DRAFTING TOP 5 QBs NOT REALLY A "CRAPSHOOT"

[theRalph]

The excitement of a possible trade into the top five has given way to the discussion of the dangers of trading up...only done by desperate teams. A certain WGR afternoon host is calling trading up just plain dumb. I beg to differ:

 

Since 1998 there have been 27 quarterbacks selected amongst the top five picks of each of the 20 drafts that have occured. At least 14 - 16 of these are what I would term "franchise quarterbacks". The names include Manning, Palmer, McNabb, Vick, Manning, Rivers, Smith, Ryan, Stafford, Bradford, Newton, Luck, Mariota, Goff Wentz, Trubisky. So "crap shoot" is a bit strong of a term to describe about a 50 - 60% hit rate on top five picks at QB.

Additionally, you must give consideration to the fact that top five QB picks have been made by teams that did poorly the previous season. Sending top picks to bad teams has resulted in making busts of many other QBs that may well have excelled in better systems.  Brady's success  - being selected in the 6th round - isn't so much about the marvel of a low pick being undiscovered as it is about him going to a franchise that wasn't broken in the first place.

The fact is only 8 times have 2 QBs been selected in the 1st round and just once have 3 of the first 5 picks been QBs (1999). So in a draft where perhaps an unprecedented 6 QBs may be taken in the first round, it would seem that taking one in the top five (if you can get there) is a pretty good bet. Not a crap shoot.

[jrober38]

Essentially half the guys are busts which is still pretty crazy considering it's a top 5 pick.

 

And if you look at the guys who go 2nd to 5th overall, the bust rate is a lot higher. 

 

 6 QBs aren't going in round 1. The NFL is a win now league and there aren't that many teams who desperately need a QB. 

Edited March 27, 2018 by jrober38

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Essentially half the guys are busts which is still pretty crazy considering it's a top 5 pick.

 

And if you look at the guys who go 2nd to 5th overall, the bust rate is a lot higher. 

 

 6 QBs aren't going in round 1. The NFL is a win now league and there aren't that many teams who desperately need a QB. 

If Bills stick at twelve, how many qbs go before them?  Two is minimum.  Some folks foresee a run on qb.  

[theRalph]

Not really crazy at all. Many highly selected QBs are ruined by the ****ty teams that draft them.

Four most likely will go, perhaps in the top 10 picks...and that's unprecedented.

[LeGOATski]

I don't care if they trade up or stay 12. However, if they trade up, it means they're getting their guy. A guy they know (as much as possible) is the perfect fit and a franchise QB.

 

It's pretty simple when you look at it that way. Not a crap shoot. It's target shooting.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

If Bills stick at twelve, how many qbs go before them?  Two is minimum.  Some folks foresee a run on qb.  

 

3 or 4 .

 

I'm not saying we shouldn't trade up, I just don't think Lamar Jackson and particularly Mason Rudolph are going to be the draft commodities some people think they are. 

 

The teams in the NFL who really need a QB are the Bills and the Jets. Cleveland is obviously going to draft one to sit behind Tyrod. 

 

Beyond them, the Giants could use one, but other moves they've made suggest they could go in another direction this year. The Broncos just gave Case Keenum (who is 30 years old) a two year deal with $26 million guaranteed and they have a veteran team that's ready to win now so they could easily go for the plug and play impact starter (Barkley, Nelson or Chubb). No one else in the top 10 needs one.

 

Once you get past the 10th pick, the Dolphins could use one, and the Cardinals could use one. Anyone else would be drafting a backup who will sit behind an incumbent starter which is rare. 

 

So that's 3 teams that will pick one, and another 4 that could. I don't think 6 of those 7 teams take QBs. I think a couple take the BPA on their board instead (Giants, Broncos). 

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

7 minutes ago, theRalph said:

Not really crazy at all. Many highly selected QBs are ruined by the ****ty teams that draft them.

Four most likely will go, perhaps in the top 10 picks...and that's unprecedented.

I know QB's can develop post college, but I don't really buy into ****ty teams ruining highly selected QB's.  I believe if a QB is good enough to be a star in the NFL, they will find a way on the field.  Of course there are guys like Jeff Fischer who likes to run an antiquated offensive system but for the most part I believe if you are good enough, it will be shown somewhere along the way.  

 

For example, I hear all the time that David Carr was ruined by being selected to the Texans and having to play behind their horrible offensive line.  Yes that was a bad situation for Carr, but I just kind of believe he sucked and the the best offensive line in the league wasn't going to make him good.  

[TPS]

Which QBs in 2018 should be drafted in the top 5 then? That's the important question, and I believe only 2 of them should: Darnold at #1 and Mayfield at 3. 

Rosen makes me think of Bradford, very good when healthy, but never makes it through a season. Allen reminds me of Cutler, not on your list. No one else is in the top 5 discussion.

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

3 or 4 .

 

I'm not saying we shouldn't trade up, I just don't think Lamar Jackson and particularly Mason Rudolph are going to be the draft commodities some people think they are. 

 

The teams in the NFL who really need a QB are the Bills and the Jets. Cleveland is obviously going to draft one to sit behind Tyrod. 

 

Beyond them, the Giants could use one, but other moves they've made suggest they could go in another direction this year. The Broncos just gave Case Keenum (who is 30 years old) a two year deal with $26 million guaranteed and they have a veteran team that's ready to win now so they could easily go for the plug and play impact starter (Barkley, Nelson or Chubb). No one else in the top 10 needs one.

 

Once you get past the 10th pick, the Dolphins could use one, and the Cardinals could use one. Anyone else would be drafting a backup who will sit behind an incumbent starter which is rare. 

 

So that's 3 teams that will pick one, and another 4 that could. I don't think 6 of those 7 teams take QBs. I think a couple take the BPA on their board instead (Giants, Broncos). 

This seems quite plausible to me, though I have heard some suggestions the Chargers might be a surprise team looking for qb.  I think that's somewhat unlikely, but I don't really know.  You have a stricter criteria than I do.  I'm not knocking it, I just hope a little more.  I don't think it's impossible that Allen might turn out well, for instance.  That said, I would prefer Mayfield, Darnold, or Rosen.  Unless someone goes for Allen, you probably have to jump to 4 - 6 to grab the remaining one of the big three . . . or maybe that fella falls a bit.  I'd be nervous risking that.

Edited March 27, 2018 by Dr. Who

[John from Riverside]

I feel like this is a good year to take a QB.....I know a lot of analysists are downplaying it but I dont think so.......

 

I dont care if its trade up to get him......or sit at 12 and take one if you have done your due diligence.....but get a QB out of this draft.

[Tyrod's friend]

20 minutes ago, theRalph said:

The excitement of a possible trade into the top five has given way to the discussion of the dangers of trading up...only done by desperate teams. A certain WGR afternoon host is calling trading up just plain dumb. I beg to differ:

 

Since 1998 there have been 27 quarterbacks selected amongst the top five picks of each of the 20 drafts that have occured. At least 14 - 16 of these are what I would term "franchise quarterbacks". The names include Manning, Palmer, McNabb, Vick, Manning, Rivers, Smith, Ryan, Stafford, Bradford, Newton, Luck, Mariota, Goff Wentz, Trubisky. So "crap shoot" is a bit strong of a term to describe about a 50 - 60% hit rate on top five picks at QB.

Additionally, you must give consideration to the fact that top five QB picks have been made by teams that did poorly the previous season. Sending top picks to bad teams has resulted in making busts of many other QBs that may well have excelled in better systems.  Brady's success  - being selected in the 6th round - isn't so much about the marvel of a low pick being undiscovered as it is about him going to a franchise that wasn't broken in the first place.

The fact is only 8 times have 2 QBs been selected in the 1st round and just once have 3 of the first 5 picks been QBs (1999). So in a draft where perhaps an unprecedented 6 QBs may be taken in the first round, it would seem that taking one in the top five (if you can get there) is a pretty good bet. Not a crap shoot.

wow. Trubisky? LMAO.

In a couple years you are going to regret writing that.

[N.Y. Orangeman]

[Seanbillsfan2206]

It’s not just QBs though...

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

 

It's really hard to find a QB.

 

This is why I never understand why people talk themselves into flawed prospect like they're doing with Josh Allen. 

[Tyrod's friend]

Franchise only exists if the proper support exists around the guy drafted in the top 5 - especially for those teams trading up to get the player. 

You can't empty the cupboard of future talent, while your current talent is barren, and expect VOILA! HALLE_FK_YOOYAH some savior to come in and save the day. 

THAT'S what makes it a crap shoot. Fans want to go deep into the playoffs, they want to do it over and over again. They don't want Stafford, throwing for 4500 yards continually on a 4-12 team. 

Cheers.

[BillsInWilmingtonNC]

22 minutes ago, theRalph said:

The excitement of a possible trade into the top five has given way to the discussion of the dangers of trading up...only done by desperate teams. A certain WGR afternoon host is calling trading up just plain dumb. I beg to differ:

 

Since 1998 there have been 27 quarterbacks selected amongst the top five picks of each of the 20 drafts that have occured. At least 14 - 16 of these are what I would term "franchise quarterbacks". The names include Manning, Palmer, McNabb, Vick, Manning, Rivers, Smith, Ryan, Stafford, Bradford, Newton, Luck, Mariota, Goff Wentz, Trubisky. So "crap shoot" is a bit strong of a term to describe about a 50 - 60% hit rate on top five picks at QB.

Additionally, you must give consideration to the fact that top five QB picks have been made by teams that did poorly the previous season. Sending top picks to bad teams has resulted in making busts of many other QBs that may well have excelled in better systems.  Brady's success  - being selected in the 6th round - isn't so much about the marvel of a low pick being undiscovered as it is about him going to a franchise that wasn't broken in the first place.

The fact is only 8 times have 2 QBs been selected in the 1st round and just once have 3 of the first 5 picks been QBs (1999). So in a draft where perhaps an unprecedented 6 QBs may be taken in the first round, it would seem that taking one in the top five (if you can get there) is a pretty good bet. Not a crap shoot.

I totally agree and believe that the support provided to a prospect has a larger impact on the prospect than many may think.  Some prospects are just that good that they can overcome whatever the circumstances are, but most need the right situation and support (teammates, HC, OC).  I believe that we have the right culture now, and a great HC/GM combo that we are ready to bring in a top prospect to develop the correct way.

[apuszczalowski]

11 minutes ago, TPS said:

Which QBs in 2018 should be drafted in the top 5 then? That's the important question, and I believe only 2 of them should: Darnold at #1 and Mayfield at 3. 

Rosen makes me think of Bradford, very good when healthy, but never makes it through a season. Allen reminds me of Cutler, not on your list. No one else is in the top 5 discussion.

That's the key, it still depends on the quality of the player themselves. Just because many teams are desperate and draft the QB early it doesn't mean they will be a true franchise QB. This draft has anywhere from 4-6 guys who are viewed by some to be picked within the top 5-10 spots, but no one knows who should go where cause they all have serious question marks and non are sure fire can't miss guys. 

 

You can call guys like Marriotta, Smith, Trubisky and Bradford franchise guys, but would you give up over 5 picks in the first 3 rounds of a draft for one of those guys? Vince Young and Winston were top picks who like the guys in this years draft, thought of as franchise QBs, would you trade up a bunch of early picks for them too?

[The Jokeman]

25 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

If Bills stick at twelve, how many qbs go before them?  Two is minimum.  Some folks foresee a run on qb.  

I suspect 2 (Darnold and Rosen) maybe 3 (Allen) go before the Bills pick at 12. Maysfield has a chance but think his short stature will scare teams off, I'd pass on him to and hopefully land a LB like Roquan Smith and get Mason Rudolph at 22. 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, The Jokeman said:

I suspect 2 (Darnold and Rosen) maybe 3 (Allen) go before the Bills pick at 12. Maysfield has a chance but think his short stature will scare teams off, I'd pass on him to and hopefully land a LB like Roquan Smith and get Mason Rudolph at 22. 

I'm not a Rudolph fan and I like Mayfield, so we are at odds there.  I watch UGA a lot; really like Roquan.  I'd rather take a chance on Jackson at 22.

[theRalph]

11 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

wow. Trubisky? LMAO.

In a couple years you are going to regret writing that.

I think not. But he's not even among the 14 in my mind.