This is what I've been saying all along....

[Scorp83]

30 minutes ago, mead107 said:

I am glad you think.  Thanks for letting us know what you think.   It is so important to make your own thread to let us know what you are thinking.  

Mom thinking you could have put this in any one of the other threads about QBs

Why? I'm not going looking for old QB threads!

I appreciate the OP making another QB thread. Keep'em coming!

[formerlyofCtown]

50 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Good there IS a significant difference in play from the top 3 QBs. 

 

Get to Two get your QB 

I think they like one guy better than any of the others.  It's only one though and I think it is Darnold.  I believe that is why they didn't make the trade for 3.  Not saying the others arn't good.  But I think they only see one guy worth the trade up cost.

Edited March 29, 2018 by formerlyofCtown

[mead107]

Just now, Scorp83 said:

Why? I'm not going looking for old QB threads!

I appreciate the OP making another QB thread. Keep'em coming!

Tomorrow I am thinking that a thinking of thinking thread should be posted on every QB that the Bills might be thinking that they hope there thinking guys are thinking the trust is thinking clearly. 

[BillsFan17]

For starters, if we traded 12, 22, 53, 65 and a pick next year... WE WOULD STILL HAVE A NORMAL DRAFT. We would have whatever pick we traded for, hypothetically in this situation second overall, a pick in the second and a pick in the third still in the 2018 draft. We aren't mortgaging all that much in retrospect. Essentially we could go a route and trade all picks that weren't initially ours to begin with to facilitate the move up.

 

Moreover, the Bills' cap space next year is very healthy. They can afford to ride AJ and build this roster up via this draft, as well as FA next year.

 

It's not like Buffalo will be absolutely void if surrounding the new QB with talent. The opportunity will be there to do so, just a matter of being a well ran franchise.

[formerlyofCtown]

36 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Most rookies are trying to give ammo to mods to prevent practice squad members and UDFAs from starting new threads; the ammo is good but not being loaded.

Because the MODS are not Nazis

1 minute ago, BillsFan17 said:

For starters, if we traded 12, 22, 53, 65 and a pick next year... WE WOULD STILL HAVE A NORMAL DRAFT. We would have whatever pick we traded for, hypothetically in this situation second overall, a pick in the second and a pick in the third still in the 2018 draft. We aren't mortgaging all that much in retrospect. Essentially we could go a route and trade all picks that weren't initially ours to begin with to facilitate the move up.

 

Moreover, the Bills' cap space next year is very healthy. They can afford to ride AJ and build this roster up via this draft, as well as FA next year.

 

It's not like Buffalo will be absolutely void if surrounding the new QB with talent. The opportunity will be there to do so, just a matter of being a well ran franchise.

I really think scheme wise AJ is an upgrade to TT.  Hopefully the leadership skills are there.  I suspect with his pedigree they are.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Hebert19 said:

"I think they have to decide how much of a difference is there between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield or Josh Rosen," Kiper said. 

 

I just don't see that the difference is that significant between 1 and even 6.  Is it worth surrounding one if those guys with a sub par team to get one?  I don't think so. People thought Joey Harrington was a slam dunk too.  How did that turn out when he went out there a couple seasons with no talent around him?

 

If we trade up...great but I can't say I believe for one minute darnold will have a better career than Jackson...so as a result I couldn't justify it.  

 

We will see soon enough. 

 

 

"Is it worth surrounding one of those guys with a sub par team to get one?"

 

No.

 

But do we have to do that, even if we spend a lot of picks? No. Does the guy need to even see the field this year? No, not if they think it won't help him. There's free agency, there's trades. And we've finally attacked the horrible cap situation Whaley put this team in and have a ton of room for FAs next year.

 

But Kiper's words here ignore part of the issue, which is style of play. And yeah, that's part of the decision. Which QB would fit the system best? Which worst?  That is a huge factor in deciding which QB you want, ignored by Kiper as it should be because he doesn't have team constraints to worry about.

 

It ignores another factor as well which is that while you may have close ratings on the six, a GM doesn't keep his job by managing to get one of the six QBs who are generally rated the highest before the draft. He keeps his job by managing to get one of the QBs who becomes a franchise QB. That's how he will be judged. People don't say, "Well, he got Losman and Losman was seen as one of the top four in that draft." They don't say, "He managed to draft the second-highest-rated guy that year, Ryan Leaf." They don't say, "In a year when there were clearly two guys all alone in an echelon of their own, Washington's pick of RGIII was a really good strong move. Excellent judgment." 

 

Through today's lens, getting one of the top six without giving up a lot might seem a victory. Three to five years from now, only having gotten a franchise QB will be seen as an acceptable outcome. Their jobs depend on it. And those jobs will depend on picking the correct one of the six, the one who has the makeup to succeed and to do so within the system of the Buffalo Bills offense.

Edited March 29, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Kwai San]

41 minutes ago, mead107 said:

Could have gone in the Mel Kip’s thread.   Just saying 

myself moderation is best 

 @ 22+k posts I do not know if you even know the word moderation.......just saying.

[Jay_Fixit]

There’s just so much here to process.

[Kwai San]

36 minutes ago, Thurmanator 12074 said:

I Totally agree with this. Also you can ask 20 people to list the top 6 QB’s in this draft and you can get almost 20 different answers. Who’s to say Lamar Jackson might not end up as the top QB out of this draft class. Think about it,  he might go 6th out of these QB’s. For the record my preferred order of QB’s that I like are as follows. 

 

Josh Allen 

Baker Mayfield 

Lamar Jackson 

Mason Rudolph 

Sam Darnold 

Josh Rosen. 

 

I know many people will not agree with my order of ranking the QB’s and that’s ok. But it goes to show you that any of these 6 could be the top QB of this draft class when it’s all said and done. The only QB I would trade up to #2 for would be Josh Allen. 

 

FINALLY someone who agrees with me on Darnold......I just DO NOT see it in him.  I really really really detest the name Josh right now......just detest it.

[ricojes]

29 minutes ago, mead107 said:

Tomorrow I am thinking that a thinking of thinking thread should be posted on every QB that the Bills might be thinking that they hope there thinking guys are thinking the trust is thinking clearly. 

I think you're on to something....

[Kwai San]

29 minutes ago, mead107 said:

Tomorrow I am thinking that a thinking of thinking thread should be posted on every QB that the Bills might be thinking that they hope there thinking guys are thinking the trust is thinking clearly. 

 

Just "slightly" overthinking that - I think.....or I thought I thunk it......lmao Mead!

Edited March 29, 2018 by Kwai San

[mead107]

I love that a lot of the post in this thread has people using the word think.  I don’t think that enough people think enough for themselves. 

????????????????

Edited March 29, 2018 by mead107

[Mat68]

Is Rosen, Allen, Darnold, or Mayfield 2 1s a 2nd and a third better than Lamar Jackson? Maybe, maybe not.  Their #1 to me is Darnold.  I could see Buffalo going big for him at 2.   The others Im not sure they would be willing to pay thay steep price.  

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

Good there IS a significant difference in play from the top 3 QBs. 

 

Get to Two get your QB 

 

Well, I think you better prepare for the Bills to draft another first round QB bust even if they trade up into #2.  Only 3 of the 7 QBs taken between #2 and #5 since 2000 have been even modestly successful (Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, and Blake Bortles).  Most drafts don't produce more than 1 starting QB no matter how many first round QBs are taken, and some of those are at best, only decent starters (think Bortles or Tannehill) while others come out of rounds below the first.  Since 2000, only 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2014 have produced decent starting QBs.  The only drafts since 2000 that had 2 top QBs come out of the first round were 2004, 2005, 2008, 2012)

[oldmanfan]

Two hardest things for front offices to do:  pick the right QB and the right HC

[Formerly Allan in MD]

It's about time we had a quarterback thread.

[Thurman#1]

 

11 hours ago, H2o said:

We're not trading up to #2 because of the cost and I honestly don't believe we are trading up to #4 either. I don't think the Colts will swap with us unless we grossly overpay. So I think the 7 to 10 range is the most realistic. It will hinge on how the first 5 picks fall. If the Giants and Broncos pass on a QB that we want the move will be made. If the Giants and Broncos both take QB's then that means the top 4 guys are off of the board. Then we are likely stuck with a Jackson or a Rudolph ( @ that thought).

 

 

This isn't a fact, it's an opinion. A guess, really.

 

Nothing wrong with guessing, either, except when you start to write stuff like, "we're not trading up to #2," when actually you just don't know anymore than the rest of us do.

 

9 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Well, I think you better prepare for the Bills to draft another first round QB bust even if they trade up into #2.  Only 3 of the 7 QBs taken between #2 and #5 since 2000 have been even modestly successful (Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, and Blake Bortles).  Most drafts don't produce more than 1 starting QB no matter how many first round QBs are taken, and some of those are at best, only decent starters (think Bortles or Tannehill) while others come out of rounds below the first.  Since 2000, only 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2014 have produced decent starting QBs.  The only drafts since 2000 that had 2 top QBs come out of the first round were 2004, 2005, 2008, 2012)

 

 

Only 3 of 7? Rivers, Ryan and Bortles? Wow, and here I thought Wentz was kinda OK. And maybe Mariota and Trubisky as well.

 

10 hours ago, BillsFan17 said:

For starters, if we traded 12, 22, 53, 65 and a pick next year... WE WOULD STILL HAVE A NORMAL DRAFT. We would have whatever pick we traded for, hypothetically in this situation second overall, a pick in the second and a pick in the third still in the 2018 draft. We aren't mortgaging all that much in retrospect. Essentially we could go a route and trade all picks that weren't initially ours to begin with to facilitate the move up.

 

Moreover, the Bills' cap space next year is very healthy. They can afford to ride AJ and build this roster up via this draft, as well as FA next year.

 

It's not like Buffalo will be absolutely void if surrounding the new QB with talent. The opportunity will be there to do so, just a matter of being a well ran franchise.

 

 

Yeah, but that group of picks wouldn't get us the #2. Or rather, that would be a huge bargain in terms of tradeups into the top five, a huge bargain.

Edited March 29, 2018 by Thurman#1

[transplantbillsfan]

For me, there are 3 QBs I'm getting very excited about: Darnold, Mayfield and Jackson.

 

We should (theoretically) be able to stay put at 12 and land Jackson. We might get Mayfield there, but probably not. We definitely need to trade up to get Darnold.

 

Those 3 guys I think set this team up well at the QB position.

[Fadingpain]

9 hours ago, H2o said:

We're not trading up to #2 because of the cost and I honestly don't believe we are trading up to #4 either. I don't think the Colts will swap with us unless we grossly overpay. So I think the 7 to 10 range is the most realistic. It will hinge on how the first 5 picks fall. If the Giants and Broncos pass on a QB that we want the move will be made. If the Giants and Broncos both take QB's then that means the top 4 guys are off of the board. Then we are likely stuck with a Jackson or a Rudolph ( @ that thought).

Which is why you trade up to make sure you aren't in that situation.

 

 

[SoTier]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Only 3 of 7? Rivers, Ryan and Bortles? Wow, and here I thought Wentz was kinda OK.

 

I didn't include any QBs drafted after 2014 because I don't think they've had enough time to prove themselves one way or another. (FTR, I always want QBs to have at least 3 seasons of starting).  I also didn't include Mariota and Trubisky.  Yeah, Wentz looks good and makes Philly look great to trade up to get him, but he has to come back from his knee, and he also needs to continue to improve his game.   However, Mariota remains a modest success at best.  If a team had traded a fortune of picks to move up to draft him, would they think they got their money's worth?  

 

Even if you include both Mariota and Wentz, that's all of 5 successes, some only modest, out of 9 QBs or 56%.  That's only slightly better than the percentage for all first round QBs.  Of course, 10 of the 12 QBs taken #1 between 2000 and 2016 have had at least modest success, for 83%, so my premise remains correct:   it's only the statistical success of the #1 picks that makes the "top five" QBs look like such statistical good bets.   

 

As always, whether to take a QB or not, and especially whether to trade up or not, doesn't depend upon statistics but on individuals.  If the QB the Bills want is available and they trade up to get him on draft day, that's okay.  If they trade up to any position except #1 before the draft, that's stupid.

 

Edited March 29, 2018 by SoTier