Previously the "Convince me Allen won't suck" thread, now the... "you're welcome" thread

[Thurman#1]

Tyrod's friend, It's still unclear what your main point is.

 

I asked before for two or three sentences that summarize. If you can do that, great, maybe a discussion can be had. If you can't, I'm not interested and I doubt anyone else is either.

 

From what little I can tell, your argument when summarized looks something like this: Quarterbacks can't improve their completion percentage and the way I know that is that there is nobody in league history who has ever improved their completion percentage after you throw out all the guys who improved early like Favre or guys who improved later in their career like Brees. In fact, for reasons that are completely unclear, I'm unwilling to accept anyone but guys who improved in a slow and consistent improvement throughout their career, a "sequential growth in accuracy".

 

Which is a stunningly ridiculous argument, only about the fact that you're simply unwilling to look at the guys who actually have improved. But perhaps I'm totally misunderstanding you. I honestly hope so. Again, in one or two sentences, can you explain your main point?

Edited April 16, 2018 by Thurman#1

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

I have been thinking the same way. The comparison to Wentz is laughable. Wentz was a winner in College on a team that usually went undefeated. Same QB coach, but different circumstances all together. I don't have allot of faith in Allen unless he is put into the perfect circumstance with the right Coach and allowed to sit and watch for a while. I do not want him in Buffalo even though he is supposedly a "cold weather" QB. I just see bust written all over him. His physical tools are off the charts, but mean very little if he doesn't have the mind for the game.

[Elite Poster]

17 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

 

fyp

 

What

[17 Josh Allen]

32 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:

So I moved to Denver, from Buffalo, in 2002 and almost immediately adopted Wyoming as my college team (pretty much because I think they have the best uniforms in sports).  Anyway I have ramped up my fandom in recent years and, at this point, am a pretty diehard fan.  In short, I have watched every game Josh Allen has played as a college QB.  I have driven up to Laramie to see them/him play four times (three times in 2016 and once last year).  Incidentally, they were 3-1 in those games and he played good to great in all of them.  The win against Boise State (who was undefeated and ranked in the teens at the time) in 2016 was one of the best football games I've ever attended in my life (the greatest comeback against the Oilers obviously being #1).  

 

So this is NOT a Josh Allen excuse thread, nor am I a Josh Allen "fanboy."  And full disclosure, I probably have him as the #2 or 3 QB on my board (you can call me a Mayfield fanboy if you want).  This is a thread containing FACTS for all the Biff from Tonawandas who think they suddenly know more about football than NFL scouts, analysts, GM's and coaches.  Just trying to dispel a lot of disinformation floating around.  

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

Josh Allen "wasn't good" in college: FALSE

 

The 2016 Wyoming squad was loaded with offensive talent.  Literally five of their key offensive players were seniors who played with NFL teams into preseason last year and four are currently on NFL rosters.  That being said, it was Josh Allen's first year as a college QB.  With all of those guys as juniors the previous season, they went 2-10.  With Allen, they ended up 8-6 but were 8-3 before losing a meaningless game against New Mexico and then two nailbiters against San Diego State (MWC Championship game) and BYU (bowl game).  He was very good.  He went from an unheralded JuCo transfer to a guy being thrown around as the #1 pick in this draft halfway through his first college season.  Really ask yourself, Biff, if a guy could do that without being "good."  His completion percentage was lower than you might like but he had a propensity, especially in 2016, to throw the ball downfield A LOT.  For perspective, Brian Hill (now on the Bengals), played most every down, was second in the nation in rushing that year and is a very elusive back.  He had NINE RECEPTIONS ALL SEASON.  Ask yourself, if Hill caught 40 balls and Allen's completion percentage was 66% instead of 56% in 2016, would we even be having that conversation?  Even with his 56% completion percentage, he was named the 2nd team MWC QB (Brett Rypien, Mark's son, had better numbers, but few would argue Allen wasn't a more impactful player that year) as well as the MWC preseason player of the year going into 2017.  Not bad for not being good, huh?

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

Josh Allen had no weapons in 2017: TRUE

 

I was on here trying to tell anyone who would listen, prior to the 2017 season, that Josh Allen's numbers would be way down.  It's easy for you, Biff, to call that an excuse but here's a little perspective: he lost his top two running backs, his top two receivers, his tight end and his center (again, four of these guys are in the NFL now).  Their leading rusher went from a guy who finished 2nd in FBS to a freshman who was LITERALLY converted from a linebacker right before the season started.  They struggled a ton on offense in 2017.  Allen's numbers did not impress.  Anyone who follows Wyoming football could've told you that would be the case.  All of their skill position players were unheralded freshmen and sophomores playing their first college football games, save for two guys who played sparingly in 2016 and aren't very good (see: CJ Johnson's drop of a beautiful deep ball for a would-be TD against Iowa in week 1).  So when Biff is on here telling you that Josh Allen struggled against Iowa and Oregon, well, no s***.  Of course he did.  And you know what, as someone who follows the program, his attitude literally could not have been better all last season.  Not once did he even come remotely close to making an excuse for his numbers or complaining about the glaring lack of talent around him.  Oh yeah, Wyoming was 8-3 with Josh Allen in 2017 and 0-2 without him.  Oh yeah part 2, watch his three TD passes from the bowl game against Central Michigan and tell me how many PRO QB's make all three of those throws.

 

 

FACT CHECK: 

 

There is more to Josh Allen than his "strong arm" and "big hands": TRUE

 

Did you know that in addition to having the best arm we've maybe ever seen coming out of college football that Josh Allen is unbelievably strong, elusive, can juke and bowl over defenders, and makes throws on the run and across his body as well as any prospect I've ever seen?  Well that happens to be the case.  The Cam Newton comparisons are not crazy.  Watch his highlights from the first San Diego State game, the UNLV game from 2016- hell, before you go spouting off, watch a freaking highlight tape of the guy.

 

 

FACT CHECK:

 

The comparisons to JaMarcus Russell are beyond insulting: TRUE

 

Go on youtube.com and watch a video of former teammates talking about JaMarcus Russell skipping meetings, being utterly disengaged, eating copious amounts of s****y food to the point where he weighed in at 300 lbs., etc.  Also guessing JaMarcus Russell didn't score a 37 on the wonderlic.  Josh Allen is as good of a teammate and leader as you will find in the college football ranks.

 

 

Will all of this translate into him being a great pro?  I don't know.  I absolutely see the bust potential.  He is still unrefined.  He would be best-suited, in my opinion, going to a team like San Diego.  He absolutely has a gunslinger mentality.  But to all you Biff from Tonawandas out there, so sure of yourselves (God does this remind me of when half the board was mocking Carolina for taking Newton #1), I really, really hope you eat a fistful of crow and that you have the sacks to show up and admit you were wrong.  An acceptable stance is, "gee I'm not buying the Allen hype but if an NFL team sees it, I gotta think they know more than I do."  That's fair.  But the unbelievable levels of ignorance on this board, ie. "I wouldn't take him in the fifth round; I will no longer be a Bills fan if they take him, etc"... dude just give it a rest already.  PLEASE.  I am so over it.  At this point, I am so sick of hearing from the naysayers that I will be rooting for Josh Allen no matter who he gets drafted by, and that includes the Jets.  Not the Dolphins though.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

[Klaista2k]

My gut instinct tells me Allen will be better than people think.

 

Not saying he will be a Hall of Famer or anything but I just think he's going to end up being better than people think.

[transplantbillsfan]

On 4/16/2018 at 5:58 AM, buffalobloodfloridahome said:

I have been thinking the same way. The comparison to Wentz is laughable. Wentz was a winner in College on a team that usually went undefeated. Same QB coach, but different circumstances all together. I don't have allot of faith in Allen unless he is put into the perfect circumstance with the right Coach and allowed to sit and watch for a while. I do not want him in Buffalo even though he is supposedly a "cold weather" QB. I just see bust written all over him. His physical tools are off the charts, but mean very little if he doesn't have the mind for the game.

 

The comparison to Wentz, to me, is sad and desperate hope simply because of the similar offense they ran... while utterly neglecting production or success.

 

Simple FACT that can't be overlooked: Allen is being drafted purely because of his physical potential and almost entirely in spite of his actual production on the field.

 

Those guys have been historically overdrafted time and time again. And they're historically massive busts.

 

I don't wish it on Allen, especially if we (mistakenly) draft him. It's just what he's most likely to become.

Edited April 24, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The comparison to Wentz, to me, is sad and desperate hope simply because of the similar offense they ran... while utterly neglecting production or success.

 

Simple FACT that can't be overlooked: Allen is being drafted purely because of his physical potential and almost entirely in spite of his actual production on the field.

 

Those guys have been historically overdrafted time and time again. And they're historically massive busts.

 

I don't wish it on Allen, especially if we (mistakenly) draft him. It's just what he's most likely to become.

 

In summary: you started a thread asking folks to convince you of something that you are thoroughly opposed to being convinced of, and are vehemently arguing against.

 

You are also compounding the issue by stating opinions as facts.

 

So glad I participated

[17 Josh Allen]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Yeah, the Falcons should never have drafted Favre and the Packers should never have traded for him in hopes they could fix his accuracy.

 

His college career at Southern Miss:

 

1987 79/194, 40.7% for 1264 yards 6.5 YPA, 15 TDs and 13 INTs

1988 178/319, 55.8% for 2271 yards, 7.1 YPA, 16 TDs and 5 INTs

1989 206/381, 54.1% for 2588 yards, 6.8 YPA, 14 TDs and 10 INTs

1990 150/275 54.5% for 1572 yards, 5.7 YPA, 7 TDs and 6 INTs

 

1992 Green Bay 302/471, 64.1% for 3227 yards, 18 TDs and 13 INTs ...

  ... as a 2nd year NFL player

 

The point should be something along the lines of make sure you respect both the pluses and minuses and without emotion put in the work to figure out if your guy can improve in accuracy and the other important measures of being a good QB.

 

And you'd better be right.

 

 

You guys are wrong about Allen,  he is the next Farve. All you people saying he can’t increase his completion percentage are wrong. Many have. Stafford, Jim kelly and many more Including Farve. 

Edited April 24, 2018 by Thurmanator 12074

[prissythecat]

1 hour ago, Thurmanator 12074 said:

You guys are wrong about Allen,  he is the next Farve. All you people saying he can’t increase his completion percentage are wrong. Many have. Stafford, Jim kelly and many more Including Farve. 

 

Your definition of "Many" is actually more like the exception to the rule.   When you have to make multiple excuses for a QB's poor performance so early on,  it probably doesnt bode well for the guy's future in NFL.   Should be interesting to see though what happens with Allen. 

[Wsam4031]

On ‎3‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 4:00 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

Seriously.

 

I know that people here really believe in him... why?

 

Plenty of past NFL players have been drafted for physical potential (Ryan Leaf, RG3, Jamarcus Russell, Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, etc) and have simply flamed out. 

 

I've never seen a college QB so devoid of college production being propped up this much based off of what I can only believe to be purely physical potential.

 

It's head scratching and infuriating because this guy looks like a project 2nd or 3rd round QB at best, to me.

 

What are people focused on? Throws he can make??? Haven't we had enough of these project QBs that are "balls of clay" for us to mold?

 

There's something I'm missing.

 

What is it?

 

I know there isn't a single QB in the NFL HOF with his forgettable production from a second-rate college football program like Wyoming. Is he supposedly going to break that trend?

 

What the hell... someone explain this to me so I can get behind him sooner rather than later if we draft him...

 

 

hopefully, we don't.

 

At this point everyone of them have a 50 50 shot of being good and failing. Unfortunately nobody knows who is gonna be good and who is gonna suck. Put in the right environment and you can succeed, 6th round with no athletic ability Tom Brady goes on to be the best of all time. Jamarcus Russel, an athletic freak goes 1 to the raiders and falls flat on his face. History shows the higher you pick the better success rate but you can still hit on guys later. Whoever the Bills get personally ill get excited as I have in years before , even for guys that I didn't want the bills to draft, EJ and JP. All we can hope for is whoever we draft gets put into the right situation to succeed. Everyone has there own idea of who the best qb from this draft will be but think of it this way there is good reason all the smart football people are talking about allen in the first round, possibly 1. The guy played against 2nd tier talent in a bad conference but has all the tool to be great, in the right situation. You should get excited about him or anyone else the bills take because you are a fan of this team and as all of us, will get behind our guy because that's what we do as bills fans. If he sucks he sucks but we don't know until he gets to play in the nfl and we see. You should get excited because of the unknown of just maybe hes our Brady or Brees.

[17 Josh Allen]

31 minutes ago, Wsam4031 said:

At this point everyone of them have a 50 50 shot of being good and failing. Unfortunately nobody knows who is gonna be good and who is gonna suck. Put in the right environment and you can succeed, 6th round with no athletic ability Tom Brady goes on to be the best of all time. Jamarcus Russel, an athletic freak goes 1 to the raiders and falls flat on his face. History shows the higher you pick the better success rate but you can still hit on guys later. Whoever the Bills get personally ill get excited as I have in years before , even for guys that I didn't want the bills to draft, EJ and JP. All we can hope for is whoever we draft gets put into the right situation to succeed. Everyone has there own idea of who the best qb from this draft will be but think of it this way there is good reason all the smart football people are talking about allen in the first round, possibly 1. The guy played against 2nd tier talent in a bad conference but has all the tool to be great, in the right situation. You should get excited about him or anyone else the bills take because you are a fan of this team and as all of us, will get behind our guy because that's what we do as bills fans. If he sucks he sucks but we don't know until he gets to play in the nfl and we see. You should get excited because of the unknown of just maybe hes our Brady or Brees.

Totally agree with everything you said above. We need to swing for the fences and move up and draft a QB. 

[Teddy KGB]

Josh Allen will suck for a while.   

 

Might be good down the line 

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

In summary: you started a thread asking folks to convince you of something that you are thoroughly opposed to being convinced of, and are vehemently arguing against.

 

You are also compounding the issue by stating opinions as facts.

 

So glad I participated

 

Well, no one presented any convincing evidence.

 

I was hoping for it, though.

 

I'll still delude myself if we draft him, though

 

[HappyDays]

I wanted to revisit this thread because I've spent the past couple days convincing myself to like the pick. What I've landed on is his rawness. I know people like to use that term for any QB that is a physical specimen without having any of the position's cerebral traits. I think the term is overused. When people said EJ Manuel was "raw" what they really meant is that he was bad. He had been focused on football since his freshman year of high school, and he went to a top football program where he had world class coaching for 4 years straight. That's not raw.

I believe Josh Allen actually is raw. He only played football a couple years in high school and it wasn't his only focus. He played in junior college and then in the Mountain West. He had no professional training at any point, it's all been his natural abilities and whatever his coaches at Wyoming could show him. He finally got a few months of professional coaching from Jordan Palmer and suddenly he showed improvement at the Senior Bowl. If he can fix the cerebral aspects of the position through coaching he will be great. His best throws are simply incredible, only a few people in the NFL have his natural talent.

Edited April 29, 2018 by HappyDays

[transplantbillsfan]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

I wanted to revisit this thread because I've spent the past couple days convincing myself to like the pick. What I've landed on is his rawness. I know people like to use that term for any QB that is a physical specimen without having any of the position's cerebral traits. I think the term is overused. When people said EJ Manuel was "raw" what they really meant is that he was bad. He had been focused on football since his freshman year of high school, and he went to a top football program where he had world class coaching for 4 years straight. That's not raw.

I believe Josh Allen actually is raw. He only played football a couple years in high school and it wasn't his only focus. He played in junior college and then in the Mountain West. He had no professional training at any point, it's all been his natural abilities and whatever his coaches at Wyoming could show him. He finally got a few months of professional coaching from Jordan Palmer and suddenly he showed improvement at the Senior Bowl. If he can fix the cerebral aspects of the position through coaching he will be great. His best throws are simply incredible, only a few people in the NFL have his natural talent.

 

Thanks Hap... I thought about bumping this thread because I feel pretty much the way you do exactly. I just figured it'll be merged with the Josh Allen draft thread like my other more light hearted one was.

 

I'll admit my adamant feelings against Allen were primarily because these raw project QBs become Franchise QBs almost never.  But I spent the last couple days and most of draft night imbibing as much as I could on the kid. And honestly I think he stands a decent chance to be a Franchise QB because of how late a bloomer physically and, therefore, at the position he was along with the attitude he has, which is a healthy chip on his shoulder (unlike Rosen imo) along with the fact that he's actually maybe the smartest QB in this class. Props to a couple posters in this message board who have been really pumping him up if he works out.

 

Fingers crossed. 

[PearlHowardman]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

...he showed improvement at the Senior Bowl.

 

People keep pointing to Josh Allen's success in the Senior Bowl game.  The Senior Bowl game is a single event exhibition game. It's impossible to judge how good or bad any college player is in that game.

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Fingers crossed. 

 

Both hands.

[Mat68]

On 4/24/2018 at 3:35 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The comparison to Wentz, to me, is sad and desperate hope simply because of the similar offense they ran... while utterly neglecting production or success.

 

Simple FACT that can't be overlooked: Allen is being drafted purely because of his physical potential and almost entirely in spite of his actual production on the field.

 

Those guys have been historically overdrafted time and time again. And they're historically massive busts.

 

I don't wish it on Allen, especially if we (mistakenly) draft him. It's just what he's most likely to become.

Production?  Do you know what the Facts are?  In 15 more games Wentz threw for 49 more yards and 1 more Td.  

[HappyDays]

13 minutes ago, PearlHowardman said:

People keep pointing to Josh Allen's success in the Senior Bowl game.  The Senior Bowl game is a single event exhibition game. It's impossible to judge how good or bad any college player is in that game.

 

I know. But it's the only data point we have since his training with Palmer started. I wonder if the Bill's could just hire him to be his personal QB coach. I don't trust anyone on this staff to do it.

[Original Byrd Man]

On ‎3‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 4:04 AM, buffalo2218 said:

I'm not sold on him myself.The one thing that's stuck out to me is Beane liking McCaron's competitive nature. Only QB like that that I've seen in this draft is Mayfield. I think he has an edge over the other top QB prospects in that regard 

Maybe they liked Mayfield as well but he wasn't available.  All we can do is hope and support.

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Production?  Do you know what the Facts are?  In 15 more games Wentz threw for 49 more yards and 1 more Td.  

 

I've stated my piece. Allen's college production historically wouldn't warrant top 10 consideration. Those like him who have been drafted in the top half of the 1st round have failed consistently. You need to go back 39 years to Phil Simms to find a guy in this project QB underwhelming college production mold who went on to be a Franchise QB.

 

I'm over that argument. I think Allen very well could be a very unique case. And I'm certainly hoping he is