Previously the "Convince me Allen won't suck" thread, now the... "you're welcome" thread

[r00tabaga]

He won't be there at #12 but if he was I think they take him. He killed at the Senior Bowl week and has loads of talent. Accuracy issues aside, he is "built" for Buffalo weather. 

[Mickey]

None of these guys are a sure thing and assessing their talent and potential based on numbers alone is to cook a cocktail of contradictions. The same folks who give short shrift to Allen's numbers in terms of height, arm strength, 40 time etc., seize on another number, his completion percentage, and proclaim him a third rounder at best. I've watched as much tape on these guys as my real life will allow and honestly, there is a lot to love and to hate about all of them. I think overall that Darnold is probably the best of the lot. Yes, he turned the ball over a lot this year but the year before, not so much. I think Mayfield might be the least risky of all of them in that he scores well on everything but height. Rosen is like a glass of cold, fresh, milk. Nothing to rave about, nothing to complain about. And Allen has lots of potential but not much production. High ceiling, low floor, the riskiest choice of the bunch. Jackson will make some great plays, plenty of not so great plays and has a high risk for serious injury.

 

We aren't going to get a shot at Darnold or Rosen given our current draft position. We might have a shot at Mayfield though its likely he is gone by the third pick. I think we might have the ability to get high enough for either Jackson or Allen and I couldn't be less excited about that choice. I am not crazy about either. If we can't get Mayfield, Darnold or Rosen, I wouldn't be terribly sad if we passed on a first round QB and instead took Rudolph or White in the second.

[Elite Poster]

1 hour ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Allen's success will come down to coaching. Andy Reid would do amazing things with him as a QB. 

 

That can be said for many players. Draft position is based on potential, not college production. 

 

He 'potentially' has to fix his accuracy issues.

[CaptnCoke11]

46 minutes ago, 8-8 Forever? said:

Give me Lamar Jackson. 

Wait.. he’s the next Tyrod right?  

 

Well according to the brilliant minds on here he is 

[LEBills]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Seriously.

 

I know that people here really believe in him... why?

 

Plenty of past NFL players have been drafted for physical potential (Ryan Leaf, RG3, Jamarcus Russell, Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, etc) and have simply flamed out. 

 

I've never seen a college QB so devoid of college production being propped up this much based off of what I can only believe to be purely physical potential.

 

It's head scratching and infuriating because this guy looks like a project 2nd or 3rd round QB at best, to me.

 

What are people focused on? Throws he can make??? Haven't we had enough of these project QBs that are "balls of clay" for us to mold?

 

There's something I'm missing.

 

What is it?

 

I know there isn't a single QB in the NFL HOF with his forgettable production from a second-rate college football program like Wyoming. Is he supposedly going to break that trend?

 

What the hell... someone explain this to me so I can get behind him sooner rather than later if we draft him...

 

 

hopefully, we don't.

 

 

I endorse Josh, but this does not mean he doesn’t have things to work on. Keeping that in mind...

 

Allen was lightly recruited out of high school. He played QB at his rural town in California but also spent much of the year playing basketball and baseball. That is, when he wasn’t helping his family lay irrigation pipes on his farm. Unlike most of the other QBs in this draft, he did not go through the QB camp circuit. Allen went into college as a player who was not developed.

 

Allen was spurned by his favorite team, Fresno State (along with every other major school) and so decided to take a year at JUCO. After which, he sent his highlight tape around to all the Div-1 schools. For whatever reason, Wyoming was the only school to offer him a scholarship as a QB.

 

Josh came to WYO in Coach Bohl’s second year on the job. Coach Bohl coached North Dakota State where he had another big QB named Carson Wentz. Both Wentz and Allen had issues with their footwork coming out of college. Bohl is not a good QB developer, but pretty good at picking late blooming QBs. 

 

Wyoming was bad for Bohl’s first two years until a sophomore QB named Josh Allen entered the starting lineup. Wyoming went from out of bowl contention to 8 wins, with a shot at the conference crown after knocking off perennial power Boise St. in the regular season. (WYO would lose the championship game).

 

Allen returned for his junior year with a much younger team. More was put on Allen to make things happen, to call protections and be an overall leader of the team. Allen struggled early against Div1 opponents but dragged Wyoming to several wins. Then, as Wyoming felt the team was starting to gel, Allen went down with an injury. Wyoming proceeded to lose its next two games, including to San Jose St, one of the worst teams in Div1 that year.

 

Allen returned and led Wyoming to a win in its bowl game. Next, Allen went to the Senior Bowl and was up and down in practice before doing well in the game. Allen then went to the combine and displayed his great arm, much better mechanics (after only a few months of good training from a QB coach) and was described by scouts as the alpha of the quarterbacks there. We will get to see Allen at his pro day on Friday to see if his throwing continues to take a Cam Newton pre draft trajectory with all the work he has put in.

 

Allen is a ball of clay that will not reach his potential - if at all - for a few years. And that is scary.

 

I believe in the kid as I think he is just being taught how to play the QB position right. We saw what Wentz was able to do with excellent coaching and Allen has that same work ethic.

 

His completion percentage in college was not good. Some of that was on Allen, some on his system and some on his supporting cast. But Allen was WYOs offense last year. His arm made it very tough for defenses as they had to cover the entire field at all times.

 

With Allen, it is all projection. Some don’t have the stomach for it at such a premium position. But unlike some other big arm QB duds, Allen has a great work ethic, is a fiery competitor and is a good person.

 

It’d be nice to take him later and develop but for QBs with that skill set and personality, sometimes you have to draft high and expect that your coaching will reap the rewards it did for Philly with Wentz...que tl;dr

[bmur66]

If we don't move up and he is there at 12, we better grab him or it will haunt Bills fans for a long time. Maybe

[oldmanfan]

Who knows if he'll stink or not.  The slam against him is accuracy, but the limited time I saw him in the Senior Bowl he looked pretty good.  And I guess he was great at the combine for all that's worth.

 

I'd love to watch every throw he made last year, and see what part of his completion misses were truly inaccurate vs. receivers dropping balls, miscommunication, etc.

[Woodman19]

Maybe he should have incorporated more screen plays to pad his completion percentage, then his accuracy would suddenly be better...

[HappyDays]

53 minutes ago, Mickey said:

Jackson will make some great plays, plenty of not so great plays and has a high risk for serious injury.

 

Not saying this is you, but there's a bunch of people who want to trade up for Rosen and also think that Lamar Jackson is an injury risk. That's the definition of irony.

[mjt328]

I've watched several of his games, and I also think Josh Allen is a long-shot for success in the NFL.

 

Another poster said he "accuracy is overblown."  No it's not.  It's absolutely terrible, and his passes are all over the place.

His pocket presence is also pretty bad.  He's very athletic, but when pressure comes, he has no sense for how to get away from it.

He plays in an NFL-style system, but doesn't do a good job of moving through his progressions.  So it doesn't really matter.

 

The bottom line is... If someone drafts Allen, they are basically starting with an empty shell.  All of the physical attributes are there.  But he possesses none of the natural instincts of playing the position.  You have to fix his mechanics.  You have to fix his accuracy.  You have to fix his pocket presence.  You have to teach him playbooks and how to read a defense.  This is a long-term project.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

1 hour ago, LittleJoeCartwright said:

 

Brett Favre.  His stats at Southern Mississippi weren’t that impressive, yet he was drafted in the 2nd round.

 

The NFL has changed 8 times since then

[DCOrange]

There's simply no way to convince someone that Allen won't suck because there is plenty of potential for him to.

 

But for a fan base that has had roughly an average QB for the past few years and decided that they're sick of average, I find it kind of odd that so many want to avoid taking one of the 2 or 3 QBs that has a legitimate shot at being an elite QB.

[Teddy KGB]

He sucks.     

[FeelingOnYouboty]

12 minutes ago, Woodman19 said:

Maybe he should have incorporated more screen plays to pad his completion percentage, then his accuracy would suddenly be better...

 

You can tell who actually watches games and who doesn't. He misses spectacularly on routine screens and dumps into the flat. Just wach him v Hawaii 

 

1 hour ago, elltrain22 said:

Ok, this is my best shot....

 

Truth be  told, I was just like you 2 weeks ago. Hated, and was very spiteful about the Bills possibly drafting  Allen. When all  these rumors surfaced about Allen, I did research. I  watched  Matt Waldman's scouting report video (about 35 minutes long).  I also watched many of his games, along with Carson  Wentz whom is his  most compared player. I came away with this....

 

• Cannon for an arm!! That ball rockets out of  his  right arm with ease. He can  make  some amazing throws!! Sidelines, touch passes, short stuff, deep balls, over the middle, you name it, and he can do it!
• His accuracy is overblown IMO. Is he as accurate as Mayfield, heck no. But, his receivers were not very good, and dropped alot of his passes, and I think alot of throws he threw incomplete were caught if he played for Oklahoma or USC. 
• He can  really make plays with his feet. He is very good in  RPO's and read  option situations.
• He's a humble, hard-working, and determined young man that I  think will be a great leader in  the locker room
• If he has good coaching & development, he could easily be the best QB of  this class
• Watch some of his 2016 game film where he  has a little bit better talent around  him,  and  you'll see flashes of brilliance

I still am team Rosen/Mayfield, and thats who I hope we draft, but I like the idea of Allen, and if he's the one, I'll be excited and trust in our FO

 

Why do people keep clinging to this narrative that Josh Allen's teammates let him down.

 

Target drop passes percentages:

Lamar Jackson – 8.5%
Baker Mayfield – 8.0%
Josh Rosen – 7.5%
Mason Rudolph – 6.6%
Josh Allen – 4.8%
Sam Darnold – 4.3%

 

Look at Lamar Jackson who gets killed for his accuracy issues and look at Josh Allen who people think will magically fix his when he gets to a tougher league than whatever the heck conference Wyoming is in

Edited March 22, 2018 by FeelingOnYouboty

[thebandit27]

First, ask yourself why you believe that he won't.  It's extremely likely that the answer is going to come down to one thing: you don't like his completion percentage.

 

I say this because I haven't seen many folks say anything beyond that.  Usually it's not that succinct though; the detractors will say utterly ridiculous things like "he can't hit the broadside of a barn", which right away tells me that they haven't watched a lick of football from the kid.

 

Why can he succeed?  Well, let's start with the embarrassingly obvious: he's easily the most physically talented QB in the draft.  Huge arm, good athlete, extremely hard worker, and a clean kid off the field.  You can't ask for a lot more than that as a starting point.

 

Then you start to dig into what he does after the ball is snapped, and you see that he keeps plays alive when he's under pressure, is able to keep his eyes downfield, keeps communication with his targets when scrambling, and has a unique ability to challenge defenses over the top when on the move--that's the kind of thing that can't be defended.  For example:

 

 

You'll also notice that he makes pre-snap reads like a pro, and is asked to read the whole field, and not the half-field hi-lo type reads to which other QBs (Darnold) are limited.

 

You want to talk accuracy?  I'll talk accuracy with you no problem.  I think people get way too hung up on completion percentage.  I am more interested in knowing if they've actually watched Allen face teams like Iowa, and saw how he threw the ball.  I also want to know if the same folks were aware that Allen competed against 3 teams that finished in the top-20 pass defense in FBS in 2017 (Air Force, Utah State, and Central Michigan--and in those games he completed 72.7%, 69.2%, and 57.9% of his passes, respectively.

 

You want to see a kid that can pinpoint the ball, observe:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I've got more:

 

 

 

 

And this one...are you kidding me?

 

 

 

And for my final piece of evidence, I present this play.  The next time someone tells you that this kid sucks, show them this play, and ask them to show you a better play from someone that "doesn't suck":

 

 

^and this one came against Utah State, a team that ranked 19th in all of FBS in pass defense.

Edited March 22, 2018 by thebandit27

[DCOrange]

8 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

You can tell who actually watches games and who doesn't. He misses spectacularly on routine screens and dumps into the flat. Just wach him v Hawaii 

 

 

Why do people keep clinging to this narrative that Josh Allen's teammates let him down.

 

Target drop passes percentages:

Lamar Jackson – 8.5%
Baker Mayfield – 8.0%
Josh Rosen – 7.5%
Mason Rudolph – 6.6%
Josh Allen – 4.8%
Sam Darnold – 4.3%

 

Look at Lamar Jackson who gets killed for his accuracy issues and look at Josh Allen who people think will magically fix his when he gets to a tougher league than whatever the heck conference Wyoming is in

 

Dropped passes are obviously a big deal, but it's important to consider the fact that a contested catch that gets dropped doesn't go down as a drop. This is important for two reasons in this case:

 

1. The offensive system that Wyoming uses naturally doesn't create as many openings as offenses at Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, UCLA, etc. do.

2. Wyoming's WRs had a lot of issues with creating separation in general. For example, one of his earlier games, maybe against Hawaii, his WRs dropped like half of his passes, but I would bet that most of them weren't counted as drops because he was threading the needle to WRs that weren't very open.

 

This isn't to suggest that we should ignore all of the red flags with Allen and that he'll definitely be good, but simply pointing to drop percentage doesn't give you the complete picture of the quality of the WRs.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

First, ask yourself why you believe that he won't.  It's extremely likely that the answer is going to come down to one thing: you don't like his completion percentage.

 

I say this because I haven't seen many folks say anything beyond that.  Usually it's not that succinct though; the detractors will say utterly ridiculous things like "he can't hit the broadside of a barn", which right away tells me that they haven't watched a lick of football from the kid.

 

Why can he succeed?  Well, let's start with the embarrassingly obvious: he's easily the most physically talented QB in the draft.  Huge arm, good athlete, extremely hard worker, and a clean kid off the field.  You can't ask for a lot more than that as a starting point.

 

Then you start to dig into what he does after the ball is snapped, and you see that he keeps plays alive when he's under pressure, is able to keep his eyes downfield, keeps communication with his targets when scrambling, and has a unique ability to challenge defenses over the top when on the move--that's the kind of thing that can't be defended.  For example:

 

 

You'll also notice that he makes pre-snap reads like a pro, and is asked to read the whole field, and not the half-field hi-lo type reads to which other QBs (Darnold) are limited.

 

You want to talk accuracy?  I'll talk accuracy with you no problem.  I think people get way too hung up on completion percentage.  I am more interested in knowing if they've actually watched Allen face teams like Iowa, and saw how he threw the ball.  I also want to know if the same folks were aware that Allen competed against 3 teams that finished in the top-20 pass defense in FBS in 2017 (Air Force, Utah State, and Central Michigan--and in those games he completed 72.7%, 69.2%, and 57.9% of his passes, respectively.

 

You want to see a kid that can pinpoint the ball, observe:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I've got more:

 

 

 

 

And this one...are you kidding me?

 

 

 

And for my final piece of evidence, I present this play.  The next time someone tells you that this kid sucks, show them this play, and ask them to show you a better play from someone that "doesn't suck":

 

 

 

My bad Josh Allen is actually an accurate QB and everyone else is wrong. Let's add that to his list of strengths.

 

SIZE

ARM

ATHLETIC

GOOD KID

ACTUALLY ACCURATE AND IS SO HUMBLE HE POSTED A 57% COMPLETION PCT SO HE DOESN'T INTIMIDATE THE COMPETITION

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

My bad Josh Allen is actually an accurate QB and everyone else is wrong. Let's add that to his list of strengths.

 

SIZE

ARM

ATHLETIC

GOOD KID

ACTUALLY ACCURATE AND IS SO HUMBLE HE POSTED A 57% COMPLETION PCT SO HE DOESN'T INTIMIDATE THE COMPETITION

 

Congrats on defaulting to a lazy argument instead of considering the point of the post.  Does his completion percentage need to improve?  Yes.  Can it?  Absolutely; guys do it all the time in the NFL.  Josh McCown was a 51% passer in college; he completed 67% of his passes last year.

 

What I want to know is if you actually watched the kid?  When does he have accuracy issues?  When he's under immediate duress, and when his footwork gets leaky trying to rush the ball to the perimeter--are those fatal flaws, or can they be corrected?

 

Let's go man, put a reasonable argument together that doesn't amount to "COMPLETION PERCENTAGE!!1!!1!1!!"

 

Are we really condemning the kid to doom because he was 1% less accurate in college than Matthew Stafford and 3% less accurate in college than Carson Palmer?

Edited March 22, 2018 by thebandit27

[dave mcbride]

One thing to factor in: before the last two seasons, Wyoming was a 2-3 win team. He is the ONLY reason they became an 8-win bowl team 2 years in a row.  Their talent pool is terrible, partly because a) no one lives in Wyoming and b) it is really far from everywhere except Colorado. It is hard to get city kids to go there (and harder than, say, Boise State, which is closer to the west coast and is in an actual city with a decent number of humans in it). They did NOT have good skill players while he was there.

 

Are people aware that Wyoming, which is really damn cold, is the LEAST populated state in the US? It has fewer people than the District of Columbia too.

Edited March 22, 2018 by dave mcbride

[DCOrange]

17 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Long post that I don't want to duplicate all the highlights of

 

I'm not sure that this is proof that he's consistently accurate, but thanks for showing us some of the highlights. All the film I've watched has been the complete game film, but seeing some of his highlights all together like that is so much fun. Simply put, on his good days, he can make throws that no other QB in this draft class would even attempt to make, for better or worse.

Edited March 22, 2018 by DCOrange