You are McBeane, what would you do in the 2018 NFL Draft?

[BBillsWestCoast]

I was listening to WGR55 and Sal was talking about if we stay at 12 and 22. The cost implications for the 5th year option versus the top  of the draft are very significant. I am not saying that you don't move up and get your dude at 2, 4, 5 or 6, however if we can't the 5th year option is up to 8 Million different for example. Sammy was a $14 Million dollar option versus Tré White who may be half that or far less. Having the 5th year option to me is essential for flexibility in resigning or trading an asset. I wish we had another 1st rounder this year or next. 

 

This also makes me believe that trading for a guy on another team that is an 11-32 pick makes sense in the future. Many of these first round picks get moved for far less in year 4 (E.g. Sammy Watkins). The problem is signing them long term would be the goal. The Rams wasted a 2nd rounder for a rental player which they cold have used this year to trade for Odell Beckham instead. 

 

I know we need to draft an MLB (high priority) and a QB (must be a fit and cost must not be outrageous). If we do not move up I would inclined to trade a 2nd and 4th this year to any team willing to give us a 2019 1st round pick. Our seconds our middle-late, so it may cost a bit more. Draft capitol in the first round just seems to give a team much more flexibility. Plus ANY team can sh** the bed and a 1st rounder could be a 4th-14th (E.g Houston at 4, Denver at 5, Oakland 9 and Green Bay at 14). It is worth the gamble.

 

That puts me into this odd situation in my thought process... I believe that it will be Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson that will be available somewhere between picks 6-12 (pick 6 will cost $$$$). I think they are both a bit of a reach until pick 9 (sweet spot as we can swap a 3rd or 2nd with SF), but it is a QB and we need one. I do not care what analysts think. I care what our scouts/coaches believe and know about our system and the best fit. Neither will be available past pick 22. On potential alone they are both electrifying. Mayfield can dink, dunk and create. Lamar can add extra first downs with his legs. I now that many of you believe that Lamar is going to fall past pick 22, but I am not so sure. If this guy can sit for 2 years to learn a system and gain about 12 lbs he may be the guy. He ran our system in college. Mayfield is a proven winner, but I am not so sure he is a Buffalo guy and can he deliver when it is freezing, blowing and etc. Last item, if it is Josh Allen that falls and a HIGHLY doubt it, because of his size and the nature of the teams all being in nasty weather without domes, then Buffalo needs to grab him if he falls between 4-6 even if it costs both 1st round picks this year. YES, he could be a bust... But is he better than Bortles (pick #3)? Does he look as good as Big Ben (pick #11)? I would have to say he is. I think he can do quite well in the NFL. He actually to me seems like a guy that will work hard. Do I think he could kill us for 4 years and set us back. It is very possible, but not likely.

 

Do we forgo all crazy thoughts and sell out to go to pick 2 or 4, basically giving away 2 drafts for 1 guy?

 

Do we go to pick 6 if Mayfield or Allen fall to pick #6 past Denver?

 

Do we take Lamar at #12 because Daboll and the gang believe that he is our guy?

 

Do we stay and take best player available at #12 (MLB/Corner/WR) and #22 (C/Guard, LB, WR)? 

 

Do we use #12 to trade down to get another 1st rounder next year?

 

Do we consider trying to get another 1st rounder next year by giving up a 2nd rounder + change for example?

 

Anyways I created a Poll to see what you think! I left out other QBs as an option, because they are all below average to me.

Edited March 27, 2018 by BBillsWestCoast

[oldmanfan]

I would get all the data I can on guys, including personal interviews.  And because I'll never have access to that info, I can't answer your question as to what I'd do.

[BBillsWestCoast]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

I would get all the data I can on guys, including personal interviews.  And because I'll never have access to that info, I can't answer your question as to what I'd do.

 

Too funny! My dream job would to be a personnel guy for the Bills. After I apply I will leak information to you.

[GunnerBill]

I want to get to #2. Maybe the Giants love a Quarterback and are playing their hand well but I don't believe that to be the case. 

[Tatonka68]

Do we take Lamar at #12 because Daboll and the gang believe that he is our guy? (Electrifying and played in our system)

Ahh... No Lamar is Not a drop back quarterback, he is a one read and run QB, just one good hit from the IR, (RGIII or Tyrod)

 

Draft by talent not by need, Highest player on board and stay put.

 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2018 by Tatonka68

[dpberr]

I selected "Stay at 12" and build the team.  I think a high pick QB creates unnecessary QB controversy that'd be detrimental to both the pick and McCarron.  

 

Let's see what A.J. can do.  (Then...we'll panic if necessary.)

 

 

 

 

[BBillsWestCoast]

I should have added....

 

"How about we pull a Mike Ditka and trade all 2019 picks and #12 to Cleveland/Giants for the #1-2 overall pick. Next year we have $90-100 million to spend in free agency. I could live with that."

[Rockinon]

We still have to add a QB somewhere. I just don't know how high they value the top 5 in this draft.  If someone like Rosen is available at 6 they may bite.  I just don't see this FO giving up what it would take to get to the #2.  Remember they have done a lot of house cleaning(not to mention free agents leaving) and have left some gaping holes at other positions.  There is a lot of work to do to get the team built.  With so many roster spots to fill, I just can't see them giving away a bunch of draft picks, even for a QB. Especially when our cap limit is pretty close to maxed out.

 

 

Edited March 27, 2018 by Rockinon

[oldmanfan]

22 minutes ago, BBillsWestCoast said:

 

Too funny! My dream job would to be a personnel guy for the Bills. After I apply I will leak information to you.

I like your idea, but seriously that's the data Beane has that we don't have.  I would love to be a fly on the wall at OBD when they talk to these guys, put them in front of a white board, talk to their college coaches, etc.   I think that's where they really figure out who they want and who slides.

To answer your question I would probably stay at 12 and take my QB there, or take him at 22.  I just don't know that there's really that much difference between the top six guys coming out, and I can get one of them at 12 or 22.

[richNjoisy]

I continue to believe the key moment in the draft is pick 2 - will the Giants pick a QB? I believe the Browns will take Darnold at Pick 1 if Giants go QB, and we all know the Jets are going QB, that would mean three gone 1-2-3. Not only does that only leave one QB left of

the "Big 4" but means that there is a high chance whomever the Bills like best is gone. Should we trade away the farm for our 2nd, third or fourth

choice QB or sit tight and take the 5th rated QB?

 

But, if the Giants take Barkley or Chubb, then at least one QB starts to fall. It could mean two start to fall. So, as GM, I am going to make sure I have

the QB's ranked/valued/weighted for each pick number (starting with Pick 4:Browns) and be ready to speed dial my offer. There will be competition

out there doing the same thing so we need to be ready to negotiate.

 

Since I do not know whom the Bills love - and it what order - I can't be more specific. They need to be ready to hit the speed dial...period.

Edited March 27, 2018 by richNjoisy

[Tyrod's friend]

If the God's are with you and you have a great draft, you'll pick up 2 high quality, 5 year starters in a single draft. We've done that once, if we can do it again this year we'll have set the foundation for a great franchise. 

There's any iteration on how you do it. You could sign me up for Roquon Smith at 12, Isiah Wynn at 22 (and move Dawkins to his natural RT position), Price or Ragnow at 54 and whatever leftover QB is there at 56. I think you get your pick of players like Washington or Sutton at 65 - or just say screw the QB at 56, go WR/WR at 56/65. Many people feel Orlando Brown gets into the third or fourth round. Mike White/Kyle Lauletta is your second, third round pick.

Hoping  your offensive line problems are cured, two WR, a developmental QB in the mix and a QB for the defense. 

Done like Sunday dinner.

[Chuck Wagon]

Picking Josh Rosen after I traded up to #3 two weeks ago.

[Fadingpain]

If I was Beane, a lot of these options might not even exist, or if they did, they would be much simpler propositions, because I would know who I like, who I don't like, what trade partners might exist, which definitely don't, etc.

 

For example, your second option asks if we move to pick 6 if Mayfield or Allen drop to that position.

 

What if Beane thinks Allen is horrible (as I do) and has no interest in him at any position, and Mayfield goes in the first few picks?  This "option" no longer exists.

 

I.E., if I'm Beane, I know what I want to do and it's kind of straight forward.  I'm not Beane, so it all seems wide open. 

 

I don't think it is in reality though.

 

 

[Jay_Fixit]

I wouldn’t want the Bills to trade up to 1 or 2 for anyone but Darnold. 

 

I think someone like Mayfield will be there at 12. I think the NFL is typically afraid to draft QB’s like him early even though he checks all the NFL boxes for QB......except height.

 

And we all know height for QB’s doesn’t matter.

 

So, the Bills could stand pat at 12, and Mayfield will probably be there.

 

I also wouldn’t care if they moved up to say 7/8/9 if the guy they want is there. And hopefully it’s not Josh Allen.

 

 

[MJS]

Your poll answers are a little biased, but I can't expect you to be an expert survey writer, I suppose.

Edited March 27, 2018 by MJS

[BuffaloHokie13]

Your bias shows in how you worded option #1. It most certainly does not 'basically give away 2 drafts for 1 guy' to move up to 2.

[oldmanfan]

15 minutes ago, richNjoisy said:

I continue to believe the key moment in the draft is pick 2 - will the Giants pick a QB? I believe the Browns will take Darnold at Pick 1 if Giants go QB, and we all know the Jets are going QB, that would mean three gone 1-2-3. Not only does that only leave one QB left of

the "Big 4" but means that there is a high chance whomever the Bills like best is gone. Should we trade away the farm for our 2nd, third or fourth

choice QB or sit tight and take the 5th rated QB?

 

But, if the Giants take Barkley or Chubb, then at least one QB starts to fall. It could mean two start to fall. So, as GM, I am going to make sure I have

the QB's ranked/valued/weighted for each pick number (starting with Pick 4:Browns) and be ready to speed dial my offer. There will be competition

out there doing the same thing so we need to be ready to negotiate.

 

Since I do not know whom the Bills love - and it what order - I can't be more specific. They need to be ready to hit the speed dial...period.

Couldn't agree more

[ghostwriter]

Trade up to 6 for Allen or Mayfield.

[mjt328]

My guy is Sam Darnold.  I think he's going to be a star in this league.  And I'm doing whatever I can to move up and get him.

If the Browns aren't biting, my backup plan is Josh Rosen.  I also really like him, but have some concerns about injuries.

 

I'm not a huge fan of the other guys.  Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson.  I think all of them are ideally 2nd Round prospects.

However, if I've totally struck out with my Top 2 guys, then I'm crossing my fingers and hoping one of those guys drops to me at #12.

 

As an absolute last resort, I'm doing what I can to trade back down.  Pickup extra picks in future drafts, fill-in the roster elsewhere and instruct Sean McDermott to tank until we are in good draft position in a good QB draft.

 

 

[Augie]

42 minutes ago, BBillsWestCoast said:

 

Too funny! My dream job would to be a personnel guy for the Bills. After I apply I will leak information to you.

 

Wait, is Rex coming back? Don’t scare me like that! 

 

I’d love to get the QB, but without more info on who they love, how much they love him and what it would cost, it’s really hard to say. 

Just now, NewDayBills said:

Trade up to 6 for Allen or Mayfield.

 

I get Allen has huge upside, but he scares me even more than Mayfield.

 

I pray our scouts and FO are smarter than everyone else's. We can all have a bumper sticker: “My college scout is smarter than your college scout!”