny.
JohnC Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: And too many people look at a fella like Allen and instead of making a discerning judgment on the unique person, simply give one a litany of past failures: Kyle Boller, Jake Locker, EJ, etc. as if identifying a broadly construed "type" is sufficient to determine a future destiny. There are no guarantees with prospects. But typecasting players and comparing them to failed players is a lazy way of evaluating players. Sometimes players fail because they are simply not good enough. And sometimes players fail because they are not put in a position to succeed. If you draft a player like Allen you can't immediately throw him onto the field and expect him play well. RG III was a talented player who because of the way he was handled and with his lack of receptivity to coaching didn't fulfill his potential. Few evaluators will say that Allen is a finished product. That is understood. On the other hand most evaluators acknowledge that he has stunning physical talent that needs to be harnessed. This certainly is a player worth investing in. If you get too fixated on a weakness you miss out seeing the overall strength. 1
thebandit27 Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 The interesting thing for me is that there are definitely parts of Allen's game that deserve scrutiny; his accuracy, IMO, is down the list. I tend to think of it this way: when the time comes for Allen to make a critical throw, will the ball go where he wants it to and in sufficient time? You'll have a hard time finding someone that would answer "no". The biggest issue with him is the tendency to try to do waaaaay too much. He won't give up on a play, and he tries to make throws that no QB in history can make (that he occasions to do so successfully probably isn't helping). Is that something that can be remedied? I have no idea. I want to believe that when he's surrounded by NFL talent, he'll recognize that he simply needs to be a QB and not a cowboy, but that's part of the Allen gamble 2
Augie Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 On 3/30/2018 at 2:19 AM, Ol Dirty B said: Chris Brown is employed by the Bills..... Which makes this even scarier in my opinion, they'll probably try to draft him ......or, is it the exact opposite of this? Or is that what they think you will think, so that’s what they are really thinking? It’s best not to take anything you hear too seriously this time of year, I think.
N.Y. Orangeman Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 Chris Brown had the Bills taking OJ Howard, Jarran Reed, Donovan Smith (2nd Round) and Eric Ebron in the last 4 drafts. It is pretty clear they don't let him in the room prior to the actual draft (as would be expected).
thebandit27 Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 1 minute ago, N.Y. Orangeman said: Chris Brown had the Bills taking OJ Howard, Jarran Reed, Donovan Smith (2nd Round) and Eric Ebron in the last 4 drafts. It is pretty clear they don't let him in the room prior to the actual draft (as would be expected). FWIW, Whaley himself said that Ebron would've been the pick had they stayed at 9 in 2014, and Rex said that their board was Shaq-Ragland-Reed in 2016, so if Brown's mock had Shaq and Rags off the board by 19, then his pick would've been correct per Rex. That said, this regime does seem to be much more tight lipped
HappyDays Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 (edited) If you haven't seen the NDT Contextualized Quarterbacking, it has a lot of info on all the QBs in this draft including Allen: https://d3d2maoophos6y.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/25/2018/03/30195527/2018-Contextualized-Quarterbacking2.pdf It confirms for me that Allen is not a 1st round prospect. Quote Josh Allen’s sheet here only re-affirms what I already believed: you’re drafting a player solely on a potential, no matter where you take Allen. Allen makes some jaw-dropping throws, and certainly has some generational talent. But the risks he takes when asked to process/decide beyond his first read or under pressure are absurd, and he cannot be trusted on an NFL field with his sporadic ball placement. On top of his poor decisionmaking as a passer, Allen scrambled on nearly 1 out of every 10 dropbacks and took a sack on 1 out of every 13. He simply is not yet an NFL quarterback—just a dude with insane contact balance, nice speed, and a cannon attached to his right shoulder. Allen very well can become an NFL quarterback, but a team investing in Allen faces the two steepest challenges a young QB can face: improving decision-making (especially under pressure) and improving accuracy. The numbers for Allen are terrible. When he moved beyond his first read he threw an interceptable ball 20% of the time. When under pressure, 20.8%. In other words when he dealt with real NFL challenges he fell apart. The author charted 13 QBs in the draft. Josh Allen had the worst accuracy and ball placement on throws behind the line of scrimmage and on throws beyond the line of scrimmage. His placement on throws 20+ yards down the field was 2nd worst only to Mike White. Aren't those throws supposed to be his strength? His placement beyond his first read is worst in the class, so is his placement when under pressure. His placement on tight window throws is 2nd worst. His interceptable pass percentage is - surprise - the worst. QBs like Chase Litton from Marshall and Brandon Silvers from Troy charted better than on him on nearly every metric, just so we're clear on what he's being compared to. The excuse about Allen's receiving corps doesn't work either. He had the lowest drop rate out of all 13 QBs - 4.5%. Lamar Jackson more than doubled that drop rate at 10.8%. There's a good example of why I don't care about completion percentage. I'll be shocked if he can improve enough to be a starting level NFL QB. It could happen but the odds are very much against it. I'd easily take 6 other QBs in this draft before him. Edited March 31, 2018 by HappyDays 1
Augie Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 7 minutes ago, HappyDays said: If you haven't seen the NDT Contextualized Quarterbacking, it has a lot of info on all the QBs in this draft including Allen: https://d3d2maoophos6y.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/25/2018/03/30195527/2018-Contextualized-Quarterbacking2.pdf It confirms for me that Allen is not a 1st round prospect. The numbers for Allen are terrible. When he moved beyond his first read he threw an interceptable ball 20% of the time. When under pressure, 20.8%. In other words when he dealt with real NFL challenges he fell apart. The author charted 13 QBs in the draft. Josh Allen had the worst accuracy and ball placement on throws behind the line of scrimmage and on throws beyond the line of scrimmage. His placement on throws 20+ yards down the field was 2nd worst only to Mike White. Aren't those throws supposed to be his strength? His placement beyond his first read is worst in the class, so is his placement when under pressure. His placement on tight windows is 2nd worst. His interceptable pass percentage is - surprise - the worst. QBs like Chase Litton from Marshall and Brandon Silvers from Troy charted better than on him on nearly every metric, just so we're clear on what he's being compared to. The excuse about Allen's receiving corps doesn't work either. He had the lowest drop rate out of all 13 QBs - 4.5%. Lamar Jackson more than doubled that drop rate at 10.8%. There's a good example of why I don't care about completion percentage. I'll be shocked if he can improve enough to be a starting level NFL QB. It could happen but the odds are very much against it. I'd easily take 6 other QBs in this draft before him. But did you know he can throw the ball really far?
HappyDays Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Augie said: But did you know he can throw the ball really far? There's a football with Josh Allen's initials on it orbiting the sun. Unfortunately he was aiming for the moon. 1 1
BillsFanForever19 Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 (edited) I understand everyone has their favorites. And everyone has an opinion regarding Allen. He's not my #1 or #2 QB either. But you guys do know that posting a topic about it isn't going to change McBeane's opinion, right? If they want to Draft him, no amount of bitching about it is going to stop them. Look at the positives of his game. They're definitely there. I know of a lot of Eagles fans weren't thrilled with Carson Wentz at first either. Edited March 31, 2018 by BillsFanForever19
thebandit27 Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 45 minutes ago, HappyDays said: If you haven't seen the NDT Contextualized Quarterbacking, it has a lot of info on all the QBs in this draft including Allen: https://d3d2maoophos6y.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/25/2018/03/30195527/2018-Contextualized-Quarterbacking2.pdf It confirms for me that Allen is not a 1st round prospect. The numbers for Allen are terrible. When he moved beyond his first read he threw an interceptable ball 20% of the time. When under pressure, 20.8%. In other words when he dealt with real NFL challenges he fell apart. The author charted 13 QBs in the draft. Josh Allen had the worst accuracy and ball placement on throws behind the line of scrimmage and on throws beyond the line of scrimmage. His placement on throws 20+ yards down the field was 2nd worst only to Mike White. Aren't those throws supposed to be his strength? His placement beyond his first read is worst in the class, so is his placement when under pressure. His placement on tight window throws is 2nd worst. His interceptable pass percentage is - surprise - the worst. QBs like Chase Litton from Marshall and Brandon Silvers from Troy charted better than on him on nearly every metric, just so we're clear on what he's being compared to. The excuse about Allen's receiving corps doesn't work either. He had the lowest drop rate out of all 13 QBs - 4.5%. Lamar Jackson more than doubled that drop rate at 10.8%. There's a good example of why I don't care about completion percentage. I'll be shocked if he can improve enough to be a starting level NFL QB. It could happen but the odds are very much against it. I'd easily take 6 other QBs in this draft before him. It doesn't "confirm" anything except NDT's opinion In fact, where Allen is drafted in 4 weeks will confirm what level prospect he is. I like the way that the analysis curates data, but again I say: level of talent absolutely matters. Allen is QBing an offense with pro style route concepts. If he's doing it right, then he's making throws to spots and within windows that are there by design. Make no mistake: he's playing with a cast of characters that will not be drafted. So much of an NFL offense is timing, coordination; generally being on the same page. So again I challenge people to watch the games and make their own judgment; you might see a guy that can't hit the broad side of a barn, but in multiple viewings of every throw the kid has made as a college QB, I haven't seen that. Not even close 1
Dr. Who Posted March 31, 2018 Posted March 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: It doesn't "confirm" anything except NDT's opinion In fact, where Allen is drafted in 4 weeks will confirm what level prospect he is. I like the way that the analysis curates data, but again I say: level of talent absolutely matters. Allen is QBing an offense with pro style route concepts. If he's doing it right, then he's making throws to spots and within windows that are there by design. Make no mistake: he's playing with a cast of characters that will not be drafted. So much of an NFL offense is timing, coordination; generally being on the same page. So again I challenge people to watch the games and make their own judgment; you might see a guy that can't hit the broad side of a barn, but in multiple viewings of every throw the kid has made as a college QB, I haven't seen that. Not even close Some folks are under the impression you only looked at one game. I've yet to see a really compelling counter-argument to your points.
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