26CornerBlitz Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 SCOUT'S NOTEBOOKTop-five QBs? Not So Fast The draft stock of 2018's top passers -- Josh Allen, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen -- has seemingly never been higher. Bucky Brooks explains why we may be overvaluing QBs and gives his latest top-10 ranking. Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. The topics of this edition include: -- How the Jason Pierre-Paul trade impacts the Bucs' and Giants' draft plans. -- Bill Belichick's magic hand in the offseason. -- Has time run out for Dez Bryant? But first, a warning about passing on future stars to draft a quarterback ... * * * * * Reviewing my notes from the fall, I believe there are only two quarterbacks worthy of top-10 grades, and they don't rank within my top five overall prospects. Here's my top 10 right now: 1) Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State 2) Bradley Chubb, DE, N.C. State 3) Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State 4) Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech 5) Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame 6) Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama 7) Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA 8) Sam Darnold, QB, USC 9) Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia 10) Derwin James, S, Florida State 3
DJB Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 (edited) Problem is you dont win without them. Its a QB driven league and always will be. If you need a QB you have to do whatever I to get one. Teams that already have franchise QB have a much easier time sticking to their draft board and not reaching. Edited March 24, 2018 by DJB 5 1
Lfod Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 (edited) That's like telling people to not speed when running late to work. Quarter Backs are in demand right now. The fish probably shouldn't bring in Brock. It's happening for a reason. Edited March 24, 2018 by Lfod 1 1
White Linen Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 (edited) Make sure you don't reach for the most important position in all of sports. Especially when every player Bucky has above a QB is a guaranteed top NFL player. Edited March 24, 2018 by White Linen 2 1
26CornerBlitz Posted March 24, 2018 Author Posted March 24, 2018 1 minute ago, White Linen said: Make sure you don't reach for the most important position in all of sports. Not loving the word reach.
Batman1876 Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 Perhaps at the owners meeting they’ll all make a handshake agreement to not overdraft a QB. 1
pimp on da' net Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 25 minutes ago, DJB said: Problem is you dont win without them. Its a QB driven league and always will be. If you need a QB you have to do whatever I to get one. Teams that already have franchise QB have a much easier time sticking to their draft board and not reaching. The point I take from this is don't sell the farm for a position of need if said position may not be NFL starter quality. I think we all agree about the importance of the QB position and finding the "franchise QB"...all things being equal, if these top tier 4 or 5 (whatever your value) are indeed can't miss. You spend the capital needed to get one. The problem is, one maybe two fit the profile. History tell us that the majority of them in this years draft will flame out... 3
26CornerBlitz Posted March 24, 2018 Author Posted March 24, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, pimp on da' net said: The point I take from this is don't sell the farm for a position of need if said position may not be NFL starter quality. I think we all agree about the importance of the QB position and finding the "franchise QB"...all things being equal, if these top tier 4 or 5 (whatever your value) are indeed can't miss. You spend the capital needed to get one. The problem is, one maybe two fit the profile. History tell us that the majority of them in this years draft will flame out... Interesting examples in the 2011 draft that Brooks referenced in the article. Edited March 24, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz 1
jrober38 Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 I agree with this premise. I'm higher on Mayfield than he is, but you can tell by watching him on the NFL Network today he doesn't think Allen has any chance of being a good pro. It's really hard to find a QB, and the vast majority of first rounders who don't go #1 overall bust. Teams need to be very careful with who they risk blowing picks on. Drafting guys just for the sake of it rarely works out. 2
NewEraBills Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 As far as overall players, I'd put Smith ahead of both QBs. But in any case, we need a QB. It's not like having the worse QB situation doesn't cement the fact that we need to be looking at QB before anything else.
BADOLBILZ Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 Get your QB..........then you can stick to your draft board for the next 15-20 years. Like it or not all other positions are basically disposable. During the drought the Bills drafted plenty of All Pro and Pro Bowl non-QB's in round one and yet they usually had only 4-5 of their first rounders on their roster each year...........which was the average length of time of a first round contract during the drought. When they finally made the playoffs they only had one first rounder on the active roster. Less of those did not matter. People who think the Bills should horde draft picks and use them on non-QB's just don't understand the math...........and clearly neither does Bucky Brooks. 5 1
SouthNYfan Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Get your QB..........then you can stick to your draft board for the next 15-20 years. Like it or not all other positions are basically disposable. During the drought the Bills drafted plenty of All Pro and Pro Bowl non-QB's in round one and yet they usually had only 4-5 of their first rounders on their roster each year...........which was the average length of time of a first round contract during the drought. When they finally made the playoffs they only had one first rounder on the active roster. Less of those did not matter. People who think the Bills should horde draft picks and use them on non-QB's just don't understand the math...........and clearly neither does Bucky Brooks. Agreed.
jrober38 Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Get your QB..........then you can stick to your draft board for the next 15-20 years. Like it or not all other positions are basically disposable. During the drought the Bills drafted plenty of All Pro and Pro Bowl non-QB's in round one and yet they usually had only 4-5 of their first rounders on their roster each year...........which was the average length of time of a first round contract during the drought. When they finally made the playoffs they only had one first rounder on the active roster. Less of those did not matter. People who think the Bills should horde draft picks and use them on non-QB's just don't understand the math...........and clearly neither does Bucky Brooks. This isn't really true. Over the 17 year drought, we drafted one All Pro (Marcell Dareus, 2014). Over the 17 year drought, we drafted 10 Pro Bowlers out of 139 total draft picks (Kyle Williams 5x, Marcel Dareus 2x, Jairus Byrd 3x, Aaron Schobel 2x, Terrance McGee 1x, Nate Clements 1x, Stephon GIlmore 1x, Marshawn Lynch 1x, Eric Wood 1x, Travis Henry 1x). That's an abysmal draft record. Of the 18 first round picks we had, only five of them ever made at least one Pro Bowl, and only one ever became an All Pro. Just terrible. Edited March 24, 2018 by jrober38 1
pimp on da' net Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, NewEraBills said: As far as overall players, I'd put Smith ahead of both QBs. But in any case, we need a QB. It's not like having the worse QB situation doesn't cement the fact that we need to be looking at QB before anything else. This is the whole gamesmanship with the draft and the valuations each team puts on a prospect. The top half teams in the draft play poker by milking those desperate for a QB. If the prospect is overvalued (due to need) and flames out, that sets an organization back in a sense. Case in point, Miami at 11 all of a sudden positions itself to look as tho they want one of the QB prospects. Now causing a team like BUF or ARI to overpay to get ahead of them... MIA laughs as we weaken are ability to fill other positional needs reaching for a risky propspect...BUF did this in the Tebow draft, Ralph Wilson spoke about how DEN winked & drafted Tebow in the 1st rd when he wasn't slotted that high on BUF board. Interestingly, Bills at 12 (if they stay put) looks to be in a good position for a Mayfield for those that value his skill set. Trust the process, Beane. 17 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Get your QB..........then you can stick to your draft board for the next 15-20 years. Like it or not all other positions are basically disposable. During the drought the Bills drafted plenty of All Pro and Pro Bowl non-QB's in round one and yet they usually had only 4-5 of their first rounders on their roster each year...........which was the average length of time of a first round contract during the drought. When they finally made the playoffs they only had one first rounder on the active roster. Less of those did not matter. People who think the Bills should horde draft picks and use them on non-QB's just don't understand the math...........and clearly neither does Bucky Brooks. FYI- TT was a pro-bowler 2 yrs ago, just saying.
SectionC3 Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 24 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I agree with this premise. I'm higher on Mayfield than he is, but you can tell by watching him on the NFL Network today he doesn't think Allen has any chance of being a good pro. It's really hard to find a QB, and the vast majority of first rounders who don't go #1 overall bust. Teams need to be very careful with who they risk blowing picks on. Drafting guys just for the sake of it rarely works out. Im not sold on a bunch of these guys. I love Rosen, think Darnold could be really good, and could live with Lamar Jackson. Not sure about mayfield. Could boom or bust. Want no part of rudolph - can’t get past the Texas game on him. Think Allen is EJ Manuel w a better arm and a bit more mystery about him.
BADOLBILZ Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, jrober38 said: This isn't really true. Over the 17 year drought, we drafted one All Pro (Marcell Dareus, 2014). Over the 17 year drought, we drafted 10 Pro Bowlers out of 139 total draft picks (Kyle Williams 5x, Marcel Dareus 2x, Jairus Byrd 3x, Aaron Schobel 2x, Terrance McGee 1x, Nate Clements 1x, Stephon GIlmore 1x, Marshawn Lynch 1x, Eric Wood 1x, Travis Henry 1x). That's an abysmal draft record. Of the 18 first round picks we had, only five of them ever made at least one Pro Bowl, and only one ever became an All Pro. Just terrible. Wrong. It's really true. Marshawn Lynch was an All Pro.........and 5X pro bowler not 1x.........and he's a likely HOF'er. And Donte Whitner.......yes Lil' Donte.......was also a 2x time Pro Bowler. Same for Willis McGahee........2x pro bowler.......10K yard RB. All three were Bills first rounders. Then there is Lee Evans who was basically good for around 900 yards receiving at 15 ypc clip in his first 6 seasons. Sammy Watkins was also extraordinary in his first two seasons in Buffalo. Lee Evans is the only one of those guys who saw a second contract in Buffalo...........some didn't even make it thru the first one. NOT "abysmal" first round selections..........just the WRONG selections because the team did not have a franchise QB to put them around. 1
SinceThe70s Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 38 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Get your QB..........then you can stick to your draft board for the next 15-20 years. Like it or not all other positions are basically disposable. During the drought the Bills drafted plenty of All Pro and Pro Bowl non-QB's in round one and yet they usually had only 4-5 of their first rounders on their roster each year...........which was the average length of time of a first round contract during the drought. When they finally made the playoffs they only had one first rounder on the active roster. Less of those did not matter. People who think the Bills should horde draft picks and use them on non-QB's just don't understand the math...........and clearly neither does Bucky Brooks. I agree with this, but what if a trade up to Get your QB isn't possible? Take the QB available at 12 (or even trade-up out of desperation) and hope for the best even though you don't believe in him? Take a non-QB at 12 and then try to use your draft capital to get the guy you don't believe in before 22? This Jets trade-up is like sand in my gears. Fun times though, looking forward to how it plays out. Trusting the process.
SoTier Posted March 24, 2018 Posted March 24, 2018 40 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: Not loving the word reach. Why is that? If you draft a player in the top ten who isn't nearly as good a prospect as others still available, you've reached for him. That's what the Bills did in 2006 when they took Donte Whitner because they needed a strong safety while DT Haloti Ngata was still on the board ... and then they traded back into the first to take bust DT John McCargo. The Bills did the same thing again in 2009 when they wasted the 11th overall pick on Aaron Maybin with Brian Orakpo still available. If the Bills hadn't traded back into the first round to take Losman in 2004, he would have probably been available in the 2nd, and if he wasn't, they could have taken Schaub or just pass on a QB and take one in 2005 ... and Aaron Rodgers would have been available at #18. 18 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Get your QB..........then you can stick to your draft board for the next 15-20 years. Like it or not all other positions are basically disposable. During the drought the Bills drafted plenty of All Pro and Pro Bowl non-QB's in round one and yet they usually had only 4-5 of their first rounders on their roster each year...........which was the average length of time of a first round contract during the drought. When they finally made the playoffs they only had one first rounder on the active roster. Less of those did not matter. People who think the Bills should horde draft picks and use them on non-QB's just don't understand the math...........and clearly neither does Bucky Brooks. One of the big reasons for the playoff drought was that the Bills were constantly drafting DBs, WRs, and RBs and then disposing of their first round picks when their rookie contracts were finished. They then used first and second round picks to replace them, so they had few high draft picks to invest in other positions. The Bills didn't draft for BPA or even for need during the playoff drought. They drafted to improve the bottom line, which is why the two QBs they did draft sucked ... they were both reaches that the Bills drafted in the first round because first round rookie QBs guarantee better ticket sales.
26CornerBlitz Posted March 24, 2018 Author Posted March 24, 2018 Just now, SoTier said: Why is that? If you draft a player in the top ten who isn't nearly as good a prospect as others still available, you've reached for him. That's what the Bills did in 2006 when they took Donte Whitner because they needed a strong safety while DT Haloti Ngata was still on the board ... and then they traded back into the first to take bust DT John McCargo. The Bills did the same thing again in 2009 when they wasted the 11th overall pick on Aaron Maybin with Brian Orakpo still available. If the Bills hadn't traded back into the first round to take Losman in 2004, he would have probably been available in the 2nd, and if he wasn't, they could have taken Schaub or just pass on a QB and take one in 2005 ... and Aaron Rodgers would have been available at #18. One of the big reasons for the playoff drought was that the Bills were constantly drafting DBs, WRs, and RBs and then disposing of their first round picks when their rookie contracts were finished. They then used first and second round picks to replace them, so they had few high draft picks to invest in other positions. The Bills didn't draft for BPA or even for need during the playoff drought. They drafted to improve the bottom line, which is why the two QBs they did draft sucked ... they were both reaches that the Bills drafted in the first round because first round rookie QBs guarantee better ticket sales. Do you really think I don't know what that means? Why are you trying to explain the obvious to me when the point is that's what I want the Bills to avoid?
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