Aaron Schatz: 2018 QB Boom and Bust Projections with QBASE

[dollars 2 donuts]

On March 23, 2018 at 1:42 PM, kdiggz said:

Yes that's exactly what I'm saying. Trade all players of value. They did trade them but they waited until after the season. Trade them before the season and you try and win with who you have, sure, but with Peterman at QB and who knows at RB we go 3-13 like you said. We would have our QB plus a TON of picks by not having to trade up. Could you imagine? We would be super bowl contenders in 2 yrs.

 

But hey I'm glad everyone liked that embarrassing 3 point playoff performance. Just know that it seriously hurt our rebuilding efforts.

 

 

One thing, though, kdiggz that I forgot: who looks Kyle Williams in the eye and tells him that we are gutting the team and/or telling him he was traded to the Browns as it was the best offer?

[K D]

16 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

One thing, though, kdiggz that I forgot: who looks Kyle Williams in the eye and tells him that we are gutting the team and/or telling him he was traded to the Browns as it was the best offer?

They played well with underdog type players. The best players on the team were new guys nobody had heard of. When new administration comes in you have to expect they will want their own players. It's just a part of the process. They did end up trading everyone except Hughes and Shady so why didn't they just do it before the season rather than after then get their QB plus 5 other picks in the top 100? We would have been stacked this year and super bowl contenders next year

[BuffaloRush]

i think the Bills want Baker

[PrimeTime101]

None of this.. absolutely NONE of this means squat till you start throwing in NFL.

[dbflaBill]

15 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

If he's as good as advertised, then his height won't matter.  It hasn't held Brees or Wilson back.  It didn't hold Flutie back, either.  The only red flag on Mayfield really is his height.  Of course, being really tall didn't do much for Mike Glennon or Brock Osweiler.

Height did hold flutie back as he spent a decade in the CFL. It's why Brees was a 2nd round pick and Wilson a third.. Many front office people look at the measurables and tend to grade them lower because of them. 

[SoTier]

14 hours ago, kdiggz said:

All of the teams you listed didn't have a QB. Get a QB at all costs. Look at PHI and LAR. Do you think they feel bad about trading up for a QB? They went from nobodies to super bowl contenders in 1 year

 

Excuse me, but they did.  Cleveland has drafted 3 or 4 QBs in the first round since 2005.  The Bills drafted Losman in the first round in 2004 and then drafted EJ Manuel in 2013.  They all busted.   How come Miami has only made the playoffs once since they drafted Tannehill?  How come the Chargers haven't made the playoffs in several years despite having Rivers? 

 

Y'know what the real common denominator is about teams breaking perpetual losing cycles?  It's FO and coaching!   The Vikings haven't had a bonafide top QB since Brett Favre retired, and yet they continue to make the playoffs.  They made the playoffs with first round bust Christian Ponder as their QB.  They went to the NFC Championship last year with their backup QB as their starter almost the entire season. 

 

YOU look at Philly and LAR.  Goff was considered a likely bust off his play as a rookie.  Despite having some decent talent, the Rams had sucked for years under Jeff Fisher.  New FO, new coaching staff, and voila! the Rams are now the power in the NFC West.  Wentz was decent as a rookie QB, but he really came into his own in 2017, but when he went down in November, almost everybody figured that the Eagles were done.  They limped into the playoffs with a backup QB, but the Philly coaching staff worked with him and got him prepped for the playoffs -- and they created a masterful game plan to beat the Patriots.   Without McVay and Pederson, it's likely Goff resembles Losman and Wentz resembles Tannehill more than they do the best looking young QBs to come into the league since 2012.

 

It seems to me that the Bills have, for the first time since Bill Polian left, a FO and a coaching staff that's committed to winning.  I don't think "tanking" for the slim chance of being able to pick a collegiate QB as their "savior" is in Beane and McDermott's DNA even if it's in yours.  It's not in the DNA of any team that consistently wins and makes the post season and sometimes the Super Bowl.  They play every game to win unless it's at the very end of the season, and they can't better their playoff slots.  That's how NE plays the game.  That's how Philly and Pittsburgh and Minnesota and Green Bay and Seattle and Carolina play the game.  That's how the Bills need to play the game, too.

 

[K D]

You make no sense. So you think we have a good FO and coaching staff now but you don't want them to get a QB? Yet the other QB's are successful because they have a good coach? You are right, let's just never get a QB so they never have the opportunity to get one that busts

[Batman1876]

3 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Excuse me, but they did.  Cleveland has drafted 3 or 4 QBs in the first round since 2005.  The Bills drafted Losman in the first round in 2004 and then drafted EJ Manuel in 2013.  They all busted.   How come Miami has only made the playoffs once since they drafted Tannehill?  How come the Chargers haven't made the playoffs in several years despite having Rivers? 

 

Y'know what the real common denominator is about teams breaking perpetual losing cycles?  It's FO and coaching!   The Vikings haven't had a bonafide top QB since Brett Favre retired, and yet they continue to make the playoffs.  They made the playoffs with first round bust Christian Ponder as their QB.  They went to the NFC Championship last year with their backup QB as their starter almost the entire season. 

 

YOU look at Philly and LAR.  Goff was considered a likely bust off his play as a rookie.  Despite having some decent talent, the Rams had sucked for years under Jeff Fisher.  New FO, new coaching staff, and voila! the Rams are now the power in the NFC West.  Wentz was decent as a rookie QB, but he really came into his own in 2017, but when he went down in November, almost everybody figured that the Eagles were done.  They limped into the playoffs with a backup QB, but the Philly coaching staff worked with him and got him prepped for the playoffs -- and they created a masterful game plan to beat the Patriots.   Without McVay and Pederson, it's likely Goff resembles Losman and Wentz resembles Tannehill more than they do the best looking young QBs to come into the league since 2012.

 

It seems to me that the Bills have, for the first time since Bill Polian left, a FO and a coaching staff that's committed to winning.  I don't think "tanking" for the slim chance of being able to pick a collegiate QB as their "savior" is in Beane and McDermott's DNA even if it's in yours.  It's not in the DNA of any team that consistently wins and makes the post season and sometimes the Super Bowl.  They play every game to win unless it's at the very end of the season, and they can't better their playoff slots.  That's how NE plays the game.  That's how Philly and Pittsburgh and Minnesota and Green Bay and Seattle and Carolina play the game.  That's how the Bills need to play the game, too.

 

Cleveland has drafted 3 first round QBs since 2005. But all three were second tier prospects picked up as “value picks” in the 20s. 

[K D]

3 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

Cleveland has drafted 3 first round QBs since 2005. But all three were second tier prospects picked up as “value picks” in the 20s. 

As was JP Losman and EJ Manuel. But that doesn't fit his argument of us just never selecting a QB because he's scared they will bust.

[thebandit27]

19 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

 

Model projection number 2 basically agrees with my rankings: top 4 are Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield/Allen (although I have it Rosen-Mayfield-Darnold-Allen) and then a gap to Jackson

 

Side note: lots of people in this thread are off the rails with their Allen analysis.  

[SoTier]

36 minutes ago, dbflaBill said:

Height did hold flutie back as he spent a decade in the CFL. It's why Brees was a 2nd round pick and Wilson a third.. Many front office people look at the measurables and tend to grade them lower because of them. 

 

That's true, but that's like saying being black held back Satchel Paige because segregation in baseball forced him to play nearly all of his career in the Negro baseball leagues rather than in the majors  (Satchel).   Being black didn't affect how Paige played, just where he played and the length of his MLB career.  Flutie's height was the same way.  Flutie was absolutely great in the CFL, and he proved to be pretty good in the NFL in his very limited opportunities.  He was certainly much better than the conventionally tall Rob Johnson.

 

Personally, whether the Bills get him or not (I hope they do), I hope Mayfield tears up the league.  Maybe having 3 great short QBs in the league at the same time would wake up these FO folks to realize that there's more to being a QB than simply size and arm strength! 

[SouthNYfan]

16 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

If he's as good as advertised, then his height won't matter.  It hasn't held Brees or Wilson back.  It didn't hold Flutie back, either.  The only red flag on Mayfield really is his height.  Of course, being really tall didn't do much for Mike Glennon or Brock Osweiler.

 

Being really tall isn't good either, as you generally will have longer arms and legs, leading to longer, slower delivery mechanics.

This was actually an issue with flacco early on, and it was pretty well documented at the time the massive work the Ravens staff went through with Joe to shorten his stance and quicken his release.

They would have him almost crouch/hunch and short arm it for a bit to teach him to shorten his motion.

 

The other thing with Mayfield might be his attitude.

I couldn't care less about his police run in, but his fiery persona on the field has drawbacks.

It's great when winning and things go right, but what about when it doesn't?

Will he be getting in guys' faces, yelling at them, and blaming them in the locker room and with the media?

Brady is fiery, and an ahole to boot, but he wins, and I don't really hear him calling guys out publicly.

Jordan and Kobe used to call guys out , but would take the blame when it was on them also.

They were notoriously hard to play with, and would berate and belittle guys in practice and in the locker room.

There's countless guys who wouldn't take responsibility and blamed every other guy around them though (TO, moss, Ryan Leaf come to mind).

Will Mayfield's personality be Jordan/Kobe/Brady, it will it be Leaf/moss/TO?

it's a red flag to be concerned with, but not one that I'm overly concerned with, but I bet a few teams are.

[Domdab99]

This is why we MUST stay clear of Allen....he's going to be a Ryan Leaf-type bust

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Being really tall isn't good either, as you generally will have longer arms and legs, leading to longer, slower delivery mechanics.

This was actually an issue with flacco early on, and it was pretty well documented at the time the massive work the Ravens staff went through with Joe to shorten his stance and quicken his release.

They would have him almost crouch/hunch and short arm it for a bit to teach him to shorten his motion.

 

The other thing with Mayfield might be his attitude.

I couldn't care less about his police run in, but his fiery persona on the field has drawbacks.

It's great when winning and things go right, but what about when it doesn't?

Will he be getting in guys' faces, yelling at them, and blaming them in the locker room and with the media?

Brady is fiery, and an ahole to boot, but he wins, and I don't really hear him calling guys out publicly.

Jordan and Kobe used to call guys out , but would take the blame when it was on them also.

They were notoriously hard to play with, and would berate and belittle guys in practice and in the locker room.

There's countless guys who wouldn't take responsibility and blamed every other guy around them though (TO, moss, Ryan Leaf come to mind).

Will Mayfield's personality be Jordan/Kobe/Brady, it will it be Leaf/moss/TO?

it's a red flag to be concerned with, but not one that I'm overly concerned with, but I bet a few teams are.

 

Good points, especially about the problems faced by tall QBs. 

 

People, including QBs, can and frequently do learn to control their tempers, especially as they mature.  What QBs can't learn to do is process/translate what they see into action faster than they naturally do.  They simply can't adjust to the speed of the pro game.  It doesn't appear that QBs can significantly change/improve their throwing motions, their  ball placement, or their ability to see the field, either.  All of these things contribute far more to a QB's success or failure than whether he has a temper -- or whether he's only 6' tall rather than 6'2" or 6'8".

[BarleyNY]

On 3/23/2018 at 12:58 PM, DCOrange said:

http://insider2text.xyz/articles/b1b0cec07d40a798

 

Thank you!

[Solomon Grundy]

14 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

None of this.. absolutely NONE of this means squat till you start throwing in NFL.

NFL using a lot of analytics. Bills are incorporating it in its day to day ops.

[PrimeTime101]

10 minutes ago, the skycap said:

NFL using a lot of analytics. Bills are incorporating it in its day to day ops.

no. what they look at is game play tape. that's 80% into there decision. if you think they look into analytics the way WGR or these message boards do then your easily fooled. You look at statistics and then you spend 10 x the time reviewing how they arrived to those stats. but most decisions have been made in gameplay tapes.

[Real McClappy]

On 3/23/2018 at 1:00 PM, DCOrange said:

Keeping in mind that these ratings do not factor rushing in at all, which obviously hurts Lamar the most.

 

The overall rankings are:

 

1. Baker Mayfield (4th highest they've had dating back to 1997, behind only Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, and Donovan McNabb)

2. Lamar Jackson

3. Josh Rosen

4. Sam Darnold

5. Mason Rudolph

6. Luke Falk

7. Kyle Lauletta

8. Josh Allen

This is cool. My top 3 QB's match

[Real McClappy]

19 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Allen and Jackson should drop to the late 2nd rd. They will probably be overdrafted due to QB demand. 

LOL

[26CornerBlitz]