Previously the "Convince me Allen won't suck" thread, now the... "you're welcome" thread

[Royale with Cheese]

I feel a little better about the pick but not anywhere near confident in him....yet.

It's still going to take me awhile to get warmed up to him but at least I still don't have that stinging feeling like I had Thursday night.  Baby steps.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

13 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

I guess that's not including the racist/white supremacist leanings, am I right?

 

 

 

Don't be an idiot.

 

[Domdab99]

12 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

) 
 

 

Well this just went into my gif bank...I will be using it a lot! 

[HappyDays]

28 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

I guess that's not including the racist/white supremacist leanings, am I right?

 

 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

18 hours ago, billspro said:

 

Those are actually pretty similar. Especially yards, YPA, and TDs. The only difference is completion percentage. You have to remember though Wentz had a much easier job playing for a dominant div 2 program. 

Yep and a very dominant one at that

[racketmaster]

1. Scouts like Allen more than pundits and fans. In addition to game tape, scouts are the ones that have access to the most information (interviews, medical, whiteboard, teammate interviews, coach interviews, background investigations etc.).

2. Rare combination of size and mobility. Cam was a little more athletic and powerful as a runner, but Allen is not that far off. Both are good in short yardage situations and Allen may have a little better ability to shrug off defenders while Newton has a little more explosiveness. Not exact players physically but they are similar and the Bills are right to see a little of Newton in Allen when watching the tape.

3. Rare arm strength. Also very similar to Newton but I believe Allen’s arm is even stronger. Arm strength comparisons are Favre, Elway and Stafford. Having this arm strength allows Allen to throw to all parts of the field and he will be less impacted by windy conditions.

4. Ability to throw off platform. Allen can make off platform throws such as jump passes and passes with defenders hanging on him. He is very accurate on throws while running to his right. He makes elite level throws while on the run to his right but has also made some exceptional throws while going left.

5. Has taken snaps from under center and has operated in a pro-style offense.

6. Accuracy is not where it needs to be but is better than his completion % indicates. Allen operated in an offense that asked a lot of him. He was asked to make difficult throws to wrs who rarely got separation. There were few rb screens, bubble screens and quick game throws in the offense. Allen does have a few throws in most games that are just off target, sometimes even easier throws. But for the most part he is extremely accurate with intermediate throws across the middle and at the sidelines. One other area he could improve upon is the pace of his throws. Taking off some velocity on shorter throws could help and I think this can be developed.

7. Smart. Highest wonderlic score (37) out of the top prospects.

8. Solid character. Tweets aside, Allen is well liked by his teammates and coaches. There have been no off field issues with Allen. Tweets were when he was 15 years old and context is important considering there were 4 controversial tweets out of 9,000.

9. Excellent work ethic. Coming from a farm his work ethic is as what you would expect. Dedication and desire to improve will not be an issue.

10. Tough and Competitive. Allen has a hard time giving up on plays, sometimes to his own detriment. He likes to be physical as a runner and will take on lbs and dbs. He needs to dial this back a little to save his body as this is how he injured his shoulder in 2015. Allen shrugs off defenders and frequently finds ways to extend plays. He will not go down easily and it frequently takes several defenders to bring him down (see Iowa game 2017). He will chase down defenders after throwing a pick (similar to Luck) and will try to take a serious shot at them (see Nebraska game 2016). He needs to be smarter to save his body but you can tell he does not want to lose and losing bothers him on the field of play.

11. Excellent Hand size and experience playing in colder weather. He has played in the snow and the conditions do not seem to bother him. Excellent hand size allows him to have more control over the ball even in adverse conditions.

12. Threw 28 TD passes in 2016 when he had some better talent around him. This was his first year as a starter. So he did show some level of statistical success with better talent. 

13. Winner. Yes, I guess Allen did not dominate statistically or at least to the level that you would expect from a top pick. Allen was 16-9 as a starter the past 2 seasons at Wyoming. This may not seem impressive but the Wyoming program is generally awful. In the past 15 seasons, only 1 other Wyoming team reached 8 wins (2011). And the teams that predated Allen won 4,5,4 and 2 games in each of their seasons. That’s right, before Allen started the team won 2 games in 2015. When Allen did not play in 2017, Wyoming lost both games. Allen was the Wyoming team in 2017 and they were awful without him. So I would say Allen elevated his team as far as winning. 

Edited April 30, 2018 by racketmaster

[ngbills]

23 minutes ago, jkx2 said:

Jim Kelly's college completion % 56.5

Dan Marino's college completion % 57.6

Somehow as "horrendous" as these two quaterbacks were in college, they turned out to be pretty good pros.

 

What is hugely missing is the level of competition. Who and where they played. They played on and against the best teams in the county. They did not play at a JC and have those numbers. They won at a high level. Huge difference. 

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Exactly!!! 

 

I'll gladly take it for the team if it means Allen turns into a Franchise QB 

lol @ the new title.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

1 hour ago, joesixpack said:

 

Don't be an idiot.

 

 

 

more like thin skinned. I don't know what's worse, thin skin, or an idiot.

 

I'd say thin skin.

 

some have a hard time putting it in the past. kid was 16, posted stupid lyrics and such. he's manned up and made things clear. he will, whether some time this season or next, be the leader of this team and you can bet your bottom dollar, team mates, coaches and even most fans will forget all about his teenage antics.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

more like thin skinned. I don't know what's worse, thin skin, or an idiot.

 

I'd say thin skin.

 

some have a hard time putting it in the past. kid was 16, posted stupid lyrics and such. he's manned up and made things clear. he will, whether some time this season or next, be the leader of this team and you can bet your bottom dollar, team mates, coaches and even most fans will forget all about his teenage antics.

 

 

Don't be parsimonious.  Fella could always be a thin-skinned idiot

[meistersinger]

Part of the issue when discussing Allen versus the others is who is more ready today.  I expect that if all 4 guys are starting on opening day in 2018, Allen will look the worst of the lot, because he is simply not as polished.  But the Bills are looking further ahead - who will be the best QB on opening day of 2020?  There is no way of knowing for sure, of course, and it's possible they liked both Darnold and Mayfield better than Allen (we'll never know).  But it is very very possible that Allen will be the guy with the best long term future.  If Allen is the best long term guy, then I am thrilled with the pick.  If Rosen or Jackson or Rudolph has a better career than Allen then I will say we blew it.

 

[transplantbillsfan]

22 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Work ethic and determination coupled with his physical gifts and football gifts he was blessed with 

 

He makes throws that few, if any person alive can make 

 

You forgot smarts.  Football smarts, in particular.

 

Until this process played out, I didn't know how smart he was. 

 

From what I had heard and read and seen from the little I watched in games, it looked a whole lot like he would too often go places he shouldn't go with the football or would only get to his 1st or 2nd read before all hell breaking loose.  Having looked into things a bit more, I understand there's probably a lot more to that story.  That was maybe one of my biggest issues about the player himself.

 

But reports are he was fantastic at the whiteboard with NFL teams.  And we all know about his 37 on the wonderlic, which measures smarts in general, and aren't really football related.  But I think all that will really help him absorb the NFL game and get up to speed to the point where I'm starting to think he's already the favorite to start right away and may play pretty decently in his rookie year.

 

Here's hopin!!!

[transplantbillsfan]

So HappyDays posted this thread with a 30+ minute Matt Waldman film room breakdown:

 

 

Lots of exceptional breakdowns in here and Allen demonstrates he has the ability to be very well rounded. But there are 2 quotes that stand out to me as "highlights" or "scouting notes" inserted:

 

"Emotional IQ/Strategic Wisdom is what separates top franchise QBs--and it's the most difficult thing to teach in any industry!"

 

"Allen's on-field emotional IQ based on football behaviors has a lot of opportunity for growth and he'll be entering a league that is really hit or miss with training and development."

 

To me, the 2nd quote says Allen has some work to do with on-field wisdom and Emotional IQ. He points to a couple examples, particularly a play where he sees no coverage to one side of the field and instead of rifling it to his WR with his howitzer for a potential TD before any defender could reach him, Allen floats it in. Still a positive play. Still a 1st down. Could have been more.

 

But the thing is, based on the kid in terms of personal background, he seems to have the Emotional IQ and enough smarts to develop that strategic wisdom already.

 

In the end, that aspect of what Waldman talks about is the reason I have a decent amount of confidence Allen can succeed.

[Foxx]

47 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

So HappyDays posted this thread with a 30+ minute Matt Waldman film room breakdown:

 

 

Lots of exceptional breakdowns in here and Allen demonstrates he has the ability to be very well rounded. But there are 2 quotes that stand out to me as "highlights" or "scouting notes" inserted:

 

"Emotional IQ/Strategic Wisdom is what separates top franchise QBs--and it's the most difficult thing to teach in any industry!"

 

"Allen's on-field emotional IQ based on football behaviors has a lot of opportunity for growth and he'll be entering a league that is really hit or miss with training and development."

 

To me, the 2nd quote says Allen has some work to do with on-field wisdom and Emotional IQ. He points to a couple examples, particularly a play where he sees no coverage to one side of the field and instead of rifling it to his WR with his howitzer for a potential TD before any defender could reach him, Allen floats it in. Still a positive play. Still a 1st down. Could have been more.

 

But the thing is, based on the kid in terms of personal background, he seems to have the Emotional IQ and enough smarts to develop that strategic wisdom already.

 

In the end, that aspect of what Waldman talks about is the reason I have a decent amount of confidence Allen can succeed.

rut roh. i see you've turned the corner. it's all downhill from there. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 hours ago, Foxx said:

rut roh. i see you've turned the corner. it's all downhill from there. 

We're DOOMED!!!!! 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, Foxx said:

rut roh. i see you've turned the corner. it's all downhill from there. 

 

I said as soon as it happened I hope I didn't jinx us

 

I think I railed against him enough in the pre draft process to build up enough cache so he'll still be good moving forward even if I start liking him

[billspro]

20 hours ago, racketmaster said:

1. Scouts like Allen more than pundits and fans. In addition to game tape, scouts are the ones that have access to the most information (interviews, medical, whiteboard, teammate interviews, coach interviews, background investigations etc.).

2. Rare combination of size and mobility. Cam was a little more athletic and powerful as a runner, but Allen is not that far off. Both are good in short yardage situations and Allen may have a little better ability to shrug off defenders while Newton has a little more explosiveness. Not exact players physically but they are similar and the Bills are right to see a little of Newton in Allen when watching the tape.

3. Rare arm strength. Also very similar to Newton but I believe Allen’s arm is even stronger. Arm strength comparisons are Favre, Elway and Stafford. Having this arm strength allows Allen to throw to all parts of the field and he will be less impacted by windy conditions.

4. Ability to throw off platform. Allen can make off platform throws such as jump passes and passes with defenders hanging on him. He is very accurate on throws while running to his right. He makes elite level throws while on the run to his right but has also made some exceptional throws while going left.

5. Has taken snaps from under center and has operated in a pro-style offense.

6. Accuracy is not where it needs to be but is better than his completion % indicates. Allen operated in an offense that asked a lot of him. He was asked to make difficult throws to wrs who rarely got separation. There were few rb screens, bubble screens and quick game throws in the offense. Allen does have a few throws in most games that are just off target, sometimes even easier throws. But for the most part he is extremely accurate with intermediate throws across the middle and at the sidelines. One other area he could improve upon is the pace of his throws. Taking off some velocity on shorter throws could help and I think this can be developed.

7. Smart. Highest wonderlic score (37) out of the top prospects.

8. Solid character. Tweets aside, Allen is well liked by his teammates and coaches. There have been no off field issues with Allen. Tweets were when he was 15 years old and context is important considering there were 4 controversial tweets out of 9,000.

9. Excellent work ethic. Coming from a farm his work ethic is as what you would expect. Dedication and desire to improve will not be an issue.

10. Tough and Competitive. Allen has a hard time giving up on plays, sometimes to his own detriment. He likes to be physical as a runner and will take on lbs and dbs. He needs to dial this back a little to save his body as this is how he injured his shoulder in 2015. Allen shrugs off defenders and frequently finds ways to extend plays. He will not go down easily and it frequently takes several defenders to bring him down (see Iowa game 2017). He will chase down defenders after throwing a pick (similar to Luck) and will try to take a serious shot at them (see Nebraska game 2016). He needs to be smarter to save his body but you can tell he does not want to lose and losing bothers him on the field of play.

11. Excellent Hand size and experience playing in colder weather. He has played in the snow and the conditions do not seem to bother him. Excellent hand size allows him to have more control over the ball even in adverse conditions.

12. Threw 28 TD passes in 2016 when he had some better talent around him. This was his first year as a starter. So he did show some level of statistical success with better talent. 

13. Winner. Yes, I guess Allen did not dominate statistically or at least to the level that you would expect from a top pick. Allen was 16-9 as a starter the past 2 seasons at Wyoming. This may not seem impressive but the Wyoming program is generally awful. In the past 15 seasons, only 1 other Wyoming team reached 8 wins (2011). And the teams that predated Allen won 4,5,4 and 2 games in each of their seasons. That’s right, before Allen started the team won 2 games in 2015. When Allen did not play in 2017, Wyoming lost both games. Allen was the Wyoming team in 2017 and they were awful without him. So I would say Allen elevated his team as far as winning. 

 

This is a great post. I was going to make a new topic with similar thoughts. I think the last point is the most important point. That Wyoming team does not win more than 2 games without Allen on the team. I also think he is very accurate for the most part. I think his completion percentage is low because he looks for the big play rather than taking easy rhythm throws, having very bad WRs that don’t make plays on the ball, and having to throw the ball away a lot because the oline broke down or the WRs did not get open. I was more impressed than I thought I was going to be when I went back and watched his 2016 tape. He had some decent college targets that year at least.

[transplantbillsfan]

I think this video is worth a watch.  It's an interview from before last season:

 

Some interesting notes, particularly about why he may be so raw and playing at Wyoming:

 

- 3 sport athlete in HS

 

- Could throw a 92 mph fastball in baseball as a Senior.

 

-was just 5'10" and 150 lbs as a sophomore

 

-was 6'0" and 180 lbs as a junior

 

-was 6'2" and 185 lbs as a senior

 

 

Plenty of other interesting nuggets in here, though.