Previously the "Convince me Allen won't suck" thread, now the... "you're welcome" thread

[RFL]

18 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Seriously.

 

I know that people here really believe in him... why?

 

Plenty of past NFL players have been drafted for physical potential (Ryan Leaf, RG3, Jamarcus Russell, Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, etc) and have simply flamed out. 

 

I've never seen a college QB so devoid of college production being propped up this much based off of what I can only believe to be purely physical potential.

 

It's head scratching and infuriating because this guy looks like a project 2nd or 3rd round QB at best, to me.

 

What are people focused on? Throws he can make??? Haven't we had enough of these project QBs that are "balls of clay" for us to mold?

 

There's something I'm missing.

 

What is it?

 

I know there isn't a single QB in the NFL HOF with his forgettable production from a second-rate college football program like Wyoming. Is he supposedly going to break that trend?

 

What the hell... someone explain this to me so I can get behind him sooner rather than later if we draft him...

 

 

hopefully, we don't.

 

People are buying into the ratings hype. Ive read so many articles of reporters saying the Bills trade 4 picks, including next years 1st, just to take a shot for a guy who could be a total bust.Unless Beane can work some magic, I hope we stick with our 2 picks, we have too many holes. The ultimate example of course is Tom Brady selected #199, 6th round......I still say we take a QB with one of our 1st rounders.

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I'll go with Stafford or Favre. They were pretty good.

 

No way... Stafford was sooOOooo much better in college.

 

And Favre played college ball 30 years ago when the game wasn't nearly as QB friendly... and he was a 2nd round pick.

47 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Are you convinced yet?

 

 

Nope.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Favre also played in the 80s in college...

 

and he was a 2nd round pick, not a top 10 pick as Allen is projected.

 

It's not the best comparison I agree.  But at the same time, there were plenty of QBs in 89-90 who were completing 60% of their passes etc.  Favre was drafted based on his potential, and not considered a safe sure-fire guy.

 

I think the only reason Allen is sniffing the top 10 right now is because of how QB-driven everything is now.

[dave mcbride]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

black population of less than 1%???

 

Where did that analyzing lead you???

 

 

My point is that it is harder to attract black players to a school like Wyoming. You are aware that nearly 60 percent of D1 football players are black, yes?

[oldmanfan]

When Allen was at the Senior Bowl with better guys around him, I thought he looked pretty good.

[dave mcbride]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

black population of less than 1%???

 

Where did that analyzing lead you???

 

PS - re my response above. Note which state is in dead last place. https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/8/23/12607342/recruits-states-rankings

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

When Allen was at the Senior Bowl with better guys around him, I thought he looked pretty good.

 

He made some nice throws. I also saw him miss a bunch of really easy ones. 

 

That's what you get though. That's what all the scouting reports say. 

 

He'll wow you once or maybe twice a game, but he'll miss a handful of throws that should move the chains. 

[17 Josh Allen]

Josh Allen is the Best QB in this draft and it’s not even close. This guy is the next Big Ben but he might be better. Yes that’s correct better in my opinion. One of the best arms ever. There is no area on the field that he can’t get it too. If the Bills get Josh Allen they will be out of QB purgatory. Also for the record I do like the A.J Maccaron signing. He can hold down the fort until Josh is up to speed. We can win with A.J. and make the playoffs. He is better then Tyrod. So if we can make the playoffs with Tyrod we can do it with A.J. We could end up with a Phillip Rivers, Drew Brees situation like the Chargers had back in the day. 2pm today on NFL Network Josh Allen pro day. Also Josh Allen is either 1st or 2nd rated QB on most draft niks boards. I just find it funny that most have this guy going in top 5 picks or first over all and people on this board are saying they would not take him in the 3rd round. I think I will side with the experts. You guys are in for a rude awaking and will regret saying how bad you think he is. I can’t wait to see you all eat crow. 

Edited March 23, 2018 by Thurmanator 12074

[jrober38]

5 minutes ago, Thurmanator 12074 said:

Josh Allen is the Best QB in this draft and it’s not even close. This guy is the next Big Ben but he might be better. Yes that’s correct better in my opinion. One of the best arms ever. There is no area on the field that he can’t get it too. If the Bills get Josh Allen they will be out of QB purgatory. Also for the record I do like the A.J Maccaron signing. He can hold down the fort until Josh is up to speed. We can win with A.J. and make the playoffs. He is better then Tyrod. So if we can make the playoffs with Tyrod we can do it with A.J. We could end up with a Phillip Rivers, Drew Brees situation like the Chargers had back in the day. 2pm today on NFL Network Josh Allen pro day. Also Josh Allen is either 1st or 2nd rated QB on most draft niks boards. I just find it funny that most have this guy going in top 5 picks or first over all and people on this board are saying they would not take him in the 3rd round. I think I will side with the experts. You guys are in for a rude awaking and will regret saying how bad you think he is. I can’t wait to see you all eat crow. 

 

When has raw arm strength ever dictated success in the NFL?

 

Brady's arm is only average (at best).

 

Brees' arm is only average.

 

Montana's arm was only average.

 

Peyton's arm is pretty average (certainly not a cannon). 

 

Rodgers, Marino and Elway all had huge arms, but they also had elite accuracy. 

 

What does every elite NFL QB in the history of the game have in common? ACCURACY, which is what Allen struggles with badly. 

[thebandit27]

 

 

What does every elite NFL QB in the history of the game have in common? ACCURACY, which is what Allen struggles with badly. 

 

This doesn't get any more true regardless of how often it's repeated...

 

Dan Marino - 59.4% career passer

Jim Kelly - 60.1% career passer

John Elway - 56.9% career passer

 

You want to say it's more important in today's game?  Fine, go ahead.  Let's stop trotting out false narratives like "every elite QB was pinpoint accurate", "guys below 60% in college don't make it in the NFL", and "accuracy never takes a big jump from college to the NFL", because every single one of those is simply untrue.

[dave mcbride]

38 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

This doesn't get any more true regardless of how often it's repeated...

 

Dan Marino - 59.4% career passer

Jim Kelly - 60.1% career passer

John Elway - 56.9% career passer

 

You want to say it's more important in today's game?  Fine, go ahead.  Let's stop trotting out false narratives like "every elite QB was pinpoint accurate", "guys below 60% in college don't make it in the NFL", and "accuracy never takes a big jump from college to the NFL", because every single one of those is simply untrue.

I don't think I disagree with you all that much, but after 1990, has there been a qb drafted with a sub-60 percent completion rate in his final college year (besides Matt Ryan - 59.3) who turned out be an excellent thrower in the NFL? I don't mean the Vicks of the world.  Incidentally, Kaepernick was 58.2 overall but 64.9 in their senior year. Carson Palmer was 59.1 but 63.2 in his senior year. Donovan McNabb was sub-60 but 62.5 in his senior year. I literally can't find anyone.  To be fair, Favre was drafted in 1990, and he was 54.5 in his senior year.  Since 2000 (with three minor exceptions given that they were all close to 60 percent), the decent-to-great ones were all above 60 percent in their final years and most significantly so: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Dalton Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, Flacco, Cousins, Dak Prescott, Palmer, Derek Carr, Luck, Watson, Goff, Garrapolo, Bradford, Trubisky, Stafford, Newton, Brees, Foles, Winston, Wentz,  Mariota, Bortles, and Tannehill. 

 

The three exceptions? Matt Ryan at 59.3, Tyrod Taylor at 59.7, and Jay Cutler at 59.1. That said, Cutler was 61.0 in his junior year, and Ryan was 61.6 and 62.1 in his two previous years (and 59.9 overall).  For argument's sake, let's just make the cutoff 59.0. If Allen succeeded, he'd be the only one below the threshold, and 56.0 is *significantly* beneath it. 

Edited March 23, 2018 by dave mcbride

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I don't think I disagree with you all that much, but after 1990, has there been a qb drafted with a sub-60 percent completion rate in his final college year (besides Matt Ryan - 59.3) who turned out be an excellent thrower in the NFL? I don't mean the Vicks of the world.  Incidentally, Kaepernick was 58.2 overall but 64.9 in their senior year. Carson Palmer was 59.1 but 63.2 in his senior year. Donovan McNabb was sub-60 but 62.5 in his senior year. I literally can't find anyone.  To be fair, Favre was drafted in 1990, and he was 54.5 in his senior year.  Since 2000 (with three minor exceptions given that they were all close to 60 percent), the decent-to-great ones were all above 60 percent in their final years and most significantly so: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Dalton Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, Flacco, Cousins, Dak Prescott, Palmer, Derek Carr, Luck, Watson, Goff, Garrapolo, Bradford, Trubisky, Stafford, Newton, Brees, Foles, Winston, Wentz,  Mariota, Bortles, and Tannehill. 

 

The three exceptions? Matt Ryan at 59.3, Tyrod Taylor at 59.7, and Jay Cutler at 59.1. That said, Cutler was 61.0 in his junior year, and Ryan was 61.6 and 62.1 in his two previous years (and 59.9 overall).  For argument's sake, let's just make the cutoff 59.0. If Allen succeeded, he'd be the only one below the threshold, and 56.0 is *significantly* beneath it. 

 

Oh I absolutely recognize the distinction where completion percentage is concerned, and I appreciate that certain folks are willing to dig into the numbers and actually recognize the trends.

 

I still have Allen as my QB4, and he's obviously got some deficiencies to correct at the next level.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Oh I absolutely recognize the distinction where completion percentage is concerned, and I appreciate that certain folks are willing to dig into the numbers and actually recognize the trends.

 

I still have Allen as my QB4, and he's obviously got some deficiencies to correct at the next level.

I agree, and I stand by what I say above regarding the severe limits on talent acquisition at a godforsaken place like Laramie, Wyoming. 

[Tyrod's friend]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

This doesn't get any more true regardless of how often it's repeated...

 

Dan Marino - 59.4% career passer

Jim Kelly - 60.1% career passer

John Elway - 56.9% career passer

 

You want to say it's more important in today's game?  Fine, go ahead.  Let's stop trotting out false narratives like "every elite QB was pinpoint accurate", "guys below 60% in college don't make it in the NFL", and "accuracy never takes a big jump from college to the NFL", because every single one of those is simply untrue.

 

First, can we stop with the lunacy of looking at guys that played the game 30 years ago? When will a pitcher get a 1.12 ERA or a batter hit .400 again? Why can't I compare Wilt Chamberlain's stats with modern players? C'mon.

That said, I wouldn't say completion percentage is more important. 

It is more common place, and hence more relevant. When Marino and Kelly were completing 60% of their college passes, the better players in the NFL were completing around 63%. They were close. Today, a guy in college completing 56-58% of his passes would compare to better players completing between 65 and 72%.

It's significant.

Beyond that WTF cares about completion percent, especially in a world where some guys are throwing shuttle passes in college to the RB?
Look at relevant stats that you would use to consider a QB, like YPC or YPA. 

And just by the way, from that lens Baker Mayfield is a full standard deviation better than players like Rosen and Darnold. Rudolph isn't far behind Mayfield, and both Mayfield and Rudolph compare very favorably to professional players.

If you think that muscle memory, and making literally thousands of in-game attempts, won't affect your progression against substantially better competition, you are an idiot.

Edited March 23, 2018 by Tyrod's friend

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

 

First, can we stop with the lunacy of looking at guys that played the game 30 years ago? When will a pitcher get a 1.12 ERA or a batter hit .400 again? Why can't I compare Wilt Chamberlain's stats with modern players? C'mon.

That said, I wouldn't say completion percentage is more important. 

It is more common place, and hence more relevant. When Marino and Kelly were completing 60% of their college passes, the better players in the NFL were completing around 63%. They were close. A guy in college completing 56-58% of his passes would compare to better players completing between 65 and 72%.

It's significant.

Beyond that WTF cares about completion percent, especially in a world where some guys are throwing shuttle passes in college to the RB?
Look at relevant stats that you would use to consider a QB, like YPC or YPA. 

Allen was 6.7 ypa this season, although he was 8.3 the year before.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Thurmanator 12074 said:

Josh Allen is the Best QB in this draft and it’s not even close. This guy is the next Big Ben but he might be better. Yes that’s correct better in my opinion. One of the best arms ever. There is no area on the field that he can’t get it too. If the Bills get Josh Allen they will be out of QB purgatory. Also for the record I do like the A.J Maccaron signing. He can hold down the fort until Josh is up to speed. We can win with A.J. and make the playoffs. He is better then Tyrod. So if we can make the playoffs with Tyrod we can do it with A.J. We could end up with a Phillip Rivers, Drew Brees situation like the Chargers had back in the day. 2pm today on NFL Network Josh Allen pro day. Also Josh Allen is either 1st or 2nd rated QB on most draft niks boards. I just find it funny that most have this guy going in top 5 picks or first over all and people on this board are saying they would not take him in the 3rd round. I think I will side with the experts. You guys are in for a rude awaking and will regret saying how bad you think he is. I can’t wait to see you all eat crow. 

 

If we draft Allen, I'm going to have more confidence in AJ McCarron becoming our Franchise QB than Josh Allen.

[thebandit27]

42 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

 

First, can we stop with the lunacy of looking at guys that played the game 30 years ago? When will a pitcher get a 1.12 ERA or a batter hit .400 again? Why can't I compare Wilt Chamberlain's stats with modern players? C'mon.

That said, I wouldn't say completion percentage is more important. 

It is more common place, and hence more relevant. When Marino and Kelly were completing 60% of their college passes, the better players in the NFL were completing around 63%. They were close. Today, a guy in college completing 56-58% of his passes would compare to better players completing between 65 and 72%.

It's significant.

Beyond that WTF cares about completion percent, especially in a world where some guys are throwing shuttle passes in college to the RB?
Look at relevant stats that you would use to consider a QB, like YPC or YPA. 

And just by the way, from that lens Baker Mayfield is a full standard deviation better than players like Rosen and Darnold. Rudolph isn't far behind Mayfield, and both Mayfield and Rudolph compare very favorably to professional players.

If you think that muscle memory, and making literally thousands of in-game attempts, won't affect your progression against substantially better competition, you are an idiot.

 

You definitely missed the point, which was that we shouldn't be throwing around false statements in this discussion.

 

For what it's worth, calling people idiots also doesn't help...especially when the point you're getting at is incorrect.  Players improve their accuracy all the time in the NFL.  Drew Brees is the most accurate QB of all time; he was a 61% passer in college (and for the record, his completion % took a dip in each of his final 2 seasons at Purdue).

 

As for the comparison to the "better players" of today, you're off again.  Brees blows up the curve at 72%--he's the outlier.  Excepting Brees, accuracy in the NFL amongst franchise QBs ranges from 59%--where you find guys like Newton and Dalton (Wentz was just a shade above 60 and Russ Wilson a bit above 61) to 67%--where you find the a quartet of guys that, prior to 2017, were considered relative nobodies in Keenum, Garrapolo, A. Smith, and Josh McCown (that last guy, by the way, averaged a 51% completion rate in college).

 

If you want to talk about a statistic more closely correlated with QB performance, you could look at YPA, but you'll want to be really cautious about that since it varies pretty significantly among franchise QBs coming out of college.  For example, Matt Ryan's YPA was 6.9 for his college career, while a guy like Wentz's was 8.4.

 

The point is, you can't simply boil it down to "look at the numbers", since there isn't really a standard correlation between any set of college numbers and success in the NFL.  I'll refrain from calling you names if you can't see that.

Edited March 23, 2018 by thebandit27

[NewEraBills]

I'll be honest, I'm afraid of Allen in the 1st round.  Just completely afraid of him.  His potential upside does not alleviate that fear.  I'll just say it this way.  I like his potential upside, but I'm more comfortable taking Mason Rudolph in rd 2 then taking Allen in rd 1 and I'm not very high on Rudolph.

[Tyrod's friend]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

You definitely missed the point, which was that we shouldn't be throwing around false statements in this discussion.

 

For what it's worth, calling people idiots also doesn't help...especially when the point you're getting at is incorrect.  Players improve their accuracy all the time in the NFL.  Drew Brees is the most accurate QB of all time; he was a 61% passer in college (and for the record, his completion % took a dip in each of his final 2 seasons at Purdue).

 

As for the comparison to the "better players" of today, you're off again.  Brees blows up the curve at 72%--he's the outlier.  Excepting Brees, accuracy in the NFL amongst franchise QBs ranges from 59%--where you find guys like Newton and Dalton (Wentz was just a shade above 60 and Russ Wilson a bit above 61) to 67%--where you find the a quartet of guys that, prior to 2017, were considered relative nobodies in Keenum, Garrapolo, A. Smith, and Josh McCown (that last guy, by the way, averaged a 51% completion rate in college).

 

If you want to talk about a statistic more closely correlated with QB performance, you could look at YPA, but you'll want to be really cautious about that since it varies pretty significantly among franchise QBs coming out of college.  For example, Matt Ryan's YPA was 6.9 for his college career, while a guy like Wentz's was 8.4.

 

The point is, you can't simply boil it down to "look at the numbers", since there isn't really a standard correlation between any set of college numbers and success in the NFL.  I'll refrain from calling you names if you can't see that.

Please keep in mind that I am not interested in average QBs, I make a point to differentiate "better players". While I wasn't specific, I was looking at the players that roughly would have been in the top ten.

Let's look at your blanket statement about players "getting better all the time".

 

Wilson, most of his career: 64.7. BTW, never really increased his completion percentage, and last year was a definite outlier. Little standard deviation for most all of his career.
Brees, for the first six years, 64%. He didn't suddenly improve his accuracy after 2009; it involved a system change. Then after that point, he was consistent again between his 70.6% and last year's 72. Again, the numbers after 2009 are remarkably consistent.

Tom Brady in reality has had next to no change over a long career. He has had outlier years, but his 63.9% completion percentage is within 1.2% /- of his entire career.
Philip Rivers, 64% completion rate in his first six years. Not much standard deviation there really; and at this point in his career, its a 64.2% increase. Very impressive in his ability to improve.
Dan Marino, moved from completing 58 to 64% of his passes from his rookie year. But from his rookie year until 1992, he completed on average 59.2% of his passes. BTW, it compares with a lifetime 59.4% of his passes.

Shall we go on?
Peyton Manning: on a bad team his first year. But in between that year and his next to last season? He completed 66% of his passes between 2000 and 2014 and I think you'll find the deviation there is around 1% plus or minus the entirety of his career.
Eli? The meat of his career he completed around 59% of his passes again, +/- 1%. His career average is 60% and he did improve the last four or five years, which brings me to ...

You should be careful using a player that had no statistical background really and using him as an example of "improving". I'm not sure if the fan base is willing to wait for a QB to be in the league for 15 years like McCown to suddenly bloom. I mean, the Giants did wait 12 years. But let's say this: after leaving college, McCown was pretty consistently poor in the NFL and in his first full go-round he completed 57% of his passes. Not terribly far from his college days when he was also an underperformer in the area.
 

History and Brees: There is always someone who blows up the end of a distribution curve, isn't there? That's why you have a curve. But in 1983, Ken Anderson at 67% was a full 10% better than the middle of the top ten, when most of the better players were posting up between 64 and 60%, which is precisely what I was saying. Remarkably, Drew Brees was around 10% better than the meat of the curve, which last year was roughly 65%. But I digress from my point ... the next 9 guys in the NFL completed between 58 and 64% of their passes in 1982. Marino and Kelly's college statistics would have fit in quite nicely in that group. A few years later, they in fact were in that group precisely.

Side note: Kelly leapt forward in 91 and 92 as we all know. And as we all know very well, that was the height of an offensive scheme change.

Regarding YPA isn't nearly as relevant as YPC. And context is always relevant. I discounted completion percentage as a relevant stat. 

Idiot - I wasn't talking to you in particular, but I'll stand by my comments generally. 

Muscle memory and severe reps are important and they really don't change things a lot. Giving people hope that a QB is going to suddenly leap forward? Pfff. You like to use the phrase outlier, and I'm good with that. It happens, one or two guys make a leap and they capture the imagination. But the core of completing a pass? Of whether or not you are comfortable downfield or not? Not so much.

I'm betting that the two best QBs from this draft are the ones doing the things that we expect an NFL QB to do, doing those things a lot and successfully. And one of them won't be Josh Rosen.

Edit: I'll add this ... yes I am around this board a lot saying McCarron will surprise most fans. It will surprise me no end if McCarron doesn't beat the best single season completion rate in our team's history by 2%. All he knows how to do, is put the ball in someone else's hands far away from himself. It's all he's ever done. It's about muscle memory.

Things don't change in that regard. They. Just. Don't.

Edited March 23, 2018 by Tyrod's friend

[Tyrod's friend]

58 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

You definitely missed the point, which was that we shouldn't be throwing around false statements in this discussion.

 

For what it's worth, calling people idiots also doesn't help...especially when the point you're getting at is incorrect.  Players improve their accuracy all the time in the NFL.  Drew Brees is the most accurate QB of all time; he was a 61% passer in college (and for the record, his completion % took a dip in each of his final 2 seasons at Purdue).

 

As for the comparison to the "better players" of today, you're off again.  Brees blows up the curve at 72%--he's the outlier.  Excepting Brees, accuracy in the NFL amongst franchise QBs ranges from 59%--where you find guys like Newton and Dalton (Wentz was just a shade above 60 and Russ Wilson a bit above 61) to 67%--where you find the a quartet of guys that, prior to 2017, were considered relative nobodies in Keenum, Garrapolo, A. Smith, and Josh McCown (that last guy, by the way, averaged a 51% completion rate in college).

 

If you want to talk about a statistic more closely correlated with QB performance, you could look at YPA, but you'll want to be really cautious about that since it varies pretty significantly among franchise QBs coming out of college.  For example, Matt Ryan's YPA was 6.9 for his college career, while a guy like Wentz's was 8.4.

 

The point is, you can't simply boil it down to "look at the numbers", since there isn't really a standard correlation between any set of college numbers and success in the NFL.  I'll refrain from calling you names if you can't see that.

You can look at the numbers; you can look to see who is doing what in what context, then see how the better professionals were doing at the same time. Numbers aren't everything. They just are not nothing. 

In 1983, the best completion percentage belonged to Ken Anderson at 67%. 
In 2017, the best completion percentage belonged to Drew Brees at 72%.

Both of these guys were about 10% better than the median of the next ten guys. The comp, between a college player and a pro player isn't to say they should be Ken Anderson and Drew Brees. It should be to the median of the next ten guys - because that is where they are going to be in the professionals. 

And by the way, you are right - Brees had a 61% completion rate at Purdue. The top NFL completion rate the year before he went professional was Warner's near 68%. The next nine were between Griese at 64% and a group of guys at roughly between ... 60.8 and 62.5%.

Just to repeat, completion percentage isn't a whole lot without the context of an offense. But if you put the ball in the air a lot, push it downfield a lot, and complete the ball a lot to those guys downfield? Uh, yeah. You got a pretty good shot. And those are numbers. 

Edited March 23, 2018 by Tyrod's friend