Bucky Brooks Scout's Notebook: Stop Overdrafting Quarterbacks!

[dave mcbride]

3 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Badol, honestly solid points.

 

however, please forgive my knit picky comments:

 

Marshawn is great but unless he busts it out in the next to years at Oakland I don't think he is a HoF.  There are 11-12 retired guys in front of him with more rushing, some with less seasons that aren't in the hall.  Yes he had a great impact, but I believe the new standard is at least 12,000 yards rushing and at little more than 10, 000 now I don't think he gets it.  Also, not a real good receiver, averaging a little more than 20 or so grabs a season.

 

Also, williamisnt a 10,000 yard back.  He comes close when you add in receiving yards, but still not there.

 

was honestly surprised though...the guy had 4,537 yards rushing in his first 4 years with Buffalo and Baltimore and he only needed 10 more yards in his 3rd full season with the bills to have made it 4 straight 1,000 yard seasons.

Willis Mcgahee had 9813 yds from scrimmage. Close enough!

[Reed83HOF]

31 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

 All of McBeanes moves point to this. 

 

Tre White over Gilmore

Dawkins over Cordy

zae/ rookie this year over Sammy

rookie QB( fingers crossed) / cheap bridge guy in McCarron

 

When you spell it out like this, it really doesn't feel much different than any other FO we have had, let the expensive guys go and draft rookies to take their place...

[Tyrod's friend]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The Vikings are indeed a good example but they're an example of why you need a QB.

 

How many Super Bowl titles there? They overdrafted Bridgewater, and it might've worked if not for the injury, so now in their desperations they're wildly overpaying Cousins. And it's a good move. You've got to have a QB.

 

How many SBs have the Bengals won?

 

There are a lot of paths to very good. Very few to Super Bowl championships. Generally speaking you need a QB in the top ten or so.

In the AFC, maybe. 14 of the last 16 Super Bowls have been started by either Ben, Peyton or Tom. One is retired and the other two are fading.

Since the 2000 matchup, you are as likely to see a starting Super Bowl QB that was drafted after the 2nd round as you are a 1st rounder. Other than the Mannings, it's almost never a guy that was drafted 1st or 2nd in his year. 

At the end of the day, if McBeane likes a guy and they make the move who am I to say jackshit? I've proven that I'll watch these jokers no matter who they put on the field. I still have a Fitzgerald/Johnson t-shirt.

Cheers and thank god the sun is finally shining in WNY.
 

[CuddyDark]

14 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

SCOUT'S NOTEBOOK
Top-five QBs? Not So Fast
The draft stock of 2018's top passers -- Josh Allen, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen -- has seemingly never been higher. Bucky Brooks explains why we may be overvaluing QBs and gives his latest top-10 ranking.

 

Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. The topics of this edition include:

 

-- How the Jason Pierre-Paul trade impacts the Bucs' and Giants' draft plans.

 

-- Bill Belichick's magic hand in the offseason.

 

-- Has time run out for Dez Bryant?

 

But first, a warning about passing on future stars to draft a quarterback ...

* * * * *

Reviewing my notes from the fall, I believe there are only two quarterbacks worthy of top-10 grades, and they don't rank within my top five overall prospects. Here's my top 10 right now:

1) Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
2) Bradley Chubb, DE, N.C. State
3) Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
4) Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
5) Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
6) Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama
7) Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
8) Sam Darnold, QB, USC
9) Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
10) Derwin James, S, Florida State

This is what I been saying in almost every thread on QBs. I believe there are 7 player better than every QB in this draft. There are no Luck's or Wentz in this draft. No one ranks the QBs as the top players in the draft.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, CuddyDark said:

This is what I been saying in almost every thread on QBs. I believe there are 7 player better than every QB in this draft. There are no Luck's or Wentz in this draft. No one ranks the QBs as the top players in the draft.

 

QBs are rightfully in a different category from other position players given how important they are to long term success at the NFL level.  Your view is too simplistic in this regard. 

[CuddyDark]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

QBs are rightfully in a different category from other position players given how important they are to long term success at the NFL level.  Your view is too simplistic in this regard. 

And this is the mistake teams make. When you look at the high draft QBs who become great they do so because they are both the best QB in their draft class but also in most cases the best player in the draft overall. It the same question I've said before. If you could have Ray Lewis or Joe Flacco who would you choose? I'd go for Ray Lewis.

[26CornerBlitz]

4 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

And this is the mistake teams make. When you look at the high draft QBs who become great they do so because they are both the best QB in their draft class but also in most cases the best player in the draft overall. It the same question I've said before. If you could have Ray Lewis or Joe Flacco who would you choose? I'd go for Ray Lewis.

 

Goff and Wentz for example were not the highest rated players in the 2016 draft yet they were selected at the #1 and # 2 slots.  I guarantee you that both the Rams and Eagles would pick them all over again.  QB trumps the other positions. 

Edited March 24, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[Saxum]

13 hours ago, pimp on da' net said:

FYI- TT was a pro-bowler 2 yrs ago, just saying.

He was talking about drafted players and alternates to alternates really should not be factored other wise you over value QBs because Br*dy needs to get his pedicure done every year.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Shouldn’t a draft board rank players based on some type of formula that accounts for talent, position importance, and replacement “cost”? 

 

Otherwise, you can put a kicker or guard on your top 10... Or even a RB, like Brooks has, even though you can get a good RB just about anywhere and any year. 

[Saxum]

3 hours ago, Boyst62 said:

When you have one of the Cheapest quarterbacks it's not very difficult to succeed when you're only hitting on 1/4th of your draft picks. 

 

No way would P*ts have success if Br*dy was not getting money under the table.

[Mat68]

6 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Goff and Wentz for example were not the highest rated players in the 2016 draft yet they were selected at the #1 and # 2 slots.  I guarantee you that both the Rams and Eagles would pick them all over again.  QB trumps the other positions. 

The Cowboys also draft Preskott at 4 over Elliot.

[Saxum]

11 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

And this is the mistake teams make. When you look at the high draft QBs who become great they do so because they are both the best QB in their draft class but also in most cases the best player in the draft overall. It the same question I've said before. If you could have Ray Lewis or Joe Flacco who would you choose? I'd go for Ray Lewis.

I'd pick Ray Lewis if we are talking about correctional league team where he belongs.

[CuddyDark]

2 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

I'd pick Ray Lewis if we are talking about correctional league team where he belongs.

So you'd take Flacco? Well that's the Bills problem they like the Flacco's. Losman and Manuel over better position player.

[Tyrod's friend]

14 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

And this is the mistake teams make. When you look at the high draft QBs who become great they do so because they are both the best QB in their draft class but also in most cases the best player in the draft overall. It the same question I've said before. If you could have Ray Lewis or Joe Flacco who would you choose? I'd go for Ray Lewis.

Stop overdrafting? Maybe there's something to that idea. 

Since 2012 rookie cap there have been two solid drafts for QBs with plenty of depth. In both cases, I think it will prove out over the long term that the best QB was picked later. 

 No matter how much value you attach to the position, you can find quality all over the board. It's about evaluation process and available inventory. 
 

PLAYER	POS	HT	WT	COLLEGE	PICK	TEAM	GRADE	WATCH
	Luck, Andrew	QB	6'4"	234	Stanford	Pick 1, Round 1 (1)	Colts	97.0
	Griffin III, Robert	QB	6'2"	223	Baylor	Pick 2, Round 1 (2)	Redskins	95.0
	Tannehill, Ryan	QB	6'4"	221	Texas A&M	Pick 8, Round 1 (8)	Dolphins	87.0
	Weeden, Brandon	QB	6'4"	221	Oklahoma St.	Pick 22, Round 1 (22)	Browns	83.7
	Osweiler, Brock	QB	6'7"	242	Arizona State	Pick 25, Round 2 (57)	Broncos	83.5
	Cousins, Kirk	QB	6'3"	214	Michigan St.	Pick 7, Round 4 (102)	Redskins	73.0
	Foles, Nick	QB	6'5"	243	Arizona	Pick 25, Round 3 (88)	Eagles	71.0
	Wilson, Russell	QB	5'11"	204	Wisconsin	Pick 12, Round 3 (75)	Seahawks	68.5

 

PLAYER	POS	HT	WT	COLLEGE	PICK	TEAM	GRADE	WATCH
	Bortles, Blake	QB	6'5"	232	Central Florida	Pick 3, Round 1 (3)	Jaguars	6.2
	Bridgewater, Teddy	QB	6'2"	214	Louisville	Pick 32, Round 1 (32)	Vikings	6.1
	Carr, Derek	QB	6'2"	214	Fresno St.	Pick 4, Round 2 (36)	Raiders	6.1
	Manziel, Johnny	QB	6'0"	207	Texas A&M	Pick 22, Round 1 (22)	Browns	6.1
	Garoppolo, Jimmy	QB	6'2"	226	Eastern Illinois	Pick 30, Round 2 (62)	Patriots	5.8
	McCarron, AJ	QB	6'3"	220	Alabama	Pick 24, Round 5 (164)	Bengals	5.7

And of course, if you want to go with 2016 the most productive QB to this point has actually been Dak Prescott from the 4th round. And I'll tell you what - there's no WAY I'd give up a king's ransom just to get Jared Goff instead of Prescott. And nobody in the NFL would either.
 

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

Agree it is not essential, but it it tilts the playing field in your favor. 

 

Brady is an exception , as his $15m per season puts him behind every single stinking staring QB on their 2nd contract( I think, but maybe wrong). So New England gets value way above replacement, and gets value way above cap number.  Which you just cannot expect a team friendly deal from every other QB. 

 

Eli was certainly first year under new rules, and I think as the rules come into affect, the thought process on how to build a team has as well. All of McBeanes moves point to this. 

 

Tre White over Gilmore

Dawkins over Cordy

zae/ rookie this year over Sammy

rookie QB( fingers crossed) / cheap bridge guy in McCarron

 

$46 million dead cap this year,  all things point to him building the team this way. 

 

 

 

 

Brady isn't $15 mill per year. Check Spotrac. It's $20.5 mill per year. His signing bonus was $28 mill. And yeah, $20.5 mill is still a major break off what he could get if he wanted, but it's not some miniscule amount.

 

And those moves are mostly not so much how he wanted to build the team (though it may fit perfectly with the fiscally conservative model he has talked about from day one), it was a guy being dropped onto a team that was in terrible cap shape, particularly for a team that simply wasn't very good. Whaley trashed the cap. For a team that wasn't very good and a seriously middling roster. And we now know that Beane promised the Pegulas he would get rid of all the cap problems within two years. Which he appears to have done. That's the $46 mill in dead cap.

 

I love it.

 

What they're doing simply fits in with the traditional way of building a good team, the way the smart teams have used, the way the worse teams have never had the patience to stick with. You get in good cap shape. You build mostly through the draft, supplementing and filling holes with low- to mid-priced FAs. You maximize the number of picks by using arbitrage opportunities, by trading back, by focusing on the rules for comp picks and maximizing the number of those you get.

 

And still that's not enough, because you've got to get a good coach, get the GM and coach on the same page, do a good job with your scouting, get football people on the player personnel side, and nobody else. Then once you've got a good group you have to take advantage of the many benefits of keeping one system in place for a long time, the benefits of stability of system and scheme. And then you hang in there for what might be a while. You don't let short term thinking derail your long-term movement towards your long-term goals. You don't overreact to the inevitable bumps along the way. You trust the process.

 

Do all that and if you have the right guys in charge (and you get a quarterback somehow) you might start to be consistently in the mix for a championship.

 

That's not some new game plan based on the rookie salaries. It's how to run a great team, has been for decades.

 

Not that you're wrong about rookie salaries, you're right. It has it's effect, it is something good teams keep in mind. But it doesn't change the way the good teams work very much.

Edited March 24, 2018 by Thurman#1

[jrober38]

14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Wrong.

 

It's really true. 

 

Marshawn Lynch was an All Pro.........and 5X pro bowler not 1x.........and he's a likely HOF'er.

 

And Donte Whitner.......yes Lil' Donte.......was also a 2x time Pro Bowler.

 

Same for Willis McGahee........2x pro bowler.......10K yard RB.

 

All three were Bills first rounders.

 

Then there is Lee Evans who was basically good for around 900 yards receiving at 15 ypc clip in his first 6 seasons.

 

Sammy Watkins was also extraordinary in his first two seasons in Buffalo.

 

Lee Evans is the only one of those guys who saw a second contract in Buffalo...........some didn't even make it thru the first one.

 

NOT "abysmal" first round selections..........just the WRONG selections because the team did not have a franchise QB to put them around.

 

 

None of this happened while they were wearing a Bills uniform. 

[Mat68]

If drafts could be redrafted the best QBs would go before any position.  Its too important.  Yes every year or two a player is picked in the middle rounds that turns out to be very good maybe great. 

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

If drafts could be redrafted the best QBs would go before any position.  Its too important.  Yes every year or two a player is picked in the middle rounds that turns out to be very good maybe great. 

 

Of course they would be.

 

The issue is that most QBs, in every round, bust, and given that it's the most important position in football, if you're a GM, and you whiff on a QB in round 1, you're probably not going to get a second kick at the can. 

If you take away the guys who go #1 overall, 70% of first round QBs bust, about 75% of 2nd and 3rd rounders bust, about 90% of 4th rounders bust, and good QBs flat out don't come from the 5th to 7th rounds over the past decade. 

 

It's really hard to find a QB, and consequences of choosing one and them not being good usually result in early termination at the GM and HC positions. 

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, CuddyDark said:

This is what I been saying in almost every thread on QBs. I believe there are 7 player better than every QB in this draft. There are no Luck's or Wentz in this draft. No one ranks the QBs as the top players in the draft.

 

 

Yeah, you're right. But Wentz and Goff also weren't the best players in the draft their year. Laremy Tunsil was on most boards as the best player that year. Bosa too.

 

Here's Gil Brandt's top 100 that year.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000652753/article/hot-100-40-laremy-tunsil-is-top-prospect-in-2016-nfl-draft

 

Wentz is #7 and Goff #8. PFF had Bosa #1, Goff #4 and Wentz #14. Think the Eagles and Rams are just full of remorse that they didn't pick the higher rated Tunsil, Jalen Ramsey, Zeke Elliott, Bosa, Myles Jack before his injury and DeForest Buckner. I bet they don't wake up at night regretting they traded up for the #7 and #8 players.

Edited March 24, 2018 by Thurman#1

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

I'm starting to see why brooks is on NFL Network now and not part of a team anymore, without QB's, unless you have a dominant defense it's been shown time and again that you can't win without one.