Previously the "Convince me Allen won't suck" thread, now the... "you're welcome" thread

[blacklabel]

*ahem* Josh Allen won't suck in the NFL..... or maybe he will. Check back in 2 or 3 years.

[Big Turk]

Can't. Cant convince you ANY of these QBs wont suck...NONE of them are Andrew Luck cant miss prospects. People keep trying to hype them up but they just aren't as good as people want to make them out to be and we will find out on draft day how the NFL teams truly feel...my guess is there will be guys that drop out of the top 10 and guys that drop into round 2 because the media loves them more than the GMs and scouts do...

 

Especially when you start talking about the 3rd or 4th best QB compared to the best player at their position that will still be there on a lot of boards....makes it kinda hard to justify pulling the trigger.

Edited March 22, 2018 by matter2003

[BuffaloSol]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yep this is why I don't care about completion percentage at the college level. Manuel was exactly the same type of prospect and failed the same way Josh Allen will fail.

Lol he was not even close to the exact prospect, much different talent level. That doesn't mean he will be good but, he has much more upside than EJ ever had. The kid shows flashes of greatness, has all the physical tools, along with the willingness to work hard. That's why he doesn't automatically suck. He might end up sucking, but it's far from an open and shut case.

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You've shown a few examples of good throws. I'm talking about the overall trend. I could go find that Eliot Crist Twitter thread, it's pretty open and shut. He will not suddenly fix his terrible ball placement and decision making when the game is moving 10 times faster. It's never happened before. I have to think that if Mahomes and Allen bust we'll stop seeing these kinds of QBs get drafted high.

Why do you think that  Mahomes is going to be a bust? KC handled him the way Allen is probably going to be handled. His first year was a prep year for the most part. He played in the last game and did well. Mahomes must have impressed the KC staff well enough for them to dispatch their long term starter. 

 

When watching clips of Allen you do see him make some well placed throws. Some of his long bucket throws are stunningly impressive. That shows you that getting him to be consistent with his mechanics he can be more consistent with his accuracy. Your hesitancy on Allen is understandable. But the same hesitancy you have on him is the same hesitancy that exists for all of the top qbs in this draft. Don't let perfect be the enemy of the good. 

 

 

[HappyDays]

37 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

You're pointing to Matt Stafford as the one QB who's had okay success at the NFL level but completely ignoring the long list of guys who've completely flamed out. 

 

Matt Stafford isn't a good comparison anyways. He was a consensus #1 because on top of his elite arm strength he also regularly threaded the ball into tight windows and was generally accurate. He had better footwork than Josh Allen and he played well against pressure (Allen is terrible with even a small amount of pressure). The questions on Stafford were on his decision making/gunslinger attitude. Rosen is a much better comparison to Stafford IMO. Josh Allen is like Kyle Boller.

5 minutes ago, BuffaloSol said:

The kid shows flashes of greatness, has all the physical tools, along with the willingness to work hard.

 

Haha this is exactly what people used to say about EJ. Word for word. I hated when we picked him too. Any time a QB is being touted for his "physical tools" you know he is a 2nd round project at best.

[CuddyDark]

He's really just as restrictive as Lamar Jackson. Allen depends on the system you run. If he went to the Steelers and they ran the same offense they run with Big Ben he could be good. If you try to put him in a quick passing West Coast system he might suck. He'd be good in the west coast the Packers or the Saints run. You have to let him throw deep on almost every play. You have to design an offense of deep outs and deep posts and comebacks and back shoulders. You have to understand from the day you get him he may never see underneath throws like the offense they run in NE.

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Why do you think that  Mahomes is going to be a bust? KC handled him the way Allen is probably going to be handled. His first year was a prep year for the most part. He played in the last game and did well. Mahomes must have impressed the KC staff well enough for them to dispatch their long term starter. 

 

I like Mahomes better than I like Allen. Mostly because he can throw on the run and I think his deep ball is much more accurate than Allen's. When Allen moves his feet his ball placement is terrible. I see him as being an all time bust if he goes in the top 5.

 

And I think Mahomes will bust because he isn't accurate enough on the common throws every QB needs to make. I agree KC did the right thing sitting him his whole rookie year. I am less sure that they did the right thing jettisoning Alex Smith and forcing Mahomes into the starting role. Smith was one of the best QBs in the NFL at pushing the ball down the field last year. He had the #1 passer rating on deep throws. That's supposed to be Mahomes's strength but it's incredibly unlikely that he'll do better than Smith did. I think it will blow up in their face but we'll see.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Matt Stafford isn't a good comparison anyways. He was a consensus #1 because on top of his elite arm strength he also regularly threaded the ball into tight windows and was generally accurate. He had better footwork than Josh Allen and he played well against pressure (Allen is terrible with even a small amount of pressure). The questions on Stafford were on his decision making/gunslinger attitude. Rosen is a much better comparison to Stafford IMO. Josh Allen is like Kyle Boller.

 

Haha this is exactly what people used to say about EJ. Word for word. I hated when we picked him too. Any time a QB is being touted for his "physical tools" you know he is a 2nd round project at best.

 

The man had the nerve to mention Josh McCown as a success story lol

[thebandit27]

21 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Matt Stafford isn't a good comparison anyways. He was a consensus #1 because on top of his elite arm strength he also regularly threaded the ball into tight windows and was generally accurate. He had better footwork than Josh Allen and he played well against pressure (Allen is terrible with even a small amount of pressure). The questions on Stafford were on his decision making/gunslinger attitude. Rosen is a much better comparison to Stafford IMO. Josh Allen is like Kyle Boller.

 

Haha this is exactly what people used to say about EJ. Word for word. I hated when we picked him too. Any time a QB is being touted for his "physical tools" you know he is a 2nd round project at best.

 

Your comments about Stafford are revisionist history:

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matthew-stafford?id=79860

 

"Sloppy footwork. ... Will get lazy and throw off his back foot, which could lead to turnovers in the NFL... ... Willing to throw into tight spots, though more often than not he places the ball where it needs to be... ... Not great accuracy on crossing routes. ... Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch."

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/118342-nfl-combine-analysis-matthew-stafford

 

"When Stafford is “on” there are few quarterbacks who can take over a game the way he does."

"Although Stafford can be brilliant at times, he has been known to be plagued with inconsistency, a trait that cannot be masked in the NFL."

"

He has so much potential and is so physically gifted that at times he seems to try to play above his potential. While this is a concern for some scouts, others argue that all of the greats have some of this in their DNA.

Let’s not kid ourselves. Matthew Stafford has a cannon for an arm! The kid has his question marks attached, but so does every budding star.

Much of his future in the NFL will depend on what other offensive weapons are around him. Right now the Detroit Lions seem to be the most probable landing spot for the Bulldog quarterback and that is not good news for him."

 

 

[JohnC]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I like Mahomes better than I like Allen. Mostly because he can throw on the run and I think his deep ball is much more accurate than Allen's. When Allen moves his feet his ball placement is terrible. I see him as being an all time bust if he goes in the top 5.

 

And I think Mahomes will bust because he isn't accurate enough on the common throws every QB needs to make. I agree KC did the right thing sitting him his whole rookie year. I am less sure that they did the right thing jettisoning Alex Smith and forcing Mahomes into the starting role. Smith was one of the best QBs in the NFL at pushing the ball down the field last year. He had the #1 passer rating on deep throws. That's supposed to be Mahomes's strength but it's incredibly unlikely that he'll do better than Smith did. I think it will blow up in their face but we'll see.

Just think if the Bills would have drafted either Mahomes or Watson last year? This upcoming draft would be exciting not for the unending discussion about a qb but for the expected infusion of players with the added picks. In my view the rebuilding process would have been accelerated instead of delayed for the never-ending quest to find a franchise qb. The "what if" debates can be gut wrenching. 

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Your comments about Stafford are revisionist history:

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matthew-stafford?id=79860

 

"Sloppy footwork. ... Will get lazy and throw off his back foot, which could lead to turnovers in the NFL... ... Willing to throw into tight spots, though more often than not he places the ball where it needs to be... ... Not great accuracy on crossing routes. ... Too often leads his receivers too far or forces them to reach back, slowing their momentum and limiting their ability to generate yardage after the catch."

 

Look at the bold. "More often than not" he had good ball placement. That is absolutely not the case with Josh Allen. Look at Stafford's strengths from the same profile:

 

Blessed with a stronger and more accurate arm than many current NFL quarterbacks... Efficient footwork and depth on his drop from center. ... Quick to scan the field and go through his progressions ... Can make all the throws and shows power and toughness getting the ball deep even when defenders are closing and making contact. ... Consistent with excellent accuracy to all levels of the field. ... Consistent placing the deep out on the far shoulder of his receiver, away from the defender. ... Has good deep accuracy and trajectory. ... Lofts the ball high enough to allow his receiver to run under it.

 

You won't find any scouting report of Josh Allen that reads like this. Stafford's accuracy is brought up as a positive; Allen's is always a negative. His positives are exclusively tied to his physical traits.

[HappyDays]

27 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Just think if the Bills would have drafted either Mahomes or Watson last year? This upcoming draft would be exciting not for the unending discussion about a qb but for the expected infusion of players with the added picks. In my view the rebuilding process would have been accelerated instead of delayed for the never-ending quest to find a franchise qb. The "what if" debates can be gut wrenching. 

 

If we had drafted Mahomes we'd have a total unknown getting ready to start for a team with one of the worst receiving corps in football. If we had drafted Watson we'd have a guy who showed promise, but also had the 3rd worst INT rate among starting QBs and just tore his 2nd ACL in 4 years. The grass is always greener until you take a closer look.

[Jay_Fixit]

He’s tall and can throw far.

 

That’s all I got. Do I win?

[oldmanfan]

GIve me enough film and enough time to watch and pick through everything, and I can make every QB from Sammy Baugh on look either like the greatest of all time or a guy that couldn't make it in pee wees.

[thebandit27]

21 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Look at the bold. "More often than not" he had good ball placement. That is absolutely not the case with Josh Allen. Look at Stafford's strengths from the same profile:

 

 

 

 

You won't find any scouting report of Josh Allen that reads like this. Stafford's accuracy is brought up as a positive; Allen's is always a negative. His positives are exclusively tied to his physical traits.

 

Who cares how their respective accuracies are described? They're less than 1% different 

 

Are we really drilling down to phrasing at this point?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Don't take this wrong but....  I  tried to convince you Taylor wasn't that good and you still don't believe me 2 years after the fact 

 

soooo.....  

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Who cares how their respective accuracies are described? They're less than 1% different 

 

Are we really drilling down to phrasing at this point?

 

Earlier you said just going off of completion percentage is lazy. But now you're conflating completion percentage with accuracy. I don't care what Stafford's completion percentage was. EJ Manuel had a better completion percentage in college but clearly was less accurate than Stafford.

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Earlier you said just going off of completion percentage is lazy. But now you're conflating completion percentage with accuracy. I don't care what Stafford's completion percentage was. EJ Manuel had a better completion percentage in college but clearly was less accurate than Stafford.

 

You spoke to how each player's accuracy was described; my point is that I don't care how it's described.  Both players faced accuracy questions coming out of school.

 

As for Allen's accuracy always being discussed as a negative, well, that's not true.

 

Take, for example, Daniel Jeremiah's opinion on him:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000919918/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2018-nfl-draft-20

"He generates outrageous velocity and can squeeze the ball into very tight windows."  Sounds very similar to Stafford.

 

And then there's Lance Zierlein:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/josh-allen?id=2560029

"Prototype frame for pocket passer. Sturdy base allows him to shake off sacks and extend plays. Rare arm strength and overall arm talent. Has variety of release points if needed. Can uncork suddenly when it breaks open. Able to thread the needle with a rocket launcher. Makes throws that no other quarterback in college can make. Excellent thrower of deep outs. Able to outpace safeties to deep sideline throws. Aggressive pump-fakes open double moves. Turns into competent traffic director when scrambling. Can roll right and fling it down the field with impressive velocity and placement. Asked to read the entire field. No throw is too challenging. Has arm strength and mobility to create explosive plays when play goes off-schedule. Ability to challenge safeties over the top could help running games. Attacks intermediate windows with pretty good precision when allowed to sit down in the pocket. Has experience under center and operating in play-action passing attack. Willing to pull it and move the chains with his legs. Has experience in poor weather."

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

You've shown a few examples of good throws. I'm talking about the overall trend. I could go find that Eliot Crist Twitter thread, it's pretty open and shut. He will not suddenly fix his terrible ball placement and decision making when the game is moving 10 times faster. It's never happened before. I have to think that if Mahomes and Allen bust we'll stop seeing these kinds of QBs get drafted high.

As I have said elsewhere repeatedly, if people aren't factoring in where Allen played (the least populated state in the country that is in the middle of nowhere and has a black population of less than 1 percent) and the bad state of the program before he became starter, they aren't analyzing. 

[Mark Vader]

I can't.

 

Can you convince me that all of these QB's in this years draft won't suck?